Engorged Onion

Just to add to yours @titan_uranus. This fact is no different to the Dogs, Swans, Port, Brisbane and Geelong, who have all worse records against the top 8, and similar records against those outside the top 8. And there is no evidence that they do it in perpetuity either. So why do we expect our team to operate outside the norms of whats realistic for a team in this competition?

It's a good point @Clint Bizkit So if we're working off the hypothesis, that as a FD and team, we are prepared to risk losing first use, due to pressuring the opposition and getting a dump kick, and feeling that particular option works more consistently (when it occurs, getting ball in d50 and working back for a cleaner delivery into the F50 (rather than first use and pressured kick), then the inverse for our opponents is also true, hence our back 6 performing very well throughout the season (with added bonus pressure from the mids on the kicks entering the D50). Whilst I'd rather us blow teams out of the water - and to be fair - I'm not sure what happened after 1/4 time in the game (but as noted Hawthorns pressure gauge was well up), I'm not worried about it. So what does this mean for Gawn and the midfield brigade for being 16th to hitouts for advantage? Well, I'd imagine it's a reaction to 2017-2020 opposition trying to shark (and consistently doing well at it) all taps to advantage from Gawn - as the assumption was made - Gawn is ultimately going to win 80-90% of taps, so lets set up that way as the opposition. That then nullified our midfielders propensity to win the ball... As a reaction to that (as well as other factors, being beaten on the outside) - Goodwin and co have set up the midfielders in a way whereby if they DO get the ball from a tap - great, but also if they don't win the clearance - damage isn't huge. I'd argue the evidence is there, we're on top of the ladder, no team has blown US out of the water, up to the bye we were on 'record' to becoming a team that had the best (least) ever % of D50 entries to conversions. We've lost (and drawn) 4 games by a total of 29 points - that'd be 7.25 points a game. And whilst the evidence is teams are always kept in it, which always feels uncomfortable - I believe this style will hold us in good stead for the finals over the next 3-4 years (should we make it, injuries would be my only concern). The game always tightens up in finals, it's more attritional, systems win, not individual players, but individual players can influence - and we've got (May and Lever, Petracca and Oliver, and probably Pickett, and perhaps Brown and Tmac, as those forwards who could light it up). As bizarre as it sounds, I'm not worried about the hit outs to advantage stat, because teams have been counteracting Max for years, and we've had to find a way to counteract their positioning, rather than trying to get first use at all costs, and been blown out of the water on the outside as we've been done for 4-5 years. It's not sexy, but it's smart coaching.

Love your efforts in sourcing those stats. Well done ?

Some random information/data which I think is relevant to this conversation. It's taken from A Matter of Stats (but goes to 2017 - which is a long time ago in football terms). Our style - kicking to pockets, repeat entries - to my mind links into the 3rd point of interest in the Relationship Between Scoring and Winning Rates.

Useless Lockdown Nerd Stat Time. Someone on here recently spoke about the floor and ceiling of each team. So, this arvo, I thought I'd type out all the margins for all teams in all matches played so far (aside from the current GWS/Sydney one). Anyway, make of this what you will. Our spread is less then any other team in the top 4.. and by that I mean, the total points lost by divided by losses and the total points won by divided by the wins - then calculate the difference to get the notional spread. ** I counted a draw as a loss Is it better to have a higher ceiling? Or have a smaller gap between our 'best' and our 'worst'? F.I.I.K Does this matter? Is it meaningful? Who knows? Who even cares. It took me an hour to do whiling away this arvo with some rain, whilst eating Lindt balls.

Yeah but how many OoB’s ??

So just so I’m clear, for every 100 shots on goal - the bulldogs for example kick 1.5 more goals than us? And Port roughly 6 more goals? And if we roughly work out that it’s 20 scoring shots per game - thats 5 games for 100 scoring shots - so over 5 games Port kick 6 goals more than us from an accuracy perspective. Now mathematics isn’t my strong point. But is my logic in interpreting these stats correct?

100% Smokey - I just went for a walk and was thinking about why I was initially so disappointed, I guess for most of us, it’s hard to get distinctions between our expectations not being met, and the subsequent anxiety of what a ‘poor performance’ judgement means for future matches and ultimately winning a GF. I guess for some/most die hards- there is years of frustration/anxitety - that now even when we are on top of the ladder - there still isn’t enough evidence weekly that we’re good enough.

Remember when this thread was started roughly 15 hours ago... and it was at minimum a comfortable 4 goal win. FMD...

Tsunami, tsunami tsunami, came washing over me....

[censored] me @leave it to deever just leave those black and white statements alone. Which team this year (or any year) have done the old 'we bring the same intensity every week'. Not one Not ever Not in your lifetime. Give it a rest.

Slippers are off... I'm pacing around the room, I've put the cat in the fire.

Hunt's so apathetic, he's yawning on the bench.

I'm so relaxed I've broken out an album that is 26 years old and rocking out to it whilst watching the footy.. Hasn't happened since 2000....

..

Pipe and slippers on in front of the open fire peoplezzz I've never been more relaxed at 1/4 time throughout 2021.

Well, that’s rather forthright if you. anyways, the answer will be anticlimactic now.

Indeed, it’s a random riddle as well. Neural pathways take me where they do.

Anything to do wearing vests? or Irish musicians?

Heh! I was there for that game in amongst the Geelong supporters. Staring off into the middle distance for 3 and half quarters. I've said it a few times here, but the comeuppance was when they celebrated Corey Enright's 300 *prior* to the match with plenty of fanfare. It felt like they believed the home win was a foregone conclusion. If I recall Bernie Vince played a blinder down here and we won by perhaps 3 goals. It was deathly silence. And instead of staring off into the middle distance... I stared every [censored] in the eye... ? Anyway, 186 wasn't Geelong's doing. It was the MFC's doing.

Indeed I was... here I was being all Vic-centric assuming the game was at the 'G'.

I live in regional Vic. Stuck in Traffic? Seriously? As in we can't travel more than 5km?, so how is this possible as a reason? Or am I out of touch with how Melbourne traffic operates? Is there something else afoot? Something being kept away from public view? 20 minute delay??? 20 minutes briefing? Half time announcement? tin foil hat???

Good question! For me, a Richmond win... they'll drop off over the remaining rounds anyway

I could clearly see that it was divisible by 11 or 3 but was stuck on looking at it as a singular team reference to cricket...

@Timothy Reddan-A'Blew - was the 33 indicative of how many keepers there have been for Australia?