POSTGAME: Rd 09 vs Carlton

[binman 41,923]

5 hours ago, At the break of Gawn said:

This just simply isn’t true. Cripps and Walsh both had 34 and 35 disposals and kicked 2.1 between them. If Cerra had run out the game he also would have had 30+. To blame the defenders on the 5 centre clearances is also extremely short sighted and black and white thinking. Our defenders rely heavily on the pressure up the ground and Carlton had numerous exits at the front of the stoppage which allowed them easy looks. Do you think the Dogs in 2021 blame all of Melbourne’s centre clearance goals on their defence? No they blame it on their mids who allowed clean exit from the centre square.

Let’s also analyse your “mids are having a good season comment” by looking at our 3 prime mids.

Viney: Averaging 21 disposals a game - very average for a full time mid and clearly down on form. Don’t throw me pressure stats, I’m talking about pure ball in hand stuff.

Oliver - Averaging 25 disposals compared to his usual 29 and only 4 clearances compared to his usual 9.

Petracca- Matching his usual career average but has struggled with a tag. If he didn’t go forward he probably would have finished sub 20 disposals for the match.

As a team we’ve also only won contested possessions 4 times and clearances 5 which used to be our one wood. For a team that supposed to be focused on “contest and defence” our contest work, especially in the middle, has been lacking all year. I can absolutely guarantee you that Goody would not be happy with our midfield to date. I know our forwards were poor on Thursday night, but to give our midfield a pass is just crazy when they’re posting record low numbers. What makes it even more disappointing is that Gawn is having an almighty year but our mids haven’t capitalised at all. None of our mids except for Petracca (mainly on his score involvements) would be in the conversation for AA this year.

With respect ATBOG i think you are using out of date metrics to assess performance - certainly different metrics to those i use, and at the risk of coming across like a know it all, different metrics than what footy clubs use to asses performance in the modern era. 

In 2024 the metrics coaches use to assess individual performance would include a whole bunch of information we as fans do not have access to.

The most important of these is playing their assigned role. Another is adherence to structures, systems and team rules - particularly those relating to the all system defensive system we employ. 

Another is work rate as measured by heir GPS numbers, including their total kms run, top speed, kms run at striding pace, sprint kms, defensive running, offensive running  etc etc. I know for fact that each player gets these numbers for every game AND every training session so they know if they have hit their targets. 

A key one is the KPIs for their line, in this case the mid group. Coaches are interested in what individuals do as part of their specific line and any individual KPIs are directly informed by whatr that group is tryting achive and what the indicators of success.  

Others are pre and post clearance uncontested contested possessions and there are no doubt many more that I'm not aware of

Then there are the numbers that are publicly available, including things like pressure, contested possessions, score involvements, goal assists, one percenters, contested marks, intercepts, spoils uncontested marks etc etc.

Each player would have a group of stats and indicators specific to their role in the team. That's to say not all stats are relevant for each player. 

I doubt coaches use disposal numbers in of themselves at all, or if they do only for specific players because in specific circumstances (eg they have been asked to get more involved). Coaches are interested in impact and disposal numbers are absolutely useless as a measure of impact. 

Take Billings. Posters have been confidently predicting and/or calling for him to be dropped for weeks and it seems to me that is largely based on his low disposal numbers and seemingly low hurt factor. 

But as i argued on the podcast if he is a fixture in the side we can be certain he is meeting his individual KPIs, in particular playing his role and doing what he needs to do from a systems and structure perspective.

Which is why i was so confident he would not be dropped this week (and it wasn't because we didn't have alternatives - Hunter, Laurie, Woey all could have come in for him). 

So given we don't have access to the critical information to say that you can 'absolutely guarantee you that Goody would not be happy with our midfield to date' is, to be frank, patent nonsense. 

