Watson11

I wouldn’t say Goody is incompetent, but he is not getting the results expected and our attacking gameplan strategy is flawed. In Goody’s tenure we have only ranked highly for attacking efficiency (shots per i50) once, which was 2021 (ranked #1), and have been bottom half 6x. And if you look at overall season results and compare that to the median of what all 50+ commentators/analysts predicted for us preseason, we exceeded expectations once (2021), met expectations twice (2018 and 2020), and fell short 4x. That to me says the industry in general thinks we have the players, but we are not getting the best out of them and our stats say that is our attacking game plan. Our attacking strategy has really had 2 different phases under Goody. From 2017-2020 Goody stubbornly stuck to an i50 strategy to get the ball into the +-30 degree corridor as goals are easier to kick from there. If you looked at accuracy alone, we were ranked #1 or 2 for expected accuracy (ease of shots) every year from 2017-2020, and even were ranked #1 for overall accuracy in 2017/18. But our i50 efficiency was poor (especially against top teams) and got worse and worse as time passed and clubs realised how we played. 2021 with all the coaching changes saw our attacking game plan flipped on its head. We threw out the old plan and went to the pockets, and it worked. Our expected accuracy dived to #18 but we jumped from bottom of the table to #1 for shots on goal from i50s. The last 2 years we have stubbornly stuck to that kick to the pockets gameplan, opposition teams have worked it out, and as a result our shots on goal from i50s have steadily dropped. So we now have both poor accuracy and poor efficiency i50. Sure Goody tried a different approach at the start of this year. But he either wasn’t comfortable with it or lost his nerve, because as soon as we had a few losses we went back to predictability and conservativeness. If we remain predictable next year, then we will get even worse attacking results than this year which is a scary thought.

And i50 gameplan. They are linked.

Is it really that simple? Greg Norman had a technique that nailed shot after shot on the driving range and in normal tournaments, but everyone knew it did not stand up well to pressure where everything moved a bit faster (ie back 9 on grand slams) where he became prone to pushing right and snap hooks. Maybe we can say it’s all psychological and he needed to learn to look inward and relax etc etc, but another way is to sort out your technique so it has more margin for error. Better technique (and more practice) gives you more confidence and more ability to relax, and methods to relax reinforce confidence in your technique. Max running at right angles, Tracc walking in to kick and leaning back, Kossie changing his routine every kick all have no margin for error and just tiny mistakes from the pressure produces inconsistent results.

Unless young kid is Jamie Elliot. After Port game where he iced another match winner and asked how he did it. “Walk 5, run 5 and kick”.

All fair. But my post was in response to a post where I put our 4 consecutive finals losses down to our atrocious goal kicking and conversion and i50 strategy. I can cop bad days as it happens. What I think is unprofessional is players having no goalkicking routine to fall back on under pressure. Max, Kozzie, Tracc were the super obvious ones that were all over the place in their goal kicking routines. It’s an afl problem but I don’t care what other teams do just what we do. I always have felt it would cost us in a final. Never dreamed it would cost us 4x in a row. This is the most flat post season feeling ever. Worse than the worst years. Because we stuffed up and didn’t get beaten by anyone that is better than us.

Our really important players all played. Against the blues 3 games ago Melk and JVR didn’t kick a goal between them from 6 and 7 disposals, so how can we claim their absence was the reason we lost when Smith kicked 3? And Petty needs a full season up forward. He had one and a half good games up forward this season, so no history to give you confidence he would deliver in finals. We can agree to disagree.

We should be better kicking for goal. We were much improved moving the ball inside 50 last night but shouldn’t only pull that out in a sudden death final. We need coaches who really want to sort these 2 things out. Goal kicking really gives me the sh&ts. As players are running in its obvious they will miss. As soon as Max started running towards the point post I knew he would miss. Kossie kicks well when he gets good momentum like his second shot. His first was not his routine. When Tracc walks in you know he will miss as he leans back. It’s unprofessional that they and the coaches have not done enough quality goal kicking practice to get their routines nailed down so they can produce under pressure like the last 2 weeks. The fact we have arguably lost at least 3 and maybe 4 of our finals due to poor goal kicking is a blight on Goody. To go well in 2024 the club has to stay off demonland and not buy into supporters excuses about injuries being why we lost. We had all our superstars. WCE got it done without 3 injured All Australians (6xAA between them) in 2018. If the club accepts excuses like injuries then we won’t address the issues in our control. There needs to be a serious effort to address our goal kicking and our attacking game plan. Our defensive game is elite.

If the coaching team were not dysfunctional I would be very surprised. 99% of management teams are. I believe Goodwin reports to Richo. I suspect mid, forward, and back coaches report to Goody. I suspect Williams, Whitford, Radford report to Richo but are part of a team and all provide input/advice to Goody. But Williams has (or used to have) a lot of input with the senior group re skills so maybe he has dual reporting lines. There is also the high performance manager and analytics teams. I suspect they report to Richo but also provide input to Goody. Burgo framed it that he provides advice and risks (re injuries and whether players are ready) but the final decision is the coach. Goody sets our gameplan using all the info, he tells the line coaches. He is responsible for match day moves but gets advice. But who knows if the coaching team works well together or not. We just see what happens on the field, but we don’t sit in team meetings with Goody and all of the above. We have no idea if they are a really high functioning team where ideas are expressed freely and without reprisal and good decisions are made, or whether they are what is common in business and are a dysfunctional team and bad decisions are made. Just looking at goalkicking. I was so frustrated looking at the way we took our set shots. Kossie, Max, Tracc still have no reliable set shot routine to fall back on under pressure. It’s a bad decision to not invest more in goal kicking. Inside 50 plan is another dysfunctional plan and I find it hard to believe all coaches agree with our safety first approach.

