Watson11

Intercept players rely on pressure up the field on the ball carrier. Lever is always the player that is positioned to intercept the hack kick forward and last year we were like Richmond at their best. This year we are ranked 17th for pressure.

Not a great example to use! The 2006 crows should have won the flag that year but self imploded. They were 1st on the ladder when the McLeod/Edwards feud exploded and then lost something like 5 games in a row and just managed to keep 2nd spot with a win in the final game (against who else but us!). Then they crashed out in a home preliminary final. Not saying having players that hate each other was the cause but it sure didn’t help judging by how quickly that season went south when the feud went public (it got worse post season and in 2007).

Geelong have 3 walkovers, but no other easy games. 5 games are against current top 8 sides with 3 of them tough games at GMBH plus away games against Gold Coast, Port and Richmond (mcg home game for cats) who are 1 and 2 games behind them. I’m not sure their draw is easy with that number of 8 point games (they play dogs 2x and saints as well). They could miss the 8, but I hope they don’t so we have the satisfaction of beating them again.

Another reason we didn't grind our way back was pointed out by @The Mongrel Punt with the "Get out of Jail" marks. Freo took 11 for the game (most by any side this season). We setup our zone to get repeat inside 50s, but 11 times Freo mark a long kick down the line that relived the pressure. And as Mongrel Punt pointed out, then Frederick etc ran damn hard and exposed us down field. We really missed May spoiling those kicks. https://themongrelpunt.com/afl-season-2022/2022/05/28/fremantle-v-melbourne-the-big-questions/ Outside tactics I just think we are not where we need to be with the pressure we apply. We have done it for probably no more than 1 or 2 qtrs in any game.

It's been a few weeks but below is an update of the defensive stats. I have also added the 2021 numbers for comparison. If you look at 2021, Brisbane were #2 defensively (scores from oppo i50s) and miles behind us (5.2% worse). And Brisbane's mids don't defend well which shows up as in their #11 ranking for i50s conceded this year (#11 last year so they have not fixed the issue). Freo's improvement this year is ridiculously good defensively. It has clicked for them. They are #1 for conceding i50s, #1 for conceding scores from i50s, and #1 for field position of turnovers (closer to goal). We are #1 for intercepts (Freo are #3) but the difference is small. Last year we were #1 by miles. This year our intercepting has been based on structure, not pressure on the ball carrier like last year. Freo are intercepting with both pressure and structure and that's a dangerous combination. IMO Freo are the biggest threat to us come finals and I'm still calling a Freo v Melb GF.

I can see lots of grounds to uphold the appeal. Not to be nitpicky about words as we don’t want that sort of stuff on demonland do we, but there is no mention of the word deliberate in the MRP Guidelines. So if the afl argue deliberate he’ll get off on a technicality. It’s Intentional or careless. So Sydney will totally confuse Gleeson by arguing it was both intentional and careless. There is no grading for that! He intentionally decided to whack Cotchin, but intended to whack him in the chest and carelessly got him in the head. Hence changed from intentional high contact (1 week) to intentional body contact or careless high contact (both are a fine). I seem to recall Gaff arguing the same thing when he broke Andrew Brayshaws jaw (tried to hit him in the chest). But it didn’t work then so no reason to think it won’t work this time.

We did up 3 or 4 goals through turnovers from attacking corridor kicks. Is that what you would like them to do more of? The reason why we tried that is they were smashing us at stoppages and I thought we panicked. Normally we would grind a goal or two out and get it back on our terms but they were just too good. Sydney are a different challenge. They have very poor defensive systems. Freo are elite defensively.

@binman ‘s analysis is excellent. Commentators just fail to understand why we are mid table for conversion of inside 50s, which is exactly as binman stated in the we are defence first and kick to the pockets as the first option. That’s low percentage to convert immediately to a goal but high percentage that the next score is ours even if it takes multiple inside 50s. @WheeloRatings is posting some excellent data. If you look at ball movement, Carlton move the ball slowly and tend to move sideways. Against decent defences that run hard defensively they will struggle to score freely. So far Carlton have played 1 team in the top 6 defensively (Freo), and scored 62 points in perfect conditions. Add a Carlton defence that is middle of the road (they are improving though) and they have a long way to go and are not our main threat.

That’s a pretty good assessment. Based on the average midfield performance (i50s) and the average defence (goals and scores conceded per i50), the average result would be 14.13 to 10.11. If we kicked straighter it would average 6 goals!

Only if the pies beat Freo today.

Mathematically, the home ground probabilities are more realistic (but still flawed as they don’t take into account that teams finishing higher are better teams). I especially like group 2 from the home ground probabilities which now consists of Geelong only. We and other mcg co tenants are Group 5.

