titan_uranus

Just out of interest, have you ever posted anything that's even neutral, let alone positive, on here?

Anything can be "considered suspicious" if that's how you want to think. Read @DeeSpencer's post in thread about Gawn and whether we cost him an AA spot to understand why Sidebottom was "left alone" (which isn't accurate). OMac in the forward line at least makes sense given our injuries and lack of others to play that role (Preuss last week being so bad as to be dropped). I don't agree with Hore playing VFL but with May, Lever and Frost all in the side was there a spot for him alongside those three? Our fitness has been terrible all season, so unless you think we've been tanking since Round 1, I'm not sure that's a great argument either.

Great post. I don't necessarily agree with all of it (the runner off half-back was clearly not working by HT but we persisted), but at least here is a post from someone who has taken some time to think about the tactics, to consider them in context, and to discuss the pros and cons of them. The Sidebottom thing is a complete non-issue. He's been nowhere near as good as he could be and I have no problem with us focusing on Treloar and Adam (much more damaging in 2019) instead. The "look" of him being alone on the wing was just that, an appearance. Commenting on it without the context of why we had Jones/Salem dropping back indicates superficial analysis (which is too often what we get from David King).

As posted above, that's not what he said. Agree re: your comments on Fogarty. Not sure I agree re: Jenkins, who I don't rate. I do understand the logic though, in getting someone established who might be able to take the first defender, or if not then the second which takes pressure of Weideman. My concern is that I don't think Jenkins will do much for us and so won't hold a spot in the 22, or the first defender.

Can't believe there have been six posts in this thread and none of them have mentioned 186. @Sir Why You Little would be disappointed.

I understand the thinking, but if the season ended today I don't think there would be too many who would disagree with the club delisting Stretch. So what do we stand to do to our list if we give him the last two finals-irrelevant games in a dead season? If he plays well, then what? I don't like the phrase "list clogging" but I fear that is the sort of position we'd be putting ourselves in if we give another contract to a player who has struggled all year but who impresses in the last two dead rubbers of the year. I'd rather put the last two games into younger players who are certainties to be on the list and either in, or fighting for, a spot in the Round 1 side - e.g. Baker or Lockhart.

Just to clarify, that's not what he said. He said if he was playing now he thinks it would be hardest to get a kick on Frost than the other two. It's probably accurate when compared to Lever, but not May. May's copping it for being repeatedly injured but his actual performances when he's been on the park have been everything we should have expected from May, and more. Pretty crap from Riewoldt IMO. In saying all that, Frost is one of only a handful players who have improved in 2019 compared to 2018. My preference is to sign Frost up and build our defence around him, May and Lever as the third tall. He should be a starting 22 key defender, and as such there shouldn't be too many better offers from rival clubs than the one we put forward, assuming we put forward a reasonable number of years and money. The only alternative, IMO, is to use his currency as one of the few uncontracted players on our list with any currency at all, to trade him out to bring in something we need more than a key defender (with the argument being that we have cover in that part of the ground in the form of OMac, or Hore, or something like that - I don't agree, but it's arguable). But if we do that, we'd be looking to either cash in on a solid draft pick(s) or bring in something we need more than Frost (e.g. a key forward, a skilful/pacy winger).

You can react however you want. But you've chosen a pessimistic reaction, which is par for the course for you. An alternative would be to consider 2019 in the context of 2014-2018. Given the changes the club implemented and the progress we made over those five years, alongside the capabilities this list showed in 2018, I don't believe the only reasonable reaction is to say we're back to 2007 (or back to 2014, or back to anything really). I'm more than happy to say I believe we can turn it around in time for 2020. And before anyone misinterprets, this doesn't mean I think we will turn it around. It means I think we can turn it around.

Given our percentage we're not moving up with one win anyway. If Carlton and Sydney can both beat St Kilda (doubtful, but possible) then we could win both games and still not move up from 17th.

So we're not even in the bottom four worst performers of the round! (GWS, GC, Essendon, North)

So I've gone and taken a look. All four of Mihocek's goals are in the highlights video on the AFL website. The first one, which it seems is the one you're referencing, Lever had the front position covered but the kick, cleverly, went behind them allowing Mihocek to run back with the flight. The second one was a panic-hold from Lever. So that's definitely one against him. The third one Lever slipped and Adams' kick was perfectly placed. The fourth one Lever wasn't in the contest. And how do you say the tackle stat is relevant? For context, Scharenberg, Mayne and Howe (all playing in key defensive posts for Collingwood) had 0 tackles. Hibberd, JKH and May also registered donuts. So it's not like Lever was on his lonesome on that front. One - watching the replay I don't think that's a fair summation of it at all. Two - agree Three - doesn't look lost to me, looks like he slipped and Mihocek got off him. Granted, I think one of Lever's problems is he's not particularly quick, so he's going to get caught on leads a bit I think. Anyway, certainly one he gave up, maybe two, but not all four, and if these are the sorts of goals he's giving up then I'm not as fussed as it seems others are.