Interesting stats in Carlton v Sydney 1st Half - Sydney played on 11% of the time. Kicked 2.6. 2nd Half - Sydney played on 37% of the time. Kicked 7.8 It will be very disappointing if we stick to our stodgy method. Surely not. If we take the game on and attack we win this.

Sun Tzu The Art if War “The whole secret lies in confusing the enemy, so that he cannot fathom our real intent.” “Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.”

The optimist says 25% of flags won by QF losers. The pessimist says 12.5% of QF losers win the flag.

The most frustrating thing is the Pies have no elite power forwards but have devised a game plan and strategy to suit their team. They rarely bomb it in, forwards all lead and create lots of space, and mids try and get it inside 50 quickly. When they can’t they chip it around. And they are ranked #1 for goals per inside 50 this year. They were bottom 5 and 6 prior to Macrae/Leppitsch. We have a similar lack of elite power forwards, but usually bomb it in and don’t lead much. It’s not our personnel but our coaching. Damp conditions make us even more risk averse and dysfunctional. When Petty came in against Richmond and was leading like crazy I thought our coaches had finally got it together. We are going to need a lot of luck the next 3 weeks. Starting with the weather. Our inside 50 dominance will usually win the day in dry conditions.

You mean head high and high impact like when Tom McCartin unintentionally broke McAdams cheekbone? Didn’t McCartin get off.

TMac’s point of difference used to be that he could run all day and create separation, but the TMac I saw on the Casey highlights does not look like that TMac. If we apply forward 50 pressure like KB and against Sydney, we win on scores from forward half turnover and don’t need an extra big body. TMac, in my opinion, will be like that broken link in the chain that sees f50 pressure unravel. Better to go smaller and more mobile and cut Collingwoods rebound off.

Brisbane are 2-4 in finals at the Gabba since 2019. I don’t think Port should be any more worried about travelling there than to the G.

And Geelong are currently sitting at draft pick 8. Win this week and it is guaranteed pick 10. Lose and could be pick 6. But nothing to see with half the team booked in for early surgeries or injured including Hawkins and Cameron.

If you look at the process though, isn’t it on the field umps to call for the review if there is doubt. https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/AFL-Score-Review.pdf

I think you will find that’s incorrect if you read the afl score review procedures. It’s on any of the field umpires to blow the whistle to stop the clock if there is any doubt and start consultation. Really the field umps are the ones who should be stood down.

Whoever he goes to it will be a learning experience. Tracc or Clarry.

Hopefully they are just flat because they made finals for the first time in a million years and have relaxed now the monkey is off their back.

Pies scored 100 pts though as their system caters for the lack of talls. I would be happy if we kicked 100pts every game from now on. We have scored 100+ 8x and won them all.

To be fair, it tells us we are doing fine without him against bottom teams. Against top 8 teams we are 0-1 without him and 6-2 with him. I personally think 4 small forwards would work if we switched our forward 50 gameplan to high pressure and not bombing long ie Richmond 2017 style. My view is we need to accept that Grundy/TMac/BB are not the answer and adjust our inside 50 gameplan appropriately. And that would mean our forwards all leading for a change and Spargo would be helpful delivering inside 50. I personally think Spargo got dropped by Goody because he went away from team rules and instead of just bombing it in, took on risky kicks against Brisbane and turned it over. But who knows.

Of the games Spargo didn’t play, 5 are against the bottom 6 and only 1 against a top 8 team. Of the games he played in, 4 were top 4, another 4 top 8, then also Geelong in Geelong. The record when he plays versus doesn’t is totally meaningless and tells us nothing.

All fair points but the zone or pressure debate to protect i50s is not mutually exclusive. To be a real threat you need to do both. Carlton are setting the benchmark in the last 5 or so games and Port and the Pies crumbled (we stood up pretty well). It’s so hard to play against. That we are still trying stuff at this stage of the season is not ideal. Kozzie played deeper after half time but it far from fixed the i50 pressure. In the 3rd qtr we gave up 2 goals from d50 where it was too easy. Both went straight down the other end for soft goals. It isn’t on Kozzie but all 6 forwards. We withstood their first qtr territory dominance, and really dominated them from then onwards. For the last 3 qtrs we had 45 i50s to 28 but got outscored and those soft goals we gave up were costly. They cost us just as much as the stoppage goals at the start of the last. Ironically, Carlton are a much more dangerous team without McKay. With him in this year, they were 16th for f50 tackles. In the last 5 weeks since he went down they are ranked #1. It’s a problem for Carlton as they are a poorer side with him in. It’s a problem for us as without a tackling tall like Petty we are a much poorer team (TMac/BB/Grundy are not the answer). For us to hold up through finals I personally think we need to accept what we have and a 2nd tall is not required, and focus on f50 pressure like Carlton have done recently, and Richmond did in 2017.

I don’t think that’s correct. Incorrect disposal is incorrect disposal. It’s penalised. If a player has prior opportunity and doesn’t dispose of the ball it’s also penalised. But if no prior they can just hold onto it.