Random Task

That would just be about my dream result I reckon. Although I'm hoping for Macrae to somehow sneak through to us.

My uneducated prediction of the first round influenced by various phantom drafts such as todays article from Cal Twomey. 1. Western Bulldogs – JUH – (Matching bid) 2. Adelaide – Riley Thilthorp 3. North Melbourne – Elijah Hollands 4. Sydney – Denver Grainer-Barras 5. Hawthorn – Logan McDonald 6. Gold Coast – Will Phillips 7. Essendon – Tanner Bruhn 8. Essendon – Zac Reid 9. Essendon – Reef McInnes (bid not matched) 10. Sydney – Braeden Campbell (matched bid) 11. Adelaide – Finlay Macrae 12. GWS – Heath Chapman 13. North Melbourne – Archie Perkins 14. Freemantle – Brayden Cook 15. Port Adelaide – Lachie Jones 16. GWS – Bailey Laurie 17. Collingwood – Nik Cox 18. GWS – Luke Pedlar 19. Brisbane – Blake Coleman (matched bid) 20. Collingwood – Conor Stone 21. Sydney – Errol Guldon (matched bid) 22. Richmond – Tom Powell 23. Melbourne – Jack Carroll 24. Melbourne – Jake Bowey 25. GWS – Nathan O’Driscoll 26. St Kilda – Sam Berry *Edit: Just realised I missed Oliver Henry entirely, will have to re-work the order again.

Cal's Phantom Draft is in Cal Twomey's 2020 Phantom Draft: Top 30, late picks, your club's whispers He has us taking Jack Carroll and Max Holmes at 21 and 23 respectively with a bid on Sydney's Errol Guldon in between (which he predicted would be matched). He has tipped Macrae to go to Richmond one place before us :( JACK CARROLL - 21 POS: Midfielder Ht 187cm, Wt 79kg, DOB 20/12/02 From East Fremantle/Western Australia There are plenty of clubs who are fans of Carroll, with the talented West Australia turning heads with his decision making ability and capacity to dodge and weave through traffic. The midfielder is adept at winning his own disposals – noted by his place atop the colts' competition's contested disposal count – but also can get into space. At his height he also offers a bigger presence than some others around his mark in the pool. If not him? The Demons would be looking to see if Bailey Laurie is available, while Finlay Macrae would also be wiped off the board if still available at the Dees' pair of picks. MAX HOLMES - 23 POS: Midfielder Ht 189cm, Wt 74kg, DOB 29/8/02 From Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro There's always room for a smokey. Holmes would be a genuine surprising inclusion in the top-30, but it is not beyond the realms. The excellent athlete shapes as a real bolter given he has played so little football in the talent pathway, but he put himself on the map with his testing, when he ran 2.8 seconds in the 20-metre sprint and 6:25 in the 2km time trial. He played one game for Sandringham last year having given away an athletics career, with his mother Lee Naylor a former Olympian and Commonwealth Games gold medallist. If not him? The Dees have been linked to Holmes for his running power and he would get a look under certain scenarios. Caleb Poulter is another who may be in their thoughts as the first round stretches out. Melbourne "The Dees will use three picks at the draft, but where their third selection actually is remains in play. Melbourne is another club who is open to offload its second-round pick in exchange for a future pick if it can find a taker, which would mean they grab their third player at No.50. They have shown some interest in Sandringham Dragons small Jake Bowey, as well as athletic tall Fraser Rosman, who blew away the testing with his speed and endurance mix and can play on the wing. Another outside option who they could think about is Gippsland's Ryan Angwin, while leaping tall Jaidyn Hunter attracted some investigation through the year." *Cheers to the admin for cleaning up my post, I haven't got my head around the toolbar just yet.

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Another option rather than a simple flip of picks is to downgrade and get a lesser future pick in. 28 for Richmond's 36 and a future 4th or for Carltons 38 and a future 4th could be viable options. Richmond have Gold Coasts future 3rd so if we could work out a deal to acquire that we could get a good return for next year.