@Demon17 I admire your persistence in your theory but just a couple of other outliers of sides that played finals after being outside the 8 after round 9. 2021 GWS and Essendon 2020 Pies 2019 Bulldogs and Essendon 2018 Pies, Hawks, GWS 2017 Essendon (as well as Sydney) 2015 Dogs and north 2014 Tigers and Essendon 2013 Tigers, Pies, Port 2012 Geelong, Freo, North 2011 Saints 2010 Hawks 2009 Pies, Crows, Carlton 2008 Saints etc etc

I agree. Richmond currently are ranked 18 for conceding scores from inside 50s which is a pretty impressive effort considering Essendon, West Coast, and North are better. As soon as they play a decent defence they are toast. The 31 to 14 scoring shots against us is a true reflection of where they are at. Port also made 2 adjustments to game style 4 weeks ago that seem to be working and since then are conceding less goals per inside 50 than us. They have played some average teams though so this week will test out their new style properly.

I'm not scared by any team that leaks more scores per inside 50 that West Coast and North. % Scores Conceded i50s Melbourne 37.2 Brisbane 38.9 Fremantle 38 St Kilda 40.1 Geelong 41.2 Western Bulldogs 43.8 Hawthorn 44.1 Sydney 42.5 GWS 45 Collingwood 44 Gold Coast 43.2 Port Adelaide 42.3 Adelaide 44.5 West Coast 47.2 Carlton 44.3 Essendon 47.7 North Melbourne 47.3 Richmond 48

Sorry, but the 8 has changed after round 9 every year except 3. The last time it didn’t change was 2016. Even the premier has come from outside the 8 on or after round 9 on 2 occasions in the last 20 years!

It should matter though. The AFL needs to start acting like a proper tribunal system where precedent does matter and they apply decisions consistently. I think Chandler should get suspended but the rules need to be applied consistently. The AFL seems to put commercial interests first and the MRO follow. The AFL wants the best players from the biggest clubs on the field. It will be interesting to see what happens when a Hawkins tackle results in a superstar missing games (the AFL don't want that). We are lucky it didn't get tested last year after the tackle below in round 23.

You must be kidding about the afl being tough on these sort of tackles. Exhibit 1, late tackle, player concussed, no penalty. Tom Hawkins tackle

Ed was only knocked off top spot for a week.

I’ll post the top 10 when it’s published. The scoring is a mystery to me as they use stats and votes. @The Mongrel Punt would you be able to elaborate what stats are used and how the voting works?

To be fair SWYL is not the only one that doesn’t know what a wingman looks like. The AA selectors don’t either. To compensate, mongrelpunt run their own rankings, and publish the latest ladder on Tuesdays. The standings after round 7 were

This site has good stats https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html There is a play on % stat (I'm not sure what the % is of), which I would normally equate to an offensive brand, and Crows and Saints are bottom 3. Interestingly Hawks were near the bottom, and then last week they played on nearly 50% more than normal against us. Port are high up, but then against us they decided to change it and played on 50% less and were hopeless. Sides that take the game on can hurt is (like the dogs for a qtr), but that comes unstuck against us when we bring pressure. Our pressure has been down this year compared to last year, and all the related stats are down (pressure acts, tackles, ground ball gets etc). For Tackles we were #1 last year, and this year are #16. I hope we can turn the pressure on when needed. Would be good to do it this week.

Update to defensive stats courtesy of @WheeloRatings. We were bad against the Hawks conceding scores from 52% of inside 50s. We also broke the 50% barrier against the bombers in round 3. We only did it once last year (Pies game). Freo have jumped above us for scores conceded per i50 (but not goals). The site has an interesting stat Play On %. Freo are #1 defensively in that stat (stopping opponents playing on). We are #3. We are #1 on the other side (offensively playing on), while Freo are #18.

Was unloved last week as well when he kept Shai Bolton to his lowest disposal count for over 12 months

Update of defensive stats. Definitely seems to be locked in to some averages now with only minor movement each week. Freo are putting up impressive numbers. Carlton were ranked third for i50s before last week (56 per game). Freo restricted them to just 38 i50s which is pretty impressive. If Freo's system stands up against Geelog this week then I'll call a Freo v Melb grand final. Brisbane are dangerous offensively but when finals pressure hits their mids are too loose and slow (bottom 6 at conceding i50s).

Agree re Freo. I expect the wheels to fall off Carlton this year. Take away Curnow and McKay goals (through good defence, bad winter weather, more pressure on Carlton mids or injury) and Carlton are bottom 6 in my opinion. Gerard Healy had an interesting stat re Freo. If their kicking for goal was at the "expected accuracy" rate in 2021, they would have finished 5th (in front of the bulldogs). They have improved their defence again this year and are kicking straight.