THE PEOPLE SPEAK by The Demonland Crew

[Demonland 73,139]

DEMONLAND - Good evening, Demon fans and welcome back to the Demonland 2024 Grand Final Podcast ... before we took that last phone call from a Demonlander, we were discussing how the club overcame it’s midseason slump, the season-ending injury to Christian Petracca and the loss for a brief period of skipper Max Gawn due to a  crack to the base of his right fibula, to slowly surge up the ladder turning our detractors into believers and how it ended the year triumphant in the finals with our captain holding aloft the premiership cup on the MCG for the first time in six decades.

Oops... um, I'm not supposed to reveal that part of the script yet so … it’s back into our DMC DeLorean as we return to the present where it's your turn to make your feelings known about how the game will pan out.

The Third Eye - It’s true that Melbourne is faced with a monumental challenge but it’s not about turning around a negative 15½ goal outcome against Fremantle which is where it finished in Alice Springs early last month.

It’s all about winning a game where both sides start with the score at 0.0.0 each, play under different conditions, on a different ground in a different city (albeit the home of the Dockers), with different players and with many of the same players of differing stages of physical freshness and mental attitude.

There’s been an outcry and a lot of tears about the fact that the Demons were forced to soldier on without two AFL top liners in Max Gawn (possibly) and Christian Petracca but when you compare the makeup of the Melbourne team of round 12 with the team of round 18, there are some significant changes for the better even if you can never replace Max and Christian.

These are the changes between the two games -

Out Max Gawn, Lachie Hunter, Christian Petracca, Shane McAdam, Adam Tomlinson

In Jake Lever, Jake Melksham, Andy Moniz-Wakefield, Koltyn Tholstrup, Jacob van Rooyen.

That’s a mixed bag of players coming in which includes two experienced players in Lever and  Melksham. One adds cohesion to the defence, the other adds steel to the attack which was not functioning properly on 2 June 2024 when Melbourne flopped badly to the purple people.

The other three are JvR who is in massive form as a forward and relief ruckman, and the two youngsters playing with great enthusiasm. They replace McAdam who was held scoreless, Hunter who was ineffective before he was subbed off at half time with a calf injury and Adam Tomlinson who worked hard but can compare with Lever’s impact of the entire defensive structure of the team.

There are a number of Melbourne players who have lifted several notches including wingers Ed Langdon and Caleb Windsor. Their current form is uplifting and their attacking mindset is setting a different tone to the team’s performance.

The last time they met, it was said that the Dockers were switched on and primed to the max beat the Demons. They had an extra two days to prepare themselves for the game but  this time it’s different as they are coming off a shattering loss to Hawthorn.

Certainly, Freo will have an advantage in the ruck if Max isn’t ruled fit to play but in every other respect, the goalposts have been removed 180 degrees over the past six or seven weeks.

Even Optus Stadium is Melbourne’s home away from home.

Ollie Fan - I don't know what was going on at Alice Springs but that is NOT the benchmark to start from.

We can win because our backs are better than their forwards, and our forward line is starting to work- thanks to Kozzie, Melksham and hard work by the others.

whatwhat say what - it's going to be a pretty different team so the main thing is to bring the right attitude to the contest, attack via defence and get a bit of scoreboard momentum early.

At the end of the match, Melbourne will either be in a better position in the eight or three games from second.

It’s a funny ol' season and there's a lot to play out still.

MO FINE - I think it should be mentioned that since that terrible day at Alice Springs, the coach has benefited from some “learnings” and he is managing the players so much better. An example is the way Clarry is being managed to get the best out of him in light of his highly interrupted preseason which limited his performance from time to time. On Saturday, he spent time on the bench early in the first quarter and was limited to just one disposal. He got into the thick of things as soon as the second quarter started and added 10 possessions to his belt by half time and finished with 25 disposals. It was telling that Goody went to him soon after the final siren and looked so pleased with Clarry and his contribution on the night.

OhMyDees - In 2022, I was at a wet Optus Stadium watching us dismantle the Dockers.

