At the break of Gawn

I think we’ll throw everything at Carlton and put in a really spirited performance (just like in round 22) but ultimately fall short because of the lack of forward talent and mix.

Expected score is a fallacy and I really hope Goodwin doesn’t just think our forward efficiency is just a simple fix. I hope the FD pauses the tape at every inside 50 and shows where the better option was. Also the lack of leading is extremely concerning. It’s either they’ve been directed not to because the FD just wants deep entries or the forwards are lacking some sort of confidence.

Finishing 3rd would have been much better in hindsight. A free hit at the Lions at the GABBA while they have all the pressure on them. Then if we had lost, an MCG home final against probably the Giants where we would have had the 19th man

I think we need another mid as the sub. We need extra mids coming through if Trac is to play forward and we can’t be robbed of that again if someone like a Viney goes down. I also think we’ll need an extra tall down back if Silvagni plays.

Voss has said McKay is in the concussion protocols.

I’m not fussed about McKay playing or not. If he plays we will probably play a third tall which will suit us. The weather looks dry all week so it’ll be a dry deck. Martin not playing is a bigger win. He was very good against us last time.

Why were the Fox commentators lauding Sydney for their comeback but bashed us even though we did exactly the same thing?

Carlton have been better without McKay to be honest. They won’t miss him next week.

More likely to turn it into fever pitch.

Both. Doesn’t matter how fired up we come out next week. We’re unable to kick a winning score.

Straight sets coming up again for us.

I think Schache has to come in. At least he’s a reliable set shot. Grundy into the side and moving Gawn forward will tempt the mids to bomb in long again. We brought Grundy in against Carlton last time and couldn’t even crack 60pts.

💯. The coaches and media were lauding our defensive prowess but no one was pointing out that we were averaging 60-70pts the last 3 weeks before this game.

Consecutive straight sets for us I think. Carlton will most definitely win tonight. They defend their D50 better than anyone.

Extremely flat this morning. Last year’s QF I just felt we were genuinely outplayed and came to the realisation we’re just not that good. This year I think there’s no real stand-out team in our way and it will genuinely be a missed opportunity if we don’t win it this year. We absolutely shot ourselves in the foot. Just dumb, easy to defend entries, time after time. We were our own worst enemy. I suppose instead of looking at the last 6 weeks of form, all we really needed to focus on was the last 3 weeks was leading to this game. We’re averaging just 68pts per game since Petty went out. In my mind, we’re just an upmarket version of the Saints. What worries me the most is if we do go out in straight sets again I really feel it may break this group. What’s the point of finishing top 4 in season if you can’t win a final? I think it will severely dampen this teams confidence and even our supporter base for next year if we can’t win at least one final this finals series.

Collingwood actually defend their inside 50 really well. They have been off for a few weeks and they’re vulnerable on transition, but if it’s just bog average repeat entries, they’ve got 4 very good interceptors (Moore, Quaynor, Murphy and Howe). I listened to Sparrow after the game on SEN and the coaches were trying to get them to add more speed on the ball and different angles but we couldn’t execute as well. In my opinion, this game was extremely similar to QB. The only difference was that Fritsch nailed his set shots that game. I’ve got no confidence against Carlton next week (if we play them). They defend their D50 better than anyone. To think we’ve gone from winning a flag to staring down 4 straight finals losses is inconceivable.

I’ll just leave this here: Goodwin: “In finals, your vulnerabilities are exposed” Our vulnerability is our ability to score. It’s been our vulnerability for 2 years, and we thought we could fix it with an old forward who hasn’t played AFL footy in months

Not great conditions for Cox or Cameron either

Rain is here

Did anyone hear Craig McRae say to the reporters “See you in a couple of weeks” at the end of his presser on Tuesday? Its been reported by Code/HS that his little quip angered a few of our officials and some players

That’s true, but Sydney had won 7 in a row before facing us, yet the amount of confidence going into last year’s QF was pretty high from memory. I’m hoping the Pies are like us from last year and we’re like the Swans (except for the GF thumping)

I haven’t done a game day tip for some time, but I’m trying to convince myself that end of season form does really matter and that’s why we were exposed in the finals last year and went out in straight sets. Surely the end of season form we have this year and the end of season form the Pies have does mean something and we will see that translate into a win tonight. Dees by 22. If we lose tonight and lose against Carlton next week, I don’t think I’ll ever be able to trust in-season form again!

Rain is only an hour away.

What is the consensus on the rain? Do we want it to come because of how tall Collingwood have gone or are we still wary about our ability to win in the rain? Goody did address it in the presser and he seemed confident we’ve learnt from those experiences and are better placed, so maybe rain isn’t a bad thing.

For the past 6 weeks, Melbourne is 3 for scoring and 3 for points against. We’re in the top right hand corner of the Premiership window metrics. Collingwood is 5th for points for and 14th for points against. Just for reference, Geelong was 1 and 1 the last 6 weeks in 2022 before finals. We might not win tomorrow night, but the Pies aren’t winning the flag.