The Oracle

Since we are due to play both Essendon and Sydney in the next few weeks, one would expect Goodwin watched the game closely. I hope that he’s worked out a forward strategy that doesn’t involve us in constantly kicking to a one on two situation in front of goal where we constantly cough up the footy time and again. I didn’t see much of that in the game at the SCG or anywhere else other than our forward line over the weekend. This has to be fixed.

Thanks. I was going to apologise to Linda for any responsibility in her being pregnant but it didn’t read well. Fixed anyway ... and apologies to both ladies. ?

It’s out ...

Good to see that Preuss has been working hard during the off season so far. This time last year there was a lot of talk about the respective roles of he and Max under the new 666 regime but in the end, he spent a lot of time at Casey and with our KPF’s falling down, it all unravelled. Could his fitness be the key to a renewal of hope for the set up we expected to do so well for the team 12 months ago?

There’s a lot of talk round here that Melbourne should split its pick 3 with the GWS Giants and take pick 6 and something else but I’m suspicious of this because in car dealing language, the pick is a lemon ?! Check out the chart from the AFL Draft Guru site Historically, players who have been selected at 3 have played an average of 132 games compared with 57 for pick 6. At pick 7, the average is almost more than double at 133 games. Pick 6 is jinxed - we tell GWS no to that pick. https://www.draftguru.com.au/

I was in Fitzroy Street, St Kilda this morning and to my horror, I happened on the Gatwick which appears to be undergoing some change. Who allowed this and where are the former residents?

The Trade Period runs till Wednesday. The Free Agency Period is now officially over.

Apparently returning to his local roots. Wishing him good luck for the future - nearly two seasons out with hamstring issues is no fun.

Well, the official Free Agency period has come and gone and the world hasn't come to an end. There hasn't been all that much activity with Tom Lynch being the big fish among free agents. There were some other fish caught and nibbles for a few others but it wasn't all that much of a big deal in my book and there are 10 free agents left without a deal. The next lot of free agents on the menu are the delisted free agents but they don't come into play yet.

Pretty sure it’s Bugg’s turn to play the senior emergency role.

Check out WJ's post of 29 July in which he discusses Murphy on this thread.

