A Day at the Races

[Macca 16,903]

2 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Best Bet:

Mooney Valley Race 8 Number 3

Trap For Fools. $2.30

Former WA galloper having fourth run in and should be hitting his straps fitness wise. Has improved each run this campaign and has some excuses in those runs.

By the look of it there’s not much pace here, the horse should be able to lead with Rawiller dictating the tactics and hopefully we see the famous dash away from rivals on the home turn.

The trainer of 'Trap For Fools' was on RSN this morning and he mentioned that the horse has an issue with a fetlock and might end up being scratched tomorrow morning.

I had the horse as a standout as well DZ but it's better that we now know that it has an issue.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

9 minutes ago, Macca said:

The trainer of 'Trap For Fools' was on RSN this morning and he mentioned that the horse has an issue with a fetlock and might end up being scratched tomorrow morning.

I had the horse as a standout as well DZ but it's better that we now know that it has an issue.

Thanks Macca, update greatly appreciated. Back to the form guide.....I have another picked in Adelaide but the track condition will need to improve quickly for me to make it a ‘Best’.

[Macca 16,903]

26 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Thanks Macca, update greatly appreciated. Back to the form guide.....I have another picked in Adelaide but the track condition will need to improve quickly for me to make it a ‘Best’.

Yeah the way the trainer was talking indicated that the vet may well scratch 'Trap for Fools' anyway DZ ... it was Gator's best bet

[binman 42,606]

My best bets for this round of footy

Richmond to make their line of 15.5 

Comments: The Total Match Point (TMP) line is only 155.5 which is the only reason i can see for the line being at 15.5. At the G the tigers are a 5 goal better side than the cats and if there is some rain about (which is why the TMP is so low) it will help the Tigers as rain suits their hyper pressure style and conversely hurts the Cats as it will negate Hawkins. So a line of 15.5 is terrific value. 

By the by the forecast is for showers to clear so 155.5 TMP is pretty low, though it is bound to be a high pressure affair.

Roos to make their line of -2.5 

Comments: Yes Higgins is out, which is a big blow and it is Lions home game but i cannot believe Lions are starting favorites in this match. North are pushing for finals and a loss would really hurt them. Surely the Roos have the greater motivation.

I will add however that my mate who i bet with has send his weekly email with his best bets and has the lions as one of them! So we will be trying to convince each other the other is wrong.

 

Edited August 3, 2018 by binman

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, binman said:

My best bets for this round of footy

Richmond to make their line of 15.5 

Comments: The Total Match Point (TMP) line is only 155.5 which is the only reason i can see for the line being at 15.5. At the G the tigers are a 5 goal better side than the cats and if there is some rain about (which is why the TMP is so low) it will help the Tigers as rain suits their hyper pressure style and conversely hurts the Cats as it will negate Hawkins. So a line of 15.5 is terrific value. 

By the by the forecast is for showers to clear so 155.5 TMP is pretty low, though it is bound to be a high pressure affair.

Roos to make their line of -2.5 

Comments: Yes Higgins is out, which is a big blow and it is Lions home game but i cannot believe Lions are starting favorites in this match. North are pushing for finals and a loss would really hurt them. Surely the Roos have the greater motivation.

I will add however that my mate who i bet with has send his weekly email with his best bets and has the lions as one of them! So we will be trying to convince each other the other is wrong.

 

Good work BM. I agree and cant see the tigers losing at the G after winning 18 on the trot there. The Cats get a sniff of a few wins and suddenly their fans are crying premiership ! The only reason they are even in the race is because of us.  I think Richmond will smash them.  I also tend to agree with the Roos and its a pretty short line. In this match i like either side less than 15.5 pts. I like this bet when its a close affair and i cant make my mind up! Normally pays around 2.60.

 

Edited August 3, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,903]

3 big Group 1's raced midweek from Goodwood (UK) ... my main interest is in watching the best of the best run around but also,  if any of these horses end up racing in Australia,  we'll know a little bit about them.   As for the punt,  two 2nd's and 1 win!  Slightly in front.

