With a young but so exciting forward line, where will the bulk of our goals come from?

With a young but so exciting forward line, where will the bulk of our goals come from?

Jurrah

Green

Aussie

Bate

Martin

Our best fwd line looks like:

HF Sylvia Miller Bate

F Green Jurrah Woneamirri

Martin, Petterd, Watts and Maric will also feature down there.

This combined with a poor midfied (compared to most other clubs) leads me to believe that we'll struggle to finish higher than 13th. 2011 is when we should start to expect the Dees to finish closer to the top 8.

My goal kicking predictions:

Jurrah - 43 (i'm concerned that he may attract the No 1 defender which could decrease output)

Bate - 29

Miller - 24

Green - 22

Woneamirri - 21

I think we could see Bate become a quality forward this year and kick 45-55 goals.

I think he'll be our most influential forward.

Not convinced Tapscott will kick 30 goals in his first season, particuarly with 2/3rds from outside 50. He's talented, but he's no Q Lynch or Hurn.

Morton will kick more than a few, as a midfielder floating in and occassionally as a genuine inside-50 target

In the 2009 Essendon finished 8th and kicked 313 goals. Carlton finished 7th and kicked 340 goals.

Melbourne kicked 252 goals in 2009. We need to find 300 + goals for the year.

Jurrah - 40 goals (20 in 2009 from 9 games)

Bate - 30 goals (same as 2009)

Watts - 30 goals

Sylvia - 30 goals (17 in 2009)

Green - 20 goals (12 in 2009)

Miller - 20 goals (same as 2009)

Wona - 20 goals

Davey - 20 goals (10 in 2009)

Pettard - 15 goals (kicked 20 goals in 2009)

Scully - 15 goals

Trangove - 15 goals

Maric - 15 goals

Jamar - 10 goals

Johnson - 10 goals

Bruce - 10 goals

Morton - 10 goals

Dunn - 10 goals

Jones - 10 goals

Moloney - 10 goals

Others - 10 goals

If all goes well we should be able to score 350 goals in 2010. This would definitely get us in the finals.

Anyone believe that the goals above are unattainable?

Edited December 18, 200915 yr by bandicoot

Based on 2009 results shown in this table, I would say Jurrah, Bate, Miller, Green, Sylvia, Petterd, Davey, Maric would still be thereabouts for goalkickers in 2010. I'd add Wonaeamirri & Watts to this group with a little emphasis on them playing up forward. Then a sprinkle of contributions form various midfielders (ie. Morton, Tapscott, Trengove, Jones, etc)

Edited December 18, 200915 yr by High Tower

In the 2009 Essendon finished 8th and kicked 313 goals. Carlton finished 7th and kicked 340 goals.

Melbourne kicked 252 goals in 2009. We need to find 300 + goals for the year.

Jurrah - 40 goals (20 in 2009 from 9 games)

Bate - 30 goals (same as 2009)

Watts - 30 goals

Sylvia - 30 goals (17 in 2009)

Green - 20 goals (12 in 2009)

Miller - 20 goals (same as 2009)

Wona - 20 goals

Davey - 20 goals (10 in 2009)

Pettard - 15 goals (kicked 20 goals in 2009)

Scully - 15 goals

Trangove - 15 goals

Maric - 15 goals

Jamar - 10 goals

Johnson - 10 goals

Bruce - 10 goals

Morton - 10 goals

Dunn - 10 goals

Jones - 10 goals

Moloney - 10 goals

Others - 10 goals

If all goes well we should be able to score 350 goals in 2010. This would definitely get us in the finals.

Anyone believe that the goals above are unattainable?

I think most of those are attainable, although I can't understand why people don't expect Bate to kick more goals.

However, the issue is that players will miss games through injury, so realistically, some of those players won't play enough games to meet their targets. We could kick 300 goals, but some of those categories will have to increase (for example, I think others is more likely to be around the 30-40 goals mark rather than 10).

You are correct... Others in 2009 scored app 25 goals.... (exclusing Roberston)

This would give us app 365 goals and potentially finish 6th :-) no harm in wishfull thinking...

You are correct... Others in 2009 scored app 25 goals.... (exclusing Roberston)

This would give us app 365 goals and potentially finish 6th :-) no harm in wishfull thinking...

