A Day at the Races

[Macca 16,611]

Almost back into full swing with 10 Group races this coming Saturday ...the mighty mare Winx returns in a Group 1 race at Randwick named in her honour whilst the feature event at Caulfield features any number of prominent horses that have been nominated.

Here's an article from Racenet.com with regards to the race ... The P. B. Lawrence Stakes  Group 2  1400m

[binman 41,948]

G'day punters. This weekend is the weekend my mate and i kick off our spring season on the punt. Love the run in from here to when the carnival proper begins. Always some great value and i think the next few weeks in Sydney are great from a punting perspective - particularly if wet as it narrows the chances. 

I look forward to buying the Winning Post on Friday morning and starting my form on the train into town. Will post my best bets on Saturday morning. 

I'm not into sports multis so happy for this thread to focus primarily on the ponies. That said happy to offer up my two best footy bets for remainder of the season. I have pretty good strike rate with the footy so if others want me to post my two best i will continue to do so

[Macca 16,611]

22 minutes ago, binman said:

G'day punters. This weekend is the weekend my mate and i kick off our spring season on the punt. Love the run in from here to when the carnival proper begins. Always some great value and i think the next few weeks in Sydney are great from a punting perspective - particularly if wet as it narrows the chances. 

I look forward to buying the Winning Post on Friday morning and starting my form on the train into town. Will post my best bets on Saturday morning. 

I'm not into sports multis so happy for this thread to focus primarily on the ponies. That said happy to offer up my two best footy bets for remainder of the season. I have pretty good strike rate with the footy so if others want me to post my two best i will continue to do so

I made an executive decision BM and started up another thread for the sports picks ... here

We chatted about it a bit here and reached a bit of an impasse but I'm confident that both threads will thrive between seasons.  Feel free to lend your expertise over there - you and @Dee Zephyr  both went 2 from 2 last weekend whilst I dipped out completely and Wadda got 1 from 2 and just missed on his 2nd pick.  The Rugby Internationals return next weekend so I may do better with that sport rather than baseball.

And we've missed your best bets too so it''s good to have you back ... there's some good racing coming up at Randwick & Caulfield next Saturday albeit a bit tricky with so many horses coming back from spells.  First up form and trial form will no doubt be a pointer though.

[Dee Zephyr 19,157]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Almost back into full swing with 10 Group races this coming Saturday ...the mighty mare Winx returns in a Group 1 race at Randwick named in her honour whilst the feature event at Caulfield features any number of prominent horses that have been nominated.

Here's an article from Racenet.com with regards to the race ... The P. B. Lawrence Stakes  Group 2  1400m

Can’t wait for the Spring Carnival to be honest, having a tough time following our Demons at the moment, can’t imagine how we could handle September if we made it. 

Anyways, here’s a list of big races that Santos is nominated in, why not aim high when your horse is trained by the Waterhouse/Bott combo.

Golden Rose Stakes [Group 1] 1400m 22nd September 

Caulfield Guineas 1600m 13th October

Ladbrokes Cox Plate 2040m 27 October [49kg]

I will update on lead-up races as they come to hand. Could be a very exciting Spring. The horse is not guaranteed to be running in any of the above races but mapping out a prep is essential. Hopefully it all goes to plan. 

Edited August 13, 2018 by Dee Zephyr

[Macca 16,611]

2 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Can’t wait for the Spring Carnival to be honest, having a tough time following our Demons at the moment, can’t imagine how we could handle September if we made it. 

Anyways, here’s a list of big races that Santos is nominated in, why not aim high when your horse is trained by the Waterhouse/Bott combo.

Golden Rose Stakes [Group 1] 1400m 22nd September 

Caulfield Guineas 1600m 13th October

Ladbrokes Cox Plate 2040m 27 October [49kg]

I will update on lead-up races as they come to hand. Could be a very exciting Spring.

That's quite a trio of high quality races ... Santos might again cross paths with the Rosebud winner from Saturday (Sandbar) In fact,  following the paths of a lot of the 2YO's from the Autumn could be quite fruitful.  A lot of those now 3YO'S will be racing over the next 2 or 3 weeks. 

For instance,  Sunlight,  Mig Energy,  Rock Hard,  The August,  Long Leaf & Setsuna could all be running around at Caulfield on Saturday. 

[binman 41,948]

59 minutes ago, Macca said:

I made an executive decision BM and started up another thread for the sports picks ... here

there's some good racing coming up at Randwick & Caulfield next Saturday albeit a bit tricky with so many horses coming back from spells.  First up form and trial form will no doubt be a pointer though.