Sure, Mihocek kicked 4, but at the game I never felt like that was because he was beating Lever (e.g. I didn't see him beating Lever in one-on-one contests, or leading him to the ball). Again, I might be wrong about that. Do you recall (or can you find video of) Mihocek's goals being a direct result of poor play by Lever?

I genuinely don't understand the Lever criticism, which I suppose might mean I'm on my own in thinking he was OK. He could be better, and we all want him to be an AA-defender week in and week out, but I thought he was pretty good today. There are so many other parts of our game today that stood out to me as problematic rather than Lever. As I said, maybe I'm on my own on this, but I really think too many have stupidly high expectations of him, the more so when the commentary around someone like Preuss is generally far more positive.

Not by Clint Bizkit's standards. Like praha and BBP, it's glass half empty, always. IMO saying our list isn't good enough and that we need to start again, aside from being pure pessimism, just isn't a reasonable position to take based on this year in the context of the last five years. If we struggle again in 2020 then that will change things, but given what we did with our list and culture from 2014-2018, I don't accept that 2019 is enough evidence to say we're cooked and we need to rebuild.

I've read somewhere that May barely had a soft tissue injury at the GC. He's now had four (three hamstrings and a groin) in 6 months here. I've also read that the GC wanted him to carry more weight than we did, so when he arrived we wanted his skinfolds lower. I'm not an expert (@Webber might be able to comment?) but I can't help but query whether the way we've managed May's body since he arrived has impacted on him in a way that has exposed him to soft tissue injuries.

6 - Petracca 5 - Fritsch 4 - May 3 - JKH 2 - Lewis 1 - Salem

I'd be most keen to see one of Viney, Jones or Brayshaw out of the side, to see what that does to our midfield mix. But I doubt that will happen. We'll probably just see Hore replace May and maybe Wagner or Baker get dropped for another fringe player.

Yep I agree with you. They need the percentage and they need to build form for their final two 8-point games. I reckon people saying they put the cue in the rack are just looking for things to be negative about.

Our fixture this year gave us home games against Essendon, Collingwood, Richmond and Hawthorn, along with a Friday night vs Sydney. We'll get ANZAC back next year and then every year we'll get one of them as a home game guaranteed. The risk was that the Collingwood, Richmond and Sydney games were in the final month which meant that we needed both sides to be going well (particularly us) in order to draw big crowds. The rain at both the Richmond and Collingwood games didn't help but the fault rests almost entirely with us for failing to be competitive when the big home games came around.

IMO they didn't beat us, we beat ourselves. When we limited turnovers we were on top (first and fourth quarters). When we turned it over we gave up score after score (second and third quarters). And we couldn't hang in there because we kept missing easy shots. We're clearly trying to move the ball differently, with far more kick-mark than playing on and handpassing. The problem is that too many of our players aren't good enough at this gameplan for it to work for four quarters. Hibberd, Viney and Jones are a massive part of our current problem. All three turn it over by foot far too much, Hibberd destructively so. Viney isn't adding enough as a midfielder and Jones is really lost out there position-wise. Hunt shouldn't be played in the backline again. He's either a forward or not in the side. Ditto Fritsch - what a waste of a season by playing him back/wing for so long. There's some really terrible commentary about some individual players in this thread though. JKH was one of our best, Lever was actually quite good, and although I don't like OMac at all he did a better job of a tall forward/second ruck than pretty much everyone else we've tried there recently. Gawn was down on his best but Grundy didn't dominate at all. They sort of nullified each other but that's not an unreasonable result when the two best ruckmen play each other.

The only reasonable explanation I can think of for OMac getting a game along with Frost, Lever and May is that one of them is going to play forward/ruck. That does not sit well with me. Hore should be playing, OMac shouldn't, and we should still be able to find someone to relieve Gawn.

I don't agree with them getting pick 2 but I don't know that this is a decent argument against it. Those three wins were vs the Dogs, Carlton and Fremantle, and the loss was to St Kilda. Not exactly a taxing month. Since then they've only gotten within 4 goals of their opponent three times in 15 games (vs us, St Kilda and Essendon).

Good research. TMac/Weid's drop in form is certainly a part of our problem but it's not as simple as the OP's analysis suggests. We didn't play a single repeat game until West Coast a few weeks ago. They're in a five week stretch from Round 18-22. The season was shot by Round 18. The double up games have pretty much played no role, at all, in our season.

Interesting stuff, thanks @fr_ap. The TMac/Weideman stuff is interesting but I'm not sure it's as simple as analysing the specific defenders each one has played on, given the quality of ball coming at them. The handball receives stat is a pretty good indicator of one of our big problems.

Why the bump? Some sort of news?