I'd settle for 320-330 after factoring in injuries. Remember that those estimates include Wona, who didn't play a game last year, which freed up an extra forward position and therefore his goals (or at least some of them) would've been kicked by someone else.

That's just one example of how an injury effects us. On the other hand, someone will step up to kick Robbo's goals.

With a young but so exciting forward line, where will the bulk of our goals come from?

"Scully-to-Watts" is a great start! By which I mean:

(1) MUCH better supply (quantity AND quality) from the midfield - we were by far the AFL's worst at forward-50 entries in 2009. This would surely have to improve in 2010, and dramatically. More goals from the midfield too.

(2) A better-structured and more settled forward set-up - our forward line was different in every game in 2009, every game was another improvisation.

These are of course dependent on each other. This is what needs to happen for more goals to come:

* Sylvia, Jurrah, Bate & Petterd did well in 2009 - 3 of them just have to at least maintain their 2009 form, plus the better supply from midfield.

* We will get more out of our small forwards, whether it be Wona, Maric or Jetta - only one of these 3 has to fire.

* Reasonable forward contributions from new players - Watts, Blease, Tapscott, Trengove.

* Better contribution up forward from "wild cards" such as Morton, Garland or Martin - only one of these has to fire.

* Davey isn't needed so desperately in defensive midfield so he can play further forward where he's more dangerous.

The point is that the extra goals will come from slight to moderate improvement of a number of players. Of the 15 that I've named, it only needs 5 or 6 of them to find good form, we can afford to have half of them struggle for form or get injured. The chances of 12 out of the 15 of them bombing out are tiny. We don't depend on any one player to rip the comp apart, though there's a fair chance of one of them (Jurrah? Sylvia? Morton?) having a stellar season, which will only add to the overall improvement.

If we have a 20% better output we will be pushing for the eight.

Is a 20% improvement likely>?

We can also improve by 15% on each end and we will be close to playing finals footy.

2009 Goals For

252 + 15% = 290

2009 Goals against

332 - 15% = 282

Even though we finished bottom in 2009 we actually improved year on year:

2008 vs 2009 Goals For

234 vs 252 = 10% improvement

2008 vs 2009 Goals Against

376 vs 332 = 12% improvement

With a 290 goals for and a 282 goals against ratio we would have finished 8th or 9th over the past 10 years.

If we improved by 10% and 12% from 2008 to 2009 it is very reasonable to assume that we have the ability to improve by 15% 2009 to 2010.

How about this for an idea? We've got a significantly improved midfield although they're still very raw. We've got a decent defence.

Could we go down the St Kilda path of significantly reducing other team's scoring?

We may not need the goals that some teams kick if our opposition doesn't score many.

I would be surprised/disappointed if Green only kicked 20 the same as Miller. If Miller is in our best 22 then I would expect him to play further up the ground limiting his shots on goal and his range is not great at the best of times. Green is expected to rotate through the forward line so given his level of accuracy he should really kick over 30 goals.

I don't expect Scully & Trengove to kick 30 goals between them but it is centainly not beyond them if they play 15+ games each. Being 1st year players they may be more inclined to hit targets up forward & do the team thing rather than blaze away at goal, which might limit their goal output. Would loved to be proved wrong on this and for them to have the confidence and skill to finish.

Tappscott is probably the best chance of all the recruits to kick us a bag of goals. Looks to have pretty good goal sense and a thumping kick.

I didnt add Tapscott in my claculations so its safe to say that Scully, Trangove and Tapscott are likely to produce 30 goals between them.

I would actually be disappointed if that was not achieved...

50 goals came from our delisted players/traded players in 2009.

But I guess if LJ, Wonna & Watts playing out the full season (most of) that would make up the lost goals.. Bate having the pressure off him would allow him to kick 40+ goals in 2010 :D

Really keen to see how Trengove plays next season, I think he will get the AFL RS award..

We can also improve by 15% on each end and we will be close to playing finals footy.

