Standard Deviation

The stats may suggest it isn't an issue, but the fact is he was used in half back after being recruited and it didn't work out. My memory is hazy but I seem to recollect he was given a long period of time to adapt to the role, and when it became clear it wasn't going to happen the coaches moved him forward where he thrived (at least for a while). It was a few years back now, but I don't get the impression there's been any particular change in his playing style or mindset that would make a second go as a defender work out any better than the first.

I suspect you realise that the players you're using for comparisom were all higher picks than we'd be dealing with here in a draft that was not compromised and in which there was a lot of exposed form to make decisions on - none of which applies to the situation for this draft. If you think we're guaranteed a player of the quality of the three you mentioned from this, or even the same chance they'll be that quality, you should stay away from games involving probability. As has been noted by others, there are plenty of reasons we could consider moving ANB on - salary cap space, part of a larger deal for a player who fills a need or to trade up. But simply to pick a random player in the 40s (or wherever it slips to after all the compensation/academy/etcs) doesn't fill me with hope.

At the end of 2018 the club felt it had plenty of good strong marking forwards and let Hogan go, in 2019 and 2020 form drop offs/injury/players not coming on as expected mean we currently have a Demonland thread devoted to needing a gun forward. Now at the end of 2020 we're seriously considering trading/surrendering a quality inside mid 'cause we have plenty of inside mids. I can't help but wonder if Viney goes we'll be discussing which big-bodied mid we need to chase at the end of 2021. There's some assumptions that losing Viney will make Brayshaw a more consistent performer and that Harmes's problems are all about being played out of position - neither of which I'm particularly sold on. Also, we had a great run with injury this year and, if this came to an end with a few key mids being out I'm not sure Sparrow or others can step up. Unless the club were to turn this into a deal to sort out a major gap in our team like they did with May, I'm hoping we hang onto Viney.

Absolutely this. The draft is compromised and with the various academy and father sons around a mid to late 40s pick will be up close to the 60s. We would likely be delisting average players for draft picks whose ceiling will also be average, if they ever hit it. I'm all for some serious list changes, but going to the backend of the draft this year is the sort of optimistic thinking that'll net us another few wasted years.

I think Clarkson is nothing more than wishful thinking. You can talk all you like about how everyone is for sale, and making godfather offers but he's shown no sign of dissatisfaction at the Hawks, and they can clearly afford to outmatch any offer we make - I suspect they'd sack their entire football department before they'd lose him. We'd be more likely to entice Paul Roos back than have any chance of getting Clarkson. Lyon is realistic, and if he could get us back into the eight I think I could hold my breath and suffer through his "style". Another few losses and I might even start entertaining the idea of Brad S....no, I'm not ready for that yet.