titan_uranus

I've never bought the loading theory as being any significant reason for us going from 10-0 to 13-5 prior to last week. I also don't think that loss = no loading and win = loading, either. But the way tonight played out doesn't sit well with the notion that we've set our season up to be at our fittest right now: First half we had +22 more CPs. Second half only +2 First half we laid +8 more tackles, despite having +47 more disposals. Second half we were outackled -20 despite the disposal gap staying roughly the same (+46) They laid 26 tackles in the tight fourth quarter, double our 13 We dominated territory in the first half with +23 inside 50s. Second half just +1.

Tonight's loss is devastating, a classic 8-point game against us. A win would have borderline guaranteed top 4. Beating Carlton is now non-negotiable, but still might not be enough to make top 4 if we then lose to Brisbane. To make top 4 by beating Carlton but losing to Brisbane, we'd need three of the following to happen: Collingwood loses to both Sydney and Carlton Sydney loses to one of North, Collingwood and St Kilda and we hold our 2% gap over them, or they lose twice or more Brisbane loses to one of Carlton and St Kilda and we hold our 5% gap over them, or they lose twice or more Fremantle loses to at least of the Dogs, West Coast and GWS Remember, three of those have to happen for us to hold onto top 4 with a loss to Brisbane. So if you think we'll beat Carlton but lose to Brisbane, you are barracking for the Dogs and Carlton tomorrow (also North...but that's not happening). If Brisbane wins tomorrow, you're then turning your focus to St Kilda beating Brisbane at Marvel. And whoever loses out of Sydney v Collingwood, get around their opponent in Round 23 (either Carlton to beat Collingwood or St Kilda to beat Sydney).

It's all going to come crashing down for them. The only question is whether that happens before the flag is won this year, or after. There's nothing sustainable about what they're doing, it's all crazy high confidence and emotion. The game was on our terms in the first half. Much of the reason we weren't further in front by half time was our own doing, not theirs. That opens the door for a confident team riding on a huge crowd and feeding off all that emotion to get a head of steam, all of which is credit to them, but if we had had a lead at half time which reflected our first half dominance (17 points did not reflect it), they would have had a much harder task ahead of them. Fully expect them to regress significantly in 2023 as history tells us the odds of them getting this sort of run of luck is 0% (look at Port, great record in close games last year, can't buy a win in them this year). But it won't matter if they ride this out for six more weeks and get the flag in the process.

Only 85% TOG for Lever? Is he injured/unfit? That's very low for him.

@binman - not sure the loading plan involved us, in Round 21, having an extra day break against a side on back-to-back six day breaks and then being steamrolled in the second half...

+93 disposals. +22 CPs. +20 clearances. +24 inside 50s. +1 extra day break on our opponent, who was coming off back-to-back six day breaks. That should be a 5-goal win, not a loss.

Livid. 6 losses this year. 5 of them we've led by 20+ points.

3-0 - we finish 1st or 2nd. 2-1 - we will make top 4 unless Sydney go 3-0 and make up the 5% gap. If Brisbane loses to Richmond tomorrow, then Brisbane also has to go 3-0 and make up whatever percentage gap they have over us too. 1-2 - we will make top 4 unless three of the following happen: Collingwood goes 3-0 or 2-1 Brisbane goes 4-0 or 3-1, or 2-2 and makes up the 6% gap Sydney goes 3-0, or 2-1 and makes up the 5% gap Fremantle goes 3-0 Side watch - Carlton can still miss the finals. They have Brisbane (away), us and Collingwood. If they go 0-3, they'll finish on 12 wins and are a good chance to be overtaken by the Dogs, who have GWS and Hawthorn and so should get to 12 wins as well, and are only 3% behind. Indeed, they could be passed by the Dogs even if they go 1-2, if the Dogs beat Fremantle next week. If they go 0-3, they're also a chance of being passed by Richmond, who would need 3 wins from Brisbane, Port, Hawthorn and Essendon.

If Brown's fit, he comes in for Weideman. If Jackson's unfit (he was hobbling at stages of the game), he shouldn't play. In that event, I reckon we'll bring Brown in for Jackson and give Weideman a reprieve, to play Jackson's role. Big decision to make if Harmes is fit. Not sure who makes way. ANB is struggling on offence but he had 31 pressure acts, our second-most last night. We focused on being "ruthless" all week and our pressure is key. I reckon ANB's safe. Sparrow is similar, but IMO making more mistakes and with 19 pressure acts to ANB's 31, IMO he's more in the gun. Cannot see an argument for Hunt or Rivers to be dropped, I thought both were good.

I really liked some of the performances of our "lesser lights" last night - Spargo, Rivers and Jordon all felt to me like they got some form back, and I have to give credit to Melksham as he played better than I expected we'd see from him. When we dominate contested ball like that, and we bring all-ground pressure, we are right in the thick of the flag hunt. We didn't bring that, at all, last week against the Dogs, and we didn't bring close enough to it against Geelong and Collingwood. This week we showed Fremantle what happens when we step our game up (and we're not missing May and have a one-legged Petty). Next week, let's hope we bring the same heat and show Collingwood something they didn't see on Queen's Birthday.

Get around Port, GWS, Adelaide and Richmond (to beat Collingwood, Sydney, Carlton and Brisbane respectively). Let's see how many of last week's results we can reverse this week.

@binman - well done

Huge "8 point win", that. 25 scoring shots to 14, +20 inside 50s and +25 contested possessions. Back playing the way we want to play.

