Lucifers Hero

3 to 5 day lockdown is the tip, from midnight tonight.

Posted this in another thread but probably more relevant here, re why Ess game moved to Qld: AFL spreading the risk across states rather than having 12 teams 'stuck' in Victoria and theu looking forward to who plays who in rounds 19 and 20. In rounds 19 and 20 Ess play GWS and Syd who have also flown to Qld. Then GWS and Syd play SA or WA teams and they are banking on it being easier those games played and teams back to SA and WA respectively. Apparently, Bulldogs preparing for a stint out of Vic. They play Adelaide in round 19 so likely to be in SE Qld. I can see mini hubs forming in SE Qld for most of the teams that flew up today. I wouldn't be surprised if the AFL swap some games around in the latter rounds to enable the season to be finished.

AFL spreading the risk across states rather than having 12 teams 'stuck' in Victoria. And looking forward to who plays who in rounds 19 and 20. In rounds 19 and 20 Ess play GWS and Syd who have also flown to Qld. Then GWS and Syd play SA or WA teams and they are banking on it being easier those games played and teams back to SA and WA respectively. Apparently, Bulldogs preparing for a stint out of Vic. They play Adelaide in round 19 so could possibly be in SE Qld. I can see mini hubs forming in SE Qld for most of the teams that flew up today. I wouldn't be surprised if the AFL swap some games around in the latter rounds to enable the season to be finished.

There has been a pattern of under reporting as much to do with poor systems, especially in regional areas as any deliberate need to cover the true situation. Non-reporting by the 90% drop in cases would seem unlikely to coordiate especially given the fragmented health and governance system in India. As we are no longer seeing the harrowing images and stories (from independent news outlets) of death and cremations one has to think that there has been a genuine improvement.

I don't think he is. I just googled 'Ivermectin in India' and a host of recent articles came up about its use since early May and a range of articles cautioning against its use. It coincides with the dramatic decrease in daily cases. Coincidence?

On a slightly different note. Three months ago in April India had a daily case rate of approx 250,000. The rate peaked at just under 400,000 per day two months ago in May. Since late June it has flat lined at around 40,000 - 50,000 per day. It is still a tragic figure. I have searched for the reasons for such a quick and dramatic improvement. There has been widespread full and partial lockdowns and while vaccines are up, vaccinating about 1 billion people in a matter of weeks doesn't seem likely. Can't imagine covid has peetered out. Perhaps a level of 'herd immunity'? All the above? Does anyone know of any literature/articles that indicate how the turnaround has been achieved?

Glad you found it useful. Makes the work worthwhile. Thanks for picking up the error. I will fix it in the next update (after each round). I just noticed that I have misclassified Freo in the count when they play. Will fix it with next revision.

Many thanks for the tweaks and changes, Andy. I've enjoyed reading the banter this thread has triggered.

Didn't wish to start a new thread so have bumped this. It looks like Demonland software has had some tweaks: symbols and ratings (x/6) for each avatar. And the details for number of posts and number of community 'ticks' no longer appear in posts. Not sure if some 'profiles' in posts have been abbreviated. Is it possible to know meaning of the symbols/ratings and to get post/'ticks' details back? While I'm on this thread, Thanks to all who manage 'Demonland' for a great job.

A summary of the Run Home: After this weekend's upsets good luck trying to predict the ladder order at end of H&A. Never before has the adage that 'any team can win on any given day' been so true. So no team can afford to relax even for what last week seemed to be 'easy' games. Interestingly the Bulldogs play the same 3 of the bottom 5 sides as we do so should be an even run home. Lions also play 2 of those 3 'lower' teams. Observations: I would think the top 6 teams are set but the order is up for grabs. Round 20 will probably decide the minor premiers: Demons or Bulldogs. Sydney is the only team that does not play a top 6 contender and only Freo as a top 8 contender, have a healthy list so could easily jump to 4th. Freo. Virtually playing an elimination final each week. Doubt they will make the 8. Eagles. Well what can one say. Boo stadium is no longer a fortress. Ess, Bulldogs and North have beaten them there this year. And vs North they had their best 22. Would love to see them miss. Saints. Like Freo they are playing an elimination final nearly every week. Their relatively poor % may cost them in the end. GWS. Like Freo and Saints nearly every week will be an elimination final. That draw may come in very handy. Ess: An 'easie'r draw than others and have very good % so a good chance of making the 8. I so desperately hope they don't. Richmond: Oh how the might have fallen. A lot needs to go there way to make it. Each week there are at least four 8-pt games On paper, Ess and Rich have the better chance of making the 8. ??? Unless Richmond make it we are the only finals team with the G as our home ground. If the top 3 stay the same regardless of order we will have at least 2 Home finals at the G. Look at round 23. It will be a doozie and depending how the cards fall will be key to final 8 order, especially if Saints and Freo are still in contention for a finals spot.

Not really, A 21% chance of making finals was a silly call before round 17 was even over. I still think they are a better chance of making finals than nearly all the teams below them because they are either a W ahead, a better % or both. Not to mention the (on paper) difficulty or respective games in the last 6 rounds.

Very true. But giving Eagles a 21% chance of making finals was pretty silly by whoever in the AFL did the ratings.

