A Day at the Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Best Bets:

Rosehill Race 7 Number 5   Cool Passion - Win $6.50

Caulfield Race 6 No 1 Hartnell (Plc) $4.40

Caulfield Race 7 No 11 Athiri (Plc)  $2.70

Caulfield Race 9 No  8 Avilius Win $2.10

The 4 picks combined if anyones game is 162/1 approx. Have a great day guys and please post updates how everyone is going.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

 Have a great day guys and please post updates how everyone is going.

Hopefully the wife isn’t going anywhere today.

[Macca 16,909]

7 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

We’d make a great panel on Sky ?, we’ve done our bit, time for the ponies to come to the party.

What surprises me is how short a number of the favourites are Deeza ... nearly all of the shorties are up against any number of other quality horses in each of the 10 races where they are hot favourites and as we know,  bad luck and interference can happen in any given race. 

For instance,  if Nature Strip misses the start by even a fraction of a second,  that might put pay to the horses' chances of winning.  It has great early speed but it sometimes jumps a bit tardy.  Big field with a lot of early speed - Nature Strip needs to jump well.

And sometimes drawing an inside barrier might also mean that a horse needs to be ridden for luck (unless that horse has good gate speed)  A good day for the exotics I reckon!

n.b.  JJ might be hosting from Morphettville again today as his tips haven't been posted up on Racing.com ... ugh.

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

5 minutes ago, Macca said:

What surprises me is how short a number of the favourites are Deeza ... nearly all of the shorties are up against any number of other quality horses in each of the 10 races where they are hot favourites and as we know,  bad luck and interference can happen in any given race. 

For instance,  if Nature Strip misses the start by even a fraction of a second,  that might put pay to the horses' chances of winning.  It has great early speed but it sometimes jumps a bit tardy.  Big field with a lot of early speed - Nature Strip needs to jump well.

And sometimes drawing an inside barrier might also mean that a horse needs to be ridden for luck (unless that horse has good gate speed)  A good day for the exotics I reckon!

n.b.  JJ might be hosting from Morphettville again today as his tips haven't been posted up on Racing.com ... ugh.

 

What actually technically sets the odds Macca. Is it more bookmakers math or weight of money? i always wonder.

Edited February 23, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,909]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

What actually technically sets the odds Macca. Is it more bookmakers math or weight of money? i always wonder.

Well there's false favourites and other horses that seem like they are 'overs' ... the late money or lack of late money is often an accurate factor too.  

I've got a cousin who was formerly a leading bookmaker (retired now) and I reckon they know a lot more than we know.  Their very existence is primarily based on getting the numbers right.  

The bookies would be loving all the money on the shorties ... they will almost certainly know that they can't all win and of course they can lay-off anyway.  Punters are attracted to the short odds as well as the value. 

Multi's in horse racing are in the bookies favour too - offering the early cash-out isn't necessarily of benefit to the punters either.  It's a way for the bookies to cut their losses.  And multi's are hard to get anyway (especially with the horses)  There's a lot of small donations that add up to a large total!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

Well there's false favourites and other horses that seem like they are 'overs' ... the late money or lack of late money is often an accurate factor too.  

I've got a cousin who was formerly a leading bookmaker (retired now) and I reckon they know a lot more than we know.  Their very existence is primarily based on getting the numbers right.  

The bookies would be loving all the money on the shorties ... they will almost certainly know that they can't all win and of course they can lay-off anyway.  Punters are attracted to the short odds as well as the value. 

Multi's in horse racing are in the bookies favour too - offering the early cash-out isn't necessarily of benefit to the punters either.  It's a way for the bookies to cut their losses.  And multi's are hard to get anyway (especially with the horses)  There's a lot of small donations that add up to a large total!

Ok so i guess the bookies set the early price and as the money comes in they change?

Please extend a warm invitation to your cousin to come and join A day at the Races crew.

[binman 42,629]

51 minutes ago, Macca said:

Avilius (no.8) is actually in race 9 (Peter Young Stakes) not race 8 anyway Wadda ... you may be thinking of Alizee in race 6. 

I get both horses mixed up as well sometimes - I'll leave it to you to figure out the combined odds ?

Brain fade. No wonder I stuffed up the tri last week!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 minute ago, binman said:

Brain fade. No wonder I stuffed up the tri last week!

Its all the excitement from beating Collingwood yesterday BM. My brain faded as well...

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

16 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Its all the excitement from beating Collingwood yesterday BM. My brain faded as well...

What excitement? I only played the theme song about 100 times on the way into work after the game.

Back on topic, keen to see how News Girl goes in the 4th at Caulfield. Two good runs behind Crack The Code although it didn’t run too well last night, mate says the step up to 1400 shouldn’t be a problem. 

[Macca 16,909]

42 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Ok so i guess the bookies set the early price and as the money comes in they change?

Please extend a warm invitation to your cousin to come and join A day at the Races crew.

Ha ha ... can't see that happening even if he was a Demon supporter!

