FROZEN IN TIME by the Oracle

Imagine if it were possible to freeze everything and to suspend yourself in a single moment in time?

If I could do that I would choose to go back a little more than a year and a half to Round 21, 2006 when the Demons last travelled to the Cattery to take part in an AFL game played for premiership points. If I could narrow the time down a little more, I would select the very moment well beyond the halfway mark of the second quarter when Melbourne was coasting toward victory with a more than handy 38 point lead and with every chance of securing a top four placing on the eve of the finals series given that the last game was to be played against an injury ravaged Adelaide in the final home and away round.

In this frozen moment of time, Melbourne should have been further in front against Geelong but for one or two appalling decisions from the umpires but I'll let that rest for now. The Demons had dominated the game to that point and they held sway by such a huge margin because they were playing an aggressive free-wheeling brand of football while the Cats were hesitant and lacked accountability.

The home team was virtually down and out sitting in the middle of the road as far a ladder placement was concerned and destined to finish behind Richmond (which in turn, would acquire another wooden spoon by the end of 2007). There was little incentive for the Cats to get themselves off the floor while the Demons had every reason to push hard for a good victory to consolidate third position on the ladder in a battle where every goal was worth valuable percentage in a tight battle for positions at the top of the AFL table.

Now let's unfreeze and move on through the rest of the game played on that fateful day just twenty months ago. History tells us that it was Geelong that regrouped, added a mix of desperation, discipline and attack and pushed itself to the limit in order to kick nine of the last eleven goals of the match to peg the margin back and to momentarily take the lead. In the end, the Demons managed to contain the damage by fighting back with a late point in the dramatic final three or four minutes of the game.

The second half of the game was a precursor to where the teams would be over the next twelve months and beyond. Geelong added disciple, fitness and confidence to its armoury and, at a point six weeks into the following season, was on its way to a premiership. Melbourne, on the other hand, fell apart. The decline was exacerbated by a serious injury list but the cracks were everywhere. Coach Neale Daniher fell by the wayside. His caretaker coach Mark Reilly, has gone too. Dean Bailey is left to pick up the pieces with a list that has already seen a dozen changes in personnel after one summer and which is being asked to play a different style of game to that which many players have been accustomed for all their football lives. They are struggling and the Cats are purring.

They meet each other on Sunday in a game where the bookies are saying that if the Dees get up to win, the bookies will pay out up to a $34.00 dividend. Thirty-four bucks in a two horse race. Think about that. If the match were an even bet they would be offering around $1.85 so that suggests what the bookies think of Melbourne’s chances. The rest of the world thinks the same thing.

THE GAME Geelong v Melbourne at Skilled Stadium - Sunday 6 April 2008 at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Geelong 117 wins Melbourne 83 wins 2 draws

At Skilled Stadium Geelong 31 wins Melbourne 17 wins 1 draw

Since 2000 Geelong 7 wins 1 draw Melbourne 6 wins

The Coaches Thompson 0 Bailey 0

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 (1.00pm)

RADIO ABC 774 SEN KRock MMM

THE BETTING Geelong to win $1.01 Melbourne to win $34.00

LAST TIME THEY MET: Geelong 15.19.109 defeated Melbourne 8.9.57 at the MCG in Round 3 2007

The Demons had opened the season poorly with losses to both St. Kilda and Hawthorn and their injury list was growing by the day. They were blown away by the Cats who dominated in virtually every position on the ground.

Brad Green, who was moved forward to cover the loss through injury of Neitz and Robertson and kicked four goals, was one of the few Demons who could hold his head high after the game. As a youngster, Green was one of the club's most effective forwards. Perhaps this is where his future lies?

