My Round 16 Preview and Prediction

[CHF 2,738]

12-2

14 rounds and a bye weekend played…..12 wins….. 48 points in the premiership bank and a game clear of the Bulldogs.

Always good to beat the Drug Cheats and always good to know they are moaning and making excuses… we coulda…. shoulda... woulda...... Biased Umps……. yeah, yeah, yeah……. Every one is against you. Suck it up.

We have the bye behind us and the way the game panned out was very much like the games before the bye. We wandered through the game with the coaches making adjustments where required and the players do what needed to be done without any player other than May looking as if they were out of first gear. I found it frustrating but was happy to get the 4 points. Any game is a good game if you walk away a winner. I think we were surprised by the Bomber’s pressure in the first quarter and a lot of players were caught with the ball. It was not until the second quarter that the adjustment was made.

And so, to Round 16 and we play the Great Waste of Space in the early game at the ‘G’ on Saturday. They have a stronger team (on paper) than last time we met, but that counts for little if they don’t turn up. I expect a reaction from them after dropping their last game to the Hawks. I also get the impression that there is no love lost between them and us. They will be on their toes in the first quarter at least.

The facts:

We are coming off a grinding win – Advantage us

The game is at the ‘G – Advantage us

We have an extra day rest – Advantage us

They are coming off a loss last week against the Hawks – Advantage us

No excuses! (honestly, I did look for something for them to hang their hat on and could not find anything…..)

Problem areas of the game for us. Wash, rinse, repeat……Still the bloody forwards….

What can I say about our defence that I have not already said? They are solid as a rock at the back. Settled, well drilled and working together as a team very well. May and Lever giving invaluable guidance to Petty with Salem, Hunt, Rivers and Hibberd all connecting well. If this structure stay fit and in form we can beat any team, anywhere. Besides the Toby Jug kicking a couple last week, most of the rest of their goals came from their midfield players. Briggs named as a HF looks to have done some forward rucking and kicked one. We can defend GWS well.

Our midfield need to work harder and in a more straight forward way. Cut out trying to carry the ball through danger and get the ball forward. First option. GWS have some talent in the middle that we will have to play a bit of respect too. Hooper is their main avenue to clearances. He had 10 last week. Next best for them was 4. Oliver wins clearances (7 last week) but needs to put them to more harmful effect. I think Petracca will have a big one this week. Viney will be better for the run and it is good to see him smiling after the game. Looked to enjoy it.

Max and Luke will dominate the ruck contests against whoever they put in there. Flynn and Briggs look to have shared the rucking and not to great effect. Taps to advantage are all well and good but it is the ones that are not to our advantage that we are not getting our hands to.

Oh dear……. Now for the forwards…….

The good; Not a lot to report here… we did kick a winning score… a low winning score… a winning score with a lot of behinds

The bad; Wow. Where to start? No forward targets….

The ugly; Maybe this week it could be BBB’s hair.

Another week, another win without a recognisable structure to the forward line. We took 14 marks inside our forward 50…. Really that is what the stats say….. 14. We scored 9 goals 14. Please, please….fix this…. Brown to come in? if so, will that make it any better?

Shaking my head here…. No idea what could fix it but then again, I am not paid the big bucks by the MFC to come up with answers to problems, and the people that are, are not providing answers.

Selection….. Back 7 select themselves as do the core of the midfield. Forwards will be much THE discussion. Without a second tall last week Tmac tried to be all over the place and many times it seemed we were without a target because he was up field looking to link into the forwards. Ben Brown to come in and someone to go out….. Not many will agree but I would drop Kossie for a game or two. He did not give us much last week and I think he could do with a run at Casey and some close coaching.

I have a new wing courtesy of the Drug Cheats on the Bathwater Express. A bit of a mis-fire last week but a bit of adjustment and we will have it running smoothly once again. Plenty of spare seats available.

Last week I predicted a 6 goal win….. got it wrong…. Got the win but not the margin….. Ok 6 goals better than GWS this week. I am sure there is a 6 goal win there somewhere.

 

Go Dees!!!

[RalphiusMaximus 6,053]

If Brown kicks three goals, is that a success?  That seems to be his thing, 2-3 goals a match.  He doesn't provide as much around the ground as other options, but we know that he will hit those few goals semi-reliably every game.  I would think his fitness and lack of defensive game were the big reasons for him being dropped.  Can we afford to let him be a stay-at-home FF while the rest of the side zones? 

[BDA 22,755]

GWS were very poor v the hawks. they had a great chance to move into the 8 and completely fluffed their lines. They are just not very good

Toby Greene is a super player. We'll have to keep a close eye on him. It's a job for May I reckon. Contain Greene and i don't think the Giants have much else to offer.

If we kick straight we win by 6-7 goals. If we don't them it'll be another nervous 10-15 point win

[ucanchoose 1,816]

Last time we played Jetta got beaten by every player that he was on.. absolute bath.   A big MCG compared to Manuka.... 8 goal win

[CHF 2,738]

16 minutes ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

If Brown kicks three goals, is that a success?  That seems to be his thing, 2-3 goals a match.  He doesn't provide as much around the ground as other options, but we know that he will hit those few goals semi-reliably every game.  I would think his fitness and lack of defensive game were the big reasons for him being dropped.  Can we afford to let him be a stay-at-home FF while the rest of the side zones? 

Proper questions those...... now if only MFC had the coaches that could answer them confidently....

[adonski 12,160]

GWS are far too talented to take lightly but if you get a lead on them they never fight their way back. BBB in would definitely stretch their defence which is probably their weakest line. 

[dee-tox 4,835]

Their midfield is decent, sometimes good: Whitfield, Kelly, Tarranto, Greene, Ward, deBoer, etc.

Not too much else to worry about.