Axis of Bob

I think they have some academy players coming next year, so my guess is that they'll try to roll them over to next year through trades.

I disagree with this. I think may is going to be used in the second tall while Oscar continues to get the number 1. The idea will be for May to be an intercept marker, because he had that skill, along with Lever while Oscar does the donkey work of keeping the best forward on the ground. May is a contest winner and a potentially excellent rebounder and would be wasted playing as a key stopper.

He appeared to have a lot of talent from what I saw of him. I hope a change of scenery works out well for him. Gold Coast would be a tough place to stay out your career.

Even more importantly, it allowed us to use pick 25 on Jack Viney, instead of pick 5. That was the 'deal' that wasn't a deal but was definitely a deal. So they really would have been viewing it as pick pick 3, 13 and 25 for 5, 20, Hogan and Dom Barry (who we got from their zone), IIRC.

Exactly, it's about the system rather than people playing man on man. Oscar, like the Richmond players or Schofield at WC, is there to provide body contact to stop players jumping at the ball. May comes in to provide flexibility as he will monster second forwards (like Rance) and is a capable rebounder. We don't need a full back, we need a marking second tall defender.

How would you compare Oscar to, say, Nathan Broad or David Astbury?

Also, should we get May, the overwhelming likelihood is that Oscar and May play in the same team. It isn't one or the other.

Now replace Hogan's name with Jeremy McGovern's. Now think about what they are being asked to do. Hogan, in his limited time in the midfield, actually does play like a defender.

I cannot overstate how much I love this nickname.

We may pay slightly more, but the quality of player willing to come to us will be much higher. Players know that we will do the deal so they will choose us over other teams. This could well be what has happened with Steven May, as he'd be more likely to choose us over Collingwood knowing that if he commits to us then his future is secured. The alternative is having slightly better draft picks ... but players win games, not draft picks. Certainly not in our current situation.

No, you're now saying that instead of a Porsche I would get a Malvern Star. I would want more than just pick 5, and we'll get more. It's the amount not that we differ on. You originally wanted 3 low picks or no deal. I thought we'd get a low first rounder plus a later first rounder/equivalent player. The main thing you are missing in these negotiations is opportunity cost. Are you willing to spend it on upgrading the second pick we get for Hogan, or are you willing to spend it on potential deals that may happen later in the trade period?

It depends if you waste so much time getting a Porsche that you lose the opportunity to buy a better house. Or you end up spending a year living in your Porsche.

Bryce Gibbs would have really helped in that Grand Final. But at least they didn't lose the trade. ?

The points are used for bidding on academy/FS players but it comes from an academic study looking at the relative worth of draft picks. It seems to be pretty close, of you think about how much you'd pay to do pick swaps. For example, 10 and 16 together are about as valuable pick 3 or 2 (but we got other assets from Adelaide, so it went down to about 7). If you wanted pick 1 you'd probably trade at least pick 5 and 12 for it to be fair. If we got 5 and a pick better than 13 then it's basically worth pick 1 in terms of its historical value to the club, which makes sense for Hogan. The points value is a pretty good indicator of player/pick value which is why they use it when they can.

Because that wasn't the full deal, only part of it. There were other picks moved about plus pick 5 is a much better pick than pick 10 and pick 16. Overall it was the equivalent of about pick 7.

Pick 5 by itself would have Freo paying more than we did for Lever. Anything on top is just making the difference greater

The reason we would be so into Preuss is because he's the type of ruckman that would work well in our system. He's really good at using his body to control the area into which the ball falls. He isn't a subtle touch player but he's strong and helps a team with a really good inside midfield. If Max goes down we're stuffed. But with Preuss we can rest him strategically within and between games and still be able play or style of football knowing that we can attack stoppages. Plus an injury to Gawn won't automatically mean that we can't win the flag anymore.

Surely Pittard, as it'll be a salary dump to help the deal across the line. Pittard was a free agent last year but signed a sizeable 3 year extension before spending a lot of the year playing magoos. North can only offer their pick 11 for Polec but by taking the last 2 years of Pittard's contact off Port (who are squeezed with some terrible contracts) then they can add some value to the trade .... but they can't be so far off that they need to take Hartlett's monster contact, surely.

For all Brisbane have been a basket case in the past, they have been getting themselves together in the last year or two. Fagan's appointment was not sexy but it was a mature decision that shows the football community that they are professional organisation. Plus they have shown promise on field for a successful future. Neale has shown that he obviously doesn't rate Freo's next 5 years, or that playing football at the FFC is not enjoyable for him. Probably the later, given that there had been talk around him leaving for SA during previous contract periods. Either way, it's a terrible situation for Freo. They certainly need Hogan to sell some hope to their supporters. For Jesse, what price would you pay to go home?

One of the things we have to get used to is that our first round picks aren't worth that much any more. When we say 'first rounder', that includes everything from pick 1 (insanely valuable) to about pick 20 (not that valuable). So two first rounders can be significantly less than the value of a single first round pick (19+20 is the equivalent of pick 5). So when we talk about 'first rounders', we probably need to be more specific with our language now.

People who are looking at May replacing Oscar are barking up the wrong tree. May would be about creating a structure, which is what the best teams (West Coast and Richmond) do well. The backline would likely be Oscar, May and Lever together. Oscar playing the same role he is now (bodying the opposition's best forward) with May as a strong rebounding tall who can play on a good player and Lever playing as a contest killing rebounder. This structure is very similar to the well structured teams. Schofield/Broad/Oscar as the negative body player, McGovern/Rance/May as the tall rebounder and Barrass/Grimes/Lever as the flexible contest killer. Having May could turn a weakness into a strength.

So pick 5 is already more than we paid for Lever. If Jesse is traded, we aren't going to get two top 5 picks IMO. We may get a top 5 plus a later first rounder or players to that value.

There is a lot of talk about us paying two first round picks for Lever, however that is a very narrow snapshot on a small part of the deal. The deal involved other picks (including a second rounder to us). 10 + 16 + 68 out, 37 + 43 + Lever in. If you do the sums with the points then it was effectively a single pick 7 for Lever. Ironically (correct usage) Adelaide knocked back or initial offer of 10 and 29, which would have equated to pick 4. Effectively 'caving into Adelaide's demands' got us 2 second rounders in exchange for dropping our 2019 first rounder 13 spots and bringing it forward a year.

Fremantle will only have pick 6. That's it.

We got on a role late, but that was not due to not having Hogan. I think we're looking at the wrong thing. We were already playing well. Hogan held is together at the start of the year, then TMac came in and we dominated. It was only a poor 3 weeks (where Hogan was down on form) during the middle of the year (Coll, PA, StK) that caused damage. Then we'd won 4 of 5 (only Gee after the siren) when Hogan got injured early in the Sydney game. I think the "the team is better without Hogan" line is rubbish.