Footy Sucks

[Tony Tea 2,809]

What hurts me, more than anything, is not that we've missed our window of opportunity, it's WHO we've lost it to.

Sure, we haven't been quite good enough to consider ourselves a solid chance, but for several years now we've been told all we need to do to win a flag is keep presenting as a top four prospect. The more often we were up with the top teams, the more likelihood there was we'd be a chance to snag a flag. Just as long as we continued to make the finals.

Now, this year. First we tinker with our style. Instead of fine-tuning last year's style, we tried the run-and-carry. Sure, it was supposed to augment our original game plan, not supersede it, but either way it's been a flop. It was apparent from the first quarter of Round 1 when St Kilda had nine scoring shots to our seven (and numerous OOFs) that we were in deep doo-doo for 2007. We just weren't tough enough to carry the ball into crowded areas and keep hold of it. That was followed by a shed load of injuries, starting with Brocky, our most important mid-fielder, in the second quarter of Round 1.

So, just as we think we might be well placed to challenge for the top four, just as we think this could be our year, just as we get out hopes up, we're out of the running in a finals that are the most open they've been for years.

Out of the current eight, we are better than Hawthorn, Norf, Port and Footscray at our best. (We should have beaten three of them, anyway.) We'd need to be at our best to challenge the present Geelong, who are burning, but IT IS Geelong, the one team more painful to barrack for than Melbourne; surely, something will go wrong for the Catters. West Coast are struggling and despite their pantsing us in Perth, are vulnerable here. The Sydney Pinks are looming large again, but they are coming from a long way back. Adelaide seem to be timing their run better than last year, but they aren't as imposing as they were at times last year. That leaves Collingwood. Malthouse coaches his teams to win finals. Should the Poys get a break in the finals they will be a major threat. Tony Shaw was right to say they could pinch it.

But are we at our best? Are we F**K! And where are we? Virtually stone motherless last and out of the bloody race.

You know what I won't be doing this September? Watching football. To have any of those sides scum a flag in the year we decide to go backwards will be too painful for words. Collingwood for obvious reasons. Sydney because the AFL granted them a flag in 2005 with the Hall decision (just compare that joke with Davey's last night). Hawthorn, North and Port because they aren't good enough to deserve one. Geelong and Footscray because that will mean we are one team closer to the team with the longest premiership drought. Adelaide because in their 16 year history luck has already granted them TWO flags.

The only less-painful-than-the-rest option is the side that will never stop, stop, stop til they're top, top, top, because I don't know even one Port fan.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,939]

Yeah I agree in that Port Adelaide would be one side which wouldn't bother me too much, if they won the flag.

If the Kangaroos won it, then every other club would be scratching their heads thinking how??????????

[Pello 1]

Yeah footy sucks alright. You need to have a lot of things fall your way to win a premiership and one of them is luck! We're all out of it this year - we are definitely the hard luck story of the year! Hopefully this experience will make us stronger and hungrier in 2008 - our 150th year!

[Demon Disciple 12,274]

This season has got a lot of 1990 about it. There are teams up there in the top 4 that could win it, but at the start we thought couldn't (Hawks and Roos, and somewhat Geelong). Then there are the teams that we expected to more than likely win the cup (Freo, Eagles) and there are teams that did alright last year, that are really pressing for a top 4 and ultimately a serious shot at winning the cup.

There are quite a few teams that could win it this year, they just need to be playing the right type of footy at the right time of year. Very similar to 1990. Although we won't be in the finals, like we were in '90.

[Tony Tea 2,809]

This season has got a lot of 1990 about it.

1990 sucked, too. We won 16 games, only 4 points off top, and still finished fourth and outside the double chance. Then the Poys/Illeagles draw stuffed us further. Then Strawbs O'Dwyer flattened Gary Lyon at training.

As that noted footy pundit, Dr Zachary Smith, was wont to say "Ohh, the pain!"

[Cameron the Bruce 1]

Wow, you've described exactly how I feel

It's just so frustrating to look at the teams at the top of the ladder, this is such an open year. Although Geelong are playing brilliant footy at the moment, you can see them being beaten, they are not a gorilla team. Hawthorn probably don't have the experience to go all the way, Collingwood don't have the outright talent, and the doggies football will fall down most likely under finals pressure. If we had've stuck to our best game plan last year and had've avoided all those injuries, well, you just never know do you?

[deeangel 2]

Yep! It's official 'The Season from Hell"!

[WonnaJurah 5]

got 1997 season?

[Doggo 32]

Hey Cameron the Bruce... nice avatar

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Gee that's a good post Godemons...