Those horses that might be brought to our shores to race in the cups are more likely to derive from the Goodwood Cup ... the first video.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 3, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Bit of a tip around for Mooney Valley Race 1 No 3 All in Brawl. Brained em at Geelong. 2nd start and retains Melham as jockey and carrying less weight. Paying 3.30.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,903]

22 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Bit of a tip around for Mooney Valley Race 1 No 3 All in Brawl. Brained em at Geelong. 2nd start and retains Melham as jockey and carrying less weight. Paying 3.30.

And both Gator & Hutchy like 'Lord Barrington' at good odds in the lucky last at Moonee Valley ... I got on last night at 15-1 (boosted) ... it's come into $12/$13 boosted but the consensus opinion from the 'Get On' crew was that the horse was quite a deal over the odds.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

21 minutes ago, Macca said:

And both Gator & Hutchy like 'Lord Barrington' at good odds in the lucky last at Moonee Valley ... I got on last night at 15-1 (boosted) ... it's come into $12/$13 boosted but the consensus opinion from the 'Get On' crew was that the horse was quite a deal over the odds.

Thanks Macca, ill have a look. Often i throw those types into a multi for a place, as they still pay really well.

[Macca 16,903]

27 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Thanks Macca, ill have a look. Often i throw those types into a multi for a place, as they still pay really well.

$3.10 for the place is Lord Barrington ... as you're no doubt aware,  a 4 pick place multi can often deliver around 20-1 or 25-1 Wadda.  A smarter option than a win only multi although you might throw a a quality horse like Kementari in for the win.  

Letting a multi ride into Sunday's Grand National Hurdle is an option too ... 'Self Sense' is all the rage paying $2 for the win.  The Tigers at the -15.5 line looks like getting up too. 

I've gone away from multi's a fair bit but a place-card multi combined with a couple of sporting head-to head's has some appeal for a small outlay.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 minute ago, Macca said:

$3.10 for the place is Lord Barrington ... as you're no doubt aware,  a 4 pick place multi can often deliver around 20-1 or 25-1 Wadda.  A smarter option than a win only multi although you might throw a a quality horse like Kementari in for the win.  

Letting a multi ride into Sunday's Grand National Hurdle is an option too ... 'Self Sense' is all the rage paying $2 for the win.  The Tigers at the -15.5 line looks like getting up too. 

I've gone away from multi's a bit but a place-card multi has some appeal for a small outlay.

I did eggzactly that Macca.......Thanks for that tip for the Grand National, ill have a look at that too...

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I know its a silly bet but.....( i love silly bets sometimes).......... Tom McDonald is 13 goals behind the leader in the Coleman........now if he had a bit of a day out against the Gold Coast, he could come into contention. hes currently 100/1...you might get offered a nice cash out..

Edit: seems that was yesterday....hes now 51.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[binman 42,606]

Fortunately my mate disagreed with my tigers line bet. But agreed with the tmp bet. So a good win.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 minute ago, binman said:

Fortunately my mate disagreed with my tigers line bet. But agreed with the tmp bet. So a good win.

I took them 1-39 as well luckily.....whats a tmp?

[binman 42,606]

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I took them 1-39 as well luckily.....whats a tmp?

Total match points, which was 155.5.

A bet that in previous years have done pretty well wirh and was my main footy betting option. But very few this season because unlike last few years has been super variable. Though if you had taken unders every game you would be well up.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

19 hours ago, Macca said:

The trainer of 'Trap For Fools' was on RSN this morning and he mentioned that the horse has an issue with a fetlock and might end up being scratched tomorrow morning.

I had the horse as a standout as well DZ but it's better that we now know that it has an issue.

Nice heads up there Macca. The horse was scratched this morning. Adelaide track still a heavy 8 so I’m considering skipping past Domination in Race 7. The $1.95 is too short now for my liking.  Back soon with another ‘Best’.

[Macca 16,903]

53 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Nice heads up there Macca. The horse was scratched this morning. Adelaide track still a heavy 8 so I’m considering skipping past Domination in Race 7. The $1.95 is too short now for my liking.  Back soon with another ‘Best’.

