ChaserJ

An article the Age ran last year looking at how Moneyball has been applied in the AFL. Interesting reading: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/moneyball-afl-clubs-search-for-hidden-gems-20111125-1nzbq.html#ixzz1fKS9sfCZ

I like it. That’s not too dissimilar to what Matt Rendell was suggesting the AFL do to prepare the indigenous kids from remote communities (round about the time he landed himself in hot water for saying something or the other about indigenous players…). Get them in early, get them into a program where they aren’t required to play straight away, but can be given time to adjust. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-20/rendell-racist-comment-throw-away-line/3900240 I just really like the concept of a young kid having a year to get up to speed in an AFL environment. Can’t see this happening, but perhaps this could be introduced in lieu of priority picks. If a team qualifies for a priority pick under the AFL’s new formula, they get given the best qualifying 17 year olds that they have to trade for commodities ala GWS and their mini draft picks. The side holding the picks can’t keep them but have to trade for either players or picks. If their unlucky enough not to have any clubs interested in trading with them, maybe then they can be compensated with an extra pick somewhere (at AFL’s discretion).

I personally lean toward Martin. Can’t remember seeing a kid with more talent and rounded skill set coming through the Championships. Does everything well, and a lot of things at an elite level. That said, Hogan would also be a great asset to our team. Apparently was very good again for Claremont’s Colts team picking up 24 touches, 2 goals and (I think) 7 marks alternating between ruck & forward. Both players fill an area of need and I believe we must have a real crack at securing a mini draft selection

Adelaide’s head of recruiting on the mini draft. He also discusses Adelaide’s approach to this draft in an associated article on the AFC website. http://www.afc.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/4417/newsid/144443/default.aspx

Would dance many a jig if we got that result. Wines, Toumpas or O'Rourke would be quality additions at 3. Read that Grundy had a good game for Sturt seniors, a few more from him could help the cards fall this way. What to do with pick 13, then?

Makes a bit of sense. Bit of money out West and they had money tucked away for Mitch Clark, but didn't get the deal done. Had money tucked away for Travis Cloke, but they're unlikely to get the deal done. They clearly want a big signing to state their intent and lift them up a cog. Ross knows what BJ can do (still don't know what he sees in Dawson though), and Freo see a window of opportunity while they still have Pavlich and Sandilands somewhere near their peaks. Reckon you're on to something.

Wow, fair bit to keep to keep track of. There happens to be a 11 day overlap between free agency period and trade period. My head might explode trying to work out scenarios. At what point is a restricted free agent officially unattached? Commencement of free agency period I presume?

It’s been reported that we’re heavily into Martin (along with GC, the Bulldogs, Freo & Geelong), and GC getting the win against Port could have been a great help for us. They are the only ones who could trump us with an offer to GWS. If GC finish 2nd, I think it’s almost certain they will flip that pick (2) to GWS for 1st pick in the mini draft. Like the O’Meara scenario last year, we probably won’t trump that. GC highly unlikely to trade pick 1 and Whitfield for MD pick. Building on the OP’s assertion that whoever holds pick 1 won’t bid on JV (and a solid assertion too), GC get taken out of the equation. If we approach them with an offer for MD pick, it’s unlikely we get the dream scenario of pick 3, MD pick and Viney to second round. We could however offer pick 3 to GWS for MD pick, leaving us with pick 4 and Viney in the second round and Martin tucked away to do a season long preseason. GWS would hold picks 2 &3. Now I realise father son bidding happens before trade week, but does anyone believe clubs don’t talk about potential trades long before trade week? As much as I dislike the franchise, I’ll be barracking for a GWS win this weekend. We could be the big winners.

Yep, was there with my little girl (4). It's become a regular ritual for us and good daddy daughter 'hang out' time. Gives mum time out too. She loves singing along to the song at the end of the game, and has been lucky enough to do it on 4 occassions in the last couple of years and now had 2 kicks on the G. Hopefully much more singing (post game) to come.

Port will be the first team to lose to both new expansion teams.

Yeah. I liked it at the time, but wonder how it would look if Beamer accepts a contract elsewhere under free agency?

