A Day at the Races

[Diamond_Jim 12,589]

17 hours ago, Demon77 said:

He ran a respectable 6th DJ. First run in 70 days.

Thanks D77

As that accords with our position on the ladder at present how apposite.

Now to get them both to number 1 !

[Macca 16,972]

Here's a replay of yesterday's 2 Group 1 events ... The Tancred Stakes & The Vinery Stud Stakes. 

 

 

 

[Macca 16,972]

Final fields and barriers are up already for the Four Group 1's at Randwick  this coming Saturday ... 'Ace High is $6.50 favourite in the Derby,  Redzel is $2.50 fav for the T J Smith and 'Oohood' is favoured over Seabrook in the Sires Produce (although that may change)

The Doncaster has produced a really good field with Kementari opening as $4.20 favourite over Happy Clapper & D'Argento.  And if you want to give Tosen Stardom another chance you can get 60-1 !  The horse is carrying the same weight as Happy Clapper although both those horses & Humidor are giving a lot of weight away against the rest.  Tom Melbourne is only carrying 52kgs - currently $4.60 for the place.

Here's a replay of last year's T J Smith,  The Doncaster & The Derby ...

 

 

 

 

[Macca 16,972]

I like a few chances this upcoming weekend including 'Enbihaar' (Race 1 Randwick),  'Despatch' (Race 3 Morphettville) and 'Beat the Clock' (Race 7 Sha Tin) but here's my best bet...

French Emotion ($4.20) - Bendigo Race 6  No.2 ... trained by Chris Waller with Brad Rawiller on board.  The horse has drawn a decent gate and should at least get into the finish (paying $1.75 for the place) 

Overall Best Bet Strike Rate

33:  19 - 6 - 1

Australian Group & Listed Races

Footnote:  'Brave Smash' ($8.50) is my each-way bet - running in the T J Smith Stakes the horse has a more than decent finishing burst ... 5 weeks off since the Newmarket should have freshened the horse up nicely. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

I like a few chances this upcoming weekend including 'Enbihaar' (Race 1 Randwick),  'Despatch' (Race 3 Morphettville) and 'Beat the Clock' (Race 7 Sha Tin) but here's my best bet...

French Emotion ($4.20) - Bendigo Race 6  No.2 ... trained by Chris Waller with Brad Rawiller on board.  The horse has drawn a decent gate and should at least get into the finish (paying $1.75 for the place) 

Overall Best Bet Strike Rate

33:  19 - 6 - 1

Australian Group & Listed Races

Footnote:  'Brave Smash' ($8.50) is my each-way bet - running in the T J Smith Stakes the horse has a more than decent finishing burst ... 5 weeks off since the Newmarket should have freshened the horse up nicely. 

I’m almost tempted to make that my Best Macca but must respect the class of Redzel.

I honestly believe ‘Brave Smash’ can win for the reason you pointed out above. 

Like your selections up the top also and might be worth following ‘Lite’N In My Veins’ in the Golden Mile at Bendigo. Horse is in great form and I’ve seen as much as $8.50 fixed.

 

[Macca 16,972]

1 hour ago, Demon77 said:

I’m almost tempted to make that my Best Macca but must respect the class of Redzel.

I honestly believe ‘Brave Smash’ can win for the reason you pointed out above. 

Like your selections up the top also and might be worth following ‘Lite’N In My Veins’ in the Golden Mile at Bendigo. Horse is in great form and I’ve seen as much as $8.50 fixed.

Lite'N In My Veins keeps bobbing up and it keeps running well D77 ... that race is a tough one though with any number of chances.  Good fields in Bendigo,  all things considered. 

Gator liked my best bet 'French Emotion' and Chris Waller who trains it made mention of it this morning on RSN.  It's a good price too. 

Gator also likes Really Swish in race 3 and the Hayes horse 'Pure Scot' in race 8 ... both represent very good value. 

As for the first day of the Championships there's strong support for 'She's So Fine' in race 3,  'Don't Give A Damn' in race 4,  Alward in race 5,  Oohood in the Sires Produce,  Ace High in the Derby and Kementari in the Doncaster - this is after watching both 'Form Line' on the Sky Thoroughbred channel and 'Get On' on the racing channel.

I'll be keeping an eye out for JJ's tips at Morphettville on racing.com but there are a lot of very short-priced favourites in Adelaide this week (apart from races 2,  4,  8 & 9)  Might be some value tips in those 4 races from JJ. 

Edited April 5, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

19 hours ago, Macca said:

Lite'N In My Veins keeps bobbing up and it keeps running well D77 ... that race is a tough one though with any number of chances.  Good fields in Bendigo,  all things considered. 

Gator liked my best bet 'French Emotion' and Chris Waller who trains it made mention of it this morning on RSN.  It's a good price too. 

Gator also likes Really Swish in race 3 and the Hayes horse 'Pure Scot' in race 8 ... both represent very good value. 

