titan_uranus

These were consecutive posts. Sometimes Demonland is great.

Thanks @WheeloRatings. I think @Bring-Back-Powell nailed this one.

I'm continuing to hope that the "hunter" v "hunted" mindset shift helps us. I was hoping it would vs Brisbane and it did. This is another relatively rare game (for 2021-24) where we're underdogs, and indeed it feels like no one out there thinks we can win, let alone will win (Gawn out obviously a factor there). That lack of expectation, indeed the opposite, hopefully lifts the pressure off. And the opposite for them.

Re-written for you. Setting the bar at multiple flags for any side is unfair and unrealistic. Winning flags is hard. There isn't a single person associated with football who says otherwise. It's generally only done on here by the overwhelming angry/pessimistic. Your username checks out on this point.

I think the only conceptual difference between you two is that @binman is focusing on the potential for players to go backwards. A metre "lost" by a side going backwards is a metre that is not gained by the opposition. If a team has a chain of possession which goes backwards 20m but then is turned over, that's 20m off their metres gained which aren't added to the opposition. Whereas every metre gained by a side going forward who doesn't score is a metre that is eventually made back by the opposition, and so on and so forth until one of those sides scores. Which means that a team's aggregate metres gained really only reflects two things: scoring differential, and how much each side moves the ball backwards.

A sobering thought. Since beating Carlton by a goal in Round 8, Collingwood's only wins in the subsequent 10 weeks have been against West Coast, Adelaide and North Melbourne (two of which were by a kick and were affected by controversial late free kicks)... Oh, and us by six goals.

Assuming 13 wins is the cut off to make finals, Collingwood have to go 4-2 from here to make it. They have Hawthorn, Richmond, Carlton, Sydney, Brisbane and us. If they can beat Hawthorn and Richmond, then find one win from their next three...they could well be playing in Round 24 for a finals spot. Whilst we could, easily, be playing for one as well. Having said that, on their current form they'd be no certainty to beat Hawthorn whilst I can't currently see them getting anywhere near Carlton, Sydney or Brisbane.

They're not much chop regardless. What's infuriating is that they could easily make top 4 off the back of 1, maybe 2, wins against eventual finalists.

Collingwood v Geelong games are tough - I hate wanting either side to win. But in this instance I think we want Geelong - I doubt we can catch Geelong given their fixture (Collingwood, the Dogs and Fremantle are the only relevant sides they have, the rest being North, Adelaide, St Kilda and West Coast), so I'd rather sink losses into Collingwood to keep us above them. We won't catch Carlton so we definitely want them to beat the Dogs (and handsomely too if possible). Gold Coast v Port is another tough one. We'll likely have to beat both to make finals. Can GC find 4 wins out of GWS (away), Brisbane, West Coast (away), Essendon (away) and Richmond (away)? If not, we want them to beat Port to try to keep us closer to Port. Outside of our game, a Richmond upset over GWS would be the best result of the weekend, though.

Paging @WheeloRatings

Being an ex-player obviously gives you knowledge that the rest of us don't have. It doesn't make you a good commentator. King is not a particularly good commentator, because he says stupid things and changes his opinion all the time. For example: A few years back he did a big thing about how the top 8 had the same W-L record against each other. Which was how maths works, not some sort of insight into the evenness of the top 8. This year he said in April that only three sides could win the flag - Geelong, GWS and Carlton. Those three sides went something like 1-8 over the next three weeks, two of them fell away so much that the debate turned to whether they'd make finals, and his analysis obviously ignored the current flag favourite (Sydney) and the next best side (Fremantle). Pre-season he said we weren't going to make finals until we beat Carlton in a pre-season match and then he said we would make finals. Which is stupid because pre-season matches shouldn't make that level of difference to your opinion on any side. I give him plenty of credit for at least looking for the stats and using them when he can. That beats out a fair portion of other commentators who don't even look at the numbers. But that doesn't mean his opinions are good.

I understand the argument for this, but don’t agree with it. It’s clear that we don’t have faith in any of the ruck options (Fullarton, Verrall, Schache). Fine. For those who say “why did we get Fullarton”, I think it’s less about why we got him and more about why he’s failed to impress. We took a punt in some respects, and it hasn’t worked. He should be good enough to get this spot but he isn’t. But even accepting we don’t have faith in those players, we have to balance picking a poor ruck against putting a far more important long-term forward into the ruck against Draper who no doubt will try to bully whoever he gets. I cannot stand seeing JVR in there at the best of times, but it’s not much better thinking that we have to throw Petty and Turner there too. It’s also near certain we don’t play all three when Gawn returns so we don’t need to see what they all look like together I’d have preferred we maintained the same structure by going with the admittedly poor ruck replacement and allowing JVR/Petty/Turner to keep playing as forwards.

Source? (Doesn't surprise me though. I'm a big Disco believer and a huge fan of this news).

Or May, or Lever.

Fair enough. Some would argue we also needed a key forward, or a mid (again, there’s a broader list management issue…).

Bit harsh on Kentfield. Like any kid, maybe try giving him some time? The list management point more broadly is valid. But as much as most of us can’t see how this works, let’s see how it looks first.

So who’s rent free for whom now? Of course, assuming you’re referring to me, the bolded bit is not at all what I said.

I don’t know if we’re playing Fullarton, or whether we’ll try to ruck Petty or even Tomlinson. What I do know is that after JVR’s game yesterday, the last thing we should do is make him ruck any more than sporadically. It’s not like the prospect of Gawn missing games this year wasn’t foreseeable, so it’s now up to the FD to implement whatever plan they have. It’s as bad timing as we could have given our ladder position and the upcoming opponents, but I’m hopeful we’ll view it as a chance to learn something new about our list.

To be fair, breaking even is probably as good as he's been for a few weeks now, and I get why you argue that's a bad thing for us but it's also a good thing - it's not like our good football of late has only occurred with Gawn going berserk. But if we're going to make a charge for finals, with the opposition we have and the lack of ruck depth on our list, losing him is, well, not good.

I think the link, if there is one, is that the spleen injury led to a "reset" of his immune system, e.g. he needs all his immunisations again, and maybe that increased the chance of appendicitis? But obviously I have no actual idea.

'Very sore' Melbourne Demons ruckman Max Gawn in doubt to face Essendon Bombers after scans on sore ankle (afl.com.au) "It's pretty sore, I must admit. I woke up very sore. Obviously played the second half in a bit of distress," he said, while on crutches and wearing a moonboot on his right foot. "At this stage, I'm thinking that (I will miss), just because of how sore it is, but I've seen some stuff that the human body can do and it can certainly turn around pretty quickly." Come on down, Tom Fullarton?

He himself has said today he thinks he'll miss. In a moon boot and on crutches.

Don't want to be too much of a dampener of our spirit on here, but Gawn missing this week is terrible, and missing anything beyond that is even worse. This week is Draper/Goldstein. Then Darcy/Jackson. Then Briggs, who beat an in-form TDK this week.

Yeah. Sort of. But also Sydney supporters have been so arrogant this year. Seeing them start, ever so slightly, to wobble is delightful. And a reminder - you don’t win flags in June.

No, that isn't. That's pessimism. If you don't think we're in the hunt to make finals where we sit right now, that's your pessimism talking. You're entitled to your view, but FFS please stop calling it "realism". It's just your view. PS what were you expecting when you said pre-game "win, and win well, and we'll build momentum and belief". 54 points isn't winning well?