Very good point. Hard to lump all of those clubs in the same category, because the circumstances surrounding their respective poor seasons all look a bit different when you line them up. What those clubs have that Melbourne don't at the moment are large supporter bases and commercial interests making them much stronger financially and bigger fish than Melbourne have been for a long time. We're doing better commercially these days, but each of those clubs have significant off field strengths that we haven't been able to compete against for a long time. When you compare Melbourne's rebuild with that of the 'rebuild' teams listed above with Melbourne's, and I say this without the raw data in front of me, we would be the ones that invested in youth most completely. If you go back and analyse when these teams started to perform poorly, they still retained seasoned players even when the young high draftees were being integrated. The change in list from 2006 to 2008 was not only dramatic but almost brutal at times. In hindsight perhaps too much so. I was comfortable with the improvements the team was making up until 2010, but in losing Junior and Bruce (after physically mature McLean had already left for Carlton the season before) the balance of youth and experience on the list shifted far too dramatically toward youth. Then factor in that the number of recently drafted players on the list who weren't as physically well developed as other players on offer (think Scully vs Martin), it stands to reason that there bodies were not (and still aren't) able to carry the load of AFL football. The game style also changed to a far more contested style of footy during the rebuilding period as well. Would we have rated young talent differently in 07-09 if we knew contested ball would be so important in 2011? Probably. The football department has recognised this, and has started to make recruiting adjustments. But readymade mature age recruits of the James McDonald kind aren't easy to find, so that leaves us as approximately the third youngest team in the competition. Ahead of the expansion teams. I cite these as the biggest fundamental reasons for Melbourne's failure to step up. However, I think the club is moving in the right direction off field. I highlight the successful pursuit of Mitch Clark and the financial ability to dramatically increase the size of the football department (including Misson and Craig, I'm very happy to have them on board). I think this upcoming trading and drafting period will be crucial. To the point where it will profoundly change the fortunes of the club. It excites me more than a little. As far as tanking's concerned, I just find it hard to believe that a culture of a club can be so adversely effected by tanking. There are too many examples of teams that perform poorly, bring in good talent accordingly, then improve exponentially for that to wash. As long as the equalisation method called the draft exists the tanking discussion will too. Be it AFL, NBA, MLB, whatever, but to blame tanking for Melbourne's culture, relevance or lack thereof is just too simplistic a reason.

Has been rated highly, but missed last year with injury I believe. Smooth as silk outside midfielder. Think Dal Santo. Played very well in the champs, and might have moved from a top 15 rated player into the top 10 (probably higher). His Calder coach Ian Kyte was quoted on him: "He's just a very skilful, class act. He looks to have a lot of time when he gets the ball and he uses it really well. I'd like to think we can afford to play him as an outside midfielder trying to teach him to play inside."

Jeremy Cameron is out of contract next year and has put off talks till next year. Lets get in his ear. Would love to pinch one back from them and he'll be a better long term investment than Cloke.

GC trumped us with pick 4 for O'Meara, Crows sent pick 10 & their Phil Davis compensation pick to GWS for Brad Crouch.

I would have thought one of our high picks would do it. GWS, you can have pick 3, but there's only one way you can get it. Happy to give it up and take Viney in 2nd round. If Martin was eligible for the 2012 draft, he'd be top 3 in my opinion. Only team that could trump us at this stage is GC, and I've read that they could well trade pick 2 to GWS to get into the mini draft with an intial eye on Hogan.

I'm not sure Jack will be exposed all that much in the second half of the season, meaning we'll be left to speculate on the merits or otherwise of having to bid a high pick on him. What impressed me about Jack in the champs was the number of times he hit the pack at pace and ended up sprinting away, winning the clearance. Not too many other inside mids were doing that in the nationals, and I definitely think we could use a clearance winner with some pace on the inside. I think he's being undervalued by a few posters. His kicking and decision making appeared to be of a high enough standard, and he had sufficient pace to burst from packs. All of this was on managed time and interrupted preparation. I really hope that he'll get to the 2nd round, but very comfortable if we have to spend a high pick. My dream scenario has us doing a deal with GWS to get Jack Martin and negiotating a no f/s bid from them.

