"Can the Demons think outside the box and take that last step?" In-depth HPN Article

[deelete my account 1,194]

 http://www.hpnfooty.com/?p=30343
 

Some interesting analysis on how we've narrowed our avenues to attack this year without Watts & Garlett, compared to last year with some scoring graphs and how better teams have blunted the attack. Particularly interesting was the contention "Instead of almost completely forgoing the kicks at goal from pockets and low value wide spots, they may need to field players who can plausibly threaten from wide angles. Establishing at least the illusion that leads and shots will eventuate from there should open up other parts of the forward line."

And on some defensive issues with getting the right mix, Jetta's contested one on one's: "This year Jetta has lost 39% of such contests, last year his rate was 27.5%" A result of having to take the oppositions second best forward on many occasions. With a lead in to the selection of Petty being one such move to address our defensive mix and help out Jetta.
 

Edited June 29, 2018 by John Demonic

[Earl Hood 6,141]

Interesting analysis, the fact we go forward in a narrower corridor makes us more accurate at goal as we have demonstrated in our big wins against lower sides but has also made us vulnerable against the better sides as they just set up to counter our predictable attacks and in some cases such as Hawks and Tigers where they just strangled us to a standstill. It is akin to that situation where you have one gun forward and go to him 9 out of 10 times and thus become predictable and defendable, think G Ablett Snr and Buddy in finals over the years. 

We have to get our forwards spreading more and our mids looking for wider options. We do practice this at training, quick, unpredictable ball movement forward but don’t see it on game day that often. 

 

[deanox 10,045]

I wasnt at the game and those who were may provide more insight but on tv I felt that Port were blocking up our usual attacking spot. In a way they ignored the ball carrier outside 50 and didn't need to defend the pockets as much but blocked the space we led into and made sure there was always congestion where the ball landed. 

I wonder how much of this was due to their study of our ball movement patterns?

[Adam The God 30,602]

Great article. Thanks for sharing.

[Diamond_Jim 12,686]

Briliant Article and underlines the need to develop the wide accurate kicker.

Now that Jack W has gone do we have a player that you would say is an 80% chance of kicking the goal from 45 out on the boundary.

We also need to learn the various plays that leave the scoring zone uncrowded.

[puntkick 325]

As Kanga Kennedy once famously said

" Don't think just DO "

[P-man 13,366]

What a great read. Thanks for sharing.

Imagine if mainstream media wrote stuff like this. What a very different media landscape it would be and how better off we would all be as a result.

[Rogue 585]

Thanks for the link. I've been crying out for half-decent writing about the game - cricket is so far ahead in this respect that it's not funny.

If anyone else feels the same, I reckon there are probably more hidden gems linked to from here: http://www.hpnfooty.com/?page_id=22569

 

[Lampers 563]

It’s a bit like basketball. Shooting from the key gives high scoring percentage 1 on 1, but if all a team does is go there with no outside shooting threats it’s really easy to defend because you just block up the key so it’s never 1on 1.

It’s not until the opposition take and make some outside shots that you bother to defend them -which opens up the key for them to take easier high percentage close shots again.

This is absolutely a classic coaching game plan problem to solve.

[Diamond_Jim 12,686]

1 hour ago, Lampers said:

It’s a bit like basketball. Shooting from the key gives high scoring percentage 1 on 1, but if all a team does is go there with no outside shooting threats it’s really easy to defend because you just block up the key so it’s never 1on 1.

It’s not until the opposition take and make some outside shots that you bother to defend them -which opens up the key for them to take easier high percentage close shots again.

This is absolutely a classic coaching game plan problem to solve.

So right and now the 3pointer is the key shot

[ProperDee 1,698]

Great  article. It highlights issues that on face value, our coaches can easily remedy one would think. It also highlights the glaring lack of a Plan "B" which has been the cause of my elevated blood pressure on a number of occasions this year.

[deanox 10,045]

I think the theory in the article that our coaching staff are focused on quality of shots is supported by the "diamond defence" we have deployed at times.  The concept of that defence was that we protect the "High percentage" shot area in a zone formation but concede the flanks and pockets, where conversion rate is low. 

This year we have applied it in reverse: always drop the eyes and look for someone in the hot spot. 

 

For anyone concerned about Goodwins coaching, this article should lay those concerns to rest. It shows we are constantly analysis and changing and improving. I agree we need options for when Plan A is countered, and we will learn them with time as we learn the counters.  A coach doesn't did this level of analysis and planning and then stop, He constantly tweaks. 

 

 

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,283]

A great read. Thanks for the share. 

[Adam The God 30,602]

The essence of this article needs to be reemphasised here and pinned somewhere on Goodwin's forehead.

All we did was go long to the top of the square and usually to a 1 v 2 disadvantage, a pack or the disadvantage of our forward. 

I noticed more than a few times that if we got the ball at high half forward, no one broke into the larger space behind that forward. Some of that space was usually manned by an Armitage (who's slow) and could have been exploited. Instead, we went long nearly every time.

Our inside 50 entries were appalling and show that even against the weak teams (like St Kilda) that our game style breaks down dramatically and has been defeated. 

We must continue to evolve our brand and if it's not 'on' situationally, I'd bin that play. It's almost certainly a confidence thing, but Hogan is not the contested beast he was as a junior and in his first year. He doesn't lead up at the ball like he did and we're unlikely to take too many contested marks with that play. 

The other glaring problem with this continued play is that we're not inundated with crumbers. The only way this play is sustainable is if you've got guys that swarm with pace at the foot of packs (see Richmond). This either draws free kicks for markers or creates crumbling goals. At worst, it means your forwards can lock the ball in and reset for the stoppage and continue the territory battle to build pressure on the defence.

Jeff Garlett has to play next week and if we're going to persist with this style of play, we must target 2 or 3 quick small forwards. It's inexplicable that Hannan is the only deep small forward (Fritsch plays a bit like a third tall). We need Spargo back in too. FWIW, I'd tinker with our tall set up as well.

Edited July 1, 2018 by A F