No problemo.

I quite like the early race each season as first and second up form is on the whole a pretty reliable indicator. Some just come back better than others i 'weight' first and second up form quite high in my form analysis.

That said it is of course not exact and i often get bloused by horses that have rubbish first up form and the trainer has changed something or it runs out of its skin.

The other thing about the early races is that some good horses peak early in their prep and fall away. And so you can get ok odds and then avoid the losses at shorter odds. One horse that comes to mind is Black Heart Bart

[Macca 16,611]

As previously mentioned there are 11 group races across 4 states to be run on Saturday with a lot of the now 3YO's returning as well as some standout WFA races featuring some old favourites.  Here are 6 of the 11 races to keep an eye out for ...

Randwick Race 4  Silver Shadow Stakes  3YO Fillies  1200m Group 2

Randwick Race 6  Winx Stakes  WFA  1400m Group 1

Randwick Race 7  Show County  Quality  1200m Group 3

Caulfield Race 5  Vain Stakes  3YO C & G  1100m Group 3

Caulfield Race 7  P.B. Lawrence Stakes  WFA  1400m Group 2

Caulfield Race 8  Regal Roller Stakes  Hcp  1200m Listed

As well as the above 'Dollar for Dollar' is running around in the Spring Stakes in Adelaide,  'Sunlight' is running in the Quezette Stakes at Caulfield and 'Spin' is entered in the Up & Coming Stakes at Randwick.  

Unfortunately Alizee & Estijaab are both out for the Spring but both horses are expected to return to racing next Autumn.  And 'She Will Reign' has been retired after mild inflammation was discovered in her lower airway.  The horse was purchased for just $20k but won $3.2Million in prizemoney including a Golden Slipper & a Moir Stakes.

In other news - on Tuesday morning a quartet of tipsters on RSN nominated their horses to follow for the Spring. 

Namely - Grunt,  Miss Fabulass,  D'argento,  Hiyaam,  Tosen Basil,  Unforgotten,  Homesman,  Brutal & Land of Plenty.  Listen to the full podcast here - features David Gately & Mick Sharkie

Edited August 15, 2018 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 19,157]

I was listening to RSN this morning during school drop-off and heard the news of Torcedor, a once early market favourite for the Melbourne Cup being bought by a German consortium.

Connections apparently decided against bringing the horse to Oz for the Cup but the offer to sell was too good to refuse. A Melbourne Cup trip might be back on for the horse.....watch this space. Currently @$26 and $7.25.

Edited August 16, 2018 by Dee Zephyr

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I would just like to point out that ladbrokes are offering $2.00 on Winx to run first or 2nd. The max bet is only 20 unfortunately, but still. Im on that for sure....they must be making too much money.

[Macca 16,611]

11 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

I was listening to RSN this morning during school drop-off and heard the news of Torcedor, a once early market favourite for the Melbourne Cup being bought by a German consortium.

Connections apparently decided against bringing the horse to Oz for the Cup but the offer to sell was too good to refuse. A Melbourne Cup trip might be back on for the horse.....watch this space. Currently @$26 and $7.25.

 

Interesting development DZ ... here's Torcedor's form and in the video below,  it's last race,  run just over 2 weeks ago.  It's a 2 miler,  that's for sure.

 

 

6 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I would just like to point out that ladbrokes are offering $2.00 on Winx to run first or 2nd. The max bet is only 20 unfortunately, but still. Im on that for sure....they must be making too much money.

 

Just got on ... thanks for the heads up Wadda.

 

 

 

Edited August 16, 2018 by Macca

[Macca 16,611]

Best Bet ...

Caulfield Race 6 No.1 Sunlight $3.50

If she brings her absolute A game she should win.  Her rating is miles higher than any of her rivals.  Drawn an inside gate (3) so she should be around the lead from the jump - which is her go. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,157]

Best Bet

Royal Randwick Race 4 Number 3

Oohood $2.40

Now that the filly has tasted victory albeit a jumpout at Flemington over 800m a couple of weeks back, there’s no stopping her from here. She’s actually never won a barrier trial either before the jumpout. 

I think she’s high class and the trainer believes she would even love it up to a mile. 