I haven’t seen Plowman play either. I do keep hearing and reading that he is very highly rated by a number of clubs, to the point where I was surprised just how well regarded he was. I believe he has some potential to play in the midfield. This is from an article that broadly looked at the boys at Calder prior to/early in the TAC Cup season. Daniher, McBean, O’Rourke and Rory Atkins were also briefly profiled: Lachie Plowman (Macedon) (190cm, 81kg) Key defenders are hard to find. Ones which can negate opponents and punish on the rebound with pinpoint skills, like Plowman, are even harder. Still growing, but looks a special talent. Kyte (Ian, coach Calder Cannons) says: "He's going to hold a key position. I think he'll hold centre half-back the majority of the year and be a very good player. He has this real poise, when he gets the ball he has time and he delivers it really well. He plays his footy like he lives his life, always enjoying it with a smile on his face. I know we have a number of players who play KPD, and by and large they’ve done very well defensively, given the frequent ball coming into the defensive 50. However, how many could we honestly say are very good to elite by foot? We’ve had a number of problems this year, some appear to be related to game style change and development, but a constant has been poor transition from defence to attack. We’ve been hurt a lot from turnovers coming out of defence. No good repelling an attack and beating your man if you just give it straight back and cough up a score. Watt’s playing back has helped, and James Strauss will help going forward, but I still view it as a weakness at this stage.

Great to see Pickles Evans back. Hope he can have a nice finish to the year, looked very promising last season.

Inside football’s Brett Anderson’s mock draft. Would be rapped to get those players. He does throw up some interesting scenarios surrounding ladder positioning and mini draft trades. He also believes we are firmly into Jesse Hogan. http://www.insidefootballonline.com/feature.html

I think you’re under selling Martin here. Yes he’s skinny, but far more than just an outside type. Have a look at his tackle stats and his average in the champs would probably be around 5 or 6 (he had 6 in game 3). He wins contested ball, so I would say he’s an inside/outside type. I watched him closely at Etihad and he runs hard both ways, not just offensively on the spread. He’s composed with the ball, and has pace and a vertical leap. Don’t worry about his size, if we get him (and I believe we should do whatever it takes) we will be able to tuck him away for a year and build him up before he even plays his first game. His overall skill set is as complete as any who have come through the championships in recent years. I like Hogan too. His competitive, courageous and very strong overhead. His big minus is kicking. I don’t like what I saw with his kicking for goal, but he has a lot of upside. I just think Martin has more upside and can help us in more areas overall.

Apparently Vlastuin was carrying an ankle injury into the Champs, so was limited to playing half back. Really noticed him against SA in one passage of play where he pressured the ball carrier, got the smother, got straight back up and delivered a 50M pass for a teammate to run onto. Very competetive and good skills. Read that his coach compared him to Vossy (I'm presuming it isn't just because he has red hair). With his reduced involvement due to the calf problem, his output is a bit down, probably in the 8-15 range now. He could bolt back up with a good TAC Cup finish.

Billings is a gun. Underage unforts, will go high next year. Agree on Caddy. A good player, but for what GC will ask for him, I'm sure we'll find better value elsewhere.

Toumpas needs surgery on his hip: http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/140230/default.aspx I'd be surprised if it's not the sort of thing that's affected his burst speed, because he is known for having good pace. Without injury worries I rate him top 3, but I'd want to be convinced that the hip wont cause problems in the future before spending pick 3. Unfortunate for him (and recruiters) that he wont be able to play out the season. With Wines, I'd like to see what his 20m sprint times are like, because I don't know how quick he is on the burst/spread. It's the difference between him going top 5 or in the 8-15 range for mine. I hadn't seen Stringer before yesterday, and I still need to see more to decide where he sits. Still looks to be building into it after the broken leg. I hope he can finish the TAC Cup season strongly.

Whitfield is still the consensus number 1 by some margin. The general view is that you could throw a blanket over the rest. It's unlikely whoever will hold pick 1 will bid for Viney, but whoever holds pick 2 (esp GWS) will be all too happy to spend that pick on him. His game time was managed yesterday, but when he was on he caught the eye, esp when he broke away from the packs (and speared a pass to Joe Daniher on one occassion, had me grinning) and he did enough to justify a high pick I thought. That said, I think we should throw the kitchen sink to try and get Martin, and if in negotiations we convince GWS not to bid on Jack V, and deliver us the other Jack (M) to tuck away for a year, it will be a draft win for the ages.