Watson11

Is it really individuals or a change to our system. Brown and Fritsch (and Gawn) were all there last year. Why are we dead last for forward 50 pressure this year. To me it looks intentional and for the first 10 games no one except Hawthorn took our system on. Now almost everyone takes it on, and if they don’t we make them look average and if they do we struggle.

I’m still dumbfounded that we lost last night, and thought I would bump this. My opinion is our coaches are getting it horribly wrong this year and I’m not sure why. Especially against Collingwood that are an ordinary team (watch Sydney pull them apart next week). We seem to have made a conscious tactic to let sides have space in our inside 50 and we drop back to try and apply a zone. I think it’s confusing players who are caught in 2 mindsets ie do I pressure or zone back. For kickins it just hasn’t worked either. Collingwood had zero chance last night if we apply forward half pressure. They lose the territory battle every week, even against bottom teams (their last nine wins are against us twice and 7 of the bottom 8 by an average of 6 points), yet we made it easy for them. Longmire is too astute to allow them to do that against Sydney. We obviously had 65 i50s to 41, and shots at goal from 45% of our i50s is not too bad. But they scored from 56% of i50s with reminded me of 2018/19 when sides just transitioned too easily. It’s a complete reversal from last year. The disposal efficiency stats tell the story. Their defenders had 8 out of their 9 highest efficiency ratings. They just weren’t pressured. This has been a tactic all year, and has seen us continually picked apart since Hawthorn exposed it. Freo didn’t do it last week which was a surprise and they paid for it. The question is whether our problems are really this simple, and if they are why doesn’t the coaching group change it up. I actually think we will win the flag if we make this tactical tweak.

Fixed it for you...

I think the club needs to seek clarification before Monday on the holding the ball rule. Is their March decree still current? I guess we find out Monday. https://amp.abc.net.au/article/100908150 “Free kicks will be awarded against players who duck their heads prior to being tackled and do not dispose of the ball correctly. Some of the red flags for umpires will include players evading, fending, ducking, having a prior option and not taking it, being balanced and steady, or driving their head.”

I would also add athletes often have heavy/light blocks when loading, so you would expect the high performance team to ease off in the weeks that we have tough games and load in weeks against teams that are lower on the ladder. Might explain our great efforts against Brisbane and Port last year which were surrounded by sub par efforts last year. Also, our 4th qtr stats support the loading theory. In that round 11 to 18 period last year we were 3w-5l in 4th qtrs, but we were 14w-3l in 4th qtrs for the rest of the season (losses were 1 point, 4 points and 6 points). This year we were 7w-3l in 4th qtrs for weeks 1-10 and so far are 0w-2l for the "loading period". We have not looked as fit this year as last, so we probably need the loading period even more. The only concern this year is it's a lot tougher draw in that period. And our pressure has been down from week 1 so we have a lot of work to do. Final thing to add, is with a 10-0 or 9-1 start I think you can start loading and preparing for September. I doubt Sydney felt the same way as they were only 1 game inside the 8.

Interested to hear where everyone thinks we are at tactically and what adjustments are needed. A few sobering stats. Intercepts are way down and for the last 2 weeks have been bottom 4 in the afl level. Scores from opposition inside 50s have been at bottom of the afl level. These stats we were #1 in last year by a long way, and #1 or 2 this year until a few weeks ago, so we have dropped to bottom 4 level pretty quickly. I think we have a rock solid game plan and structures, but our pressure (and probably motivation) has not been super high. For the first 10 weeks, it seems no teams tweaked that we were not the 2021 version of ourselves, and other than Hawthorn played into our hands with slow ball movement. Fast ball movement against the 2021 version of ourselves (#1 for score from turnover) would be suicide. But Freo, and Sydney tweaked that our pressure is substandard this year and did a couple of things that have exposed us. First, at stoppages they seem to not rush with very few dump kicks forward and are getting much deeper and better clearances than what happened against us last year. Second, from backward of centre they are taking the game on and running it out and moving the ball quickly, a lot through the corridor, and getting deep inside 50s to one on one’s. Freo we’re the big surprise here, as they were ranked #17 in the afl for speed of ball movement but in the 2nd half they moved the ball super quick. Both of these tactics have taken Lever’s intercepting out of the game. Not helped by May out either. We have been down by 8 and 12 intercepts per game versus last years and the early season average for us and exposed our defence. I’m not sure how you get an entire team that all played full ground defence to perfection last year to suddenly flick the switch. Should Jordan go back into the midfield. He was our best tackler and defensive mid for the first half of last year. Should Brayshaw go back to the wing? Interested in thoughts.