A couple of other random comments:

• Viney has been quieter for the last 3-4 weeks but was brilliant in our first 4 games 
• Oliver's numbers are crazy good given his limited preseason and playing with a broken hand for 3 games, sore ribs for at least one (the tiger game) and recovering from surgery in the last game
• Petracca is struggling with a tag? Really? Would have struggled to get 20 possessions if he didn't go forward? You are judging him on a scenario that didn't happen based on your predictive power? C'mon. 
• Our mission are 'posting records low numbers'? 
•  I didn't 'blame the defenders' for giving up 5 goals from the centre 
• In fact i explicitly acknowledged the mids are a factor in the ream giving scores from center clearances, noting the 'mids are only one factor in influencing whether an opponent scores a goal from a centre clearance'
• By the by, do me a favor and try to avoid misrepresenting my comments
• Yes i said the defenders were one of the factor, because Goody made clear in his presser, they were
• Clearances are no longer as important an indicator for most teams, certainly not for us - so whilst they are still important they are not nearly as important as they were say 10 years ago (turnover related stats are way more significant now) 
• Take the Cats - before we played them they were unbeaten but were 17th for stoppage clearances won
• You seem to be under valuing the importance of the pressure stats - the clubs don't 
• On pressure, there is a contradiction in your post above - you note how important it is mids don't allow their opponents out the front. How do you think they do that? Spoiler alert- by applying pressure 

Edited May 11 by binman

[Demonsterative 3,016]

I think the most telling stat was the scores going late into the second quarter. We had yet to kick a goal due to being smashed in the midfield. Carlton controlling play. Trac was moved forward for being beaten and ineffective through the midfield. Any forward line entry was easily accounted for due to poor entries. The move of Spaz and then ANB into the centre was when we started to wrestle momentum back. 
 

Games are won and lost in periods within a game. Rarely does a team control a game for 4 quarters. Our first halves, particularly second quarters are statistically poor when it comes to scoring. The most important stat, out of all the stats sits on the scoreboard each week. 

[At the break of Gawn 4,406]

13 hours ago, binman said:

With respect ATBOG i think you are using out of date metrics to assess performance - certainly different metrics to those i use, and at the risk of coming across like a know it all, different metrics than what footy clubs use to asses performance in the modern era. 

In 2024 the metrics coaches use to assess individual performance would include a whole bunch of information we as fans do not have access to.

The most important of these is playing their assigned role. Another is adherence to structures, systems and team rules - particularly those relating to the all system defensive system we employ. 

Another is work rate as measured by heir GPS numbers, including their total kms run, top speed, kms run at striding pace, sprint kms, defensive running, offensive running  etc etc. I know for fact that each player gets these numbers for every game AND every training session so they know if they have hit their targets. 

A key one is the KPIs for their line, in this case the mid group. Coaches are interested in what individuals do as part of their specific line and any individual KPIs are directly informed by whatr that group is tryting achive and what the indicators of success.  

Others are pre and post clearance uncontested contested possessions and there are no doubt many more that I'm not aware of

Then there are the numbers that are publicly available, including things like pressure, contested possessions, score involvements, goal assists, one percenters, contested marks, intercepts, spoils uncontested marks etc etc.

Each player would have a group of stats and indicators specific to their role in the team. That's to say not all stats are relevant for each player. 

I doubt coaches use disposal numbers in of themselves at all, or if they do only for specific players because in specific circumstances (eg they have been asked to get more involved). Coaches are interested in impact and disposal numbers are absolutely useless as a measure of impact. 

Take Billings. Posters have been confidently predicting and/or calling for him to be dropped for weeks and it seems to me that is largely based on his low disposal numbers and seemingly low hurt factor. 

But as i argued on the podcast if he is a fixture in the side we can be certain he is meeting his individual KPIs, in particular playing his role and doing what he needs to do from a systems and structure perspective.

Which is why i was so confident he would not be dropped this week (and it wasn't because we didn't have alternatives - Hunter, Laurie, Woey all could have come in for him). 

So given we don't have access to the critical information to say that you can 'absolutely guarantee you that Goody would not be happy with our midfield to date' is, to be frank, patent nonsense. 