THE TEAMS:

GEELONG

B Tom Harley Matthew Scarlett Josh Hunt

HB Darren Milburn Harry Taylor Corey Enright

C Cameron Ling Joel Selwood Jimmy Bartel

HF Steve Johnson, Cameron Mooney, Paul Chapman

F Ryan Gamble Tom Hawkins Mathew Stokes

Foll Mark Blake Gary Ablett Joel Corey

Interchange James Kelly Max Rooke Trent West David Wojcinski

Emergencies Shannon Byrnes David Johnson Brent Prismall

In Max Rooke

Out Shannon Byrnes

MELBOURNE

B Paul Wheatley Nathan Carroll Jared Rivers

HB Clint Bartram, Daniel Bell Lynden Dunn

C Brad Green, Brock McLean Colin Sylvia

HF Cameron Bruce Brad Miller, Paul Johnson

F Aaron Davey David Neitz Russell Robertson

Foll Jeff White James McDonald Nathan Jones

Interchange Colin Garland Chris Johnson Cale Morton Austin Wonaeamirri

Emergencies Simon Buckley James Frawley Brent Moloney

In James Frawley Chris Johnson Brent Moloney Jared Rivers Austin Wonaeamirri

Out Jace Bode Isaac Weetra

New Austin Wonaeamirri (St Mary's NT)

ODD SPOT

Just in case you think Skilled Stadium holds any fears in the hearts of the Demons, don't forget that Melbourne hasn't lost a game at Sleepy Hollow since Round 8 2004 when the Cats won 15.11.101 to 12.15.87 [and even on that occasion the Demons had more scoring shots].

UNFURLING SOME SPIRIT AND PASSION

The best thing to happen to the Demons for a long time is that they have been invited to attend the premiership flag unveiling at the Cats' first real home game of the year. Melbourne should regard that as an honour and a privilege because it will give all and sundry - the Board, officials, coaches, players and even a handful of supporters - the opportunity to see at close quarters, exactly what a truly successful football is all about. That feeling should resonate with them before, during and after the unfurling of the flag and, with a little bit of luck, some of the lessons gained from the experience will help the club immeasurably going forward.

It matters little what the result of the game might be - as long as they play with some spirit and passion and learn from the experience because this year does not look like a year for winning games - at least not this early in the season or against this opposition.

It might sound as if I'm writing the Demons off here but that's not really the case. I really don't expect this week to be a total loss; rather a stepping stone to the following weeks with games against North Melbourne and Carlton when the many players whose pre seasons were interrupted will start finding their legs and the team gets some more experience, confidence and accountability into its system. In the words of coach Bailey, this should make them more

competitive[unquote] but while, things will definitely improve, it will take time.

This week's selections all point to some optimism even for the short term. We shouldn't expect too much from Jared Rivers in his first game back for the club after breaking down in mid season with a groin injury. He was however, easily the club's biggest loss in an injury ravaged 2007. Although the record shows he played three games, he wasn't right in any one of them and his loss was devastating to the Demon backline. He will not provide miracles first up but his name is as important an inclusion in the team's line up as any other in the past five years and as long as he's around, the team will be more

competitive[unquote] and you can therefore forget about those dire predictions of another century plus defeat. It simply won't happen.

The inclusion of the club's new pocket dynamo from the Tiwi Bombers in the Northern Territory, Austin Wonaeamirri, is an indication that the club is going to introduce more run into its makeup in order for the team to be more

competitive[unquote] and surely that must be seen as a positive.

I also expect a big improvement from the club's leadership group. Their heads are on the chopping block and, if they can't ship up over the next few weeks and become more more

competitive[unquote] then some of them will be saying "adios amigos" or "zai jian"* very, very soon.

HERE'S THE TIP

There are four things that you should never do if you want to be a successful tipster.

• Never ignore form …

• Never try to predict the exact time when an ailing club will suddenly become more

  competitive[unquote] ....

  Never go against the odds offered by bookmakers and

  Never waste your time compiling lists of rules.

  That said, this game is definitely not what you would call a "tipster's nightmare" unless you're a perfectionist and want to have a crack at guessing the winning margin.

