A Day at the Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

18 minutes ago, Macca said:

And with @binman entering in with a best bet that will give us for 4 best bets ... I anticipated that happening so there's an option of four 3 pick multi's within the 4 pick multi.  Much like the 3 doubles within the 3 pick multi.  Again,  it's totally optional as is the compulsion to take out a multi at all. 

The theory behind the concept is that if you look at enough of the different races properly,  one horse will eventually jump out at you (figuratively speaking of course!) The combined input is a way of combining all our standout best bets. 

And because we're posting up a tip that others can benefit from,  you'll probably work harder at finding that one best bet.  You don't want to miss with a pick.

Thats exactly the way i see it Macca. There is also the 4th option of course, of picking all 4 horses in a multi! I think there is a way to do it, albiet you pay double, where 1 horse can miss and you still get a colllect although i dont think the math works out that well.

Ive won over 1000 with 20 dollars on a 3 horse multi. The math on that means if you did 20 each week, you could go for a year before you would actually start losing.

I think its really good to expore different betting options, as in last week where id completely forgotten about an option.

[Macca 17,066]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Thats exactly the way i see it Macca. There is also the 4th option of course, of picking all 4 horses in a multi! I think there is a way to do it, albiet you pay double, where 1 horse can miss and you still get a collect although i dont think the math works out that well.

Ive won over 1000 with 20 dollars on a 3 horse multi. The math on that means if you did 20 each week, you could go for a year before you would actually start losing.

I think its really good to explore different betting options, as in last week where id completely forgotten about an option.

I was including the 4 pick multi Wadda much as I would a 5 pick multi if we get another joining in.  Of course, it gets complicated then but my attitude is the more, the merrier and we should be able to sort it all out as individuals. 

The important thing is getting the best bets posted up ... we'll know a lot of thought has gone into the picks and also,  much as what happened last week and this week already,  we may well be able to see the same value in a best bet posted by someone else (on closer inspection) 

Take your Gailo Chop pick as an example ... I hadn't looked at that race yet as I had it marked as a trifecta race which I was going to look at on Friday night or Saturday morning.  So I then looked at the race closely and then saw what you could see.  Affirmation.

And seeing we're on a new page ... Australian Group & Listed Races

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

24 minutes ago, Macca said:

I was including the 4 pick multi Wadda much as I would a 5 pick multi if we get another joining in.  Of course, it gets complicated then but my attitude is the more, the merrier and we should be able to sort it all out as individuals. 

The important thing is getting the best bets posted up ... we'll know a lot of thought has gone into the picks and also,  much as what happened last week and this week already,  we may well be able to see the same value in a best bet posted by someone else (on closer inspection) 

Take your Gailo Chop pick as an example ... I hadn't looked at that race yet as I had it marked as a trifecta race which I was going to look at on Friday night or Saturday morning.  So I then looked at the race closely and then saw what you could see.  Affirmation.

And seeing we're on a new page ... Australian Group & Listed Races

Oh ok so you did include that, sorry. We will have a pick 10 by the end of the carnival! Yeah its great people are putting the time and the effort in, and your right, you dont want your pick to screw up! haha. We must be shrewd at least !

I was on Galio a bit in the Spring, so it jumped out at me. But as you say have a look at the form in that race and for me thats a standout.

Weve got the Ballarat Beat Rockabilly Festival on here this weekend, so ill be busy out and about with that. Will jump on early Sat morn.

Pity we cant pin that race guide to the top of every page.

[Macca 17,066]

27 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Oh ok so you did include that, sorry. We will have a pick 10 by the end of the carnival! Yeah its great people are putting the time and the effort in, and your right, you dont want your pick to screw up! haha. We must be shrewd at least !

I was on Galio a bit in the Spring, so it jumped out at me. But as you say have a look at the form in that race and for me thats a standout.

Weve got the Ballarat Beat Rockabilly Festival on here this weekend, so ill be busy out and about with that. Will jump on early Sat morn.

Pity we cant pin that race guide to the top of every page.