A couple of other random comments:

• Viney has been quieter for the last 3-4 weeks but was brilliant in our first 4 games 
• Oliver's numbers are crazy good given his limited preseason and playing with a broken hand for 3 games, sore ribs for at least one (the tiger game) and recovering from surgery in the last game
• Petracca is struggling with a tag? Really? Would have struggled to get 20 possessions if he didn't go forward? You are judging him on a scenario that didn't happen based on your predictive power? C'mon. 
• Our mission are 'posting records low numbers'? 
•  I didn't 'blame the defenders' for giving up 5 goals from the centre 
• In fact i explicitly acknowledged the mids are a factor in the ream giving scores from center clearances, noting the 'mids are only one factor in influencing whether an opponent scores a goal from a centre clearance'
• By the by, do me a favor and try to avoid misrepresenting my comments
• Yes i said the defenders were one of the factor, because Goody made clear in his presser, they were
• Clearances are no longer as important an indicator for most teams, certainly not for us - so whilst they are still important they are not nearly as important as they were say 10 years ago (turnover related stats are way more significant now) 
• Take the Cats - before we played them they were unbeaten but were 17th for stoppage clearances won
• You seem to be under valuing the importance of the pressure stats - the clubs don't 
• On pressure, there is a contradiction in your post above - you note how important it is mids don't allow their opponents out the front. How do you think they do that? Spoiler alert- by applying pressure 

I’m not questioning their effort, I’m questioning their ball winning ability. If they’re not winning the ball, then the opposition mids are. You can throw all your stats at me, but when we let the opposition prime mids get 34 and 35 disposals each with 2.1 goals between them, and lose contested possession, then it’s a smashing. 

Do you know when we also got smashed in the middle? The Lions game, Swans in OR and the Port game which we only really got over the line with unbelievable accuracy.

[D4Life 2,400]

15 hours ago, Ollie fan said:

Don't agree that he marked it - another split second , and maybe yes, but it was ok not to pay it. And in the first quarter Petty held on to one in the forward pocket for longer- not paid - and the spoil was over the shoulder - not paid. I don't actually complain about either decision.

 

 As i have  said in another thread, the problem is not the umpires: it's the rules.

Agree on the rules

[binman 41,923]

1 hour ago, At the break of Gawn said:

I’m not questioning their effort, I’m questioning their ball winning ability. If they’re not winning the ball, then the opposition mids are. You can throw all your stats at me, but when we let the opposition prime mids get 34 and 35 disposals each with 2.1 goals between them, and lose contested possession, then it’s a smashing. 

Do you know when we also got smashed in the middle? The Lions game, Swans in OR and the Port game which we only really got over the line with unbelievable accuracy.

Finding common ground on any topic requires respectful debate.

I'm well up for robust, respectful debate and whilst I can sometimes be guilty of being overly sarcastic and/or dismissive that is the exception not the rule

Adding a laugh emjoji to my previous post, which was a genuine good faith attempt at respectful dialogue and debate, is your prerogative.

However, given I didn’t make any gags, laughing at my attempt fo engage and debate respectfully is obviously not going to foster respectful debate or us finding common ground.

Given a respectful debate seems unlikely, we wont find common ground and further debate will just be a source of annoyance to us both.

Life's too short for that sort of palaver.

So lets put a pin in it, agree to disagree and move on.

[leave it to deever 17,445]

21 hours ago, At the break of Gawn said:

This just simply isn’t true. Cripps and Walsh both had 34 and 35 disposals and kicked 2.1 between them. If Cerra had run out the game he also would have had 30+. To blame the defenders on the 5 centre clearances is also extremely short sighted and black and white thinking. Our defenders rely heavily on the pressure up the ground and Carlton had numerous exits at the front of the stoppage which allowed them easy looks. Do you think the Dogs in 2021 blame all of Melbourne’s centre clearance goals on their defence? No they blame it on their mids who allowed clean exit from the centre square.

Let’s also analyse your “mids are having a good season comment” by looking at our 3 prime mids.

Viney: Averaging 21 disposals a game - very average for a full time mid and clearly down on form. Don’t throw me pressure stats, I’m talking about pure ball in hand stuff.

Oliver - Averaging 25 disposals compared to his usual 29 and only 4 clearances compared to his usual 9.

Petracca- Matching his usual career average but has struggled with a tag. If he didn’t go forward he probably would have finished sub 20 disposals for the match.