This is the full list of 2017 AFL Draft Combine Invitees:- Vic Metro Noah Balta (Calder Cannons) Andrew Brayshaw (Sandringham Dragons) Tyler Brown (Eastern Ranges) Adam Cerra (Eastern Ranges) Nick Coffield (Northern Knights) Charlie Constable (Sandringham Dragons) Matthew Day (Oakleigh Chargers) Lachlan Fogarty (Western Jets) Joel Garner (Eastern Ranges) Sam Hayes (Eastern Ranges) Jack Higgins (Oakleigh Chargers) Hayden McLean (Sandringham Dragons) Dylan Moore (Eastern Ranges) Nathan Murphy (Sandringham Dragons) Trent Mynott (Eastern Ranges) Patrick Naish (Northern Knights) Tom North (Eastern Ranges) Ethan Penrith (Northern Knights) Jack Petruccelle (Northern Knights) Mitchell Podhajski (Calder Cannons) Cameron Rayner (Western Jets) Ned Reeves (Oakleigh Chargers) Ed Richards (Oakleigh Chargers) Jackson Ross (Eastern Ranges) Jaidyn Stephenson (Eastern Ranges) Ryley Stoddart (Eastern Ranges) Angus Styles (Sandringham Dragons) Will Walker (Sandringham Dragons) Toby Wooller (Oakleigh Chargers) Vic Country Aiden Bonar (Dandenong Stingrays) Jordon Butts (Murray Bushrangers) Hunter Clark (Dandenong Stingrays) Oscar Clavarino (Dandenong Stingrays) Brent Daniels (Benigo Pioneers) Luke Davies-Uniacke (Dandenong Stingrays) Tom De Koning (Dandenong Stingrays) Aiden Domic (Greater Western Victoria Rebels) Paddy Dow (Bendigo Pioneers) Kane Farrell (Bendigo Pioneers) Ethan Floyd (Geelong Falcons) David Handley (Geelong Falcons) Bailey Henderson (Bendigo Pioneers) Changkouth Jiath (Gippsland Power) Jordan Johnston (Greater Western Victoria Rebels) Harrison Jones (Murray Bushrangers) Matthew Ling (Geelong Falcons) Tom McCartin (Geelong Falcons) Matthew McGannon (Gippsland Power) Lloyd Meek (Greater Western Victoria Rebels) Gryan Miers (Geelong Falcons) Lochie O’Brien (Bendigo Pioneers) Ben Paton (Murray Bushrangers) Angus Schumacher (Bendigo Pioneers) James Worpel (Geelong Falcons) Western Australia Brayden Ainsworth (Subiaco) Oscar Allen (West Perth) Callan England (Claremont) Kyron Hayden (Subiaco) Tim Kelly (South Fremantle) Ben Miller (Subiaco) Aaron Naughton (Peel Thunder) Jake Patmore (Claremont) Brandon Starcevich (East Perth) Sam Taylor (Swan Districts) South Australia Charlie Ballard (Sturt) Callum Coleman-Jones (Sturt) Darcy Fogarty (Glenelg) Jordan Houlahan (Sturt) Nathan Kreuger (South Adelaide) Alex Martini (Glenelg) Andrew McPherson (Woodville-West Torrens) Harrison Petty (Norwood) NSW-ACT Jarrod Brander (Bendigo Pioneers) Brendan Myers (Wagga Tigers/GWS academy) Jack Powell (Ainsli/GWS academy) Nicholas Shipley (St George/GWS academy) Charlie Spargo (Murray Bushrangers) Queensland Connor Ballenden (Wests Juniors/Brisbane Lions academy) Brayden Crossley (Labrador/Gold Coast Suns academy) Jack Payne (Noosa/Brisbane Lions academy) Northern Territory Zac Bailey (Southern Districts/Norwood) Adam Sambono (NT Thunder) Tasmania Hugh Dixon (Kingborough Tigers) Pie father-son prospect among Combine invitees

There's another interesting team selection along these lines being from Round 1, 2013 when the teams last met at the MCG. It was Ken Hinkley's first game as coach of a club that was going through a rough trot. MELBOURNE Backs Lynden Dunn Tom Gillies Dan Nicholson Half backs Jack Watts James Frawley Colin Garland Centreline Jack Viney Jack Grimes Jimmy Toumpas Half forwards Jeremy Howe James Sellar Colin Sylvia Forwards Shannon Byrnes Mitch Clark David Rodan Followers Mark Jamar Jordie McKenzie Nathan Jones Interchange Sam Blease Matthew Jones Cameron Pedersen Luke Tapscott Emergencies Aaron Davey Jake Spencer Dean Terlich New Shannon Byrnes (Geelong) Tom Gillies (Geelong) Matt Jones (Box Hill VFL) Cameron Pedersen (North Melbourne) David Rodan (Port Adelaide) Jimmy Toumpas (Woodville-West Torrens SANFL) Jack Viney (Casey VFL) PORT ADELAIDE Backs Tom Jonas Jackson Trengove Campbell Heath Half backs Jasper Pittard Cameron O'Shea Lewis Stevenson Centreline Matthew Broadbent Brad Ebert Kane Cornes Half forwards Justin Westhoff Paul Stewart Angus Monfries Forwards Chad Wingard Jay Schulz Jake Neade Followers Jarrad Redden Hamish Hartlett Travis Boak Interchange Matthew Lobbe Kane Mitchell Andrew Moore Oliver Wines Emergencies Jack Hombsch Daniel Stewart Aaron Young New Campbell Heath (Sydney) Kane Mitchell (Claremont WAFL) Angus Monfries (Essendon) Jake Neade (North Ballarat U18) Lewis Stevenson (West Coast) Oliver Wines (Murray U18)

And so did Geelong after he joined them.

