fr_ap

A word of warning on the 'third youngest team' thing - that's quite a bit of a misnomer when a lot of our success relies on May (maybe 2 years left at best), gawn (maybe 2 or 3 but he's had a heavy few years), Hibberd (1 year after this probably). They are three key cogs we absolutely cannot replace any time soon. Arguably in the best spot in the ruck with Jackson - but May in particular and Hibberd are irreplaceable and there is no-one in the twos pushing for their spot. Maybe Bowey for Hibberd, but that's not like for like IMO. Bowey being groomed for the Salem QB role. We all know May is irreplaceable and the window with him at the peak of his powers is closing. Unfortunately, another year or two to mature might be what trac, Oliver, Jackson, rivers and kossie need, but by then it might be too late. The list demographic challenge is very real.

It's an interesting situation - I think a few of us need to take a deep breath. Fact is every club other than the Bulldogs are looking at us are envious of our position. Until next week at least. I think the combination of the lack of any large margined dominant wins, together with our fragility as a supporter base, is creating this sense of panic that really isn't justified. Personally I've never had a season where we just...keep on winning - I think it's natural that then when we lose, we get dramatic and think the wheels are falling off. We've known nothing else for our football supporting lives. The evidence says we've met every serious challenge this year under a variety of different circumstances -beat red hot Sydney despite playing poorly ourselves ('winning ugly') -reversing momentum against one of the best front running aggressive teams in the comp (Brisbane) -going after the wounded champion (Richmond) -systematically dismantled the gameplan and contest skills of our nearest competitor (WB) Whilst we beat Geelong, there were missing a host of their best players and I'm not sure we'd fare as well against their full strength 22. Unfortunately those who have led the charge - Petracca and Clayton - are immature. There are weeks or months (apparently) where they lose focus, lose application and lose consistency. The forward line is also generally very immature. It's no coincidence that Kozzie's drop in form has corresponded with the team's drop in form. Barring injuries to May and Lever, our defence will keep us in most games. The rest will turn on the mood and attentiveness of Petracca and Oliver. Think about the week to week consistency we get out of May, Lever (who is a very old young man), Hibberd, Gawn, Tom Mac, and the quietly mature Langdon. If we had that sort of consistency of output from our prime movers - Petracca, Oliver, Harmes, Kozzie - we'd look a lot more like a premiership team. The forward line needs work in general but I honestly think that lack of maturity is the problem. We just can't rely on our game changers to show up on any given week or even in any given quarter. We can fiddle with structure, we can add BB in, etc etc....I can't help thinking that is all academic. Our fortunes will rise or fall on the mental positioning of our prime movers come finals time.

Some of you need to remember where we've come from I've no idea why some of you think the team defence was off - i thought the adherence to the gameplan was at season high levels. It was evident extremely early in the 1st when they just couldn't move the ball and continued through the night. A lot of their goals came from stringer breaking lines (not many can do what he does, so I'm comfortable with that) or individual errors from our players. Fact is we kept an extremely high scoring team that has been on a hot run of form, to a very low score. And we did it happily letting their mids get heaps of the ball. Agree with the poster who suggested that whilst we looked like we lacked a target and Weid/BB may have been able to add to our score, I don't think we would have been able to defend them the way we did if another big tall was in the fwd line, given the dynamism of their back half. Defence first wins again. I thought the horses for courses selection in that regard was terrific. It also felt like a frustrating win because of the inaccuracy. Most other weeks that's a 5 goal win and it would have been shut down much earlier. There are weeks where that happens and we fought through it and won anyway Arguably up there with our best wins for the year. Wasn't pretty and wasn't free flowing so it doesn't feel like it, but I think on reflection it was. Koz will be fine, needs feedback to focus on simple things but he's still learning. For a 2nd year player the impact he and LJ and Riv have our team is immense. They'll all have ups and downs - ATM LJ is definitely up! (Despite the brain fade)

