Lucifers Hero

Switching round 19 and 20 games still has a few border closure and exemption issues. Just let us play GCS next week in Qld!! If Brisb can come and go to Melb to play the Hawks next week then we can come and go to Qld to play GCS. Have a horrible feeling the AFL is hell bent on us playing in Darwin.

So you really think if we had played two top 8 sounds in a row we would have beaten them? Hmmm, I'm not buying the 'we beat top 8 sides but not the lower sides' pattern will continue or continue into finals. A closer look at some of our early wins shows: Geelong were missing Rohan, Dangerfield, Higgins, Smith and Cameron. And Geelong by their own admission hadn't twigged to the impact of the new 'stand the mark' rules. Bulldogs were missing Dunkley and adjusting to their first week without Treloar in the middle. They won't fall for the 'tag Libba out of the game trick' again. Richmond were missing too many players to list here. Dusty and someone else went off injured during the game. And like Geelong they hadn't twiigged to the impact of the new 'stand the mark' rules We were missing Weideman and Brown for but our selections since suggest they weren't missed. So anyone thinking because we beat the top 8 sides in the H&A games we will do so the next time we play or in the finals is in for a rude shock. We wont have to wait to finals to find out as we play Bulldogs, Eagles and Cats in the next few weeks.

We haven't won 3 games in a row since round round 9. We haven't won 2 games in a row since round 12. Regardless of where we end up in the 8 we need to get our act together if we want to go deep into the finals. At some stage we will need to win at least two in a row to make it to the big dance.

A very good article from Jack Niall on the fixture the-show-will-go-on "Forget the idea of a hiatus, or the Delta-inflicted version of a rain delay that forces them from the field for a week or two. Forget the concept of bringing forward the pre-finals bye". "No, if the AFL has its way - and Delta doesn’t finally pin them in a tackle nastier than Shane Mumford’s - the show will go on, without delay". And on a positive note: "No one at the AFL has a clue what will happen with crowds, but it is hard to see the grand final leaving the MCG if they can manage even half capacity this season".

I'm optimistic enough to think we will stay in the top 4. If we do I would much rather play Port than Sydney in the first final. If we don't, well it is a lottery.

Quite happy to see Port win. The in form interstate team is Sydney and they are pretty good at the MCG. Anything that keeps them out of the top 4 is a good thing. Port may have just done enough to stop Sydney having a double chance.

Effectively there already is a hub in Qld and one in Melb with exemptions to from SA and WA. More hubs will most likely require teams to go into full quarantine for a week or two. That is like declaring round 19 a bye to get meet border controls. 'Rolling byes' and scheduling games Thurs to Mon makes more sense . Teams can do the quarantine needed in the next state with a bye between the games. But if our hub is in Melbourne, I would be very happy!!! Or if we hub in Qld for the GCS game and play WCE there I would also be very happy!!

A bye next week doesn't make sense. There are teams in the same state where round 19 games can go ahead albeit without crowds in some cases: Ess vs GWS Cats vs Tigers WCE vs Saints (after Saints fly to WA tonight and fulfil quarantine requirements for one week). The WBD vs Crows game could go ahead with Crows FIFO as Port have done this weekend. Games caught up in border restrictions/lack of exemptions Blues vs North (will North be allowed back into Vic) Port vs Pies (Will Pies be able to follow the earlier protocols enforced by SA with Geelong) Lions vs Hawks (Will Hawks be given an exemption to enter Qld) GCS vs Demons (will Demons be given an exemption to enter Qld or (most unlikely) both teams to Darwin. So in round 19 the games that can be played should be played rather than declare it a bye. I think it is more likely the AFL will have a series of 'rolling byes' over the next few weeks and if necessary shift the finals series into October. Not all teams have played each other yet so they can't just stop the season after x rounds. We need to play GCS and WCE. Bulldogs need to play Adel, Hawks and Ess. Can't have the top 2 teams not playing each team once. Or, the AFL may juggle some games in later rounds to ensure all teams play each other once and shorten the season by a few games and have 'rolling byes'. Edit: I just saw Demonland's post of some player's in hard lockdown. All the more reason for 'rolling byes'

Guessing it is to do with the available times for games at Metricon and the AFL not wanting to shift our game time for impact on organisers and broadcasters. With new border closures the time and even the venue may change. As an aside, all the Qld games this weekend are at Metricon. Is the gabba unavailable? Just realised games being at Metricon could be to make life easier for broadcasters to staff up at one ground rather than two, at short notice.

NT closed its border to Vic so unless we go to Qld today the Darwin game won't be on.

Anyone else thinking the AFL may need to schedule a few byes in the next month or two to get the season done and then extend finals into October. They can't simply stop the season at the end of a given round as we have yet to play GCS and WCS once and Bulldogs are yet to play a few teams once. They can bring those games forward but byes and some October finals might be easier to organise.

Qld in much better shape than Vic. NT and Qld have/will close their borders. 14 day quarantine required to enter (unless exemptions granted). It is all very fluid and the AFL are trying to out run a storm which so far they have been excellent at. One thing for sure, the GCS game won't be in Darwin. I won't be sorry that we don't have that long haul trip We just need to accept that some clubs will benefit some won't. MFC is well placed to weather whatever storm comes our way.

Other states are allowing crowds. And yesterday's post: Since that post, Tigers/Lions game was moved to Qld, presumably so that Lions will be allowed back into Qld if they shut the border with Vic. The only games in Melb this weekend are Vic teams vs Vic teams. Edit: and at this stage Saints vs Port is in Melbourne.