2009 Goals For

252 + 15% = 290

2009 Goals against

332 - 15% = 282

Even though we finished bottom in 2009 we actually improved year on year:

2008 vs 2009 Goals For

234 vs 252 = 10% improvement

2008 vs 2009 Goals Against

376 vs 332 = 12% improvement

With a 290 goals for and a 282 goals against ratio we would have finished 8th or 9th over the past 10 years.

If we improved by 10% and 12% from 2008 to 2009 it is very reasonable to assume that we have the ability to improve by 15% 2009 to 2010.

I think you're on the ball with that.

It's easy to look at goals only, but we need to improve on both ends.

Realistically, I'd be happy with a 10% improvement on both ends for the next couple of years. That'd mean we'd be challenging for the top four in 2-3 years.

If we improved by 15% at both ends in 2009 we would have beaten:

West Coast

Dogs

Hawthorn

Richmond

We would also have drawn with Sydney - 57 points a side B)

This would have given us 8 wins for the year and 1 draw...

I'm surprised, I thought we would've had a little more success with a 15% increase on both ends.

It shows we've still got a fair way to go.

I just hope our forward line can achieve what our backline did in 2008. Going in to 2008 we didn't really have a backline, just injury prone veterans and untried or inexperienced kids. By the end of 2008 we had the nucleus of a 10 year solid backline. Now I think most here would agree we have potentially the best backline in the league in a few years, or at the least a potential premiership backline.

So regardless of who kicks how many goals, these are the things I'd like to see happen in our forward line by seasons end.

-Matty Bate to start having a big influence on games. I see Matty as a vastly improved version of Miller 04/05(i think). The linkman between defence and attack. Instead of stopping and waiting for someone to run past for the handball, Bate has the speed and confidence to take his opponent on and is a very good kick. His motor has grown these past few years and I think he can match Millers run (which is his strength) but is a massive improvement over Miller in every other department.

-Liam Jurrah coping with the extra attention he is sure to recieve, on and off the field. He has only played 9 games and already he's a media favourite and probably our most damaging forward. It's a lot for a bloke with under 10 games to his credit to deal with. If Liam can get through this year ok his future will be assured.

-Glimpses of what Jack Watts will become. I'd like to think by seasons end Jack will be in our best 22, maybe not as a KPF but somewhere in the 22. If he can produce some of the flashes of real class we saw at VFL level in the AFL next year I'll be happy. Just want enough to reassure the critics amongst us at least, we'll worry about silencing the bay 13 ignorant yobs in 2011.

-Our small forwards becoming more dangerous. Defensive pressure has been good but we need more goals from them as a group. A fit Wonnaemirri would help and Jetta was finding the goals a bit more regularly towards seasons end. Maric needs to show a bit more this year.

If these things can happen we'll have the basis of a functioning forwardline to see us through our long window. Finding another tall would be a bonus. If Martin or Garland proved capable up forward we'd be in very good shape.

With a bolstered midfield we could see the ball delivered much more efficiently and frequently than season past. This will allow more opps on goal for those forwards fit and firing.

Could be the big season for Bate, looked good in parts last year and Is ready for the "Sylvia Leap". Watts could also take some strides forward, thats said of the new batch LJ has the best chance of kicking a bag next year.

We can also improve by 15% on each end and we will be close to playing finals footy.

2009 Goals For

252 + 15% = 290

2009 Goals against

332 - 15% = 282

Even though we finished bottom in 2009 we actually improved year on year:

2008 vs 2009 Goals For

234 vs 252 = 10% improvement

2008 vs 2009 Goals Against

376 vs 332 = 12% improvement

With a 290 goals for and a 282 goals against ratio we would have finished 8th or 9th over the past 10 years.

If we improved by 10% and 12% from 2008 to 2009 it is very reasonable to assume that we have the ability to improve by 15% 2009 to 2010.

So we kicked 252 goals last year. That's about 11 1/2 goals a game. We allowed 332 goals in 2009. That's about 15 goals a game.

Our average losing margin was 26 points.

I don't mind us losing a few games by 40-50 pts next year, as long as we are developing the 19 kids on our list who have played less than 21 games (Grimes, Jurrah, Watts, Bennell Garland Scully, Trengove etc). Geelong had 9 guys from their 1999 and 2001 drafts that played in both premierships. Let's build a team that will be as good as the current Geelong side, in 2013 to 2018.