If you think the 2017 draft is going to be good, what about 2018? Is your future now? Clubs weigh up picks ahead of 2018 'super draft'

This article covers some of the players who missed out - The snubbed AFL draftees that deserve rookie lifelines. A few points regarding the rookie draft:- • Adelaide are able to take Ben Jarman and Geelong Sam Simpson as automatic rookie selections provided they aren't taken in the Pre Season Draft on Monday. • None of the Casey players in the mix were drafted yesterday. I'm expecting at least two of them to be rookied. • Norwood's Alex Villis was originally expected to be a first or second round selection but has been diagnosed with a heart condition that is potentially career threatening. • The decision as announced by Jason Taylor that the club will only take 2 rookies even though there are 3 vacancies on the rookie list is a bit of a mystery. The club is usually open about these sorts of matters - I wonder if they're go to tell us why?

The AFL Bidding System for academy and father son selections is fairly complex and its lucky the recruiters will have the advantage of computers at the draft meeting. I tried to work it out and came up with this - based on the Chris 25 PD posted above by WJ. Each selection in the AFL National Draft up to Pick 73 has a points value under the AFL Bidding System In the example, GWS selects Andrew McGrath with its first selection- Pick 2. Carlton bids on Will Setterfield with Pick 5 and GWS agree to match this. Pick 5 is worth 1,878 points and they get a 20% discount which means the cost to GWS is 1,502 points. GWS's next pick is Pick 15 which is worth 1,112 points. They then lose 390 points from their next pick. That pick is Pick 37 which is worth 483 points which means on the above scenario, that pick is now only worth 93 points to GWS. North Melbourne bids on Harry Perryman with Pick 12 and GWS agree to match this. Pick 12 is worth 1,268 points and they get a 20% discount which means the cost to GWS is 1,014 points. GWS have 93 points left on Pick 37 and will have make up another 921 points requiring them to use Picks 39 (446 points), 45 (347 points) and 52 (246 points) to get Perryman and they will then have 118 points left over. So when Carlton bids on Kobe Mutch at 27, GWS thinks twice and decides not to match the bid. Next, we have North Melbourne bidding on Harrison Macreadie with Pick 34 and GWS agree to match this. Pick 34 is worth 542 points and with the 20% discount, Macreadie will cost GWS 433 points so they need to find another 315 points. This means they have to use up another two picks to get Macreadie. Picks 55 (207 points) and 57 (182 points) will leave them with 74 spare points but they now have used up 7 draft picks to get four players. This is all based on Chris25's belief that Carlton would go for Setterfield at 5 and that GWS would match the bid. GWS would be in trouble if Essendon picked him with 1 at a cost of 3,000 points discounted to 2,400 but better off if the bid came at say 9 which would cost 1,469 points discounted to 1,175. The question is how many vacancies do they have and how far can they go? My guess is that they would be fairly limited and probably wouldn't be competing against too many more bids if they come early enough.

It's the penultimate day of the free agency and trade period and the action should really start hotting up today as the clubs have just 1½ days to finalise their trades. This is the traditional time when the most business gets done and we can expect a few last minutes surprises as clubs jostle for players and draft picks. Melbourne's main business is to secure Michael Hibberd from the Bombers, a club traditionally regarded as hard to do business with but most in the industry believe it will get done. It also appears that loyal servant Lynden Dunn will find a new home in the Magpies' nest today. At least after tomorrow things will start returning to normal if that's possible in football.

Amid the controversy of the Mitchell/Lewis departures from Hawthorn, I read the story of what some might consider was Melbourne's equivalent - The day the Dees traded a Brownlow medallist. I remember this was the subject of great angst and criticism from a packed house at an MFC members information night at Camberwell Town Hall not long after the trade was announced.

The NAB AFL restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period has come to an end and an equal record low of four free agents have found a new home. Fourteen free agents yet to secure future Predictably, our own Jack Grimes hasn't been taken but with a bit of luck, he will be picked up as a delisted free agent. Clubs get no compensation for delisted free agents and in fact, there were only three cases of compensation given during the free agency period. There has been talk that the compensation factor will be eliminated altogether in the near future, a move that IMO can only hurt the weaker clubs further.

