Lil_red_fire_engine

Thoughts on Essendon forwardline?

Bombers play small forward so would not be surprised to see Hibberd played ahead of Smith. I suggest Lockhart just needs a bit more work into him still. I would personally play Weid particularly if it’s wet over Jackson but understand reinforcing his first game and making Weid work for a spot. They may not even take in LJ if it is as wet as expected. Of those nameD on I/C from I think it will be Pickett, Jones, Hibberd, Jackson (if we shift for the wet AVB over Jackson),

I tend to agree that Goody seems to have a preferred 22 and he will do his best to get them in and settle the side. I feel that LJ/Weid is not set (has been mentioned that it was line ball decision) and that Lockhart, AVB and Kozzie are in his preferred but missed due to not ready or allowed. I think we may see more changes this week and then it well settled unless things go awry.

Harmes led our intercepts with 8. Needs to clean up his disposal but doubt he’ll be moving out of the defence.

An excellent debut. Showed good run and a well weighted kick but was just as impressed with some of his defensive aspects. Is it too much to have a youngster take the kick ins?

Upon reflection adjusting the above. Weid for Melksham Picket for ANB

It’s interesting post game where people focus attention. It always seems to be moments that catch us and become the issue and not the overall trend. My immediate reaction was how much 3 up killed us in defence. Yet on reflection a lot of people thought we were too short in defence yet their talls kicked 2 goals and they kicked 7 goals from 48 entries. Granted they fluffed a few we generally defended well based on numbers. Upon reflection after a masterclass first quarter we were blunted at the stoppage, lacked chase through the middle (which we had in spades in the first) and were void of any connection through half forward. This was both the mid and defensive blind kicks to their zone as well as the in ability of our half forward line to have any impact (Melksham, TMac, Jones). The backline will be the same next week I expect so look forward to the reverse howls about Omac. I do suspect the forward line will be tinkered with even if that is just to adjust to the MCG and to bring in Kossie.

Also did Jones play at all in the last. Was not sighted for mine and just checked had no stats?

6. Petracca 5. Gawn 4. Oliver 3. Rivers 2. Hunt 1. Tomlinson

Weideman for Jackson Pickett for Melksham

Great first quarter then thought it would just happen and couldn’t control momentum once they got their tails up. Not helped by our love of 3 defenders up in a contest and our inability to hold a forward set up when under pressure. We still dont put enough chase on as soon as the ball gets more than 3 metres away from a contest (Oliver and Brayshaw the worst offenders(. TMac looks too heavy. Melksham looks disinterested or done. Well done to Rivers on a very promising debut, Trac for continuing to show what he can be and also Hunt for making the most of his opportunity. Take the 4 points and accept we are not as great as we looked in the first but better than we looked in the last.

Before the Kozzie suspension we had the best balance of a modern structure I could recall for us. My only concern was Jackson as second tall forward and risk that he will too easily get moved under the high ball. If rumours are true that he will play in defence then I would be gobsmacked as to why you would do this to a kid when he has not trained defence at all preseason to my knowledge. I am going to attempt to ignore results this season and just want to see aggressive running and ball use offensively and defensively. Time for those that have quoted how much last year hurt and how this has driven them over preseason x 2 to show it.

It was a clinical game with no highlights. Normally with a close one you at least get caught up in the energy generated by the crowd but that even lacked due to the absence.

Until you put someone accountable on him.

For a player that had 20 of 22 possessions uncontested in round 1 to go at 61% efficiency is the key stat.

Agree Rivers not known at level however this is why he has been brought in. Hibberd’ s execution (or lack there of) has been for all to see over the last 12 months,

Not concerned at Marvel. May be iffy at the G. It will come down to how well can Jackson hold himself in a contest to bring the ball to ground.

Jones inside 50 kick is under rated in my opinion.

My take is we are better in both speed and net skill. My view is only OMac is the only clear better skill than other match ups. Bennell v Bedford (Bennell Better Skill) Rivers v Hibberd (Rivers Better Skill) Jackson v Brown (Slight lean to Brown based on known) Salem v Lockhart (Slight lean to Salem) Omac v Smith (OMac better skill) Jones V Spargo (Jones better) Hunt v ANB (Draw)

If he has done the work then he plays. There is no point holding him back just in case and he is not the type you need to wait to build form in some pre game hit n giggle. I have always thought whatever you get out of him this year is a bonus and getting him to a Dees debut is a major milestone in itself. I think we all need accept that in a normal year let alone the shortened season ahead there is a high chance there Will still be some hurdles along the way and just enjoy the ride.

Late 80’s to early 2000’s definitely saw the best spectacle. Whilst the kicking looked messier it Is easy to say that when such a low % of kicks these days are actual attacking moves to a target rather than sideways to a static position or to a pack. The reduced coaches that are proposed post COVid I actually worry will lead to a period trying to maintain the current controlled strategic bent but the game becoming more pack based as teams are less able to embed it. Whilst I am sick of the rule tampering the only way I can see getting back to anything like this style is a move to 16 a side and significantly reduced rotations. All it would take then is a coach to lead the pack with an aggressive scoring game style to see if others would follow.

It is difficult to do this without clear definition of elite you are working to. Champion data do it on statistical impact against players of similar position, elite puts you in the top 10%. In this, Gawn is the only one based on 2019. End of 2018 they had Gawn, Oliver, TMac and Lever based on carry over impact from Crows. In my opinion, elite is a point in time thing and I would not argue any of those based on those seasons output or Lever pre trade. Longevity to me is where the difference shows between the good and great players (a separate argument). As far as elite, The most likely for me therefore are those who have shown they can reach that level consistently Week to week (Gawn, Oliver, Lever, T-Mac) and then the potentials are those that have shown the capability to play games at that level who may get greater consistency. In my view this shows as in order of likelihood Viney, May, Petracca, Langdon and possibly Fritsch. You could argue Brayshaw based on 2018 but I am not convinced on his potential for consistency or impact (worth noting Champion data did include him in theirs that year either).

I think the suggestion is if this happens then it will be in two stages with 40 in 2021 shifting to 35 in 2022. I assume this is to smooth those coming out of contract. If they are to do this which I do not disagree with to reduce costs they should also do the following to support it. Lift the draft age to 19 to reduce speculative picks as well as ensure players once on list have an extra year of physical and mental maturity and readiness to play. Reduce to 16 on field as per the AFLW. It will both reduce cost as well as improve the speed of the game. Align each club with a secondary club that they can develop talent with and if injuries hit you can promote from. If we go to 35 you will really see a premium placed on utility types that can play multiple roles well. Ignoring existing contracts and assuming 2 new draftees and no trades I would delist/retire the following. Jones, Spargo, Hibberd, KK, Hannan, AVB, Hunt, Brown,Wagner, Wagner, Bradtke NB: I am assuming Nietzschke and Bennell are available for full preseasons.

This here. People should not get caught up on best player vs value and impact on result. For me its TMac and May by the length of the straight. Without Gawn we would find a way to win. Those two completely change our ability to attack and defend when not at their best or absent. They also could if necessary play at either end.

My opinion is Jackson will play. NikNat will likely play 60% game time. Gawn plays 85% minimum. The likelihood that Jackson has much time on Naitanui is low. And even if he does I’ll take LJ’s jump (vs Weid) over the lack of strength at the stoppage.