At the break of Gawn

Consecutive straight sets for us I think. Carlton will most definitely win tonight. They defend their D50 better than anyone.

Extremely flat this morning. Last year’s QF I just felt we were genuinely outplayed and came to the realisation we’re just not that good. This year I think there’s no real stand-out team in our way and it will genuinely be a missed opportunity if we don’t win it this year. We absolutely shot ourselves in the foot. Just dumb, easy to defend entries, time after time. We were our own worst enemy. I suppose instead of looking at the last 6 weeks of form, all we really needed to focus on was the last 3 weeks was leading to this game. We’re averaging just 68pts per game since Petty went out. In my mind, we’re just an upmarket version of the Saints. What worries me the most is if we do go out in straight sets again I really feel it may break this group. What’s the point of finishing top 4 in season if you can’t win a final? I think it will severely dampen this teams confidence and even our supporter base for next year if we can’t win at least one final this finals series.

Collingwood actually defend their inside 50 really well. They have been off for a few weeks and they’re vulnerable on transition, but if it’s just bog average repeat entries, they’ve got 4 very good interceptors (Moore, Quaynor, Murphy and Howe). I listened to Sparrow after the game on SEN and the coaches were trying to get them to add more speed on the ball and different angles but we couldn’t execute as well. In my opinion, this game was extremely similar to QB. The only difference was that Fritsch nailed his set shots that game. I’ve got no confidence against Carlton next week (if we play them). They defend their D50 better than anyone. To think we’ve gone from winning a flag to staring down 4 straight finals losses is inconceivable.

I’ll just leave this here: Goodwin: “In finals, your vulnerabilities are exposed” Our vulnerability is our ability to score. It’s been our vulnerability for 2 years, and we thought we could fix it with an old forward who hasn’t played AFL footy in months

Not great conditions for Cox or Cameron either

Rain is here

Did anyone hear Craig McRae say to the reporters “See you in a couple of weeks” at the end of his presser on Tuesday? Its been reported by Code/HS that his little quip angered a few of our officials and some players

That’s true, but Sydney had won 7 in a row before facing us, yet the amount of confidence going into last year’s QF was pretty high from memory. I’m hoping the Pies are like us from last year and we’re like the Swans (except for the GF thumping)

I haven’t done a game day tip for some time, but I’m trying to convince myself that end of season form does really matter and that’s why we were exposed in the finals last year and went out in straight sets. Surely the end of season form we have this year and the end of season form the Pies have does mean something and we will see that translate into a win tonight. Dees by 22. If we lose tonight and lose against Carlton next week, I don’t think I’ll ever be able to trust in-season form again!

Rain is only an hour away.

What is the consensus on the rain? Do we want it to come because of how tall Collingwood have gone or are we still wary about our ability to win in the rain? Goody did address it in the presser and he seemed confident we’ve learnt from those experiences and are better placed, so maybe rain isn’t a bad thing.

For the past 6 weeks, Melbourne is 3 for scoring and 3 for points against. We’re in the top right hand corner of the Premiership window metrics. Collingwood is 5th for points for and 14th for points against. Just for reference, Geelong was 1 and 1 the last 6 weeks in 2022 before finals. We might not win tomorrow night, but the Pies aren’t winning the flag.

Not as much as 2021. Joey was calling us premiers in round 2.

Gawn will be D50 most of the night. With McDonald there we have that outlet kick. The fact is, it’s going to be a wet game. Hibbo’s cleanliness at ground level will be essential to our d50. If it was a dry game, I have no doubt Turner would have played. Also, watch out for an early tactical sub of Cox or Cameron if it does rain. Ginnivan will come on and we’ll need someone for him which suits the Hibbo choice.

So I had some time on my hands and using Fox Footy's Premiership window metrics, I've collected the past 6 weeks For/Against Scores and this is what it currently looks like. One thing I can say with certainty, that Collingwood are no where near the premiership window over the last 6 weeks. Port is the best team over the last 3 weeks, however we're the best team over the last 6 weeks. The only thing that's dragged us down the last 3 weeks is our points scored. To be honest, this is my main concern going into tomorrow night. Will we kick a big enough score? This is the graph for 3 weeks While this is the graph for the past 6 weeks

Hopefully the media asks Goody about Smith.

I’ll sell you my house if Grundy is selected.

Pleasantly relieved by this. It’s those sort of players that bob up against us.

Three changes is too destabilising for mine. I thought Turner was actually pretty good and I don’t really see any Collingwood forward getting a hold of him. If Cox wasn’t playing you could take out Turner and put Hibberd in which could give coverage on Elliott. I wouldn’t be surprised if Goody had Hibbo as sub as a back up on Elliott In: Hibberd (Sub), Tmac Out: Laurie (Sub), Melksham

Listening to Hoyne on Sportsday and he thinks the biggest threat is Elliott (I’m also worried about him). He’s Collingwood’s no.1 rated player the last 6 weeks. Salem was also called out. At the moment he’s a bottom 60 player in the competition which is alarming.

Not sure if anyone else saw the Herald Sun Finals Crystal ball article, but this is the summary: Premiers: Collingwood x 8 Melbourne: x 3 Brisbane: x 2 Runner Up: Brisbane x 8 Collingwood x 1 Melbourne x 2 Port x 1 Giants x 1 Straight Sets: Port x 9 Melb x 3 Pies x 1 Also, a big [censored] you to Scott Gullan who thinks we'll go out in straight sets and somehow thinks Port will get past Brisbane and go all the way to the grand final with all their patchy form/injuries.

The decision to play both Cox and Cameron will backfire for Collingwood with the wet weather. Did anyone see Cox play against Port in slippery conditions? Had about 2 touches and was a liability.

Which show did he call it a fluke? That’s pretty disrespectful if true. We’re the only team with 3 consecutive top 4 finishes at the moment. We’re nothing like the 2016 dogs.

Are you sure? I think their win against Port in Adelaide it rained or at least seemed like a slippery game.

Weather app has gone up to 2-8mm (Friday is just as bad). My only hope is that because the forecast is saying most likely in the afternoon and evening it pushes back to late in the night. More often than not, the rains comes later not earlier.