** LONG POST, BEAR WITH ME **
I think we win tonight, because we're the better side on paper and we SHOULD win if we're the real deal.
BUT...
I worry a little because Port come into this game after some hardened opposition, with good wins. We're coming in soft after Hawthorn and the Roos, with a very close call against the Suns in between.
I see parallels with last year where we were shown up by Freo, Swans and Pies after a soft 10/11 rounds against poor teams and teams who had not yet hit their stride. This year, our wins have been against the Doggies (poor until recently), Suns (11), Richmond (13), Swans (14), Roos (16), Eagles (17) and Hawthorn (18). We lost against the Bombers who were flying at the time, and Brisbane (3).
While we have had positive moments (like the intense pressure we had against the Hawks in the first half), we still wobble (like against the Suns and the Hawks in Q3). We're still susceptible to teams who apply lots of pressure (see the Suns, and the Hawks, again, for example). Against better sides, our fumbles and weakness (pressure) could be exposed more prominently - much like it was against the Lions and Bombers (both applied tons of pressure and we wilted).
So what happens tonight? I don't know. It's not the end of the world if we lose, but I would like us to come our firing and match Port's pressure and confidence, because we're going to need it. They have the talent to carve us up if we're not on. It'd be great to get a clearer picture of where we're at, and obviously it would be great to know we're looking good.
I know we have the talent pool, and Salo coming back is IMMENSE (although I won't expect too much from his first game back if he plays), but those 3 consecutive losses last year remind me of that false sense of confidence, and the very sudden reality check that could lie around the corner if we're not careful.
TL;DR - I am not sure our road to this game is as convincing as Port (especially the last few), so we should not come in with a false sense of confidence (and therefore complacency) - we will need to BRING IT to win tonight.
And we can, would love to see it and remind everyone we're the real #1.
Go Dees (us by 11 points)