Interesting article in The Age today: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/the-contest-is-up-20130506-2j3p2.html. Michael Gleeson looks at the figures for contested possession differential and clearance differential.

He notes that only two top 8 clubs are in the top 8 for clearance differential (Fremantle and Carlton).

Rather unsurprisingly, Melbourne is 18th in both categories. However, more surprisingly, Geelong is 17th in clearance differential, Collingwood is 16th, Essendon is 14th. Meanwhile, GWS is 4th, the Bulldogs are 3rd. For contested possession differential, Geelong is 14th, Fremantle is 15th, whilst Gold Cost is 4th and the Bulldogs are 5th.

We all also know that we were leading in both these categories at half time on Sunday but were losing the match.

Anyway, I'm not sure I'm drawing many conclusions from this, I just found it interesting.

It's really interesting t-u. As the article goes on to mention, unbroken chains of possession from the back half, and ability to force turnovers, defend them and capitalise on them, particularly in the front half, are all important.

The game against Carlton was interesting in this respect. I noticed that we were ahead in clearances at halftime, but were getting out possessed and out scored. Of Carlton's first 9 goals, 7 came from our turnovers.....we were gifting them possession.

I think our clearance stats reflected well the fact that we were more consistently competitive at the stoppages, and the contested possessions that we were more attentive to pressuring them, but our skills and decision making are sub-par.

Taking a positive spin, I think games experience and time spent knowing your teammates game are immeasurable components to this, and we have a paucity of that, so things should improve if we get a consistent playing group, and games into the juniors/inexperienced.

Where the stats really tell for us, is the combined effect of low possessions and poor disposal efficiency (as compared to the opposition). We need more of it, and to use it better........SIMPLE!!!

It must be the day for hate.......I hate all these stats and analytical BS.......What happened to the days of....Get the ball and kick it through the goals.....If you kick more than the opposition.....You win.....Gee it's a simple game after all....

Edited May 7, 201312 yr by Bossdog

So stats are useless and worthy of hate? WOW!!!

Must indeed be a day for hate, cos I HATE dismissing analysis based on the idea that things are simple just cos you want them to be. That could be called ignorant, impatient and juvenile.

I actually think the uncontested disposals stat is the most important for us. IMO it reflects our positioning and the effectiveness of the zone as we always seem miles from our opponent and allow them to set up play very easily.

We are ranked 18th in uncontested possessions differential.. We are also ranked 18th in uncontested disposals.

IMO that stat reflects the failure of Neeld's structures. Either the setup of them or the implementing of them. Bother are his responsibility.

In other opinions it would reflect that a) we have poor skills and cant hit targets, and that b,) we dont run hard enough into space to collect uncontested possessions.

I would like to see the uncontested marks stat, i bet we are getting smashed because we dont run into space for our team mates. I bet we also have high contested marks, not because we are better at this than our opponents, but because we kick to contests, more than other clubs, instead of hardworking leading players more often.

Can someone tell me where we sit for "uncontested possessions against" which is probably a better indication of how effective our zone is rather than "uncontested possession differential", which is probably reflecting the fact that we are last for uncontested possessions. We may still be low, but id be interested to know if we were closer to the median.

Edited May 7, 201312 yr by deanox

I actually think the uncontested disposals stat is the most important for us. IMO it reflects our positioning and the effectiveness of the zone as we always seem miles from our opponent and allow them to set up play very easily.

We are ranked 18th in uncontested possessions differential.. We are also ranked 18th in uncontested disposals.

IMO that stat reflects the failure of Neeld's structures. Either the setup of them or the implementing of them. Bother are his responsibility.

Yep. If Neeld can find a way to work this stat to somewhere near the rest if the comp it will go a long way to making us consistently competitive.

Running hard, running smart, and using the ball better are some things that will help, but not sure we have the midfield to do it.

I actually think the uncontested disposals stat is the most important for us. IMO it reflects our positioning and the effectiveness of the zone as we always seem miles from our opponent and allow them to set up play very easily.

We are ranked 18th in uncontested possessions differential.. We are also ranked 18th in uncontested disposals.

IMO that stat reflects the failure of Neeld's structures. Either the setup of them or the implementing of them. Bother are his responsibility.

You are right about the UP being the most important. They are. Run and spread is the foundation of the game today.

Now we don't do that and while it is on Neeld to foster the confidence in players to run and carry the footy - it would be a tenet in his gameplan. Because it is in everyone's gameplan.

We are not running into space and working hard enough, but it is not by instruction or intention.

The players are just in their shells, and they have retreated there since 2008 - with the occasional trip outside the shell from time to time...

We are not running into space and working hard enough, but it is not by instruction or intention.

I'm not saying the players are being told not to run or spread, they just seem a bit lost and confused when running the zone.

In other opions it would reflect that a) we have poor skills and cant hit targets, and that B) we dont run hard enough into space to collect uncontested possessions.

I would like to see the uncontested marks stat, i bet we are getting smashed because we dont run into space for our team mates. I bet we also have high contested marks, not because we are better at this than our opponents, but because we kick to contests instead of hardworking leads more often.

Can someone tell me where we sit for "uncontested possessions against" which is probably a better indication of how effective our zone is rather than differential, which is a reflection of how bad we are at getting them

We're ranked 18th in uncontested possessions against as well.

Thanks stuie! Doesnt surprise me wheb you see the loose chains we allow, like carlton did when they switched. I wish our guys would run just as hard when we switched the play!