6 placings from 6 starts with prizemoney just under $1mil. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Best Bet:

Caulfield Regal Roller Stakes Race 8 No 3

Osborne Bulls  $3.30

2 from 2 first up, drawn wide, Williams to ride. First time in Victoria but should get the chocolates.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Best Bets:   (so far)

Caulfield Race 6 No1 Sunlight $3.50

Caulfield Race 8 No 3 Osborne Bulls $3.30

Royal Randwick Race 4 No 3 Oohood $2.40

I got 27.50 for my 1 dollar (enhanced) on Ladbrokes as a preliminary punt....and,

I think Binman is still to come, so we shall eagerly await his selection........

 

Aretha Franklin has passed, just heard. Very sad.

Edited August 16, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

14 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Best Bets:   (so far)

Caulfield Race 6 No1 Sunlight $3.50

Caulfield Race 8 No 3 Osborne Bulls $3.30

Royal Randwick Race 4 No 3 Oohood $2.40

I got 27.50 for my 1 dollar (enhanced) on Ladbrokes as a preliminary punt....and,

I think Binman is still to come, so we shall eagerly await his selection........

 

Aretha Franklin has passed, just heard. Very sad.

All these are coming in a little with Osborne the most now into 2.70, Oohood 2.30 and Sunlight 3.40. I like all 3 of them, if they just do what they normally do then....

[binman 41,948]

Have done my form for Caulfield, Randwick and the group race at Morphetville. Really terrific days racing. Quietly confident.

Will post my best tomorrow morning when i see how the tracks and odds come up. 

have posted my best footy bets here

Edited August 17, 2018 by binman

[binman 41,948]

My best for tomorrow, on what is a great day is Le Romain first up. Deserves a win and dropping back from group 1 class i ti think will get it done. Big weight but huge class edge over the second favourite Siege of Quebec, is unders in my humble.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Best Bets:  

Caulfield Race 6 No 1 Sunlight $3.50

Caulfield Race 8 No 3 Osborne Bulls $3.30

Royal Randwick Race 4 No 3 Oohood $2.40

Royal Randwick Race 7 No 1 Le Romain $2.35

now if you felt like multying those up for a lazy $1 you would get around $50 back. There is always the place option as well. Not bad for those 4!

[Macca 16,611]

29 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Best Bets:  

Caulfield Race 6 No 1 Sunlight $3.50

Caulfield Race 8 No 3 Osborne Bulls $3.30

Royal Randwick Race 4 No 3 Oohood $2.40

Royal Randwick Race 7 No 1 Le Romain $2.35

now if you felt like multying those up for a lazy $1 you would get around $50 back. There is always the place option as well. Not bad for those 4!

I got 60-1 with the odds boost Wadda ... worth a small outlay as they are top-notch horses with good chances to win.  I've got all 4 in either a win only bet or as a leading trifecta chance - and that was before any of the 4 were put forward as best bets here. 

Win or lose we'll at least get a run for our money class-wise.  That might be the theme here during the Spring too - the good horses are back.

Should be a terrific days racing and lets hope we all get some decent collects as well as a win tomorrow for the mighty Demons. 

Good luck to all !

Edited August 18, 2018 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 19,157]

Sorry fellas, received a tip yesterday and forgot to mention it, that’s how a good a tip it must be.

Randwick Race 3 Number 7 Gwenneth @13.15

$12.00

All I got told was to back it. Hmmm....maybe something small each way.....last thing we want is more PL.

[Macca 16,611]

There's a new show on the racing channel that is worth a look - The BetEasy Racing Show featuring Cambo,  Mick Sharkie & Dr Turf.  Saturday mornings at 10.30am

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

I got 60-1 with the odds boost Wadda ... worth a small outlay as they are top-notch horses with good chances to win.  I've got all 4 in either a win only bet or as a leading trifecta chance - and that was before any of the 4 were put forward as best bets here. 

Win or lose we'll at least get a run for our money class-wise.  That might be the theme here during the Spring too - the good horses are back.

Should be a terrific days racing and lets hope we all get some decent collects as well as a win tomorrow for the mighty Demons. 

Good luck to all !

What a pity Macca we couldnt throw Winx in there at 2.00! Good luck!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

10 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

What a pity Macca we couldnt throw Winx in there at 2.00! Good luck!

.....could end up in Vienna!!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I wonder what the Winx Kentamari exacta will pay?.......

Edited August 18, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Dee Zephyr 19,157]

2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I wonder what the Winx Kentamari exacta will pay?.......

The TAB exacta approximate is showing $2.00 at the moment with just under $2500 in the exacta pool. Quinella showing $1.80 with $4500 in that pool.