'Lord Barrington' is now out of the last at Moonee Valley as well ... might have a trifecta in that race instead. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Oh Boy’.... that took a while. Had some real trouble finding a standout.

Best Bet:

Randwick Race 6 Number 4

Smartedge $3.40

The race will run to suit. Will settle back and have one last crack at them. Winner last start, they weren’t making much ground on that particular day which makes the win even better. Form should hold up well, ran 2nd behind Star Of Monsoon two starts back and the third place getter Paret was a subsequent winner. 

Edited August 4, 2018 by Dee Zephyr

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

10 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Oh Boy’.... that took a while. Had some real trouble finding a standout.

Best Bet:

Randwick Race 6 Number 4

Smartedge $3.40

The race will run to suit. Will settle back and have one last crack at them. Winner last start, they weren’t making much ground on that particular day which makes the win even better. Form should hold up well, ran 2nd behind Star Of Monsoon and the third place getter Paret was a subsequent winner. 

Well done DZ, its hard to find one for sure...

Ok so BBs this week are:

Randwick race 6 No 4 Smartedge  $3.40

Royal Randwick Race 7 No 1 Kentamari  $2.10

Mooney Valley Race 5 No 5 Streets of Avalon  $3.10   (current Ladbrokes prices)

That gives us approx $22.00 for your lazy $......good luck team !

Edited August 4, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,903]

49 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Well done DZ, its hard to find one for sure...

Ok so BBs this week are:

Randwick race 6 No 4 Smartedge  $3.40

Royal Randwick Race 7 No 1 Kentamari  $2.10

Mooney Valley Race 5 No 5 Streets of Avalon  $3.10   (current Ladbrokes prices)

That gives us approx $22.00 for your lazy $......good luck team !

I got 25-1 boosted for our combo Wadda although 'Streets of Avalon' has come right in overnight

Had a multi 'extra' with our 3 best bets as well as North winning along with 'Self Sense' winning the Grand National tomorrow.  Got 100-1 for the 5.  

But my main chances of winning today is with a few trifectas along with a few straight out win bets.  Feeling reasonably confident and am really looking forward to the Missile Stakes.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

16 minutes ago, Macca said:

I got 25-1 boosted for our combo Wadda although 'Streets of Avalon' has come right in overnight

Had a multi 'extra' with our 3 best bets as well as North winning along with 'Self Sense' winning the Grand National tomorrow.  Got 100-1 for the 5.  

But my main chances of winning today is with a few trifectas along with a few straight out win bets.  Feeling reasonably confident and am really looking forward to the Missile Stakes.

I got something like that as well.......

Thats a good multi.....good luck, Missile Stakes will be good.

What track do the run The Grand National Macca?

[Macca 16,903]

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I got something like that as well.......

Thats a good multi.....good luck, Missile Stakes will be good.

What track do the run The Grand National Macca?

Sandown Race 5 (tomorrow)

JJ's tips are up at Racing.com.  His best bet was scratched much like Gator's was.  I'm still following both tipsters though mainly because at this the time of the year the form is very tricky to read.

Even the Missile Stakes is a difficult affair with so many decent horses returning from spells ... I've boxed 5 in a trifecta but if Kementari is ready,  it should win. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

4 minutes ago, Macca said:

Sandown Race 5 (tomorrow)

JJ's tips are up at Racing.com.  His best bet was scratched much like Gator's was.  I'm still following both tipsters though mainly because at this the time of the year the form is very tricky to read.

Even the Missile Stakes is a difficult affair with so many decent horses returning from spells ... I've boxed 5 in a trifecta but if Kementari is ready,  it should win. 

Oh Sandown....haha, i was looking in England! No wonder i couldnt find it...

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I put our bets into North/Brisbane.....either under 15.5pts....(reckon it will be very close) got 66s so that will do me.

 

[Macca 16,903]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Oh Sandown....haha, i was looking in England! No wonder i couldnt find it...

Ha ha!  Well it's good to see that my relentless promotion of overseas racing is having an effect Wadda ?