I should be able to remember to copy & paste it up Wadda ... that will come with routine.  For instance, I start perusing the form online on a Wednesday night (using racenet.com mainly) and then will have something picked out by Friday at the latest. 

And as for others joining in ... I'm interested to see where the thread takes us - I've always encouraged an inclusive attitude rather than exclusive one.  Punters can often prefer to fly solo but again,  I've always favoured a joint input - mainly because I'm prone to missing stuff and I'm not smart enough to see everything anyway (plus, there's the available time aspect) 

Edited February 8, 2018 by Macca

[Dee Zephyr 19,269]

I was browsing the form for the following race and noticed that each horse has drawn the same barrier as their saddlecloth. I don't recall ever seeing that with a random barrier draw.

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/caulfield-20180210/schweppes-rubiton-stakes-race-6

Tricky race, does anyone think Rich Charm is a bit over the odds?

Edited February 8, 2018 by Demon77

[Macca 17,066]

22 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

I was browsing the form for the following race and noticed that each horse has drawn the same barrier as their saddlecloth. I don't recall ever seeing that with a random barrier draw.

https://www.racenet.com.au/racing-form-guide/caulfield-20180210/schweppes-rubiton-stakes-race-6

Tricky race, does anyone think Rich Charm is a bit over the odds?

Well yeah ... there's a fair bit of depth in the race and that may be the reason.  Rich Charm's last run was as good as it gets in terms of the time run and the fact that it was in a Group 2 race (and it beat Missrock) 

And, it's got a very good strike rate ... it is up a few kilos from its previous 3 runs but before that won over 1200m carrying 59 & 60.5kgs. 

I was in the same quandary with Goodfella and at one stage was going to nominate Goodfella as my best bet - for the place only though.  But I baulked at doing that as 1 scratching would have meant no 3rd dividend.

[Dee Zephyr 19,269]

My "Best" comes from Warwick Farm Race 8 No.4 - Show A Star.($2.60 Win)

First look at the track but his last run (win) was very good. Pushed hard from a wide barrier to lead the field up, kicked away on turning and fought off a few late swoopers. Big drop in the weights from last start will see him carry 53.5kg.

There are one or two in the field with early speed so it will be interesting to see if Tim Clark goes for the lead or if he'll be happy to take a sit just off the leaders. 

Currently it's only a 7 horse field, the $1.60 for the place might appeal to some that fancy the horse for a top 2 finish.

Happy Punting!

Edited February 8, 2018 by Demon77

[Macca 17,066]

7 hours ago, Demon77 said:

My "Best" comes from Warwick Farm Race 8 No.4 - Show A Star.($2.60 Win)

First look at the track but his last run (win) was very good. Pushed hard from a wide barrier to lead the field up, kicked away on turning and fought off a few late swoopers. Big drop in the weights from last start will see him carry 53.5kg.

There are one or two in the field with early speed so it will be interesting to see if Tim Clark goes for the lead or if he'll be happy to take a sit just off the leaders. 

Currently it's only a 7 horse field, the $1.60 for the place might appeal to some that fancy the horse for a top 2 finish.

Happy Punting!

'Show A Star' was the first horse I had picked out as my best bet D77! ... then superceded by 'Egyptian Symbol' but only just. 

I also had 'Nature Strip' picked out but was concerned about the hot favourite 'She Will Reign' ... in the end Nature Strip was scratched so my mind was made up.

[Dee Zephyr 19,269]

2 minutes ago, Macca said:

'Show A Star' was the first horse I had picked out as my best bet D77! ... then superceded by 'Egyptian Symbol' but only just. 

I also had 'Nature Strip' picked out but was concerned about the hot favourite 'She Will Reign' ... in the end Nature Strip was scratched so my mind was made up.

I believe the horse above has a promising future. It's definitely a talented galloper and I'm sure it will be someone's "Best" very soon.

It was scratched due to a virus or some kind of blood infection. Hopefully it's not too serious and we'll see if it can return after its short break. 

