A Day at the Races

[binman 42,972]

14 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Nice pick Binman, it got smashed late in the betting.

Yep. My mate puts our bets on. Hopefully we got best fluc as it came in from 14s

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Bad luck on Deploy. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

50 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Bad luck on Deploy. 

It looked like something happened to Deploy the way it stopped. Finished a bad last.

Cliff's Edge was very game sitting 3 wide the whole trip and only tiring the last 50m after kicking away early in the straight.

[Macca 16,972]

1 hour ago, Demon77 said:

It looked like something happened to Deploy the way it stopped. Finished a bad last.

Cliff's Edge was very game sitting 3 wide the whole trip and only tiring the last 50m after kicking away early in the straight.

2 from 4 today D77 ... it was on the cards that we'd miss 2 out of the 4. 

Overall - 8 from 11 with two 2nds so we're not far off. 

If Cliff's Edge had have held on I was winning plenty.  Same for Redzel.  Like a few others I was uneasy re Redzel but it took a great run from Redkirk Warrior to beat it. 

As for the other feature race (The Apollo Stakes) I had Addictive Nature going in a small multi but it was very good win by Endless Drama - too good.  The first 4 across the line are worth keeping an eye on. 

[Macca 16,972]

Here's a replay of the Lightning Stakes (2018) ...

 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

3 minutes ago, Macca said:

2 from 4 today D77 ... it was on the cards that we'd miss 2 out of the 4. 

Overall - 8 from 11 with two 2nds so we're not far off. 

If Cliff's Edge had have held on I was winning plenty.  Same for Redzel.  Like a few others I was uneasy re Redzel but it took a great run from Redkirk Warrior to beat it. 

As for the other feature race (The Apollo Stakes) I had Addictive Nature going in a small multi but it was very good win by Endless Drama - too good.  The first 4 across the line are worth keeping an eye on. 

Today I played the 4 combos x3. Lol, of course we'd get two. Can't complain though, Santos made me a small profit. 

Maybe with a slightly easier run Cliff's Edge wins.

In the Apollo I had Global Glamour to win straight out, she ran well considering she put a quick pace on up front. 

Redkirk Warrior is a specialist first-up horse down the straight but I couldn't see Redzel losing. It flew home.

[Macca 16,972]

11 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Today I played the 4 combos x3. Lol, of course we'd get two. Can't complain though, Santos made me a small profit. 

Maybe with a slightly easier run Cliff's Edge wins.

In the Apollo I had Global Glamour to win straight out, she ran well considering she put a quick pace on up front. 

Redkirk Warrior is a specialist first-up horse down the straight but I couldn't see Redzel losing. It flew home.

After today I'm getting close to working out my strategy.  At worst I'll need 2 of the 4 to win coupled up with another winner from elsewhere (in a few 3 pick multi's)

I used Redzel and Addictive Nature today but both dipped out.  Of course if Cliff's Edge hangs on then like you,  I would have got the treble at 30-1 or thereabouts. 

Close,  but no cigar. 

Bus as previously stated,  we're not far away (and the treble did salute in weeks 1 & 2 of the best bet system)

Edited February 17, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

19 hours ago, Macca said:

Here's a replay of the Lightning Stakes (2018) ...

 

Thanks Macca, 1st race ive seen from yesterday, i was on Redzel as well, but there wasa word around for Redkirk earlier in the afternoon.......still dont see how it beat it? Came from nowhere wasnt even in the call till the last 20m. Tough day.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

19 hours ago, Macca said:

2 from 4 today D77 ... it was on the cards that we'd miss 2 out of the 4. 

Overall - 8 from 11 with two 2nds so we're not far off. 

If Cliff's Edge had have held on I was winning plenty.  Same for Redzel.  Like a few others I was uneasy re Redzel but it took a great run from Redkirk Warrior to beat it. 

As for the other feature race (The Apollo Stakes) I had Addictive Nature going in a small multi but it was very good win by Endless Drama - too good.  The first 4 across the line are worth keeping an eye on. 

That is actually very very good.

[Macca 16,972]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

That is actually very very good.

It's just a matter of working out how it can all work for us Wadda ... I've just about figured out how to go about it but each to their own I say.  We have all got something to work with at least. 

As previously stated,  if Cliff's Edge & Redzel both win I would have won in the mid 3 figures range.  But there's a lot of if's & but's when punting. 

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Thanks Macca, 1st race ive seen from yesterday, i was on Redzel as well, but there wasa word around for Redkirk earlier in the afternoon.......still dont see how it beat it? Came from nowhere wasn't even in the call till the last 20m. Tough day.