As for the first day of the Championships there's strong support for 'She's So Fine' in race 3,  'Don't Give A Damn' in race 4,  Alward in race 5,  Oohood in the Sires Produce,  Ace High in the Derby and Kementari in the Doncaster - this is after watching both 'Form Line' on the Sky Thoroughbred channel and 'Get On' on the racing channel.

I'll be keeping an eye out for JJ's tips at Morphettville on racing.com but there are a lot of very short-priced favourites in Adelaide this week (apart from races 2,  4,  8 & 9)  Might be some value tips in those 4 races from JJ. 

Nice work guys and some very astute observations here. That strike rate is looking fantastic, even Phar Lap would be jealous!

Im going to stick with Ace High. I think he gets back to a dry track and he was just bog ordinary on the bog track last time out. Im going to blame the ground for his average run. Hes way better than that. Hes been set for this race all along and will come bouncing back. The fact that he is favourite for this after his last run says a lot.

If that doesnt work, then Oohood the place surely is my second best bet along with Brave Smash for a place. (in fact make that a multi place bet and roll it into the Dees to beat the trash on the weekend. Chars and good punting.

Edited April 6, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,972]

24 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Nice work guys and some very astute observations here. That strike rate is looking fantastic, even Phar Lap would be jealous!

Im going to stick with Ace High. I think he gets back to a dry track and he was just bog ordinary on the bog track last time out. Im going to blame the ground for his average run. Hes way better than that. Hes been set for this race all along and will come bouncing back. The fact that he is favourite for this after his last run says a lot.

If that doesnt work, then Oohood the place surely is my second best bet along with Brave Smash for a place. (in fact make that a multi place bet and roll it into the Dees to beat the trash on the weekend. Chars and good punting.

Yep ... I like Ace High as well and had already backed it before you made it your best bet Wadda.  It is the class horse of the race and the others have to prove themselves.  As you said,  this is the race that the horse was set for all along.

So that's 2 best bets so far with @binman & @Demon77 to follow ...

• French Emotion - Bendigo  Race 6  No.2 ($3.80)
• Ace High - Randwick  Race 7  No.1 ($5.50)

I like your place card there as well but what about 'Tom Melbourne' at $4.60 for the place?  Carrying only 52kgs it's sure to be flashing home.  In fact,  that race (The Doncaster) could easily result in a blanket-finish. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

40 minutes ago, Macca said:

Yep ... I like Ace High as well and had already backed it before you made it your best bet Wadda.  It is the class horse of the race and the others have to prove themselves.  As you said,  this is the race that the horse was set for all along.

So that's 2 best bets so far with @binman & @Demon77 to follow ...

• French Emotion - Bendigo  Race 6  No.2 ($3.80)
• Ace High - Randwick  Race 7  No.1 ($5.50)

I like your place card there as well but what about 'Tom Melbourne' at $4.60 for the place?  Carrying only 52kgs it's sure to be flashing home.  In fact,  that race (The Doncaster) could easily result in a blanket-finish. 

Well already 20/1 for 2 picks. The combos will be looking good already! If Ace gets the biccies tomorrow you wont ever get 5.50 again except for perhaps the Melbourne Cup.

Ive always followed French Emotion so very well spotted. Tom Melbourne for the place is a good bet as well, but its the Doncaster and they have thrown up blanket finishes in the past. 52kg is a great weight tho.

[Macca 16,972]

7 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Well already 20/1 for 2 picks. The combos will be looking good already! If Ace gets the biccies tomorrow you wont ever get 5.50 again except for perhaps the Melbourne Cup.

Ive always followed French Emotion so very well spotted. Tom Melbourne for the place is a good bet as well, but its the Doncaster and they have thrown up blanket finishes in the past. 52kg is a great weight tho.

There's often a fine line between ultimate glory and being an also-ran Wadda ... Tom consistently gets into the finish - that much we do know.  If the jockey had not have dropped the persuader with 300m to go the horse may well have won it's last start and the story-line could be a lot different.  

It is not like it has started hot favourite and then not run a drum like the 'Tosen' ... speaking of which,  could Tosen Stardom return to form?  Big odds and it often bounces back from a disappointing run. 

I've backed Kementari but I see threats in that race everywhere ... the race should be a beauty.  Eagerly looking forward to it.   

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Best Bet: Randwick 2 No.1 Holy Snow $4.00

Running really well in strong company. Looked the winner last start until Unforgotten came from the clouds to nose it out. Flew home behind Grunt two starts ago at odds. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

There's often a fine line between ultimate glory and being an also-ran Wadda ... Tom consistently gets into the finish - that much we do know.  If the jockey had not have dropped the persuader with 300m to go the horse may well have won it's last start and the story-line could be a lot different.  

It is not like it has started hot favourite and then not run a drum like the 'Tosen' ... speaking of which,  could Tosen Stardom return to form?  Big odds and it often bounces back from a disappointing run. 