In regards to Show A Star, I thought the 1 and the 2 were the obvious dangers but the weight difference was the determining factor towards Show A Star. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Demon77 said:

I believe the horse above has a promising future. It's definitely a talented galloper and I'm sure it will be someone's "Best" very soon.

It was scratched due to a virus or some kind of blood infection. Hopefully it's not too serious and we'll see if it can return after its short break. 

In regards to Show A Star, I thought the 1 and the 2 were the obvious dangers but the weight difference was the determining factor towards Show A Star. 

I was also tossing up between Show a Star and Gailo Chop. So i concur with your best bet  D77. Well spotted.

Ok so that leaves us with Egyptian Symbol, Show a Star and Gailo Chop.  Multi them up now and you get 19.27/1

Oh yeah, and ive never seen a race where the saddlecloth and barriers are the same D77? The odds against that would be astronomical. Maybe they finish the race in the same order?

Edited February 8, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Dee Zephyr 19,269]

10 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I was also tossing up between Show a Star and Gailo Chop. So i concur with your best bet  D77. Well spotted.

Ok so that leaves us with Egyptian Symbol, Show a Star and Gailo Chop.  Multi them up now and you get 19.27/1

Oh yeah, and ive never seen a race where the saddlecloth and barriers are the same D77? The odds against that would be astronomical. Maybe they finish the race in the same order?

Now that you mentioned it, i must place a tri and first four straight out in numerical order. It goes with the theme of this race.

Juicy odds again for the best bets combined and another selection could be added with Binman declaring his "Best".

 

 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

56 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Now that you mentioned it, i must place a tri and first four straight out in numerical order. It goes with the theme of this race.

Juicy odds again for the best bets combined and another selection could be added with Binman declaring his "Best".

 

 

 

Ive gone a bit early, as i may be busy tomorrow....I put our 3 selections in with AFLW Demons....couldnt help myself!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Black Heart Bart scratched.

[Dee Zephyr 19,269]

So.... a fella at work gave me his 3 "Best Bets" at the Valley tonight. 

I quickly rushed to put the multi on at $24.

Leg 1 - Race 3 No.1-Despatch. Result-Scratched at barrier.

Leg 2 - Race 5 No.9- Oscietra. Result- Scratched at barrier.

Unbeliavable!!

What are the odds for the same to happen in leg 3? 

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

14 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

So.... a fella at work gave me his 3 "Best Bets" at the Valley tonight. 

I quickly rushed to put the multi on at $24.

Leg 1 - Race 3 No.1-Despatch. Result-Scratched at barrier.

Leg 2 - Race 5 No.9- Oscietra. Result- Scratched at barrier.

Unbeliavable!!

What are the odds for the same to happen in leg 3? 

 

Would be very long odds to do that 3 times in a row.......lets hope he salutes!

Question without notice....Is Egyptian Symbol any relation to Egyptian Ruler?

[Macca 17,066]

3 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Black Heart Bart scratched.

Saved for the Futurity Stakes in 2 weeks time?  Also over the 1400m ... which seems to be the ideal distance for the horse. 

The race (The C F Orr Stakes) is a good betting race all the same ... a number of the fancied horses have drawn out wide which makes the race even more competitive. 

I've at least narrowed it down to 6 horses now but finding 2 or 3 clear-cut winning chances (for a multiple trifecta) out of those 6 is proving difficult. 

I can see a couple of decent dividends coming up though (Tri & First 4)

[Dee Zephyr 19,269]

30 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Would be very long odds to do that 3 times in a row.......lets hope he salutes!

Question without notice....Is Egyptian Symbol any relation to Egyptian Ruler?

Lol, any win is a good win, the last leg is Race 8 No.9 - True Excelsior. $2.80 was its fixed price in the multi. 

Not sure about your question, I might have to look it up.

[Macca 17,066]

Apart from our 3 best bets so far (Gailo Chop,  Egyptian Symbol & Show A Star) we've also made mention of 3 other horses that we fancy to feature ...

Caulfield Race 5  No. 6   Smart Coupe $8  (Wadda)

Caulfield Race 6  No. 1   Rich Charm  $8  (Demon77)

Warwick Farm Race 6 No.2   Goodfella $9  (Macca)

That's not a bad 'Spec' multi  ... 575-1

All 3 have decent form and are realistic chances.