I doubt they send it straight to the tribunal. The AFL have already considered headbutts as a classifiable offence for the MRO to handle. But who knows.

But if it’s MRO it’s just the same as Buddy. Intentional, high, low force = 1 week. Maybe medium force = 2 weeks. Is that what you mean by go hard?

Intercept players rely on pressure up the field on the ball carrier. Lever is always the player that is positioned to intercept the hack kick forward and last year we were like Richmond at their best. This year we are ranked 17th for pressure.

Not a great example to use! The 2006 crows should have won the flag that year but self imploded. They were 1st on the ladder when the McLeod/Edwards feud exploded and then lost something like 5 games in a row and just managed to keep 2nd spot with a win in the final game (against who else but us!). Then they crashed out in a home preliminary final. Not saying having players that hate each other was the cause but it sure didn’t help judging by how quickly that season went south when the feud went public (it got worse post season and in 2007).

Geelong have 3 walkovers, but no other easy games. 5 games are against current top 8 sides with 3 of them tough games at GMBH plus away games against Gold Coast, Port and Richmond (mcg home game for cats) who are 1 and 2 games behind them. I’m not sure their draw is easy with that number of 8 point games (they play dogs 2x and saints as well). They could miss the 8, but I hope they don’t so we have the satisfaction of beating them again.

Another reason we didn't grind our way back was pointed out by @The Mongrel Punt with the "Get out of Jail" marks. Freo took 11 for the game (most by any side this season). We setup our zone to get repeat inside 50s, but 11 times Freo mark a long kick down the line that relived the pressure. And as Mongrel Punt pointed out, then Frederick etc ran damn hard and exposed us down field. We really missed May spoiling those kicks. https://themongrelpunt.com/afl-season-2022/2022/05/28/fremantle-v-melbourne-the-big-questions/ Outside tactics I just think we are not where we need to be with the pressure we apply. We have done it for probably no more than 1 or 2 qtrs in any game.

It's been a few weeks but below is an update of the defensive stats. I have also added the 2021 numbers for comparison. If you look at 2021, Brisbane were #2 defensively (scores from oppo i50s) and miles behind us (5.2% worse). And Brisbane's mids don't defend well which shows up as in their #11 ranking for i50s conceded this year (#11 last year so they have not fixed the issue). Freo's improvement this year is ridiculously good defensively. It has clicked for them. They are #1 for conceding i50s, #1 for conceding scores from i50s, and #1 for field position of turnovers (closer to goal). We are #1 for intercepts (Freo are #3) but the difference is small. Last year we were #1 by miles. This year our intercepting has been based on structure, not pressure on the ball carrier like last year. Freo are intercepting with both pressure and structure and that's a dangerous combination. IMO Freo are the biggest threat to us come finals and I'm still calling a Freo v Melb GF.

I can see lots of grounds to uphold the appeal. Not to be nitpicky about words as we don’t want that sort of stuff on demonland do we, but there is no mention of the word deliberate in the MRP Guidelines. So if the afl argue deliberate he’ll get off on a technicality. It’s Intentional or careless. So Sydney will totally confuse Gleeson by arguing it was both intentional and careless. There is no grading for that! He intentionally decided to whack Cotchin, but intended to whack him in the chest and carelessly got him in the head. Hence changed from intentional high contact (1 week) to intentional body contact or careless high contact (both are a fine). I seem to recall Gaff arguing the same thing when he broke Andrew Brayshaws jaw (tried to hit him in the chest). But it didn’t work then so no reason to think it won’t work this time.

