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Standard Deviation

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  1. Think that was the AFL website's preseason predictions : https://www.afl.com.au/news/560486/crystal-ball-our-predictions-for-the-2021-afl-season-are-in
  2. I watched it on television, which might explain my different impressions, but I didn't think overuse of the hand ball was our fundamental problem here, kicking wasn't getting us anywhere either. The Footscray defence was very well drilled, which meant finding an uncontested mark or a good one on one was nigh on impossible in the 30 near goal, and they were playing a slignshot game - they clogged up our forward line to make it hard to find a target and then relied on moving it quickly and getting it out the back to score from pretty much point blank in broken play. It only came off for them about 25% of the time, but when it did it nearly always ended in a goal as we battered ourselves senseless against a brick wall. We had to fight the wind all day with medium range kicks whereas their goals tended to come from close in - I'm not sure their game plan would have held up on Etihad or in decent conditions, but on a windy day on a suburban ground it worked pretty well. The inside 50s count I doubt bothered their coaching box at all, they wanted as many of our players as they could get up the ground. Somebody with more tactical smarts than me (our coaches, perhaps?) would know how to combat this, but I suspect it's hard to adjust to on game day.
  3. You're entitled to your opinion, but there's whole massive threads devoted to arguments on Goodwin's, the club's and in some instances individual player's capabilities. There's literally one on the pressure being on Goodwin active right now, so why derail a training thread into another argument on this stuff? Is there a goal here, other than to provoke a response from one of the board's optimists? If you had a particular reason you thought the social media or the training exhibited in this thread was a problem for the club then go for it, but making generalistic statements about how good/bad Goodwin/the club/etc are should be left to the threads about them, otherwise you'll come across as trolling.
  4. I don't take this as a slight on Melbourne - he's chasing success by going with the club he thinks is closest to the pin. Hawks offer wasn't much different to Geelong's, plus the whole club loyalty aspect, and he turned his back on them too. Hawks supporters I know even seem to have think they were actually offering him more money than Geelong too (not sure how true that is). That said, I personally don't get his motivation. He's had success, he's got nothing to prove. Chase the paycheck or stay with your mates, but why move to Geelong just to look for a cheap flag to add to the collection?
  5. The stats may suggest it isn't an issue, but the fact is he was used in half back after being recruited and it didn't work out. My memory is hazy but I seem to recollect he was given a long period of time to adapt to the role, and when it became clear it wasn't going to happen the coaches moved him forward where he thrived (at least for a while). It was a few years back now, but I don't get the impression there's been any particular change in his playing style or mindset that would make a second go as a defender work out any better than the first.
  6. I suspect you realise that the players you're using for comparisom were all higher picks than we'd be dealing with here in a draft that was not compromised and in which there was a lot of exposed form to make decisions on - none of which applies to the situation for this draft. If you think we're guaranteed a player of the quality of the three you mentioned from this, or even the same chance they'll be that quality, you should stay away from games involving probability. As has been noted by others, there are plenty of reasons we could consider moving ANB on - salary cap space, part of a larger deal for a player who fills a need or to trade up. But simply to pick a random player in the 40s (or wherever it slips to after all the compensation/academy/etcs) doesn't fill me with hope.
  7. At the end of 2018 the club felt it had plenty of good strong marking forwards and let Hogan go, in 2019 and 2020 form drop offs/injury/players not coming on as expected mean we currently have a Demonland thread devoted to needing a gun forward. Now at the end of 2020 we're seriously considering trading/surrendering a quality inside mid 'cause we have plenty of inside mids. I can't help but wonder if Viney goes we'll be discussing which big-bodied mid we need to chase at the end of 2021. There's some assumptions that losing Viney will make Brayshaw a more consistent performer and that Harmes's problems are all about being played out of position - neither of which I'm particularly sold on. Also, we had a great run with injury this year and, if this came to an end with a few key mids being out I'm not sure Sparrow or others can step up. Unless the club were to turn this into a deal to sort out a major gap in our team like they did with May, I'm hoping we hang onto Viney.
  8. Absolutely this. The draft is compromised and with the various academy and father sons around a mid to late 40s pick will be up close to the 60s. We would likely be delisting average players for draft picks whose ceiling will also be average, if they ever hit it. I'm all for some serious list changes, but going to the backend of the draft this year is the sort of optimistic thinking that'll net us another few wasted years.
  9. I think Clarkson is nothing more than wishful thinking. You can talk all you like about how everyone is for sale, and making godfather offers but he's shown no sign of dissatisfaction at the Hawks, and they can clearly afford to outmatch any offer we make - I suspect they'd sack their entire football department before they'd lose him. We'd be more likely to entice Paul Roos back than have any chance of getting Clarkson. Lyon is realistic, and if he could get us back into the eight I think I could hold my breath and suffer through his "style". Another few losses and I might even start entertaining the idea of Brad S....no, I'm not ready for that yet.
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