I've backed Kementari but I see threats in that race everywhere ... the race should be a beauty.  Eagerly looking forward to it.   

Yep spot on Macca. Id forgotten about the whip drop actually. Tosen has actually a habit of putting in bad runs. Did it last year in the Spring Carnival if you remember between two great wins, just flopped unexpectedly. I would keep safe @ 60/1....even the place!

I had the pleasure of chatting to Nick Hall when i was in Melbourne over Easter. Hes been recovering from surgery, but hopes to get back in the saddle soon. We talked a bit about the racing game, but they never give away much and are always pretty careful with what they say. Really nice guy tho, and i wished him a speedy recovery.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Just now, Demon77 said:

Best Bet: Randwick 2 No.1 Holy Snow $4.00

Running really well in strong company. Looked the winner last start until Unforgotten came from the clouds to nose it out. Flew home behind Grunt two starts ago at odds. 

Well thats 80/1 right there with our other 2 bets. We will wait for Binman tomorrow and we will be well over 100s.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

5 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Well thats 80/1 right there with our other 2 bets. We will wait for Binman tomorrow and we will be well over 100s.

Could be a big day tomorrow Wadda, a big price multi and dare I say it......a red and blue hoodoo breaker.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

4 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Could be a big day tomorrow Wadda, a big price multi and dare I say it......a red and blue hoodoo breaker.

Im on our picks at 80.29/1 with Ladbokes using odds booster. I noticed they were shorter odds with Ace around 4.80 and French Emotion was 3.30 and Holy Snow 4.20.

Lets hope for a good day!

[Macca 16,972]

15 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yep spot on Macca. Id forgotten about the whip drop actually. Tosen has actually a habit of putting in bad runs. Did it last year in the Spring Carnival if you remember between two great wins, just flopped unexpectedly. I would keep safe @ 60/1....even the place!

I had the pleasure of chatting to Nick Hall when i was in Melbourne over Easter. Hes been recovering from surgery, but hopes to get back in the saddle soon. We talked a bit about the racing game, but they never give away much and are always pretty careful with what they say. Really nice guy tho, and i wished him a speedy recovery.

I still vividly remember when many jumped off  'Jeune' after Shane Dye declared that it couldn't win the Melbourne Cup.  What a horse was Jeune!

In its next start after winning the Cup it won the CF Orr stakes over 1400m running a scorching time.  

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

34 minutes ago, Macca said:

I still vividly remember when many jumped off  'Jeune' after Shane Dye declared that it couldn't win the Melbourne Cup.  What a horse was Jeune!

In its next start after winning the Cup it won the CF Orr stakes over 1400m running a scorching time.  

Where did you get the 60/1 on Tosen Macca? Its 34/1 at ladbrokes with the boost.

A footnote on Happy Clapper....its come 2nd in the Doncaster last 2 years running

Because i like silly futures bets, i took Ace to win Melbourne and Caulfield Cups, got 273/1.

Edited April 6, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,972]

2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Where did you get the 60/1 on Tosen? Its 34/1 at ladbrokes with the boost.

Tosen's odds have come in big time from Wednesday ... gotta get on early with the decent odds for the good horses.  Brave Smash was $3 for the place yesterday and is now $1.95. 

All those Morphettville hot favourites have shortened appreciably too.  There's definitely a pattern with regards to the odds offered.  Especially in Adelaide. 

[Macca 16,972]

56 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Could be a big day tomorrow Wadda, a big price multi and dare I say it......a red and blue hoodoo breaker.

Yeah I've saved a bit for a place multi D77 ... haven't done it for ages but there's some standouts tomorrow.  Because of the decent fields the odds are better. 

[Macca 16,972]

Late Mail (aka just to complicate things even further)

Ormito in the 5th at Randwick ($10 win $3.30 place) ... from the same source as last time (When it ran in the Adelaide Cup)  It's not a super-strong field and D Weir does train the horse. 

Another one for the place card?

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

9 hours ago, Macca said:

Late Mail (aka just to complicate things even further)

Ormito in the 5th at Randwick ($10 win $3.30 place) ... from the same source as last time (When it ran in the Adelaide Cup)  It's not a super-strong field and D Weir does train the horse. 

Another one for the place card?

Thanks Macca, nice one. That tip came off last time didnt it? Or 1 did........

Great minds..... i did a place card last night on 4 horses, Tosen Stardom, Holy Snow ,Ace High & Brave Smash 513/1.....not bad.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Oh and the Dees are on today as well i just realized. Gonna be one hell of a day at the office.....think i need another tele.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Macca....are the tips for Adelaide today on the Racing.com website from our Guru?

[Macca 16,972]

9 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Macca....are the tips for Adelaide today on the Racing.com website from our Guru?

No ... not there Wadda.

I'm keeping an eye out for them. 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I notice Gallic Chieftain is going around in the 1st at Bendigo.......has the blinkers back on first time since last year, might sharpen him up...