PART TWO - FOR GOD'S SAKE ... SOMEBODY SEND US THE STEAK KNIVES !!! by The Oracle In my dream a full five days have elapsed since the wheeling and dealing started. Everything moves ever so slowly ... every movement is in slow motion and most of the people are speaking in words slurred as if they are half drunk. There's one person in the room who looks out of place. He's wearing a brown and gold coloured jacket and smoking a Cuban cigar as he deals from a pack of cards to half a dozen faceless men. The smoke from the cigar rises and curls in the air. He draws the Jack of Hearts, shows it to the other players, places the card face down and grabs the notes that sit in the middle of the table. There, he's just moved Brad Hill and Sammy Mitchell to clubs in WA. In comes Ty Vickery and Tom Mitchell. On the face of one of the notes he just picked off the table the words "NAB National Draft Selection # 10" appear. He turns over another card and it's the King of Diamonds but the face is familiar - that of Jaeger O'Meara. Lurking furtively in the shadows around a corner, I get a fleeting glimpse of someone else now running out of the room. Could it be Jordan Lewis? He disappears from view as the gambler deals his next card. The Ace of Clubs. I turn around and there's a skeleton sitting at the card table. I wake in fright. Leaving aside the frenetic activity of the Hawthorn Football Club, there hasn't been much going on over the past five days of the free agency and trade period. Collingwood picked up a couple of unrestricted free agents, St Kilda and Fremantle (not Carlton) were the first to claim players from the GWS Giants and the Saints have exchanged draft picks with the Hawks. A week after Brisbane was gifted a priority pick, the Lions traded out national draft selection #2. How does that happen? And Melbourne? The Demons have apparently spent the last 120 hours negotiating with the Bombers over whether to hand over this year's second round pick or next year's. During that time the club's current best draft pick has moved back from number 26 to 29. We're going backwards and, after a whole week haven't even collected a single steak knife! DONE DEALS SO FAR: Tyrone Vickery moves from Richmond to Hawthorn as a restricted free agent Daniel Wells moves from North Melbourne to Collingwood as an unrestricted free agent Cam McCarthy, pick 7, 34 and 72 move from GWS to Fremantle in exchange for pick 3 Chris Mayne moves from Fremantle to Collingwood as an unrestricted free agent Brad Hill traded from Hawthorn to Fremantle in exchange for pick 23 Pick 3 and 16 traded from GWS to Brisbane in exchange for picks 2, 31, 51 and 60. Jack Steele moves from GWS to St Kilda in exchange for their 2017 future round two pick Sam Mitchell, pick 54 and 72 traded from Hawthorn to West Coast in exchange for pick 52, 70 and 88. Tom Mitchell and pick 57 traded from Sydney to Hawthorn in exchange for pick 14 and 52 Pick 10 and 68 traded from St Kilda to Hawthorn in exchange for Hawthorn's 2017 future first pick, and this year's picks 23 and 36

As you can see, nothing spectacular on the cards:- "Draft selections: 27, 45, 63, 81, 99 Unsigned free agents: N/A Delistings/retirements: Jack Grimes, Matt Jones, Dean Terlich AFL.com.au says: Michael Hibberd is first on the shopping list with the club and player committed to each other. Selection No.26 should be enough to get Hibberd, although Essendon has been historically tough to deal with at trade time. The Demons will want another ruckman to support Max Gawn while they are open to trading Lynden Dunn to the Brisbane Lions."

Good luck to them:- Frankston Dolphins adopt motto ‘keep your feet’ as club fights to rejoin state

Tweet from Paul Amy who writes mainly about the VFL in winter sports and is a well respected journo - "Won't be a surprise if @CaseyScorpions forward 'Bull' Smith gets an AFL listing at age 25. At least two clubs are talking about drafting him"

It is from the Fox stable after all. ?