Absolutely Love Oliver but he's such a bloody head case. Wins it like no other and gets clear looks to put it i50 - proceeds to stop, pivot, handball sideways or backwards to players on their back foot. Needs to grow up - gawn had 4 cracks at him tonight A brilliant player, brilliant - but childish. Would love choco to mentor as the kid has no ceiling

Fair enough - wasn't referring to you directly, moreso the general vibe of these weekly threads where collectively we seem to have a laugh about opposition fans thinking they're a chance against us. Don't get me wrong - I'm all for deriding them for being Essendon more generally as drug cheats etc - but I personally don't blame any of them (nor the Pies fans last week) for being optimistic against a team that has done nothing but let us down for the best part of 10 years This week's thread has actually been far more humble than the Collingwood one and K2P you're right in that you never said we cant lose it. Apologise for the misrepresentation

Hilarious and ironic that some accuse them of overconfidence....much like they did the Collingwood fans that thought they had a chance Surely we still realise we can lose to anyone on our day with our only losses coming to bottom 4 teams?

The goal was great but far from the most impressive thing.... rewatch the 4th quarter - there is a play near the end where it was impossible for Richmond not to score - it starts on the members side wing/hff for Richmond and eventually ends up in the pocket near the Anzac flame. Between the wide shots and the close shots - nibbler is pretty much never out of frame - he goes and goes and goes and goes and goes and eventually the ball falls into his lap and he mongrels the ball out of bounds. A Richmond guy near me at the game said 'how did we not manage to score there? I implore you to find it and watch it - you will see his value to the team. The goal from the boundary was just a bonus

I just posted saying I was wrong mate Read recent comments

I've now watched the replay and the pile on was right. I was wrong. Kossie threw a baby half elbow that barely brushed mansell's chin, and then Mansell reacted by wrestling koz to the ground. And Kozzie post-goal was much less taunting than I originally thought. Thanks for calling me out all I particularly enjoyed Bolton saying 'come on, come on' to Viney - like he would last 3 seconds in that fight. He then went and decked Oliver for the 2nd free. How good!

Glad to hear Goodwin was having a word. Mentioned in his presser too that Kossie needs to deal with the attention better. More or less vindicates my concern so I'm not sure why it's hyperbole. I haven't seen the incident in full in replay but from what I could see, Kossie somewhat instigated it. Agree with what you're saying though - passionate young kid who will mature in time. Just need to watch he doesn't overstep it in the meantime as I said, because the media narrative can quickly turn on him and like it or not, that can impact performance and careers. If a Richmond player had done this, we would be baying for blood and calling him a sniper. People were already calling Mansell a thug and sniper and he barely did anything.

I actually don't disagree with many of their observations. Many dees fans around me were embarrassing with their gloating - was a fantastic win and no one knows what it's like to have been a dees fan, but you'd expect some humility given all we have gone through. It is only April. I don't agree that Tigers fans weren't like this in 2017 though. I recall they were, led by Riewoldt on field. I might be the only one but I didn't enjoy Kozzie's actions in the 4th. Mansell had held him well all day (with some sniping/rough stuff but par for the course) and Kozzie was sick of it. Elbowed Mansell in the head and then held his knee on his throat....and somehow received the free kick. Then kicks the goal, goes back to the 3rd gamer for more and taunts him and points to the scoreboard (against the reigning premier no less). Think he lost a few fans tonight. I generally love his aggression but I hope the coaching staff can knock this on the head and ensure he stays humble. It's not the first time I've seen him do this either - he's dumped people off the ball before and gets away with it because he's small and exciting (check his snap against Geelong - was only free to run at the ball because he'd dumped someone). Maybe I shouldn't care...Michael Long was a career long sniper and is remembered for all the other reasons

I'm so sick of this narrative. The idea that a professional sporting team, which is by design playing at its maximum potential if the coaching staff and players perform their roles, can 'lift' for an occasion and suddenly become 10/20/50% better than they otherwise would have been is just pure nonsense. It implies that collectively they have been leaving something in the tank in other 'non occasion' games. Or that they are lacking motivation to perform in the absence of a milestone. Inevitably, the team that performs better on the day/night in terms of executing their roles, strategy and football skills will win the game. It's as simple as that. The media love these stories as they are sentimental and easy to understand, but it's just not a concept that holds any water. In this example I'm not sure how the passing of a club great would cause 22 unrelated men to collectively raise their output. In all likelihood, the Lions were just the better team on the day. As we were in Spud's game.