I'm not saying the players are being told not to run or spread, they just seem a bit lost and confused when running the zone.

It's on Neeld. Of that I am not passing the buck, but some are of the opinion that this restricted, slow style of play is instruction or intention and it isn't.

It's on Neeld. Of that I am not passing the buck, but some are of the opinion that this restricted, slow style of play is instruction or intention and it isn't.

Yeah, what I'm saying is it's the implementation not necessarily the instruction. That's why I'm yet to be convinced that Neeld has the communication skills to be a senior coach. Seems a good strategist, and he obviously understands the game, but from the outside it seems he's ineffective at teaching (ironically enough) and communicating in a way that is needed from the top guy.

It's on Neeld. Of that I am not passing the buck, but some are of the opinion that this restricted, slow style of play is instruction or intention and it isn't.

i dont understand , are you saying the slow style of play isnt instructed or intended?

are the players making that style up themselves and if so the fd has got a lot to answer for

IMO that stat reflects the failure of Neeld's structures. Either the setup of them or the implementing of them. Both are his responsibility.

ahhhh no.....A coach cant implement them...only the players can....So Neeld is responsible for the setups but the players are responsible for implementation ( unless Neeld decides to pull on a jumper and become playing coach).. Now you may be right to criticise Neeld for poor structures or structures too complicated or above the players capabilities but bashing him because of implementation is just more Neeld bashing.

So having heard for the last few years that the "most important" stat is contested possessions, are we of the belief that uncontested possessions are now more important? That doesn't sound right to me.

ahhhh no.....A coach cant implement them...only the players can....So Neeld is responsible for the setups but the players are responsible for implementation ( unless Neeld decides to pull on a jumper and become playing coach).. Now you may be right to criticise Neeld for poor structures or structures too complicated or above the players capabilities but bashing him because of implementation is just more Neeld bashing.

Ummmm yes. It is the coaches job to implement structures and game plans isn't it? To teach the players? To identify problems with the players, structures, game plan, and fix them? What else would his job be?

Yeah, what I'm saying is it's the implementation not necessarily the instruction. That's why I'm yet to be convinced that Neeld has the communication skills to be a senior coach. Seems a good strategist, and he obviously understands the game, but from the outside it seems he's ineffective at teaching (ironically enough) and communicating in a way that is needed from the top guy.

not sure it is teaching or communicating ...this run and spread is a confidence/risk taking exercise and I think you can level criticism at Neeld for not instilling the confidence in the players that sees them do these things. ("we do this on the track but it is not translating on game day") I put it some of it back on the players but Neeld must accept some responsibility as well.

So having heard for the last few years that the "most important" stat is contested possessions, are we of the belief that uncontested possessions are now more important? That doesn't sound right to me.

Not saying they're more important, or less, but when combining watching the games and looking at the stats it's clear we look lost out there and we are allowing our opponents lots of link up play because we are in the wrong positions or nowhere near them.

We're just identifying a big weakness with our current way of playing, there are others, and there are some good points too.

In saying that though, we are 18th in contested possession differential as well.

not sure it is teaching or communicating ...this run and spread is a confidence/risk taking exercise and I think you can level criticism at Neeld for not instilling the confidence in the players that sees them do these things. ("we do this on the track but it is not translating on game day") I put it some of it back on the players but Neeld must accept some responsibility as well.

IMO the lack of run and spread is stemming from confusion over the structures/zones.

So having heard for the last few years that the "most important" stat is contested possessions, are we of the belief that uncontested possessions are now more important? That doesn't sound right to me.

its a combination of both...the good teams have confidence that they can send one player to the contest and win the contested ball and you have his mates running and spreading into space to take the uncontested ball and deliver it with precision.

I am not sure what the stat is this year but LY we had an unhealthy percentage of contested to uncontested footy compared with most other teams. This meant we were working hard in the contested situations but had too many doing this and none prepared to back our man to get the hard ball and spread waiting for what we once called the easy ball.

IMO the lack of run and spread is stemming from confusion over the structures/zones.

Maybe so - but that is setup - not implementation - you need to point the finger at the players for implementation. ( when you tell me to dive off a building, you will get blamed for the setup that i didnt do it...i unfortunately get potted for the implementation)

Contested possession stats can be over rated. Every loose bouncing ball nick maxwell picks up 20 m away from an opponent is an contested possession. They are also important in that tgey reflect genuine contested situations like the bottom of packs. Hard ball gets may be a better indicator of this however.

Uncontested possessions may indicate kick to kick in the back line but they include all possessions where your team mate passes to you and you are free. Important stat relating to skill and ability to run and get free.

not sure it is teaching or communicating ...this run and spread is a confidence/risk taking exercise and I think you can level criticism at Neeld for not instilling the confidence in the players that sees them do these things. ("we do this on the track but it is not translating on game day") I put it some of it back on the players but Neeld must accept some responsibility as well.

But if I'm you're diving COACH then I should have taught you how to implement your dive, and if you'd done it unsuccessfully 28 times I probably would have done more to fix it.

Contested possession stats can be over rated. Every loose bouncing ball nick maxwell picks up 20 m away from an opponent is an contested possession. They are also important in that tgey reflect genuine contested situations like the bottom of packs. Hard ball gets may be a better indicator of this however.

Uncontested possessions may indicate kick to kick in the back line but they include all possessions where your team mate passes to you and you are free. Important stat relating to skill and ability to run and get free.

We're ranked 3rd in one percenters differential. So we're giving effort, we're just a bit lost out there.