titan_uranus

Hoyne is becoming increasingly difficult to listen to as he gets increasingly bogged down in the data without having due regard for what's actually happening on field. One of his major issues is blurring the line between causation and correlation - for example, is our changed game plan the reason why Oliver is having the worst season of his career, or is Oliver having the worst season of his career the reason why we can't play well? However, the general point he's making here is valid - we've tried playing a different way this year and it isn't working. We're not a threat for the flag playing this way so something has to change. There's too much hindsight analysis here. A perfectly valid argument for why Gawn and Pickett didn't kick their goals, nor anyone else who missed their goals, was that the players were physically exhausted from our taxing game plan which also generated too many low percentage shots on goal (Gawn may have only been 10m out but he was on the boundary). It was a major talking point through 2022, let alone 2023. Yes, our changes to date in 2024 aren't working, but that doesn't mean attempting change was the wrong idea.

And Goodwin deserves credit for this. Not a question mark.

This is a silly argument. We only won it because our elite players were playing elite football? That’s how every flag is won!

I’m going to keep calling this out when I see it because it’s [censored]. 17-1-4 in the H&A season, we beat every other side except one, we finished on top and we dominated three finals. The revisionism on here from posters like you is embarrassing and pathetic. Focus on the problems we’re facing now but if you want to demean our 2021 flag, honestly, [censored] off.

Is it chicken/egg with Clarry? Is there an argument that he is struggling due to the changes? Or is his poor form a primary reason for our losses? I suspect the latter but not sure.

These are poor examples. Hollands wanted to go to Carlton to play with his brother. Bowes had a massive contract which any suitor had to have room for. Sharp was fringe. Picking other fringe player trades which worked and then complaining about our fringe player trades is fine, but hindsight affected. IMO the better argument is the type of players we’ve brought in. Did Billings or McAdam really fill a list need when, even with Gus, our midfield was shallow?

Interesting to me that Goodwin acknowledged that our inconsistency and poor form has been going on all year, not just the last 4 weeks. Good to hear him admit it. Worrying to know we’ve been unhappy with our form all year and it’s getting worse rather than better.

How good was he realistically going to be today when we had 35 inside 50s, 31 fewer than Fremantle? There’s an important discussion to have about Petty but IMO it’s not the priority. The priority is the other two thirds of the ground.

Sydney lost to Geelong last year by 93. Collingwood last lost by 90+ in 2015 to Richmond. But lost by 85 to Brisbane in 2021. Geelong last lost by 90+ in 2014 to Sydney. But lost a certain prelim by 82…

Sorry, misread. You said our window isn’t shut. I’m not sure about our window. I’m in the “our list is severely overrated” camp so for me, these continued poor performances from close to our best 23 mean I don’t see much improvement coming from within (would love the likes of Jefferson, AMW and Sestan to prove me wrong, and I still rate Howes). Can we find the right FAs/trades with whatever cash we have to spend for 2025? Not sure.

-42 in CPs, -25 clearances, -31 inside 50s. I haven’t seen the game but that stat line tells me that it isn’t the tall forwards who are the primary problem.

I agree that @Binmans PA got it wrong by saying we’re a contender but have huge problems. That’s an oxymoron. On our current form we are closer to the bottom 4 than the top 4. On our current form our problems appear fatal to our season.

We now have a bottom 6 percentage. As @layzie said earlier, for the last 4 seasons I’ve had confidence that we can stay in any game, if not by winning then by fighting hard to keep the deficit down. Our record through 2020-23 speaks to that. The WC loss and now today really shattered that confidence. Our percentage being as low as it is shakes me more than I thought it might.

Blissfully overseas and loving SE Asia. That is, until I opened my AFL app. No idea how the game played out other than by reading stats but one thing stands out from the numbers - yet another smashing in the midfield. Tell me again how good our midfield is. And so our run in the top 8 comes to an end. 82 consecutive weeks by my count. I like stats and records so it saddens me that it’s over (would love to know if it’s any sort of record - @WheeloRatings?) but maybe it’s a blessing - time to get real about our midfield, our list and our fitness.

You might be right about midfield depth but were we realistically going to find a midfielder in the MSD who would make a significant difference to our 2024 fortunes?

Gee can’t help but feel Spargo’s ages off, sadly. But good news on Turner and Melksham might be back not far after the bye!

By all means, don’t switch on St Kilda vs Fremantle if you think it won’t be entertaining. But I’d argue that for us, this attitude shouldn’t apply.

They led Fremantle by 26 points midway through the fourth quarter, in Perth, with most of those players missing. I'll believe their demise if/when I see it. Until then, I fully expect them to keep winning.

Both are an issue. There were probably 30,000 of us and 7,500 of them yesterday. But that’s not enough of us. 3.20pm timeslot, beautiful weather, we just need to get more people to these sorts of games. At a time when three Marvel clubs are lobbying the AFL to transfer home games to the G, if we can’t draw big enough crowds I worry we are exposing ourselves to losing home games to Marvel.

Love seeing JVR get a vote. Would love to know which coach that was.

How we defend from turnover is something we need to focus on a bit more. It’s a corollary of how we’re changing how we move the ball and how we set up, but St Kilda are a poor side and still had too much ease in moving the ball from D50 or the back half and score.

That was my view of yesterday. Not necessarily a systemic issue (didn’t take any low percentage shots in the first quarter against Carlton…!). Perhaps it’s our fitness which sees us do better later in games, but I do think we are not starting games well enough.

You’ve mentioned the goalkicking as a negative. Whilst we had a couple of bad misses (Sparrow in the third the worst), this wasn’t IMO an issue of bad goalkicking, but rather us taking low percentage shots - too many from 40m+ out and/or wide on the boundary. We actually outscored our xScore.

I disagreed with almost all of the rest of it. Game plans aren’t aspirational and this conversation isn’t academic. Coaches talk about how they set up to play every week FFS. Nebulous comments about “principles of their culture” are just that, nebulous. Clubs set about instilling whatever principles they want, of course, but that doesn’t happen devoid of also instilling what they want to do on the field. List-wise, Judd McVee’s a star addition to our side, JVR is hugely exciting for a 20 year old and Howes has showed plenty. So whilst our list has holes and isn’t as good as others, it hasn’t been the disaster you suggest it is. The culture and standards haven’t “fallen away” to any relevant extent. You just infer that from our comparatively worse seasons in 2022-23, I think. You named four “very good” players who left. Of those, only Jackson fits that description. Bedford’s the most overrated player in the AFL whilst Harmes and Jordon were in the “regressed” camp. Put some names to the “quality in the market” who we needed but couldn’t afford? And having identified that we need talent in key positions, is it then a problem that we have salary cap tied up in long term deals for our A-graders that perhaps has prevented us from splashing more cash in 2022-23? So yeah. Don’t agree with much of it.

Not sure about the fixture point. We still have Collingwood twice, Fremantle twice, GWS, Port, Essendon, Brisbane in Brisbane, GC on the GC and the Dogs at Marvel. Still four more interstate trips (Essendon by contrast have just two). We’ve done well enough given the early travel but there are plenty of challenges on our fixture still to come.