Pretty much summed up my thoughts when I looked at the Age today and saw one journo suggest that the ladder will end this year with the top four being filled by teams from Victoria. It just hurts that we're not one of them.

I agree with almost everything you said. With the exception of a couple of things. First, of the top four right now I hope the Cats win it. Any of the others would just be unbearable. Second, I reckon the signs were on the wall as early as the first round of the NAB cup.

I said it at the start of the year... I thought we had less reason for enthusiasm at the start of '07 than we did at the start of '06. Yes, injuries were ALWAYS going to determine our success, I just knew we couldn't count on quite the level of improvement we got last year.

When the NAB cup came round I got a little bit excited at how CJ and Buckley moved, and was pleased with Bate and Jones... but overall, I was VERY concerned that we lost in the way we did. When I saw that nothing was changing week in week out, I knew in my heart that Daniher's stubbornness would consign us to the gallows this year. Post round 1, I thought we HAVE to do what we did last year and win 10 of the next 11. And come round 3, I knew almost for a fact we were goners, since we weren't even close to winning, and all our best players were out for bulk time.

And I have one more item for you to consider Godemons...

Now, I dislike it when posters are needlessly and pointlessly negative, but....

If you're going to bottom out, make it a Gibbs, Gumbleton, Leuenberger, Selwood year.... Or a Hodge, Ball, Judd year.

Early dispatches suggest this is a BAD year to finish last. From what I can glean, Cotchin and Kreuzer are the certainties, then after that it drops off significantly. To get third pick, which it looks like we will, would be almost cruel considering we may not get too much with it in comparison. I love a good silly season, and of course I'll get whipped up with excitement, but inside I'll have in the back of my mind that luck simply isn't on our side.

But that may just be me...

[Jaded No More 68,974]

Early dispatches suggest this is a BAD year to finish last. From what I can glean, Cotchin and Kreuzer are the certainties, then after that it drops off significantly. To get third pick, which it looks like we will, would be almost cruel considering we may not get too much with it in comparison. I love a good silly season, and of course I'll get whipped up with excitement, but inside I'll have in the back of my mind that luck simply isn't on our side.

But that may just be me...

I'm not sure that it's a bad draft, it's just not as deep as previous years.

I'd be thrilled to get Cotchin. He's all class and would complement our current crop of midfielders nicely.

Don't think Kreuzer will make it to pick 3, which doesn't bother me too much as I think he is a bigger risk than someone like Cotchin who is almost certain to make it at AFL level.

[Tony Tea 2,809]

Thanks, Dan.

As it happens, I was concerned with the pre-season form, too. So much so, that I tipped us to finish well down the ladder.

One of my worries was the Nab game against Hawthorn, where we just couldn't keep the game on our terms, but another concern was our lack of any surprise ingredients.

In 2004 Davey managed to get under the guard of a few sides. Then in 2006 Byron was Brownlow Byron early on. Both injections of class/pace, before the other sides woke up, allowed us to kick start our seasons. (Don't ask me what happened in 2005.)

And that other issue of yours could well be avoided if we finish the season as poorly as we've finished others - namely lose our remaining games. If that happens, Carlton will win one more and disqualify themselves from the No.1 pick. Round 22 could be be very interesting indeed.

[Tony Tea 2,809]

I can't think of a last round match since the draft was introduced when BOTH sides stood to lose a high pick buy winning.

Brisbane dudded themselves in 1998 when they beat St Kilda by a 1pt to go to four and a half wins.

[Go the Biff 3,440]

Now, I dislike it when posters are needlessly and pointlessly negative, but....

If you're going to bottom out, make it a Gibbs, Gumbleton, Leuenberger, Selwood year.... Or a Hodge, Ball, Judd year.

Early dispatches suggest this is a BAD year to finish last. From what I can glean, Cotchin and Kreuzer are the certainties, then after that it drops off significantly.

A good point I'm surprised hasn't been made before Dappa (not that I've read anyway). If you read enough on here you'll find cases mounted for all of Ward, Brown, Yze, Ferguson, Holland, Godfrey, Bizzell, Warnock, Neville, Wheatley, Pickett, Miller etc to be given the arse come season's end (contractual status notwithstanding). The problem with that is that numerically, you have to replace what you delete. The deepest analysis on doing that is "draft kids". Your early dispatches & Jaded's suggestion that this is not a deep draft are key points. Some who are on shaky ground on our list may well find their careers extended by a year based on our recruiting staff's assessment of not only this draft, but of the the next couple as well. They may decide that this is not the draft you want to use six or seven picks in and be stuck with youngsters picked on spec tied to the club on mandatory two year contracts.

