old55

We have the earliest pick in the draft of this year's finalists and apart from GWS, we have two before the rest. None of the other finalists have added anyone of major significance, outside ironically of Sydney with Grundy. Henry, Schultz, Ratugolea, Doedee, Adams - there's a reasonable chance that McAdam makes an equal impact, apart from Grundy. We haven't lost any best 23, only depth. As @Slartibartfast says, a third of the best 23 is young and has the scope for significant improvements and we don't have anyone on the brink of their career. It's reasonable to expect that we get an AFL contribution from a couple of Fullarton, Laurie, Howes, Sestan, Woewodin, D.Turner and AMW and depending who we select, from picks 6 and 11. The biggest risks we have are Clarrie and Gus, but we just have to ride the turbulence there. We weren't far off this year and with some modest luck would have won it. I'm optimistic.

They can both get involved and hold up yet another trade ...

Petty, JVR, Fritsch, McAdam, ANB, Pickett, Chandler/Spargo/AMW - that's 7.

There's two spots available for that group to make up 7 forwards. McAdam's tackle and i50 tackles are superior to both Chandler and Spargo.

Source: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats.html?year=2023 Kossie: Average tackles: 4.0, Average Tackles inside 50: 2.0 McAdam: 3.3, 1.4 Fritsch: 1.6, 0.6 McAdam is more than twice a good as Fritsch in this area and closer to Kossie figures.

Fwd locks: Petty, JVR, Fritsch, ANB, Kossie McAdam is probably competing with Smith, Chandler, Spargo and Laurie for the last two slots - I'd fancy him ahead of that group. Maybe AMW or even Sestan will surprise and jump up the order.

Yes you're right, sorry. I was thinking Fullarton cam for a F3rd.

We used the F2nd because we have 2 of them and only one F3rd. It means we can still trade our F1st.

Interesting to hear Tim Lamb confirm that we see pick 11 considerably more valuable than pick 14 and that's why we traded up. There must be a quality cliff somewhere after 11 and before 14 non northern-Academy and F/S players. He said we were confident of getting very good players at 6 and 11. Cal Twomey's September rankings: To 6: Reid, (Walter), Duursma, McKercher, Watson, Curtin, Sanders To 11: Caddy, (Read), O'Sullivan, (Croft), (Rogers), Murphy, Windsor, Wilson Following those sets through to 14 are (Leake), Hardeman, (McCabe), Tholstrup, De Mattia - that's 20 players altogether. Of course we may rate someone else in that top 11.

We can just take him in the PSD for free. Adelaide currently have 36 primary list players and 4 rookies. The maximum number of primary list players they can have is 38, so they currently only have 2 primary list vacancies. They currently have picks 10, 14 and 20. They actually need to lose a player to be able to use them all. There's no way they keep a list spot open for McAdam in the PSD so they can re-draft him. I hope they continue to be stupid and run the clock down on it and we get to keep the F2nd.

Right, 8pts for the Trophy, thanks

With that percentage difference, if we can beat both North and Freo we're home.

We currently have Harmes, Grundy, Hibberd, Jordon and Dunstan off the primary list and so far we have Fullarton on and a promise to upgrade D.Turner. We currently have 3 primary list spots available. I predict we move Melksham to the Rookie list to make 4 spots, add McAdam, 2 Draft picks and match a bid on K.Brown.

Tim Lamb on Gettable today specifically said that our recruitment team rates the players available at pick 11 significantly higher than those available at pick 14 and that's why we traded up. I'm sure this is taking into account that both picks will slide at least 2 spots on Draft night for GC Academy bids matched. We see a quality cliff somewhere in between that range.

How about Gunston + 30 to the Hawks for 63?

It's very fair but they seem very stupid.

What do you base your Petty return prediction on?

Or the PSD

Patience Grasshopper

He was so bad this year he had to drop himself to the VFL. Only fired against WC which means nothing.

McAdam, Fullarton and retaining Petty. JVR, Kossie and Chandler are young players who will improve. Petty and Fritsch missed significant parts of the season. Plenty of scope for optimism there. Which forward on the move have we missed out on. Schultz, Gresham, Chol, Burgess? Be still my giddy heart.

OK, I'll trade you 6, 11 and MFC F1st for 4 and Hawthorn's F1st. Bookmark it.

He said that JT thinks there's a big difference between 14 and 11 and we are confident we can get a very good player at 11 if that's the way it falls. That's pretty good information.

Thanks Chaser. Hawthorn's 4 + F1st is closest to the pin currently and hard to beat. The F1st will be a top 10 pick, Hawthorn won't play finals next year. WC could even on trade it for more early picks this year. Our 6 + 11 + F1st doesn't top it and neither does 2 or 3 plus 17 from North IMO.

Do you have a link to evidence that is the Hawthorn offer? They said they were in the market with pick 3 (as it was then before the McKay compo) and commentators said they'd need to add their F1st too, but I can't find any evidence where they actually offered pick 3 + F1st.