Longer according to D.Brereton, > 4-5 years.

Despite what some say, Brereton is an astute footy observer. Yes he loves the sound of his own voice, yes he's a Frankston bogan, and yes he'll use 100 words when 10 will do, but he usually shares some pretty good insight. He's wide of the mark with Watts, imo. His article a while back was based on watching one match - Vic Metro V WA on TV, which wasn't Watts best. He stated that Watts had OK agility "but nothing special". Watts is the most agile KPP I've ever seen and his results at DC are testamount to that.

A skinny Nick Riewoldt was no. 1 pick in 2000. He played 6 games in his first year and was very good as a 19 year old in his second, playing all 22 games. Many here are too young to remember a very skinny David Neitz as a junior. Neitz made AA at 20. David Schwarz kicked 60 goals from CHF as a 21 year old. Buddy has just kicked 100 at 21. My point ? I don't expect Watts to be a star in his first couple of years, but I do expect him to have a much greater impact than Whispering Jack and others who are cautiously managing their expectations. Most stars of the game, even tall ones that take longer, are very good players by 20 and elite by the time they reach 21. Watts will bulk up considerably over 2 years, he has the pace, agility, and smarts to create separation, and will be a very good player reasonably quickly. I believe those expecting little for 3-5 years are overly conservative in their assessment.

^^^^^

Agreed

I believe those expecting little for 3-5 years are overly conservative in their assessment.

If you consider that the footy career of a good kp forward is 10 years max., you'd hope to get a better return than 5-7 years of good football from a no. 1 pick.

I agree that the elite kp forwards have made an impact by their 2nd year of football. I'd hope that Watts can do the same.

Despite what some say, Brereton is an astute footy observer. Yes he loves the sound of his own voice, yes he's a Frankston bogan, and yes he'll use 100 words when 10 will do, but he usually shares some pretty good insight. He's wide of the mark with Watts, imo. His article a while back was based on watching one match - Vic Metro V WA on TV, which wasn't Watts best. He stated that Watts had OK agility "but nothing special". Watts is the most agile KPP I've ever seen and his results at DC are testamount to that.

A skinny Nick Riewoldt was no. 1 pick in 2000. He played 6 games in his first year and was very good as a 19 year old in his second, playing all 22 games. Many here are too young to remember a very skinny David Neitz as a junior. Neitz made AA at 20. David Schwarz kicked 60 goals from CHF as a 21 year old. Buddy has just kicked 100 at 21. My point ? I don't expect Watts to be a star in his first couple of years, but I do expect him to have a much greater impact than Whispering Jack and others who are cautiously managing their expectations. Most stars of the game, even tall ones that take longer, are very good players by 20 and elite by the time they reach 21. Watts will bulk up considerably over 2 years, he has the pace, agility, and smarts to create separation, and will be a very good player reasonably quickly. I believe those expecting little for 3-5 years are overly conservative in their assessment.

Fwiw, Brereton's view was 4-5 years to 'really dominate', that's the impression I got from his article. Not 4-5 years 'ready to play'.

This was Buddy's 4th year so he may not be too far off the mark.

Pretty hard to judge a player's development like that though.

Fwiw, Brereton's view was 4-5 years to 'really dominate', that's the impression I got from his article. Not 4-5 years 'ready to play'.

When have I referred to Brereton as saying Watts will take 4-5 years to play ? Bereton only stated that he wouldn't play him in 09. I don't quite agree with that, but I can understand his sentiments.

When have I referred to Brereton as saying Watts will take 4-5 years to play ? Bereton only stated that he wouldn't play him in 09. I don't quite agree with that, but I can understand his sentiments.

My Guess is he will play about the same as maric did this year. Has his VCE to finish and I doubt the club will give him any more then a taste maybe 6 games at the most.

I am a big believer in us picking Jack Watts at No. 1 due to the fact that he will eventually be a star.....

But I have this nagging feeling in my guts that is telling me the club will pick Naitanui at No. 1

I just think that the club can see the whole cult figure thing working in our favour earlier rather than later with Nick.... He will bring bums on seats....

I want Watts..... but if Naita turns out be the next Buddy (aka the man everyone pays money to see) then I can see that side of the argument winning out!!

But I have this nagging feeling in my guts that is telling me the club will pick Naitanui at No. 1

I have it from 2 good sources within the club now that we are fairly set on picking Watts at #1.

I am a big believer in us picking Jack Watts at No. 1 due to the fact that he will eventually be a star.....

But I have this nagging feeling in my guts that is telling me the club will pick Naitanui at No. 1

I just think that the club can see the whole cult figure thing working in our favour earlier rather than later with Nick.... He will bring bums on seats....

I want Watts..... but if Naita turns out be the next Buddy (aka the man everyone pays money to see) then I can see that side of the argument winning out!!

I'll be happy with either, but i think Watts fits our list needs much better.

I feel like taking Naitanui would be resigning ourselves to not being able to compete in the next 2-5 years, but instead 4-7

ie. he's a longer term option, but we still need to inject players into our forward line & this would be delaying it by at least a year (& possibly ending up with only good Forward line players instead a great one)

Edit: Unless we can somehow pick up a Trengove, Johnstone or Schoenmakers, et al. with 17 & 19

We can take Naitanui, but can we keep him?