In fact,  of all the Demon mates and acquaintances I have,  I'm not sure any of them have even heard of Demonland

Different circles Wadda

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

8 minutes ago, Macca said:

Ha ha ... can't see that happening even if he was a Demon supporter!

In fact,  of all the Demon mates and acquaintances I have,  I'm not sure any of them have even heard of Demonland

Different circles Wadda

 

Special guest?

I put our 3 picks last night into Melbourne to win the flag and Angus to win Charlie....got 1000/1. why not!

....see what practice matches do to you..

Edited February 23, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

31 minutes ago, Macca said:

Ha ha ... can't see that happening even if he was a Demon supporter!

In fact,  of all the Demon mates and acquaintances I have,  I'm not sure any of them have even heard of Demonland

Different circles Wadda

 

JJ is on now Racing..com Macca

[Macca 16,909]

15 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

JJ is on now Racing..com Macca

You mean the racing channel Wadda ... yeah saw that and we didn't get JJ's tips as he is hosting (again) Instead of that we got Shane Adair's tips and he is like a stand-in for Sir Lawrence Olivier at a West End play!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

18 minutes ago, Macca said:

You mean the racing channel Wadda ... yeah saw that and we didn't get JJ's tips as he is hosting (again) Instead of that we got Shane Adair's tips and he is like a stand-in for Sir Lawrence Olivier at a West End play!

Yep thats it. Whats JJ best bet?

[Macca 16,909]

12 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yep thats it. Whats JJ best bet?

Morphettville Race 8 No.12 Behave ($2.30) ... too short for me although maybe in a multi with something else is the go. 

2 hot favourites beaten at Rosehill already (Burning Crown & Tassort)  More multi money for the Bookies.  And that's apart from the big money laid on for the win on both those horses.

Edited February 23, 2019 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Here goes Newsgirl race up now.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Well theyre coming from the back today.

What factors influence that Macca. One week a leaders track bias and not the next time? Is it the wind??

[Macca 16,909]

21 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Well theyre coming from the back today.

What factors influence that Macca. One week a leaders track bias and not the next time? Is it the wind??

The Caulfield track is racing well as it often does ... Moonee Valley is more often than not a leaders track and we should bet that way accordingly (as a general rule)  Caulfield is not in that category.   We've got the speed maps to help us at the Valley and Caulfield so in all actuality,  there are no excuses.  But there again,  I don't like looking for excuses.  The risk is always my risk.

Anyway,  3 red-hot favourites have bitten the dust now (Melb & Syd) ... Zousain run into 2nd in the Zeditive but the horse never really looked like it.  $1.45 is crazy odds anyway.  Not sure that Zousain is that good a horse after that effort.  Didn't get my money Wadda - just an observation.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 minute ago, Macca said:

The Caulfield track is racing well as it often does ... Moonee Valley is more often than not a leaders track and we should bet that way accordingly (as a general rule)  Caulfield is not in that category.   We've got the speed maps to help us at the Valley and Caulfield so in all actuality,  there are no excuses.  But there again,  I don't like looking for excuses.  The risk is always my risk.

Anyway,  3 red-hot favourites have bitten the dust now (Melb & Syd) ... Zousain run into 2nd in the Zeditive but the horse never really looked like it.  $1.45 is crazy odds anyway.  Not sure that Zousain is that good a horse after that effort.  Didn't get my money Wadda - just an observation.

DZ was saying someone put 37,250 just before the jump on Zedative. Should have kept the 250 to get home!

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

One punter just said goodbye to in excess of $37k after slapping it on Zousain. Can’t even say the punter got a run for their dosh. 

I say Insane, Zousain.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

DZ was saying someone put 37,250 just before the jump on Zedative. Should have kept the 250 to get home!

Yep, they’ll be needing a few of those ?

[Macca 16,909]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

DZ was saying someone put 37,250 just before the jump on Zedative. Should have kept the 250 to get home!

Who are these people with all that expendable income? haha

The horse (Zousain) was rated nearly 30 points better than its rivals but you'd never know that watching the race.

The Autumn Sun next up and its trial form has been ordinary.  Should have too much class in this race though.

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 minute ago, Macca said:

Who are these people with all that expendable income? haha

The horse (Zousain) was rated nearly 30 points better than its rivals but you'd never know that watching the race.

The Autumn Sun next up and its trial form has been ordinary.  Should have too much class in this race though.

 

They would be better off punting on A Day at the Races instead Macca!

[Macca 16,909]

Made hard work of it the champ (The Autumn Sun) ... is it the same horse? 

Next up is the Randwick Guineas in 2 weeks time.  Not sure the horse will start at prohibitive odds though.  One might get $3 or a shade better.

[Macca 16,909]

The big boy got up for 3rd ... there's a collect on the place.  Nice work Wadda

Got it going in the multi as well of course.  What a horse is Hartnell! 

Full credit to Alizee though - the horse is a top rater.