titan_uranus

This is a classic example of focusing on a stat without having any regard for context. Their shots were misses because they were taking shots from awful positions. Take a look at the shot map. 8 of their 12 behinds were from 45+ metres out, most of which were on a 45-degree angle or more. Another two behinds were hard up on the boundary. They were taking shots from outside 50 because they couldn't work out how to take a mark inside 50, because of our defensive dominance. If you think tonight was just "some good defence" I'm sorry but you have no idea what you're watching. Tonight was elite defence.

We were 50 points up with 10 minutes to go. We're coming off six day breaks including two trips (from GC, and then to Adelaide). We gave Langdon a rest on the bench late. That tells you all you need to know - we were not busting our gut completely late. We were dominant. Yes, disappointing we didn't blow them to pieces and there were a few frustrating moments, but we toyed with them. Now we're 4-0 and we've already ticked off two interstate trips. May outstanding (but for that late dropped mark), loved Jordon's game, Gawn found form, Brayshaw put in another great game in defence, Harmes was solid and Lever got through well. Neither Weid nor TMac were any good. I don't mind who gets dropped for Brown, but there should be no doubt that one goes. Pickett is doing a lot defensively but just cannot get in form with ball in hand. And I'm still not convinced by Hunt.

Smith has never played more than four games in a row, which he has only done once: Rounds 15-18 in 2020. He's otherwise only played three games in a row a few times, including just now.

What's with all the "hope Brown doesn't have COVID" stuff? Is there a rumour I missed? Given we've already flown over, I suspect the answer to the Brown situation is that he couldn't fly with us today and so couldn't take part in adequate preparation. So we give Weid and TMac another game and unless both dominate, one is going to make way for Brown next week (IMO Brown is a walk-up start). I've never been much of a Smith fan and thought his game last week was poor in patches, but even I can acknowledge how unfair and harsh it is for him to be forced out due to COVID. He deserves to come straight back and pressure will be on Tomlinson and Hunt, you'd think. Having said all that, so great to see Lever back.

Agree, although I'm pretty confident the Dogs will be making finals this year, so at this stage I'd be confining the lottery to 7th and 8th. Carlton's repeat games are against Richmond, Collingwood, Adelaide, GWS and Fremantle. Right now Richmond, Adelaide and Fremantle don't look like threatening Carlton much, so that's not a bad draw. But as you say, their post-bye run is pretty tough, particularly the last few rounds. Problem is, their next five are GC, Port, Fremantle, North and Adelaide. I don't want to alarm anyone...but...8-0 is not completely out of the question for Carlton. I reckon Heeney satisfies that pretty nicely.

Agree, but would add that until we get the defensive reinforcements back, we're at risk in any game where we get badly beaten in any clearance, and/or if we turn it over at half-forward. Last year we could cover for either/both of those with our backline. I'm not confident that with Hunt, Smith and Tomlinson playing together, we'd be able to continue to cover turnovers or quick clearances against.

I'm not sure how important this is any more. At that time we were training TMac to play on a wing. After what happened with Brown/Weideman, TMac was moved back into a key forward role and, aside from Round 1 this year, that's all he's done since then.

I found some of it on the AFL app. Maybe they've decided to move that data to the app, for reasons which escape me entirely,.

If you're talking about this season, it's still too early to know for sure but it seems the sides who will be pushing for top 4 alongside us are Brisbane, Sydney, Carlton, Geelong and, I'd argue, the Dogs. The Dogs are one of only two sides to have opened the season with three games against sides currently sitting in the top 8 (they've had us, Carlton and Sydney; Essendon's had us, Brisbane and Geelong). They admittedly have a tough fixture (repeat games against us, Sydney, Geelong, GWS and Hawthorn) but I think they will work out a forward structure in Bruce's absence and their midfield will alone be enough for most of the rest of the competition. Hawthorn, Fremantle and Collingwood are all in the 8 but I'm not convinced by any of them, Fremantle least so. Both Hawthorn and Collingwood I think are starting the season with vigour from their new coaches and their refreshing approaches, but IMO as the season presses on they will find themselves increasingly worn out.

Christian Salem says hi. I agree with you when you argue that TMac can (and does) play a role in the side. The problem is he's just not playing it well right now. If Brown is 100% unquestionably ready to go, IMO TMac has to make way as we have to reward Weideman's performance at AFL level after getting his chance on the back of hard work and persistence (listen to Goodwin and all the players talk about how much they valued his decision to sign a new contract, buckle down and work hard over summer to earn another chance - they cannot, and IMO will not, drop Weid after a 4-goal game on return). TMac's saving grace will be, I suspect, if Brown isn't ready to play because he hasn't been able to properly train for a week. They may decide not to risk it and to leave Brown out another week. That would then give TMac another chance to stake his claim, and would ask Weid to go again and show it wasn't a fluke.