  Form and the bookies suggest that margin is going to be monstrous this week and, as Whispering Jack pointed out in his review of Melbourne's loss last week, the pattern for the first part of the season has been set. The only way I can foresee a break in that pattern would be if the Cats forgot about the overrnight change from daylight savings time and gave Melbourne a hour's start. Otherwise, I expect the Demons to try hard to be more

  competitive[unquote] this time around particularly with a better all round line up this week. They won't run out of juice as badly as they did in the first two games but I can't see them coming close to Geelong away from home at this stage of the team's development.

  Geelong to win a close one (for the Dees) by 46 points.

  * I've added what I think is Chinese for goodbye in deference to the club's close connection with the People's Republic of China. I kept the original words "adios amigo" just in case the game turns ugly and anyone feels like sneaking south of the border to avoid embarrasment.

I shallnt bother really adding too many words to what essentially put it all down for all to read other thanto think that possibly the day will indeed galvanise the team like no other game can. The whole experience ought to lay down the framework and essentials for them to see and appreciate even if they cant immediately replicate.

There are days that history often uses to point at to say ...that was the day it all started, that was the moment of rebirth. I expect that in times to come April 6 2008 was such a day and occasion for the MFC.

I dont expect miracles. I dont expect victory nor a total shellacking. Melbourne might well do themselves a favour and wander down to Blockbuster and take out Gallipoli...and draw upon it. All is not futile..if you learn.

Some lessons are taught harshly. Often men are borne of such battles where only boys entered. I expect this might be the case come Sunday.

I shallnt bother really adding too many words to what essentially put it all down for all to read other thanto think that possibly the day will indeed galvanise the team like no other game can. The whole experience ought to lay down the framework and essentials for them to see and appreciate even if they cant immediately replicate.

There are days that history often uses to point at to say ...that was the day it all started, that was the moment of rebirth. I expect that in times to come April 6 2008 was such a day and occasion for the MFC.

I dont expect miracles. I dont expect victory nor a total shellacking. Melbourne might well do themselves a favour and wander down to Blockbuster and take out Gallipoli...and draw upon it. All is not futile..if you learn.

Some lessons are taught harshly. Often men are borne of such battles where only boys entered. I expect this might be the case come Sunday.

It's a bit of a strect relying on an old movie, isn't it?

There are four things that you should never do if you want to be a successful tipster.

• Never ignore form …

• Never try to predict the exact time when an ailing club will suddenly become more competitive ....

• Never go against the odds offered by bookmakers and

• Never waste your time compiling lists of rules.

But you're actually tipping that they'll be more

competitive UNQUOTE

this week!

FROZEN IN TIME by the Oracle

The home team was virtually down and out sitting in the middle of the road as far a ladder placement was concerned and destined to finish behind Richmond (which in turn, would acquire another wooden spoon by the end of 2007). There was little incentive for the Cats to get themselves off the floor while the Demons had every reason to push hard for a good victory to consolidate third position on the ladder in a battle where every goal was worth valuable percentage in a tight battle for positions at the top of the AFL table.

If Geelong beat us they would still have had an (outside) shot at making the finals, so i don't see how they had nothing to play for, but i understand the thinking.

It's a bit of a strect relying on an old movie, isn't it?

Probably...but I'll take what I can get !! lol

Bails whole theme this week is to be "competitive".. which really in footy just translates as mantaining keeping the fight right up to them. You would be inhuman not to be unaware of the polulations perception of your ability going into that game...you just have to dig deep into somewhere and keep at it, even when you have those nagging doubts.

TWICE as much money has been gambled on Melbourne as Geelong in today's apparently one-sided clash at Skilled Stadium, with punters attracted by the huge odds on offer for the Demons and the big handicap line of 75 points.

The big interest has seen the Demons' odds cut from $12 to $9, while Geelong has gone from $1.02 to $1.04 with TAB Sportsbet.

Darwin Sportsbet, having offered $34 for the Demons earlier in the week, has cut them to $16.

"Most of the money has been backing Melbourne, which is a bit of a surprise," said Anthony Mansfield of TAB Sportsbet, which holds $200,000 worth of bets on the Demons.