WCE @ 21% is truly LOL! They are on 8 wins so beat North tonight and they will be a game or two ahead of the other contenders. Including tonight they have 4 more games at Optus and on paper an easier run home than other contenders for 7th and 8th. I'd be putting their odds at 90+%

Thanks for the feedback but the AFL makes me very angry. Ess should be the team going to Darwin, not us. Now more than ever I so desperately hope they do not make the finals. It is so wrong that we get handed two long haul trips in maybe 14 - 15 day period, with a top 2 deciding game vs WBD in the middle. Hopefully we have secured a top two spot by then, or at least a top 4 double chance so it won't matter.

With Scott whinging about 'long' games and wanting them shortened suggests he knows they won't win a flag with an ageing, slowing team. He has also talked about resting players. Says it all about his concern of the chances of their best 22 list playing a long finals campaign. With games vs Freo, Rich, Saints and GWS (contenders for the top 8) and Demons, he won't be able to so readily rest players like he did vs Carlton.

Can't help but think the AFL is trying to help a team make the 8. Not Collingwood but Essendon. Ess have an away game vs GCS in round 22 which is their only game out of Victoria from round 14 to 23. The Tiwi Islands and parts of northern NT are their NGA zone. On that basis alone It should be Ess going to Darwin to play GCS. A good northern NT promotional game. From round 14 we had i/state games in Adelaide, Perth and now Darwin (was Qld). Our NT, NGA region is Alice. From what we know, I just can't see any justification for it being us and not Ess heading to Darwin (unless there is a very significant $ benefit to us). I would have thought being top 2 on the ladder for virtually the whole season would give us some rights to a say in scheduling. Not to be. Hopefully, we are given some rights to the scheduling of subsequent games so our player recovery is not disadvantaged.

While different physically, I reckon Spargo is keeping Melksham out of the team. Has equivalent or better vision, footy IQ, finds time and space and usually hits targets with low, flat kicks that are difficult to intercept. Can be quite handy at scoring. And he has 10 times the defensives of Melksham.

While both teams played off a 5 day break we looked as fresh as a daisy and Port barely gave a yelp. Huge for us to play 4 quarters with 5 days, travel and in enemy territory then convincingly win. While 'just' 4 points, it was an enormous performance in terms of entrenching us in the top 4 and embedding belief in each other and the system.

The shortage in Victoria is because they used their allocation for first doses and didn't keep enough for the second dose. Poor planning or deliberate? Who knows but it was of their own making.

For those that doubt how the club sees Weideman: "Foxfooty.com.au understands the Suns have prioritised a key forward to partner Ben King in this year’s trade period and would be willing to offload their prized draft asset...currently Pick 3... Melbourne has the highest rated out of contract key position player on its books in Sam Weideman, while other lesser valued forwards such as Taylor Walker and Mason Cox are also without deals for 2022. Pick 3 would be too heftier price for the latter two, but the Demons rate Weideman supremely and would surely not lose him for any less". 2021-gold-coast-suns-trade-players-out-of-contract I can hear people say take pick 3 and run! However, we would need to find a young replacement for him. Doubt there are many mid 20 yo options out there. And, at what cost? While some on here devalue Morris he still has good contacts at the club so I give credence to his claim that we value him 'supremely'. And regarding Sam's mind space. He went thru a torrid time when his contract was last up for renewal in 2019, saying he was so down he didn't want to go out of the house due to the social and mainstream media pile on. iirc correctly he went off social media at the time. Thankfully mainstream media isn't getting stuck into him this year so hopefully Sam can take comfort from that and I'm sure the club would be working really hard to keep his confidence up.

The club would have much greater success with a fund raising campaign this year than 2020. Supporters will know that losing Alice and QB is sheer bad luck of timing. The current outbreak happens a fortnight later than it did and we get both events in. And this year we are winning! I would certainly put in.

Updated for Turner and Declase, our mid season rookies contracted for 6 months. They are replacements for our LTI players Tomlinson and Nietschke. Also updated the Free Agency status of affected players.

Club website says: "Joining the club as rookies, the duo will provide instant depth to Melbourne’s backline stocks, while also looking to impress at training and secure their position beyond 2021". I have them as 6 month contracts.

Except he has been adding mayo on the infectiousness and speed of infection of the current virus type. Very poor to use fear to justify the lockdown extension. national/scientists-find-no-evidence-strain-is-fast-moving-beast-2021 "The government justified yesterday’s extension of the lockdown by claiming what is now being called the “Kappa” variant of the virus is more contagious than previous outbreaks and infections are occurring more readily between people who only briefly came into contact. University of Melbourne Professor James McCaw, an infectious disease expert and member of the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee, which advises the national cabinet, said this was not supported by the data he had seen. “There is no epidemiological evidence that this virus spreads faster,” he said. “There is no clear reason to think this virus is spreading in different ways. “We need to be very cautious. We are on an absolute knife-edge in Victoria about whether we bring this under control rapidly or it develops further. But I don’t think it is helpful to seed alarmist or doomsday-type thoughts into the community.” Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton, who has described the virus strain at large in Melbourne as an “absolute beast” that was spreading “in settings and circumstances we’ve never seen before”, toned down his language yesterday, as acting Premier James Merlino detailed the state’s next stage of COVID-19 restrictions." Scare mongering by the Vic gov't is not what we need.

Records vs other states.