For those jumping on me for knocking him, yes I did watch him on the weekend. I've watched him since he joined the list, at training, in intraclubs and generally in every game he's played. I agree he was fantastic on the weekend and his pressure and aggression alone will be enough to get him games given the MO of our forward line this year....Spargo wouldn't want to have a few quiet weeks in a row. For me he was BOG ahead of Weid. I maintain though, and this is evident if you watch the weekends game without bias, that his disposal is his significant weakness. Short kicking could not be further from A1 if it tried - honestly can't believe someone has said that. He's got very little control (and the speed at which he moves Is no doubt part of the problem - see Treloar for years), overkicks significantly the majority of the time. He's in some respects the polar opposite of Spargo - he's got speed, agility, bounce and power, but far less skill and guile. Charlie lacks in explosiveness and speed and tricks, but his kicking and weighting of the ball IS A1. (The combination of the two is basically Kozzie). Chandler is another who has a higher natural skill level and is a touch cleaner particularly on the deck, but doesn't quite have Toby's explosiveness. Absolutely not writing him off - he has improved significantly with the benefit of a couple of pre-seasons and his strong attributes are indeed high level. Natural skill/feel for kicking is hard to mask though and may put a ceiling on his potential. More than happy for him to prove me wrong - he wouldn't be the first player to improve his skill level (Jobe Watson, Nathan Jones, Tom McDonald all good examples) Seems many aren't capable of nuance - he's got tricks, and deficiencies. If he didn't he'd already be in the side....

Suggest you watch more closely. Has some attributes but disposal is not one of them - has been demonstrated at both levels many times

It's three things: -The way he looks - not just a ranga but a rough sort with a shocking hair cut -General likeability impacted by a range of diving type incidents (in the west and then against Carlton at the G) and his lack of interest in any sort of public speaking that tows the line; and -his relatively messy style of play at times The first two being the most important in footys popularity stakes. If he looked like Heeney or Cripps they'd be all over him like a rash. Majority of fans and media still sleeping on him as a result - been an absolutely phenomenal player from day 1, has fronted up every week since and has a very rare combination of attributes not many in the league possess. There's no one I'd switch him out of our team for, with the exception of Bont and Dusty and if we're projecting forward, perhaps Bailey Smith. The comparison has always been with Cripps but Clarry wins ball with speed, nous and balance not pure muscle & size. Cripps is more effective forward as he has the frame of Wayne Carey; they're very different players. I know who I prefer.

Fritsch says hello

I would also add for those who were disappointed at the progression of sparrow, Jordon, Chandler, Baker etc. - they may not be good enough after all but don't forget for everyone other than the best 22 last year, it was a total write off. No VFL, barely any intraclub/practise games etc. They effectively had to waste a year of their career. So 3rd year players should really be thought of as 2nd and so on. Any wonder Rivers, who was exposed to a lot of senior footy last year, already looks more at the level (notwithstanding he may simply be a better footballer than the others)