Anyway,  here's another look at last year's C F Orr Stakes ...

 

Edited February 9, 2018 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 hours ago, Macca said:

Apart from our 3 best bets so far (Gailo Chop,  Egyptian Symbol & Show A Star) we've also made mention of 3 other horses that we fancy to feature ...

Caulfield Race 5  No. 6   Smart Coupe $8  (Wadda)

Caulfield Race 6  No. 1   Rich Charm  $8  (Demon77)

Warwick Farm Race 6 No.2   Goodfella $9  (Macca)

That's not a bad 'Spec' multi  ... 575-1

All 3 have decent form and are realistic chances.

Anyway,  here's another look at last year's C F Orr Stakes ...

 

Quinella paid alright! Its a tough race alright. I think ive had the most difficulty picking winners at 1400. It that weird distance between a sprint and a staying race. Kinda both really.

Im liking that spec multi. Some chances there for sure. The minimum return on that for your 5 dollar minimum outlay is close to 3k. Now were talking.

Edited February 9, 2018 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 17,066]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Quinella paid alright! Its a tough race alright. I think ive had the most difficulty picking winners at 1400. It that weird distance between a sprint and a staying race. Kinda both really.

Im liking that spec multi. Some chances there for sure.

I like the 1400m races Wadda because of the previous times made by the various horses and the comparisons that I can therefore make.  I also look for horses that have previously finished off their 1200m races well too - as well as those that race well but falter a bit towards the end of their 1600m races.  And then there's the weights carried. 

The Classic mile is probably my favourite though ... but the form always makes a lot more sense if the race in question is WFA or at set weights. 

The classic distance (2000m) appeals for all sorts of reasons though.  Group 1 at WFA is the pinnacle at that distance.  Ditto for the mile and a half. 

The sprint races and the form attached to those races is often easier to identify (1000m,  1100m & 1200m) but I prefer the smaller fields in those races (unless the sprint racing is held on the straight at Flemington)

 

[Dee Zephyr 19,269]

Show A Star into $2.00 after the scratchings. Only 5 running.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

20 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Show A Star into $2.00 after the scratchings. Only 5 running.

Pays to get on early doesnt it. I have it at 2.60.

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Also i like Silent Sedition in the last @Caulfield. Had a bit of an average campaign last Spring, but form prior to that was outstanding. If it gets anywhere near its best, should win this. Williams back on board as well. currently 3.10. Throw it into the mix.

[binman 44,036]

My tips and betting strategy for the day is as follows (with best bets bolded).

Caulfield

Race 1  no 1 Goldstream  win
Race 2  no 9 Pure elation  win
Race 3  no 7 Seberate and no 9 Ben Hucules both  win
Race 4  no 1 Gailo Chop  win
Race 5  no  1 Shoals win and  place no 6 Smart coupe
Race 6  no  2 Super Cash win
Race 7  no 10 Scarecrow  and box trif 1,2, 10 
Race 8  no 10 Tshahitsi  and 1 units win & place on no 5 Lord  of the Sky
Race 9  no 8 Fragonard win and saver on no 12 Barchetta 

JC Mark Zahra

Warwick Farm

Race 1 no 1 Satin Slipper 
Race 3  trifecta in order 3,7,5 for 1 unit
Race 4  no 7 O’lordy win
Race 5 no  1 Sanctimonius win
Race 6  no 1 Single bullet place
Race 7  no 4 Bonny Reilly win and quin 2 and 4
Race 9  no 6 Echo effect win

JC Blake Shinn 

Morphettville
Race 5 no  1 Itz Invincible win
 

good luck punters!
 

[binman 44,036]

Some comments about today.

I reckon Tosen Stardom i way unders. I think the track will favour front runners as it will be bone dry and leaderish and like last last year will come home but too late. Inside draw no help. Very disappointed Black heart Bart is out as i had him on top and great value. I also think Silent Sedition is too short.