Mansfield said that most of the betting for the game had been on the line bet, that Melbourne would lose by less than 75.5 points, a margin Mansfield said was the biggest he could remember. Five times as many people have bet that Melbourne would lose by fewer than the 75.5-point margin offered.

The Demons have lost their last two games by a combined total of 199 points while Geelong is coming off a 99-point thrashing of Essendon.

Geelong youngster Ryan Gamble, who is not allowed to bet, played down suggestions his team would romp in.

"It's just week-by-week, it doesn't matter who we're playing, if they're on the bottom of the ladder or if they've been beaten by 70 or 90 points," Gamble said.

Source: The age.

one supporter has put down a significant amount of money on the demons, and has promised to buy 3000 melbourne membership if we win...

one supporter has put down a significant amount of money on the demons, and has promised to buy 3000 melbourne membership if we win...

hahahaha

technically, it would be smarter just to donate the money straight into the club because then they wouldnt have to pay for the little cards and crappy pens and ties and stuff

hahahaha

technically, it would be smarter just to donate the money straight into the club because then they wouldnt have to pay for the little cards and crappy pens and ties and stuff

I was cleaning out the glovebox yesterday for something to do while I was listening to Radio 1611AM and I found one of those "crappy pens" from 2006. I like the thin profile and they write quite well, even on corrugated cardboard.

Today's trip down the highway will bring about some exciting things....

*We have a chance to kick 5 goals for the 3rd week in a row!

This has been a really exciting part of our game so far in 2008.... And I honestly believe that we could possibly score 10 (If the breeze shifts each qtr)

*Simon Buckley could break the all-time record for clangers, set by our very own TJ

Another exciting part of our games so far, has been the boys ability to run into trouble and deliver a pin-point pass to someone in Row 3

*What colour duct tape the players will have over their mouths today or whether they will stick with the previously used, clear type?

It is obviously some kind of game plan to stop the boys talking back to the umpires, but in all honesty, it should be noted that it also prevents the players from having any sort of communication with each other on the ground also!!

*The 2007 Premiership Flag being proudly displayed to all Cats fans

I am hoping like all hell that our boys take a good hard look at the joy in the Geelong players & loyal members' eyes when the flag is raised! That is what we expect to be feeling at some point in our lives!

I expect more than what has been shown so far this season, as do the rest of our loyal supporters!

And despite my "tongue-in-cheek" cracks in this post, I expect the boys to give a fair account of themselves today!

Final score

Geelong 26.12. 168

Melb 12.12. 84

*Simon Buckley could break the all-time record for clangers, set by our very own TJ

Another exciting part of our games so far, has been the boys ability to run into trouble and deliver a pin-point pass to someone in Row 3

Hate to burst your bubble Jay, but Buckley won't be playing. He played for Sandy yesterday.

Today's trip down the highway will bring about some exciting things....

*We have a chance to kick 5 goals for the 3rd week in a row!

This has been a really exciting part of our game so far in 2008.... And I honestly believe that we could possibly score 10 (If the breeze shifts each qtr)

*Simon Buckley could break the all-time record for clangers, set by our very own TJ

Another exciting part of our games so far, has been the boys ability to run into trouble and deliver a pin-point pass to someone in Row 3

*What colour duct tape the players will have over their mouths today or whether they will stick with the previously used, clear type?

It is obviously some kind of game plan to stop the boys talking back to the umpires, but in all honesty, it should be noted that it also prevents the players from having any sort of communication with each other on the ground also!!

*The 2007 Premiership Flag being proudly displayed to all Cats fans

I am hoping like all hell that our boys take a good hard look at the joy in the Geelong players & loyal members' eyes when the flag is raised! That is what we expect to be feeling at some point in our lives!

I expect more than what has been shown so far this season, as do the rest of our loyal supporters!

And despite my "tongue-in-cheek" cracks in this post, I expect the boys to give a fair account of themselves today!

Final score

Geelong 26.12. 168

Melb 12.12. 84

You got our score pretty right. Glad you underestimated our defence!

glad you underestimated the entire team performance

and you also missed all of the real positives