Win, lose or otherwise I'm going to try and post up the replays of the Group 1's.  As much as we all want to win I'm always happy to acknowledge the winners even if I wasn't on them. 

Throughout the decades the Hayes clan have always had a habit of getting the big win with a good each-way shot (and they did it again with 'Redkirk Warrior')

Anyway,  I saved a bit for Sha Tin and there is a big feature race on later that I've had a small trifecta on.

Sha Tin Race 9  The Hong Kong Classic Cup 1800m 4yo's only  $1.7Million AUD (7.40pm)

Edited February 18, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

4 hours ago, Macca said:

It's just a matter of working out how it can all work for us Wadda ... I've just about figured out how to go about it but each to their own I say.  We have all got something to work with at least. 

As previously stated,  if Cliff's Edge & Redzel both win I would have won in the mid 3 figures range.  But there's a lot of if's & but's when punting. 

Win, lose or otherwise I'm going to try and post up the replays of the Group 1's.  As much as we all want to win I'm always happy to acknowledge the winners even if I wasn't on them. 

Throughout the decades the Hayes clan have always had a habit of getting the big win with a good each-way shot (and they did it again with 'Redkirk Warrior')

Anyway,  I saved a bit for Sha Tin and there is a big feature race on later that I've had a small trifecta on.

Sha Tin Race 9  The Hong Kong Classic Cup 1800m 4yo's only  $1.7Million AUD (7.40pm)

Are you taking the short favourite to win one out?? He aint done a lot wrong, 6 wins from 7 starts and a 2nd. What other picks?? 6. Morethanlucky is in a good patch of form and is 26/1.

Yeah pity about Cliffs Edge, dont think the horse did a lot wrong.

Edited February 18, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,972]

15 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Are you taking the short favourite to win one out?? He aint done a lot wrong, 6 wins from 7 starts and a 2nd. What other picks?? 6. Morethanlucky is in a good patch of form and is 26/1.

Yeah pity about Cliffs Edge, dont think the horse did a lot wrong.

I marked the short priced favourite on top as well as 'Morethanlucky' - either of those 2 to win although the 6 seems overs at those odds - fingers crossed

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

5 minutes ago, Macca said:

I marked the short priced favourite on top as well as 'Morethanlucky' - either of those 2 to win although the 6 seems overs at those odds - fingers crossed

 

Does seem overs....Im on the 1 one out and the 2,6 to come second, field for 3rd. Is it on anywhere? apart from radio?? Singapore Sling just got out to 10/1

Edited February 18, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Strange ride on the favourite?? Joey??

A friend of mines husband is part owner in Wicklow Brave. They had Moirera on him in last years cup. It was a pretty bad ride by all accounts, although the horse finished off ok. They said he was so in love with himself, he would even really talk to them.

[Macca 16,972]

55 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Does seem overs....Im on the 1 one out and the 2,6 to come second, field for 3rd. Is it on anywhere? apart from radio?? Singapore Sling just got out to 10/1

I could do with a Singapore Sling right now after that effort Wadda!  What was the jockey thinking on NothingILikeMore?

I had 4 of the first 5 but not the winner obviously.   I've got cable so the race was on Sky Thoroughbred Central.  Racing.com sometimes covers the races from HK but not tonight.

Anyway,  you win some you lose some and there's always next week - which sees 3 Group 1's at Caulfield ...

Australian Group & Listed Races

Edited February 18, 2018 by Macca

[Macca 16,972]

Here are those 3 Group 1's from this time last year (Oakleigh Plate,  Futurity Stakes & Blue Diamond Stakes)

Link - The 2017 Oakleigh Plate

 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

40 minutes ago, Macca said:

Here are those 3 Group 1's from this time last year (Oakleigh Plate,  Futurity Stakes & Blue Diamond Stakes)

Link - The 2017 Oakleigh Plate

 

 

Wow look at the difference on the turn between the 2yo race and the group 1. The 2yo are so spread out ! Just compare the 2 still shots above.

Dont see how Tosen Stardom lost that really? Just got nailed on the line. Funny how you never remember the 2nd horse.

Nice research there Macca, thanks for posting. Bit of a swoopers track that day.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,972]

7 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Wow look at the difference on the turn between the 2yo race and the group 1. The 2yo are so spread out ! Just compare the 2 still shots above.

Dont see how Tosen Stardom lost that really? Just got nailed on the line. Funny how you never remember the 2nd horse.

Nice research there Macca, thanks for posting.

