At the break of Gawn

I watched Lyon's presser and he mentioned the local school football team wears the Saints colours which may have been why.

For those just blindly blaming our inaccurate kicking need to have a look at the shot map in wheelo's stat files. We barely get any opportunities straight in front. For all the strides we've made over the last 6 weeks, our forwards continue lead into the pocket leading to difficult shots on goal. The Saints used the corridor much much better for better quality entries. They kicked 7 goals basically dead in front within 30m. Our entries still aren't good enough, and if you go back and watch the QF against the fifth in '23 you'll see the same thing. If you pressure the opposition and force them wide, guess what? They have difficulty converting. Given how close the competition is, I think we need 14 wins to definitely make it. That means we basically can only afford 2 maybe 3 more losses for the year but still have Collingwood twice, Gold Coast in GC and Adelaide away.

Absolutely [censored] me that Petty and AJ give away some of the most unnecessary free kicks. Unless AJ has a remarkable last 3qtrs, then there's surely no way he plays next week. JvR actually worried Moore a bit last year so I'd definitely bring him in.

I think if we get off to a good start and the Saints players start to doubt whatever strategy Ross has cooked up, we could turn this into a big win. Dees by 57pts.

Really need to win tomorrow to stay amongst the pack. If we lose, we're then 2 games outside the 8 and then a red hot Pies, Port away and GC away.

Giants and Freo winning makes tomorrow really important for us to stay in touch. A win and we're still only one game outside the 8. A loss and we're 2 games out and face s red hot Collingwood.

We're going to challenge the Pies far more than the Hawks are. You need an A grade midfield and a dominant ruck to challenge Collingwood. The Hawks have neither. It's a pity our kicking was so bad against the Hawks a few weeks ago, we really should have won that.

I agree that does make sense, but I also get the sense there was some attitude shifts from round 6 onwards. Pressure and the manic tackling inside 50s are all effort based. As Goodwin talked about, there seemed to have been a lack of focus on the things we value defensively. That was switched back on from round 6 which has complemented other parts of our game. It would have been nice for that shift to have happened earlier because being 0-5 gives us so little room to make a really good run for finals.

Even Carlton are in the top handful of teams who transition well from the D50 to their forward 50 but are 18th for scores per inside 50. I'm not sure you can really hang your hat on that stat when it's not a complete picture of ball movement in regards to scoring. Also, most of our scores are coming from forward half intercepts, not via the back half. The added defensive pressure, the tackles inside 50, the way we're changing angles on entry are all contributing. Clearly there was an emphasis on forward 50 tackling pressure too from round 6 onwards. It's been off the charts since the Freo game.

Again, the stats don't support this. A significant shift in our ball movement, defensive pressure, territory and forward half intercepts all started from round 6 onwards. I find it amusing that Binman questions this when the first thing on the Freo episode of the podcast he mentions the change in our pressure rating which has clearly gone through the roof since round 6. I'm not saying they weren't working on it all summer, but I am saying that the players clearly weren't executing it properly. Take our forward handballs as an example. We basically had no forward handball game before the Freo game. Suddenly, it's brought out and it's obvious for all to see. In round 1-4 Oliver had close to a 50-50 kick-to-handball ratio. In round 6 he had 20 handballs and only 5 kicks. Do you think he just woke up that morning and decided to handball more that game instead of getting direction from the coaches?

Then why don't the stats support this? Surely we would have seen some of this in the earlier rounds.

I have to admit I had already considered Goody gone after the Essendon game. This is a guy who has been nothing but stubborn in his tenure, and always playing his favourites. What him and the coaching staff have been able to do is pretty amazing. I'm not sure what meetings took place the week of the Freo game, but clearly there was a change in our playing style from that game onwards like what the data suggests (no team changes angles more than Melbourne the last 6 weeks). My guess is that they knew that if we rolled out the same method, we'll get killed by Freo. The plan worked which has then given clear evidence on how much it can help us I don't buy the 'teething issues' excuse to start the season. There was a fundamental change in how we played from round 5 onwards. It was bold, but it's bloody worked well.

That's true. Ross might throw a curve ball. This week's game is a game I think we just win on sheer talent. The saints just don't have the cattle to go with us.

That's correct. We were the fastest but playing boring, straight-line footy. We're not the fastest anymore but we're the king of changing the angles.

I actually think we'll eclipse the Syd win with an even bigger win against the Saints (who I rate really lowly). The Saints seem to be spiraling big time - perfect time to play them really.

Pretty chuffed with myself that I predicted that this would be our biggest win of the season to-date yesterday morning on the game day thread. The belief in this group is really growing. I actually feel we've got a real level of trust with how we play, which was completely absent in 2024. I get the love for AJ because he's just a competitive beast that will scrag and do anything to compete (even with giving away free kicks) but he's probably one of the least skilled AFL players on a list at the moment The opportunity is right there for JvR to jump up and take that spot. I would trust JvR for a shot after the siren on a tight angle, I wouldn't trust AJ from the goal square. I agree with PF on this one. Our best 23 has JvR over AJ.

Melbourne now moved into $1.90 favourites (Swans $1.94). Seems like it took all week to finally move!

I wouldn't be surprised if Darcy Moore gets booed on KBD though.

I actually think this could be out biggest win of the season so far. Syd have improved their game but they can't score and they have some big outs. We'll be full of confidence after last week so I think we'll win easily here. Dees by 41.

How did we lose to North? We should be beating them by 6+ goals later on this season at the G.

Might be a few Collingwood outs for KBD with how things are going.

Coincidentally Petracca's 150th game was against the Swans. Which game you ask? The qualifying final in 2022 when he fractured his leg and we found out that back to back wasn't likely to happen anymore. Time for pay back. Thankfully this Swans side has half the talent of that side that beat us that night.

I thought McDonald would have been a much better matchup for McLean who troubled us last time. Syd have improved their defensive game by a fair bit. They're the hardest team to move the ball against between the arcs the last 6 weeks and the best ground ball team the last 6 weeks. We need our small forwards to be absolutely on song to beat them. Thankfully the Swans can't score for [censored] so even if we get to 80pts we'll probably win.

Hopefully Goodwin addresses it in his Presser tomorrow.

Out: Sharp, Johnson In: Lever, Viney Turner will be moved forward. He's actually pretty good at ground level and he's in great form. Petty to be back up ruck. Like it or not, we just can't have 4 tall defenders so Turner has to go forward. I'd prefer AJ over Petty in the ruck, but Petty's marking and contest work edges out AJ. I'd put Spargo as the sub as I think Fritta deserves a full game after his efforts.