Yes and no - yes, ultimately what matters most is the score so if we’re winning by 5 goals then the frequency of their scores isn’t so important. But pre-2021 one of our biggest flaws was that when sides got through our forward half press they scored at will. Last year that was not the case and it meant if our forward half game was off we didn’t automatically lose. The two parts of our game work together and I’m confident the FD would be disappointed with 51% last night. IMO stemming from May struggling with Wright and the Hunt, Tomlinson, Smith trio not being near the Lever, Salem, Petty combo in terms of reading play, zoning and intercepting.

How about the Essendon win last year? Or the North and Adelaide wins last year?

39 inside 50s is an incredibly low count. But you can see the defensive issues we have right there with the 20 scoring shots. That’s a score from 51% of their entries. In the first two rounds we conceded the lowest and second lowest number of scores from inside 50s conceded, down in the low 30%s. So the fact it jumped to 51% last night indicates a concern with our backline, but also different sort of game/win (Essendon conceded territory by flooding more than GC or the Dogs did).

He won’t be dropped and nor should he but he wasn’t great tonight and our biggest problem right now is mistakes in our back half, which he, Hunt and Tomlinson are largely responsible for.

What? He dropped two marks which directly led to goals. His best game was just two weeks ago in Round 1 and this was miles off that. 6 - Oliver 5 - Brayshaw 4 - Bowey (this kid is unreal) 3 - Langdon 2 - Weideman 1 - Harmes

Brown straight back. Weid holds TMac out. TMac either goes back or dropped. Lever back. Hunt out I think. We can’t get the four missing defenders back quick enough.

Jeepers this thread is the Demonland of old. We have five best 22 players out, including four from the backline. We had A-grade players down on form (Gawn, Trac, May). We were horribly inaccurate early. We were off a six day break from a humid GC game. But we scored 99 and won by 5 goals. That’s a remarkable win IMO. We are supposed to be dropping games right now with our outs - remember Richmond in one of their flag years lost a stack of games early when they had injuries but rallied late? Essendon flooded back and dragged us down to their level. Teams are going to do that and when we’re not perfect we won’t blow teams away each week. @praha’s got this 100% right. Oliver outstanding, Brayshaw fantastic whilst being played out of position. Loved Jordon’s run, and Weideman surely pushes TMac out next week. Problems of course - the Hunt, Tomlinson, Smith trio are no good in the same backline and all three at times struggled tonight. Pickett’s struggling to get involved on offence, but his defence is still there. Spargo is sort of everywhere and nowhere. And Gawn’s badly out of form IMO. But honestly, we’re 3-0, already knocked off two of last year’s finalists and a 2022 finals contender, and we have seriously good cavalry to come back. This is happy days, not sad.

Agree with the previous posts on the commentators. Dwayne Russell is frustratingly OTT. Dermott hates us and every time he commentates on our games focuses almost exclusively on our opponent. And Healy is the new Sandy Roberts; so incredibly past it. There are so many good commentators available, it baffles me that Dwayne and Gerard are doing multiple calls per Round on TV/radio. I cannot for the life of me understand how anyone can watch football in silence. I'll take rubbish commentary over no sound at all.

You can mount an argument that every game we play this year is a danger game. Two of our four losses last year were to non-finalists, plus we drew with Hawthorn. Essendon can look a million bucks when they get going. But the reality is they play unaccountable football and don't work hard enough in defence. They were never any good last year, making the finals off the back of just one win against a top 8 side and 11 wins in total. Like with any opponent, if we're off our game we can lose. But I would absolutely love to see us "on" this week. The original plan was that the AFLW Grand Final was going to be on Saturday afternoon and they wanted to give it clean air, so they had to move a Saturday afternoon game to another timeslot. COVID ruined that plan though. Demons missing: Lever Salem Petty Hibberd

Wasn't sure where to rant about this but a thread called Stats Files might be right. Last year the AFL released a whole load of stats on players on a site called AFL Stats Pro. You could look up a player's career and season averages for pretty much all stats, and you could compare up to five players. This year - gone. Not replaced, or changed. Just gone. I cannot stand the stranglehold Champion Data has on statistics in our game.

Wait what's with all the posts about Howes debuting? Is he really in line to play? Wasn't in the named bests for Casey on the weekend and doesn't appear to fill any sort of need in our side?

We did it in Round 1 too, throwing Fritsch behind the ball from centre square bounces in the fourth when the game was very much done.

Good post and I don't really disagree with your comment on our defence and the need for Lever to come back. But out of interest I had a look at the stat for scores conceded from inside 50s against. The Dogs scored from 31% of their inside 50s, and Gold Coast 32%. Those the two lowest rates in the 17 games played so far. Next worst was North vs Hawthorn in Round 1 at 34%.

In May's post-game interview, he mentioned Bowey copped a couple of injuries/knocks, and also that Rivers probably came back "early" from his knee injury. Probably keep a watch on those two this week.

I thought this thread was going to be about how we now are on a 10-game winning streak against Gold Coast.