We did this by keeping a strong zoned defence and forcing them to the wing instead of the corridor. They just couldn’t move the ball quickly in the wet, couldn’t switch it and this played into our strengths.

Our game plan if executed with vigour should stack up well against Fremantle. The conditions will be wet which again suits us given how well we adapted last week.

Pinball Wizard - is ruck domination overrated?

I heard an interesting statistic on one of the football shows on tv last night. The match winning percentage of teams that win the hit outs is 49%. We don’t necessarily have to win the hit outs to win the game.

Goodwin should be spending much of his time this week watching vision of the Dockers to get an insight on how they turned his team into a bumbling rabble on that fateful day in Alice Springs. He will notice that their midfield destroyed us. Players like Serong, Brayshaw, Young, O’Meara, Fyfe and Clark helped them win the clearance count by more than double, 48 to 23. This was despite the fact that thanks to Max, the Dees won the hit outs by 35 to 32. The Fremantle defence was impressive that day and didn’t let the wind get through let alone any of the Melbourne forwards. The lesson from the day was to be switched on, more desperate and get your hands on the pill first. That’s the tale in a nutshell.

That could be easier said than done but it might also be worthwhile for Goody to cast an eye over the tape of Freo’s game on Saturday in Tassie where the young Hawks plugged away and got the W in the end.

Roger Mellie - Goodwin said at the start of the season that in 2023 we started like a train and limped home. The “learnings” from that, were that the team would be primed to finish the season strongly rather than start. The way we are playing at the moment it looks like it's going to plan - e.g. Caleb Windsor looked cooked a few weeks ago and now is playing brilliant footy. The players, with few exceptions, look fit and fresh.

Only one team has won a premiership at that ground too!

DEMONLAND – it sounds like the fitness people might have been doing some “loading” back in June. I wonder if that had something to do with it?

binman - As a generalisation, the form of teams in the weeks leading into their bye, and in the one or two weeks after their bye should be ignored.

As a footy punter it is a treacherous period and I tread warily.

But it does throw up some real value as many punters think of form in terms of week to week performances or blocks of two games.

So Port Adelaide were great value against the Bulldogs because in their previous two games they got absolutely thrashed by the Lions and scraped in against the Saints. This made them terrific value at the line at home against the dogs, who had been in good form. Port thrashed the Dogs, so people jumped off them making them great value at the line against the Blues.

But Melbourne has now passed that phase and form is now more trustworthy. The way to think about this game is not how they played last time against the Dockers but what its best football looks like versus their best football.

The same can be applied to all matches from here on in. The first 6-7 rounds give the best guide, injuries notwithstanding.

I don't bet on Dees games, but if I did I would launched into us at the line against the Bombers because their best football is better than that of the Bombers.

Leave it to Deever -  I wonder how difficult it is for coaching staff to get that into the player's mindset?

With fixtures these days allowing for teams to play one another twice without a significant amount of time since previous encounters, it doesn't help.

That was a humiliating loss for Melbourne but it wasn't isolated.

They were playing some good football and some shocking football. They were all over the place and in the game against the Blues, the Dees’ inconsistent play was evident from quarter to quarter.

Going in this time Melbourne seems a lot more stable. I just hope that the last loss to them hasn't left any deep scar tissue.

Perhaps it will work for the Demons with the Dockers being overconfident.

In any event it's a massive game for the club. A chance to take a big scalp. Freo, for me are above the Blues and second favourite to win a flag .

Win this one and the Demons will definitely be playing finals.

Quite possibly a real chance to finish top four.

No pressure … 😀

buck_nekkid - Back to the future,

We return to Optus Stadium - the site of a terrible loss to West Coast - to face Freemantle - who put us to the sword by nearly 100 points.  Seems like we should be shaking in our boots. We are now also without Gawn and Trac, yet after the victory over the Bombers, we have sky-rocketed into the eight.  So, how are we going to go?

Only a Nostradamus could know!

At our best, we will control the contest and the ground ball,

Our defence will be all strangling and hold them to under 72 points whilst our slick hands and smart plays will open our front 50 for a number of our forwards to cash in.

Provided we play four quarters (which we have not done for a while but we’re building up to it), we have this.