@binman I think you've gone a bit too hard on this one. I think the messaging from the club this week indicates that we've focused on our effort levels. This happens a lot, there is a key theme at the club and key words permeate through press conferences and quotes from players. This week "ruthless" and "buy in" seem to be a theme. I reckon we've had a chat this week about the selflessness and effort that got us to the flag last year and how, perhaps, now is the time for us to lift that effort. I personally reckon too many of our best 22 have had a gear they've not been going to that they showed last year, and unlike you I do not pin that all down to loading.

Second consecutive six day break, no TMac, no Brown, no Harmes, Jordon questionable fitness, Lever questionable fitness, Oliver still recovering from a broken thumb, flying across the country to play on a slop of a turf against an opponent Fyfe and Switkowski short of full strength with an extra day's break. Get around us. Season-defining win coming up tomorrow night.

5, actually (3 vs Collingwood, 1 each vs Fremantle and Adelaide). The rest of these two posts really leaves a lot to be desired and makes me grateful you have nothing to do with running our club. Parts of them very arguable, if not flat out wrong (he's not "one paced", he can kick, albeit not at an elite level like Salem or Bowey, and he is as defensively reliable as anyone in our side), they are premised off a position you know nothing about (the value of his salary), and they ignore the clear benefits we get from Gus culturally and through his leadership. I also have no idea about the logic behind the "panic move" comment. You really think the club, suspecting Jackson's going to leave, took extra money/years and threw it at Brayshaw out of panic? After everything we've established in our list management over the lsat 5-7 years?

Good memory re: Essendon. We didn't have a home game against them for 9 years (2010-2019). Brisbane also didn't have a home game against Hawthorn for 8 years (2008-2016). Meanwhile we've been to Geelong 17 times in the last 21 seasons...

As an aside, this is Fremantle's first home game against us since 2015. Which is utterly ridiculous. I wonder whether there is any other match up in the competition where a side hasn't had a home game against another side in 7 years.

JVR an emergency. Getting closer now. Chandler could well be the sub, which I don't think is a very good option. A small forward offers very little if a tall, defender or mid go down. Given we already have Spargo, ANB, Pickett and Melksham in the starting 22, unless he's subbed on for one of them we just get so out of what. At the very least, Dunstan as a midfielder can slot into the middle and push, say, Petracca forward (if the injured player is a forward) or Brayshaw/Hunt back (assuming one of them is playing midfield).

The Doctor’s right, old dee. You’d have jumped up to say “no, fact is we only won 2 of those games, last time I checked a draw is not a win”.

It’s really hard for me to read posts from lifelong Melbourne supporters, who I’ve shared the misery of 2007–17 with on here, say they’re not enjoying a season in which: 1. We’re 13-5 with a percentage of 128% and sit 2nd on the ladder 2. We play regular prime time games 3. We’re a key focus in the weekly TV shows and podcasts 4. We’re watching three of our greatest ever players play elite football on a near-weekly basis It’s crazy what one brilliant season can do for expectations. After years of being irrelevant, losing most weeks (sometimes in dispiritingly non-competitive fashion), and with few stars on our list, I relish watching us every week this year, even if I’m concerned we’re not going to win the flag because we’re not in good enough form. I really worry that those who aren’t enjoying it right now will look back on 2022 in the future when we’re tripe again some day and regret not relaxing slightly, accepting back-to-back flags are [censored] hard, and enjoying us being so good that even when we’re pedestrian we’re the competition’s 2nd best side.

Do they? I’m not being sarcastic - I just don’t know of players saying there’s no difference. Perhaps there’s little difference between 7 and 8 day breaks, but we know 5 day breaks are a bugbear of the AFLPA so there is clearly a difference between 5 and 6, and I’d hazard a guess a meaningful difference between 6 and 7 days too. But of more importance IMO is the timing of the breaks (this week is our second consecutive 6 day break), as well as the comparison to our opponent (last week the Dogs had 8 days off, this week Fremantle has 7). Last week as an example - on Friday night the week before the Dogs got home from playing St Kilda and commenced preparation for our match. In that time frame, we flew to Alice Springs, played in 20+ degree warmth, then flew back again, then started preparation on Sunday night. It’s often seen as a cop out but when we got steamrolled in the fourth quarter, I can’t help but think the shorter break and differing preparation played a role. Yes, across 23 rounds we all start in the same weekend and finish in the same weekend, but it’s not the impact on the overall season that matters, it’s the impact week-to-week. IMO we’ve had it reasonably tough.

They’ve only lost one close game, to Brisbane. Yes there is some skill to winning close games, but there is also most definitely luck. The bounce of a ball, a free paid/not paid, your opponent missing a set shot, etc. You need luck to win close games and history shows that sides don’t repeat their luck too often. Collingwood is riding their luck to historically ridiculous levels. Power to them, but it is unlikely to last forever, or even for another 8 weeks.

As @Bring-Back-Powell said though, because the Dogs are already 8th, they’re already in. So someone out of the 8 has to pass us for us to miss. That has to be St Kilda or Richmond. So if you’re thinking about whether we miss, either Richmond wins out and gets to 13.5 wins, and we lose out, or St Kilda wins out and gets to 14 wins (and we lose out), or somehow they win 3 games and close the 25% percentage gap (and we lose out). It is highly improbable that one of those sides wins all 4 of their remaining games, and we lose all 4 of ours.

Oh come on now, it's not good enough to beat a top 4 contender at their home ground, we now have to do it by 4-5 goals or else you'll write off our season? Far out.