Lil_red_fire_engine

I love this categorisation. I dont think Hunter is a lock. Melksham is contending. Howes I think is more could elevate than contending. .

I am assuming a Hibberd misspell.

Clearly something went wrong after half time in the second half of the year. My query though is these fade outs did not exist in the first half of the season. So what went wrong mid season was it the loading, the accumulation of injury not allowing us to finish out games or a combo of mental fragility and teams knowing you could put us to the sword after the half? I would suggest its a bit of each. Some of that is on Griffiths but not all necessarily. Burgess was clearly a massive loss as he was the best in the business but Griffiths did work under him and now has a season on his own to tune his approach.

I am saying that if we are half way through the year at 6-6 the pressure will be on. Ignore where we finished last year and consider we won 6 of our last 14 games. For arguments sake though how long will you accept this list having a 50:50 win loss ratio before pressure on the coach should be considered? To be clear I rate Goodwin and therefore doubt we will be in this position.

The pressure will be on Goodwin in the first 6-8 weeks to have us looking like the late 2021/early 2022 model with some tweaks. If we look like the mid to late 2022 model the pressure will rise pretty quickly. Our list is too good for the 6 win 8 loss way we finished the season and I suggest there will be little patience to waste the premiership window we have.

We need to unpick how we went from 2021 second half specialists to 2022 second half faders. This aside, partner a fit TMac with a maturing JVR and get Lever back fit and in form. Sort those three and we are set for another shot at success and that is before we consider the upgrades with Grundy and Hunter and the likely breakout improvements that may come from our 2nd-4th years (outside JVR). This assumes that all that went right this year remains steady, which of course is unlikely to occur. I dont believe any teams best touches ours its a matter of whether we can get the stars to align once again.

I suggest if his form is good at minimum he will make a quality 23rd man being his height and speed gives him great flexibility if required for injury or to come on fresh to inject some energy and pace.

B: Lever, May, Rivers HB: Salem, Petty, Bowey C: Hunter, Petracca, Langdon HF: Neal-Bullen, McDonald, Pickett F: Chandler, Gawn, Fritsch FOLL: Grundy, Viney, Oliver IC: JVR, Brayshaw, Sparrow, Jordon Sub: Howes

And Brad Johnson or Mick Ablett claim all are great value where taken and every second club got a steal.

Some would look and say its 13 this year and two likely later first rounders next year. However with your own future first its a lot of 2023 bargaining power to either use to move up next year, use in trade or just have 3 shots at the top 18 in an alleged super draft,

If we rate him that high you would think its something like 4 and 22 for 13 and like 2 x 12-18 picks next year. Lets assume we win the flag in 2023 therefore 2022 18 and 2023 22 are much the muchness and probably moreso attractive for teams being next years draft highly rated. So its 13 and likely a 2023 pick 12-17 for this years 4. The risk that MFC or Freo bomb next year is low so I continue to back JT and Lamb being aggressive when they know who they rate and want.

None of Jefferson, Allan or George are invited to the draft night at Marvel according to Fox Sports website (who would know). 13 players invited Ashcroft, Cadman, Sheezel, Wardlaw, Tstatas Phillipou, Humphrey, MacKenzie, Ginbey, Clark, Busslinger. Hollands, Fletcher. That’s say to me none of them are top 10 for the obligatory top 10 photo.

I do get the sense like others that the only thing they all have right is we have looked to climb the order. Outside that I reckon its generally guess work on need or who they have heard we have interviewed (which would be many). JT certainly has a track record of not going with convention and not being afraid to back in what he sees vs the general school of thought. I am ready for anything including even if top sliders occur us going early with someone generally touted to go in the Sydney, GWS, Collingwood late teen/early 20 zone like George, Ryan or Barnett.

With so many what ifs still to play out I really hope we just have our list ordered based on player with the highest ceiling and required work ethic and confidence to maximise. If someone slips to a position twice as late as we rated ie: 3rd there at 6, 4 at 8, 5 at 10 etc try to slide up rather than hope they slide through. Then use a similar scenario at from 20 onwards for pick 2. It’s clear not every club will consider but I assume we know the ones worth picking up the phone to at the right time. Use the second pick go for list need to take a tall with forward potential or a runner if we did not take that type with our first.

With so many what ifs still to play out I really hope we just have our list ordered based on player with the highest ceiling and required work ethic and confidence to maximise. If someone slips to a position twice as late as we rated ie: 3rd there at 6, 4 at 8, 5 at 10 etc try to slide up rather than hope they slide through. Then use a similar scenario at from 20 onwards for pick 2. It’s clear not every club will consider but I assume we know the ones worth picking up the phone to at the right time. Use the second pick go for list need to take a tall with forward potential or a runner if we did not take that type with our first.

Summarises very well all that seems to be said and heard about what we might do. Only thing missing is players we may target around the 37 range if our pick stays around that mark.

If someone told me this was a picture of Byron not Koz I would not question it.

If that’s the availability at our pick I want us to take the upside gamble on Allan or George in that order. I think we are more chance to not go key with our first pick and try and bring forward our second to land Barnett and develop him as a forward/ruck initially or Jefferson if he falls through the first round. At pick 37 there should still be some speculative talls to consider if we rate the potential of one otherwise leave it to address in 2023.

Opinion not based on rumour I reckon we will target in order of preference Phillipou, Allen, George in that order with pick 13. I can see us going a project tall or running half back at 37 and trying to slide forward into the 20’s to get someone we rate highly if there.

Takes most of his marks clean and on the reach but not many if under any form of body pressure. Does not mean he cant but nothing that I see there would give me confidence in his body on body work.

Unlike the season just gone I think we will see a shift in our best 23. Unsurprisingly I expect Bowey will be a mainstay all year and have the biggest increased impact. I expect JVR, Chandler and Turner will be in the team more often than not (may tire as the season goes on). I think Howes is the most likely uncapped with another preseason and game continuity to develop strongly that leads to some games at a point. When you consider Grundy and Hunter additions and hopefully a fit TMac.as givens the competition for spots should be super strong.

Completely agree, we need a quality ball carrier that can hit a kick, kick a goal and a mid size defender who can lock on the small and centre forward types (the Hibbo replacement). I would look to solve longer term key position forward needs next year unless someone we rate super high falls in our lap at 37. Jefferson would need 2-3 preseasons to have any impact with his frame we are in the now and have other needs. The other option is we target a quality key defender with a view to give further flexibility to free Petty.

This is correct @Nasher

Weddle at 13 for me a touch early on the phantoms but I think would fit to the Hibberd role longer term to play on mid size forwards . Otherwise a ball carrying mid/flanker like Hollands I hope we take a swing at a speculative tall mid 30s with potential to develop at either end.

Can play, can gut run and can hit a kick inside 50 he immediately fills a required starting 18 position on the wing. The low pick, lower coin is the balance of the risk we are taking on his prior alleged off field challenges.