We did up 3 or 4 goals through turnovers from attacking corridor kicks. Is that what you would like them to do more of? The reason why we tried that is they were smashing us at stoppages and I thought we panicked. Normally we would grind a goal or two out and get it back on our terms but they were just too good. Sydney are a different challenge. They have very poor defensive systems. Freo are elite defensively.

@binman ‘s analysis is excellent. Commentators just fail to understand why we are mid table for conversion of inside 50s, which is exactly as binman stated in the we are defence first and kick to the pockets as the first option. That’s low percentage to convert immediately to a goal but high percentage that the next score is ours even if it takes multiple inside 50s. @WheeloRatings is posting some excellent data. If you look at ball movement, Carlton move the ball slowly and tend to move sideways. Against decent defences that run hard defensively they will struggle to score freely. So far Carlton have played 1 team in the top 6 defensively (Freo), and scored 62 points in perfect conditions. Add a Carlton defence that is middle of the road (they are improving though) and they have a long way to go and are not our main threat.

That’s a pretty good assessment. Based on the average midfield performance (i50s) and the average defence (goals and scores conceded per i50), the average result would be 14.13 to 10.11. If we kicked straighter it would average 6 goals!

Only if the pies beat Freo today.

Mathematically, the home ground probabilities are more realistic (but still flawed as they don’t take into account that teams finishing higher are better teams). I especially like group 2 from the home ground probabilities which now consists of Geelong only. We and other mcg co tenants are Group 5.

@Demon17 I admire your persistence in your theory but just a couple of other outliers of sides that played finals after being outside the 8 after round 9. 2021 GWS and Essendon 2020 Pies 2019 Bulldogs and Essendon 2018 Pies, Hawks, GWS 2017 Essendon (as well as Sydney) 2015 Dogs and north 2014 Tigers and Essendon 2013 Tigers, Pies, Port 2012 Geelong, Freo, North 2011 Saints 2010 Hawks 2009 Pies, Crows, Carlton 2008 Saints etc etc

I agree. Richmond currently are ranked 18 for conceding scores from inside 50s which is a pretty impressive effort considering Essendon, West Coast, and North are better. As soon as they play a decent defence they are toast. The 31 to 14 scoring shots against us is a true reflection of where they are at. Port also made 2 adjustments to game style 4 weeks ago that seem to be working and since then are conceding less goals per inside 50 than us. They have played some average teams though so this week will test out their new style properly.

I'm not scared by any team that leaks more scores per inside 50 that West Coast and North. % Scores Conceded i50s Melbourne 37.2 Brisbane 38.9 Fremantle 38 St Kilda 40.1 Geelong 41.2 Western Bulldogs 43.8 Hawthorn 44.1 Sydney 42.5 GWS 45 Collingwood 44 Gold Coast 43.2 Port Adelaide 42.3 Adelaide 44.5 West Coast 47.2 Carlton 44.3 Essendon 47.7 North Melbourne 47.3 Richmond 48

Sorry, but the 8 has changed after round 9 every year except 3. The last time it didn’t change was 2016. Even the premier has come from outside the 8 on or after round 9 on 2 occasions in the last 20 years!

It should matter though. The AFL needs to start acting like a proper tribunal system where precedent does matter and they apply decisions consistently. I think Chandler should get suspended but the rules need to be applied consistently. The AFL seems to put commercial interests first and the MRO follow. The AFL wants the best players from the biggest clubs on the field. It will be interesting to see what happens when a Hawkins tackle results in a superstar missing games (the AFL don't want that). We are lucky it didn't get tested last year after the tackle below in round 23.

You must be kidding about the afl being tough on these sort of tackles. Exhibit 1, late tackle, player concussed, no penalty. Tom Hawkins tackle