In the early betting Hartnell & Black Heart Bart aren't listed for the Futurity so it could be presumed both aren't running.   Tosen Stardom is now into 5.50 after being 11.00 yesterday.   Needs a decent barrier this time though (It drew the wide barrier in the C F Orr Stakes)

A horse to look out for in the Blue Diamond (if it starts) is the Hayes trained 'Nomothaj' at big odds - it won the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes back in November beating 'Sunlight' into 3rd.  It did run poorly in MM 2yo Classic but it might feature.  It's possibly going to be my 'Best Outsider'

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

53 minutes ago, Macca said:

In the early betting Hartnell & Black Heart Bart aren't listed for the Futurity so it could be presumed both aren't running.   Tosen Stardom is now into 5.50 after being 11.00 yesterday.   Needs a decent barrier this time though (It drew the wide barrier in the C F Orr Stakes)

A horse to look out for in the Blue Diamond (if it starts) is the Hayes trained 'Nomothaj' at big odds - it won the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes back in November beating 'Sunlight' into 3rd.  It did run poorly in MM 2yo Classic but it might feature.  It's possibly going to be my 'Best Outsider'

Really? Why the big move i wonder? I still think its not his ideal distance 1400. Never won at the trip so far i dont think although a number of placings. Having now viewed the run from last year, you kinda have to have something on it. When is the barrier draw..Wed?

Edited February 19, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,972]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Really? Why the big move i wonder? I still think its not his ideal distance 1400. Never won at the trip so far i dont think although a number of placings. Having now viewed the run from last year, you kinda have to have something on it. When is the barrier draw..Wed?

Regardless, it is a tough race to find a standout horse Wadda ... trifecta for me at this stage.  The Orr Stakes form isn't a great guide either.

I always like to give a horse a 2nd chance so will probably include 'Dollar for Dollar'. 

Lord Of The Sky & Brave Smash should feature whilst Tosen Stardom will probably be thereabouts.  And then there is Humidor & also Mighty Boss to consider.

Barrier draw Wednesday I believe (and final fields)  Last week all the fixed odds and form for the  major race meetings were up on the Wednesday evening (racenet.com)

Edited February 19, 2018 by Macca

[DaveyDee 421]

On 2/18/2018 at 7:42 PM, Wadda We Sing said:

....Im on the 1 one out and the 2,6 to come second, field for 3rd. 

2

If you are backing all combinations at level stakes you will find it hard/impossible over the long-term to turn a profit. 

Now I'm assuming 2 & 6 were not the same price and your selection for 3rd "the field" all cant be the same price.

[Macca 16,972]

On 02/17/2018 at 6:49 PM, Demon77 said:

Redkirk Warrior is a specialist first-up horse down the straight but I couldn't see Redzel losing. It flew home.

An acquaintance at work joined up at Ladbrokes last week and received a fair wad in bonus bets as a consequence. 

Plonked most of it on Redkirk Warrior and cleaned right up ... however most I know were on Redzel or included it 'one-out' and lost out. 

It will be interesting to see what odds both horses are at their next start (The Newmarket Hcp?)  ... Redkirk Warrior won last year's Newmarket. 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 hours ago, DaveyDee said:

If you are backing all combinations at level stakes you will find it hard/impossible over the long-term to turn a profit. 

Now I'm assuming 2 & 6 were not the same price and your selection for 3rd "the field" all cant be the same price.

It was just a one of bet off the top of my head, after noting Maccas post, and the standout horse had won 6 out of 7 starts at a track in Sha Tin so i threw him in for first. Its not how i bet over the long term, but cheers for the input DD.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

An acquaintance at work joined up at Ladbrokes last week and received a fair wad in bonus bets as a consequence. 

Plonked most of it on Redkirk Warrior and cleaned right up ... however most I know were on Redzel or included it 'one-out' and lost out. 

It will be interesting to see what odds both horses are at their next start (The Newmarket Hcp?)  ... Redkirk Warrior won last year's Newmarket. 

Redkirk Warrior is currently $8.00 for the Newmarket. Equal favourites are Merchant Navy and Redzel (Doubtful) at $5.50.

Nice pick by your work colleague. Some of these betting agencies make you turn over the winnings from bonus bets prior to withdrawal which is a pain in the backside.

 

 

[DaveyDee 421]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

It was just a one of bet off the top of my head, after noting Maccas post, and the standout horse had won 6 out of 7 starts at a track in Sha Tin so i threw him in for first. Its not how i bet over the long term, but cheers for the input DD.

Cheers Didn't see Maccas input. All the best hope you make a tidy profit, tough game and it is not an easy business.