Its warm at the other end.

South Australia border closures: "From midnight tonight, people coming to the state from Melbourne, Geelong and Bacchus Marsh will need to quarantine for two weeks. Anyone coming from other parts of the Victoria will need to undergo testing on days one, five and 13, but will not have to isolate once they get their first test result. The 70 kilometre border bubble with Victoria will continue. Plans to lift border restrictions with south eastern Queensland have been cancelled, but testing requirements will be lifted for people coming from Townsville and Birdsville" This adds further weight to the thought teams that flew to Qld today will be playing SA teams (and maybe WA) teams in SEQ in rounds 19-20.

3 to 5 day lockdown is the tip, from midnight tonight.

Posted this in another thread but probably more relevant here, re why Ess game moved to Qld: AFL spreading the risk across states rather than having 12 teams 'stuck' in Victoria and theu looking forward to who plays who in rounds 19 and 20. In rounds 19 and 20 Ess play GWS and Syd who have also flown to Qld. Then GWS and Syd play SA or WA teams and they are banking on it being easier those games played and teams back to SA and WA respectively. Apparently, Bulldogs preparing for a stint out of Vic. They play Adelaide in round 19 so likely to be in SE Qld. I can see mini hubs forming in SE Qld for most of the teams that flew up today. I wouldn't be surprised if the AFL swap some games around in the latter rounds to enable the season to be finished.

AFL spreading the risk across states rather than having 12 teams 'stuck' in Victoria. And looking forward to who plays who in rounds 19 and 20. In rounds 19 and 20 Ess play GWS and Syd who have also flown to Qld. Then GWS and Syd play SA or WA teams and they are banking on it being easier those games played and teams back to SA and WA respectively. Apparently, Bulldogs preparing for a stint out of Vic. They play Adelaide in round 19 so could possibly be in SE Qld. I can see mini hubs forming in SE Qld for most of the teams that flew up today. I wouldn't be surprised if the AFL swap some games around in the latter rounds to enable the season to be finished.

There has been a pattern of under reporting as much to do with poor systems, especially in regional areas as any deliberate need to cover the true situation. Non-reporting by the 90% drop in cases would seem unlikely to coordiate especially given the fragmented health and governance system in India. As we are no longer seeing the harrowing images and stories (from independent news outlets) of death and cremations one has to think that there has been a genuine improvement.

I don't think he is. I just googled 'Ivermectin in India' and a host of recent articles came up about its use since early May and a range of articles cautioning against its use. It coincides with the dramatic decrease in daily cases. Coincidence?

On a slightly different note. Three months ago in April India had a daily case rate of approx 250,000. The rate peaked at just under 400,000 per day two months ago in May. Since late June it has flat lined at around 40,000 - 50,000 per day. It is still a tragic figure. I have searched for the reasons for such a quick and dramatic improvement. There has been widespread full and partial lockdowns and while vaccines are up, vaccinating about 1 billion people in a matter of weeks doesn't seem likely. Can't imagine covid has peetered out. Perhaps a level of 'herd immunity'? All the above? Does anyone know of any literature/articles that indicate how the turnaround has been achieved?

Glad you found it useful. Makes the work worthwhile. Thanks for picking up the error. I will fix it in the next update (after each round). I just noticed that I have misclassified Freo in the count when they play. Will fix it with next revision.

Many thanks for the tweaks and changes, Andy. I've enjoyed reading the banter this thread has triggered.

Didn't wish to start a new thread so have bumped this. It looks like Demonland software has had some tweaks: symbols and ratings (x/6) for each avatar. And the details for number of posts and number of community 'ticks' no longer appear in posts. Not sure if some 'profiles' in posts have been abbreviated. Is it possible to know meaning of the symbols/ratings and to get post/'ticks' details back? While I'm on this thread, Thanks to all who manage 'Demonland' for a great job.

A summary of the Run Home: After this weekend's upsets good luck trying to predict the ladder order at end of H&A. Never before has the adage that 'any team can win on any given day' been so true. So no team can afford to relax even for what last week seemed to be 'easy' games. Interestingly the Bulldogs play the same 3 of the bottom 5 sides as we do so should be an even run home. Lions also play 2 of those 3 'lower' teams. Observations: I would think the top 6 teams are set but the order is up for grabs. Round 20 will probably decide the minor premiers: Demons or Bulldogs. Sydney is the only team that does not play a top 6 contender and only Freo as a top 8 contender, have a healthy list so could easily jump to 4th. Freo. Virtually playing an elimination final each week. Doubt they will make the 8. Eagles. Well what can one say. Boo stadium is no longer a fortress. Ess, Bulldogs and North have beaten them there this year. And vs North they had their best 22. Would love to see them miss. Saints. Like Freo they are playing an elimination final nearly every week. Their relatively poor % may cost them in the end. GWS. Like Freo and Saints nearly every week will be an elimination final. That draw may come in very handy. Ess: An 'easie'r draw than others and have very good % so a good chance of making the 8. I so desperately hope they don't. Richmond: Oh how the might have fallen. A lot needs to go there way to make it. Each week there are at least four 8-pt games On paper, Ess and Rich have the better chance of making the 8. ??? Unless Richmond make it we are the only finals team with the G as our home ground. If the top 3 stay the same regardless of order we will have at least 2 Home finals at the G. Look at round 23. It will be a doozie and depending how the cards fall will be key to final 8 order, especially if Saints and Freo are still in contention for a finals spot.