Jjrogan

Collingwood had a percentage of 104 last year. Could easily miss in 2023 with a harder draw. Heck, take 2 goals off them last year, they would have missed and no one would be talking top 8 this year. It was a statistically freakish season. Caveat being that teenager who can play a bit will be even better. Sydney, though well coached, got pants-ed in a GF. The recent history on this isnt good. Hard to see but in hindsight it may be yea, they lost it mentally.

Hard to see them missing top 4. Much like mfc, the rest of the competition will be trying to work out how to beat them. Last year, they were 12-0 with a percentage of 200 in games they won uncontested posessions. They had a percentage of 114 and lost 4 games when they lost uncontested. Makes sense, list comprised of elite contested ball winners/markers and aging midfielders. Reckon to beat them have to be daring. Spread, run, carry, handball. Collingwood, basically. Er, not us.

If Jackson doesnt kick 40 plus goals they will be be mid table. Shades of MFC in 2019. Lost a key forward and even though have a young midfield group, they wont find the goals to save themselves. Simply not enough marking talent forward of centre. Ding Dong seems to think Jackson was played out of position and he should be up forward. If he's right (or Taberner has one out of the box) they'll be ok. But if he's wrong, a team that couldn't kick 10 goals in a game nine times last year aint going to be lighting up score boards. 7th to 12th and top 10 draft pick here we come.

In one's darkest moments, we can always close our eyes and think of Essendon's list and generational performance. Thank the maker.

Freo will go backwards. To make consistent top 4, you need consistent goal kickers. They just lost their highest with 36. Unless they find someone to kick 50+ theyll be no better than this year and will fall back to the pack with a harder draw.

Petty has shown absolutely nothing up forward except for taking some strong marks and kicking goals in late 2019 and then playing for the last 5 minutes of 2022 and taking strong marks and goal. Narrow minded coaching that it wasnt at least tried in 2022. When something isnt working you try things that might. I dont see how people can suggest its robbing peter to pay paul when it hasnt even been tested yet. Make that comment after the evidence is presented. Its ok to give it a shot and be wrong. Eg. Fritta at half back.

Certain teams were clearly tanking the trade period this year. So obvious. Imv the fixture is going to cause a lot of controversy when its released. Norf, Eagles, Hawks and Giants won 2 games between them in the last month of football and all of them have worst (or stagnant) lists heading into 2023. Playing only 1 of them twice v playing 3/4 of them twice will be worth 2 to 3 wins, which is huge.

Agree, but I personally temper the expectations of Grundy/Gawn and ruck dominance v clearances and wins. I can almost read now the gnashing of teeth when we a) win ruck taps b) dont win clearances c) dont win the game. Pies lost a game to the Lions winning the ruck taps 63 to 4, barely winning the clearances. Every team tries to be less 'predictable' but once the ball hits the ground its too random. Thats why tap ruckman aren't that valuable. Doggies, Lions have been the best clearances for 2 years. (Mfc 5th) Grundy's benefit will be around the ground where he's a genuine 4-quarter contested midfielder unlike present day LJ (and marking target through the corridor) and freeing up Gawn to clunk a few marks inside 50. Gawn will draw 2 defenders every time the ball is kicked forward into 50, he's simply too good one on one under a half decent kick. I think the duo is being undersold right now, its going to give opposition coaches and ruckman nightmares.

Speaking of pick 37. Harrison Petty says hi. Talent to be found around these picks for sure.

Just quietly, this is the best thread on the internets right now. People wanting to delete his existence ala eternal sunshine of a spotless mind and bitter and vengeful like an ex that scorned them. So good!!

Or in about 10 years time.

I agree. For a player worth 2 first round picks should be a consistent match winner. He is a fine prospect but i suspect we will spend the next 8 years of his career reading about what his best position is. I hope he thrives at Freo, but he isnt a generational ruckman. That guy is the current captain.

Martin Pike won 3 premierships with the Lions

4. Collingwood. If Jackson resigns with us (I doubt he'd go into the psd), the Pies are well and truly stuffed. They will have to hit any bid on Grundy. 🍿.

Think that far ahead? Melbourne had just won a premiership and were strong favourite to win it again this year. If he went to Freo end last year, imagine the bemusement and potential vitriol from the entire football world. And how exactly would he anticipate that Freo would finish top 6 and be offering perhaps a 2nd rounder less than what is probably fair. Pinning anything to Jackson here is utterly ridiculous.

Without any other assumption of player value it is the one the industry uses. There's a fair bit of historical data in it (although im not sure if points get revised yearly but perhaps they should) 2013 cripps went at 13 (boyd 1 kelly at 2) 2014 lever went at 14 (trac at 2) 2015 curnow went at 12 (schache at 2) 2016 jy sympkin 12 (taranto at 2) 2017 brayshaw at 2 clearly better than the early teens. Poor draft year 2018 Butters at 12. (Lukosios) In some years 2 was better, other years picks 12/13 + something else was. Its kinda 50,50. Like you say it depends on the draft year and if theu think its an even draft its a fair trade for Norf.

Yea I agree. We have a strong window for the next 5 years and Id take Aaron Cadman in a heart beat and throw the eggs into the basket. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but a shame we didnt opt for Mckay or Curnow or even Hipwood in the 2015 draft.

Because assuming Freo finish 6th next year, North would then be receiving pick 13, pick 13 and Logue for pick 1. Pick 13 + future pick 13 are equivalent of pick 2. So it would mean norf give out pick 1 for pick 2 and Logue... need to give something back. Fwiw, if you say Norf are stupid for doing this trade but if they did it, we should then take the pick 1 and split it up.... thats exactly what Norf is doing.... pick 1 is incredibly overvalued in most draft years (balances out in years where there is an out and out standout) This year its pick 2 anyway so I reckon it will get shopped around.

Their best player is 19yr old. Sure they'll fall back from the pack next year as the draw gets harder and they stop fluking wins but once he moves into the middle, they will build their game around him. He will be very cheap for a few years and will probably play for slightly unders to remain a Pie, enabling them to attract other talent.

I have no emotion of this thread except its telling me the likely odds. Lol. Like i said. Keep going.

This thread clearly. Ps the earth wont blow up tmw.

As the odds would suggest. Gutsy. Keep going

No it is diatribe. We were red hot last year and beat the best in amazing circumstances. That wont be repeated. We had a hard draw and finished 2nd. A well coached team beat us in the 1st final. We are not embarrassing. Whats embarassing is out supporters is expecting to be the ants pants week in and week out. Thats not how football or anything in life works quite frankly.

Unsubscribe. What diatribe

This is the dumbest thread on DL. Never has Melbourne been less than $ 2 to win the flag. Its like playing blackjack and saying I dont think the next card will be queen, king or an ace. You have the odds on your side when you say i dont think X can win. Real gutsy stuff lol.