Someone posted in a thread yesterday (cbf checking back) and used chess as an analogy. In some cases, the appropriate strategy is to hang on to some of your pawns in order to use them to greater effect later in the game.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Spot on GTB...

My model for how to approach this coming draft includes the delisting, trading or retiring of at least 8 players. 4-6 selections in the draft, 1-2 rookie promotions, 1-2 in the pre-season and I'm not including rookies.

The problem here is that later selections will REALLY test CAC's recruiting nous. He likes his speculative picks (Bate, Newton, Bruce, Weetra). Perhaps you could say we have an experienced "prospector." Maybe this tips the scales for luck in later selections in our favour?

In all likelihood however, the odds are against us somewhat, as you said.

Given CAC's track record, I'll probably grudgingly accept that now is not the time to clean house with our list, if he just persists with some of those elder statesmen at the club.

[Cameron the Bruce 1]

Cheers doggo, it looks pretty rubbish blown up, but in the nice little avatar pic it looks pretty decent

From what I've heard there are only a few really good picks this year, Kreuzer, the other tall ruckman, cotchin and the guy that WJ has seen. Who do we want?

[Guest redandbluethruandthru]

maybe we need to offer a very lucrative package to an established mid 20yo star. ie Pav then the more consisent but flawed older players get offered a pay decrease and 1 year deal or face delisting. just an idea to free up cash to lure a gun.

[demonsflag555657 3]

A good point I'm surprised hasn't been made before Dappa (not that I've read anyway). If you read enough on here you'll find cases mounted for all of Ward, Brown, Yze, Ferguson, Holland, Godfrey, Bizzell, Warnock, Neville, Wheatley, Pickett, Miller etc to be given the arse come season's end (contractual status notwithstanding). The problem with that is that numerically, you have to replace what you delete. The deepest analysis on doing that is "draft kids". Your early dispatches & Jaded's suggestion that this is not a deep draft are key points. Some who are on shaky ground on our list may well find their careers extended by a year based on our recruiting staff's assessment of not only this draft, but of the the next couple as well. They may decide that this is not the draft you want to use six or seven picks in and be stuck with youngsters picked on spec tied to the club on mandatory two year contracts.

Someone posted in a thread yesterday (cbf checking back) and used chess as an analogy. In some cases, the appropriate strategy is to hang on to some of your pawns in order to use them to greater effect later in the game.

Totally agree

[re draft molan 1]

A good point I'm surprised hasn't been made before Dappa (not that I've read anyway). If you read enough on here you'll find cases mounted for all of Ward, Brown, Yze, Ferguson, Holland, Godfrey, Bizzell, Warnock, Neville, Wheatley, Pickett, Miller etc to be given the arse come season's end (contractual status notwithstanding). The problem with that is that numerically, you have to replace what you delete. The deepest analysis on doing that is "draft kids". Your early dispatches & Jaded's suggestion that this is not a deep draft are key points. Some who are on shaky ground on our list may well find their careers extended by a year based on our recruiting staff's assessment of not only this draft, but of the the next couple as well. They may decide that this is not the draft you want to use six or seven picks in and be stuck with youngsters picked on spec tied to the club on mandatory two year contracts.

Someone posted in a thread yesterday (cbf checking back) and used chess as an analogy. In some cases, the appropriate strategy is to hang on to some of your pawns in order to use them to greater effect later in the game.

Out of all the players you mentioned, only 3 wiil be delisted/traded or whatever. Ferguson(times up),Pickett(lost respect earlier this season, and hasn't used his second chance), Holland(sorry dutchy). All the others still have something to offer the club in some form, particularly Wheatley(dont know why he is on your list). While being bitterly dissappointed with this season, I dont think a complete cleanout in one season is the answer, or the sensible thing to do.

[Rogue 585]

What hurts me, more than anything, is not that we've missed our window of opportunity, it's WHO we've lost it to.

So, just as we think we might be well placed to challenge for the top four, just as we think this could be our year, just as we get out hopes up, we're out of the running in a finals that are the most open they've been for years.

Your hopes were too high originally.

This year wasn't our 'window of opportunity' - we're going to be better in a few years (yeah, I did say this at the end of '06 so I'm not just a 20/20 expert).

[demonsflag555657 3]

What people have got to remember is when you have your window of opportunity you need a flag and you have to grab it.

Look at port add they grabed one then bottomed out and are now waiting for their next WINDOW.