Some concerning signs I agree but just a note on Gawn and why he "can't tap it down the throat of the mids" A ruck is no good on his own - requires a midfield group that know how to structure a stoppage, block for each other and create space around where the hitout is directed. Watching closely yesterday it was obvious that the 2nd string midfield A) haven't played a lot together absent clarry, viney B) were taught a lesson on stoppage craft. Libba (who destroys us even when we have the A team in) gave Sparrow an absolute spanking in this - pushed him deep underneath every centre bounce before finding the ball, riding two tackles and dishing off to one of the other mids that held their structure. Sparrow, Jordon, Anb/avb/harmes swarmed around the ball and carrier meaning if they won it, they had nowhere to go, and if they didn't win it, it became vitally important they stuck the tackle, which they didn't because they aren't senior bodies. It's a VFL way of playing footy in the midfield - see ball chase ball and the strongest wins - rather than what's required of AFL mids to block, create space, cycle structure around a stoppage, break a tackle to draw a man etc The names highlighted demonstrated almost no aspect of this in their midfield craft other than Harmes, who displayed a little but was inevitably gang tackled as he had no assistance. Gawn can 'tap it down their throats' all day long but without proper midfield setup, it counts for nothing. People rave about Gawn at centre bounces - driven by the ridiculous value that hitouts are given for fantasy scoring, which have for some reason elevated certain ruckman to being ranked alongside the games most influential mids, forwards and backs. It's pure nonsense. For me the value of Gawn is purely in his marking and structures he provides us everywhere else around the ground. Agree with the earlier post who said give me a Bont or Pendles over a dominant ruck anyday. To some extent I hate that we wanted a top 10 afl player on our list for so long, and when it came it was a bloody ruck. It's an argument many have had - I maintain that an elite ruck is nowhere near a requirement for a flag compared to an elite midfield, creative small forwards and dominant key forwards. I'd switch Max out for Sonny Walters or Liam Ryan anyday. The best teams in the league - Port, Geelong, Brisbane, St Kilda - have a mix of good, serviceable rucks and battlers who fill a 'tall' need (e.g Ladhams). But they're stacked everywhere else on the ground. This is not a potshot at Max but a point to posters who seem to think that he can, via hitouts, somehow make us win clearances regardless of the cattle at his feet. Footy is that simple at country level but it's far more complex at AFL level.

To me Tom looked the same last year physically, but had a crap year when he was regularly taking the best defender in a team that could barely move the ball. This year is different. Absolutely nothing to this other than gut feel and personal experience, but to me Tom has the look of a guy that's been thrown out of kilter a little by having a kid. The 'heavy' look of his middle/lower body, the general sluggishness, the lack of vibrancy....you could complain about many aspects of Tom's game over the years but you could never question his mental or physical preparation. His one wood. Interrupt that a little ...whether due to lack of sleep, shifting priorities or a dose of age/reality in a year of tremendous challenge for him and his new family...I wouldn't be surprised if it is a factor. Ditto Melksham to some degree. For all the blokes that claim it transforms their mindset (see Harley), I know personally and from friends that the new dad flat spot is a thing - not in a total inescapable postnatal depression kind of way - but in a 'life has changed and my routine is broken' kind of way. If so (and who knows really), I wouldn't be surprised if Tom return to some form in a year or two. I would hope that's with us, but let's be honest, for what we are paying and what he delivered he has to carry the can for a decent share of our forward-half challenges since 2018.

Nice to see a balanced response. I agree. I think there is an expectation that the pace of games will go up with shortened quarters, placing less emphasis on the rucks and bigs. There was some evidence of this last night. Nonetheless, we rarely if ever went into games previously with 3 tall forwards, so I'm not sure why people are surprised. All they've done is taken Brown or Weideman. Fritsch and Melksham are both very capable in the air particularly in 1v1s. We are taking in many more small forwards than usual. I don't mind it, interested to see how it looks. If anything the backline looks short on depth to me... an injury down there and we don't have many to swing through. Lockhart on bench is just about it unless they plan on taking away our newfound strength with Tomlinson back there...

No coincidence that Lever plays like that when he is the 3rd tall. First time with May and Omac together in the side....