At our worst, we will lose the momentum early and never get it back.  We will mind grass and watch them sail away to the win.

The difference between these teams is really small.  They are about the same place on the ladder as us, they have excellence in the midfield and a few good sorts around the ground, and we could be anything!

With my hopes running high, i say Dees by 22 points

THE GAME

Melbourne v Fremantle at Optus Stadium on Sunday 2 June 2024 at 1.00pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Fremantle 26 wins Melbourne 18 wins
At Optus Stadium Fremantle 0 wins Melbourne 1 win
Last five meetings Fremantle 3 wins Melbourne 2 wins
The Coaches Longmuir 4 wins Goodwin 2 win

LAST TIME THEY MET

Fremantle 22.9.141 defeated Melbourne 7.7.49 at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs, Round 12, 2024

Maxie - an interesting stat or a boomer with too much time on his hands?

The Demons have played Freo and lost in three games at almost the exact time of the season in the past three seasons - Round 11 in 2022 & 2023 at the G and round 12 this year at Tregear Park.

I remember going to those MCG games and noted how cooked we seemed.

Round 12 at the Alice was like watching a team with concrete in their boots but, as has been said above, this is a different time and a different place.

Binman’s loading theory looking sound.

TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B T. McDonald, S. May, J. McVee
HB C. Salem, J. Lever, A. Moniz-Wakefield
C E. Langdon, C. Oliver, T. Sparrow
HF K. Pickett, J van Rooyen, K. Chandler
F A. Neal-Bullen, B. Fritsch, J. Melksham
FOLL H. Petty, J. Viney, T. Rivers
I/C J. Billings, J. Bowey, K. Tholstrup, D. Turner, C. Windsor
EMG T. Fullarton, B. Laurie, A. Tomlinson

IN J. Billings

OUT T. Woewodin (managed)

FREMANTLE

B H. Chapman, A. Pearce, B. Cox
HB C. Wagner, L. Ryan, J. Clarke
C J. Sharp, N. Fyfe, H. Young
HF B. Banfield, S. Switkowski, M. Frederick
F J. Treacy, J. Amiss, L. Jackson
FOLL S. Darcy, C. Serong, A. Brayshaw
I/C J. Aish, J. O'Meara, S. Sturt, B. Walker, M. Walters
SUB W. Brodie, P. Voss, K. Worner

IN S. Darcy, A. Pearce, B. Walker

OUT J. Draper (omitted), M. Johnson (injured), P. Voss (omitted)

Injury List: Round 19

Max Gawn — ankle / test
Lachie Hunter — calf / 1 week
Charlie Spargo — Achilles / season
Christian Petracca — spleen / indefinite

[Whispering_Jack 30,640]

It was Round 11, 2022 at the MCG when Fremantle came back from a 25 point deficit at half time to beat Melbourne by 38 points. 

They met again in Round 20 at Optus Stadium and the Demons won by 46 points making it an 84 point turnaround - more if you take into account that half time MCG deficit.

At the time, loading by the Melbourne fitness team was raised by many to explain the amazing improvement from one game to the next.

So … it … can … be … done 

[Freddy Fuschia 747]

I wonder if we're going to pull a surprise with a miraculous recovery from Max to take on their ruck might?

[Blistering 541]

Well done to all contributors.

I do have a question for @binman and that is, does he think that Melbourne's best football is better than that of Fremantle?

[binman 43,747]

On 17/07/2024 at 15:16, Blistering said:

Well done to all contributors.

I do have a question for @binman and that is, does he think that Melbourne's best football is better than that of Fremantle?

Good question.

Yes, is the short answer.

Using the theory the first third of the season gives us a more accurate read of form than the middle third, this was the ladder after round 8 

(Note: we had a much tougher fixture and schedule than Freo. And it's also worth noting like us they also lost to west coast - but it was round six so mid season loads not a factor)

[Whispering_Jack 30,640]

The teams are in and so are the umpires.

No doubt @Redleg will be pleased that we going to have the company of his favourite umpire # 25 😀

[640MD 3,427]

I thought the favoured one was #22