As a team we’ve also only won contested possessions 4 times and clearances 5 which used to be our one wood. For a team that supposed to be focused on “contest and defence” our contest work, especially in the middle, has been lacking all year. I can absolutely guarantee you that Goody would not be happy with our midfield to date. I know our forwards were poor on Thursday night, but to give our midfield a pass is just crazy when they’re posting record low numbers. What makes it even more disappointing is that Gawn is having an almighty year but our mids haven’t capitalised at all. None of our mids except for Petracca (mainly on his score involvements) would be in the conversation for AA this year.

What's also worrying is our lack of midfield depth. 

[leave it to deever 17,445]

28 minutes ago, binman said:

Finding common ground on any topic requires respectful debate.

I'm well up for robust, respectful debate and whilst I can sometimes be guilty of being overly sarcastic and/or dismissive that is the exception not the rule

Adding a laugh emjoji to my previous post, which was a genuine good faith attempt at respectful dialogue and debate, is your prerogative.

However, given I didn’t make any gags, laughing at my attempt fo engage and debate respectfully is obviously not going to foster respectful debate or us finding common ground.

Given a respectful debate seems unlikely, we wont find common ground and further debate will just be a source of annoyance to us both.

Life's too short for that sort of palaver.

So lets put a pin in it, agree to disagree and move on.

Mmmmm pavlova 

[TassieDevil 137]

On 11/05/2024 at 13:33, Jjrogan said:

Where's the metric for that?  A few research studies say they get it right over 90 percent of the time.

I want to see the research studies, particularly the methodologies that conclude it was right/wrong.

I rarely get to live games living in Tasmania, but down here I found myself coaching the umpires where to position themselves as they were blindsided numerous times. I stand by by view that they have no idea.

 

 

 

[Engorged Onion 10,117]

6 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

Ive noticed your recent posts lack depth. It would be great to see more substantive contributions from you in the future.

[jnrmac 19,890]

6 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

What's also worrying is our lack of midfield depth. 

Not sure that is right. ANB and Sparrow did start to get more control around the middle.

My frustration is that we saw what Collingwood did the week before. Cripps and Walsh were shepherded physically from the  drop of the ball at centre bounces. The Pies nullified their influence.  We had zero answer.

Stoppage is Carlton's 1 wood. 5 goals direct from the centre.

Also our delivery into our fwd 50 was shiite. we had more i50s in the first half but Fritsch, Petty and Kozzie had 1 possession between them. Weitering alone had 12. Bombs away baby. No lowering of the eyes. Dumb football

After the first 3 goals we should have gone into hold the ball chip mode but we had no other plan.

And Carlton kicked the first goal of every qtr. Seriously WTF? You can point to clearance stats and say oh we matched them but the goals they kicked from centre bounce were critical

[binman 41,923]

2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Also our delivery into our fwd 50 was shiite. we had more i50s in the first half but Fritsch, Petty and Kozzie had 1 possession between them. Weitering alone had 12. Bombs away baby. No lowering of the eyes. Dumb football

After the first 3 goals we should have gone into hold the ball chip mode but we had no other plan.

And Carlton kicked the first goal of every qtr. Seriously WTF?

the goals they kicked from centre bounce were critical

100% agree with above.

The goals at the beginning of quarters - and a couple they scored quickly after we had scored one - were a huge factor in the loss

But on the positive side, we had momentum butbfor most teams those sort of goals are momentum killers.

We were able to keep scoring and keep the momentum 

[defuture15 891]

On 11/05/2024 at 17:57, Ollie fan said:

Don't agree that he marked it - another split second , and maybe yes, but it was ok not to pay it. And in the first quarter Petty held on to one in the forward pocket for longer- not paid - and the spoil was over the shoulder - not paid. I don't actually complain about either decision.

 

 As i have  said in another thread, the problem is not the umpires: it's the rules.

Totally agree that the rules need to be simplified.

Holding the ball, incorrect disposal and push in the back should be obvious

I have been saying to all supporters watching the footy not to worry about the umpiring

Just look at the scoreboard. The majority of the time you cant see what a free kick is for