I believe the Flu has a death rate of something like 0.2% overall. This is sitting at around 2-3% as an average across age ranges. By no means a very 'deadly' illness, but yes, it is much more deadly and serious than the Flu, depending on which strain you get (there is a mild and a severe, most of the 'spread' cases outside of China are the mild version). The panicking is only ridiculous if you don't understand multiplicity. Yes, based on the infected/death rates we are seeing TODAY, panicking would appear a disproportionate reaction. However, if it takes off and follows an exponential path as any uncontained virus does, we reach significant numbers very quickly. It's that scenario a smart planner prepares for. An estimate of 50m infected globally is not unreasonable if that is to occur. The worry with Australia now is that it could very well be circulating, sitting dormant in many of us now in the general population, before the incubation period passes and all of a sudden we get a huge spike in diagnosed infections. That's what happened in Italy. In the time it was sitting and incubating, we've inadvertently passed it to others - and so on and so on. It's very reasonable to expect a mass quarantine of some form at some stage, if nothing else than to buy those in charge some extra time to respond. I expect the F1 will probably be cancelled (truthfully, it should be anyway but clearly they will do everything they can to keep it going) and some AFL games may be behind closed doors or cancelled entirely. Other public events may suffer a similar fate. Jaded it is very unfortunate that you have had family who cannot travel for your wedding but it is for good reason. I would be talking to your venue and other suppliers about what your options are in the event of cancellation and/or rescheduling. I'm one of the many who has lost money and had stuffed travel plans because of this - it sucks but I don't think the reactions we're seeing are unreasonable. The only thing I think is weird is the quantum of toilet paper being bought - I suspect 2 packets probably lasts most households through 2 weeks unless you have either a very large family or very sensitive guts. But instead, people are buying 4, 5, 10 packets like we are going to be in lockdown for 6 months. If that happens, we will have far bigger problems than toilet paper. Nonetheless, you don't respond and react to something like this based on how it looks today. You respond it based on how bad it could get. When it comes to public health, any other approach is negligent.

Agree 100%. Omac is very reliable with ball in hand and does not make 'semi regular uncontested skill errors'. He is a more effective kick than he is handball, but overall, he is not one to worry about when he has the ball. It's the one part of his game that doesn't really need much work. You're also correct in that his weaknesses are that he is reactive and can ball watch; and he is also quite slow with a poor turning circle, so he often misses the chance to impact either the footy or an opposing forward with speed. He is the polar opposite of Frost. Omac = Smart, Safe but slow and reactive Frost = Dumb, Risky with speed and high twitch So many fans watch Footy with blinkers on. They see Omac lose a 1v1 contest with a loose ball against a more nimble opponent, which means conceding a goal because of where he plays at full back, and therefore everything Omac does is no good. All of a sudden he can't kick, can't spoil or tie his own bootlaces. Another poster above suggested Bedford brings everything ANB brings re. endurance, but with better skills. ANB doesn't have amazing skills, but have you watched Bedford at all? Earlier in the game against North he missed 2 regulation set shots from exactly the same position, 25 out albeit with a breeze. Later on, he gathered the ball in midfield and tried a 5m kick that landed in the arms of the opposition. For a small player, he is not highly skilled and has an irregular ball drop. This is not a criticism as I think he has potential, but to suggest he's more skilled than ANB on the showing of one practise game with less than full-AFL intensity and pressure is just absurd. The poster who said ANB would have sprayed Bedford's running goal out on the full - ANB has kicked that exact goal for us, playing GC in Brisbane in 2018, coming off the back of the square. He's probably done it other times as well, in full AFL games. He's also topped the team in pressure acts, score assists and kicked over 20 goals as a roaming HFF in 2018, with regular possession counts over 20. On historical and exposed form he's so far ahead of Bedford it's not even funny. I am not some ANB fanatic and I think we can do better in his position as I question his decision making under pressure and think he lacks explosiveness, but he is continually undervalued. I understand when supporters of other teams make these observations, but you're right binman I just don't know how anyone can watch the Dees semi-regularly (or regularly enough to watch a practise game live stream!) as a supporter and fail to actually comprehend what is going on.

This is likely most realistic. It sounds pessimistic but is also suggesting we finish 8th, which is probably where we sit. I also think Tomlinson will end up in defence and agree with those most likely to be injured

That was my report and I would be very surprised if it was what caused it. As I recall Neita got up straight away and continued playing...tackles aren't known to cause ACLs generally