Another draft chat with Cal Twomey for those that are interested. https://www.afl.com.au/news/527152/chat-recap-a-draft-with-so-many-steals-new-name-in-top-20 Not a whole lot of information regarding the Dees except reiterating our links with Bailey Laurie with the Giants in the mix as well. What I did find interesting was the mention of Conor Stone and Luke Pedlar as possible first round bolters. Don't know much about Pedlar but Stone sounds like an interesting "explosive" player that knows how to hit the score board playing mainly as a forward flanker in 2019. Apparently is versatile with clubs seeing him as having potential in the back half and through the middle. Wonder if we're one of the clubs keen. If not, that's two more players into the first round unexpectedly that could see a slider drift out to us. Macrae was said to go early but Cal for the second time has mentioned that if he doesn't go early he could slide a bit into the later parts of the first round. Also talk of Tanner Bruhn more unlikely than likely to go top 10. Will he slide to our picks? Not sure he's the type of player we're after but on talent he would almost be too good to pass up if that did somehow happen.

"Dwayne Russell is a moron" - Nascent, 2020

https://www.afl.com.au/news/526016/cal-twomey-s-phantom-form-guide-december-update Cal Twomey's latest rankings with some draft whispers attached. Mentions Carroll is likely to be available in the second round and hasn't got us linked to him. Has Macrae at 15 but mentions that he could slip if he doesn't go early and we are a possibility. We've allegedly shown interest in Bailey Laurie who he has ranked at pick 23. Also mentions us in relation to a bid on Blake Coleman if he got through to 28.

All good BAMF, there is a good chance I will look somewhat foolish come draft night though.

Some really interesting tidbits in this article here. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/swans-commit-to-bid-on-ugle-hagan-if-he-s-available-at-pick-no-3-20201201-p56jjs.html Mentions that a bid on JUH will come no later than pick 3 with Sydney a certainty to bid on him if he still there although Adelaide and North also likely to bid. Braeden Campbell, the swans academy player allegedly won't slide past Adelaide's pick 9 for a bid. Collingwood are allegedly weighing up placing a bid on Blake Coleman, Lions Academy player, with one of their two first round picks. Perhaps the best part for us Dees fans could come courtesy of everyone's favourite 2nd team the Bombers . Reef McInnes, who the pies are wanting to get past their first 2 selections, is reportedly coming into strong consideration for one of the bombers first 3 picks. Pies will then have a big decision to make on whether they match this or not. There's obviously a lot that can still play out here and much can change with draft picks still able to be traded, but it's interesting to run through some hypothetical scenarios nonetheless. Bare with me here and hopefully this makes sense. Say both JUH and Campbell are taken prior to the bombers selections as has been frequently suggested by various phantom drafts. This pushes the bombers picks from 6, 7 and 8 out to 8, 9 and 10. Collingwoods hand moves out from 14 and 16 to at least 16 and 18. A bid for Lachie Jones could also come in amongst the bombers selections but to keep things a bit simpler I will leave that out of the equation. Bombers now have 8, 9 and 10. Pies have 16 and 18. I'll be a little generous to the pies here and run with Bombers placing a bid on McInnes at pick 10 instead of pick 8 or 9. Pick 10 is worth 1395 points, Pies get a 20% discount to match meaning they need to make up 1116 points. Their pick 16 is worth 1067 points meaning they will still need to make up the difference of 49 points. Pick 18 is worth 985 points, remove 49 from this figure and pick 18 gets pushed out to pick 20. Making sense? Looking at our draft hand, our picks have theoretically moved from selections 18, 19 out to 21, 22 with these 4 academy bids noting that Collingwoods first pick was ahead of ours. So what's left in the wash up of this scenario? Collingwood would be hoping for a scenario where a bid for McInnes is placed after their second pick, meaning they get Pick 14, 16 and McInnes. What will happen instead is they will get McInnes and pick 20 essentially stripping them of a "bonus" first round pick and pushing out their later selection. And lets face it, anything that hinders the pies is a happy news for everyone. Our picks of 18 and 19 end up being 21 and 22. The real benefit for us here is the fact that there will be an extra player in the draft pool for us to to make our selection from, thus increasing the chances of a player like Carroll or whoever it may be to slip through to us. Now there are obviously multiple scenarios that could also play out here including the pies trading out their selections or choosing to not match the bid at all, instead take their two first rounders to the draft. Either way, this leaves us in a better position in my opinion. This scenario also gets better for us if the Bombers place a bid with one of their earlier picks. Hopefully that made sense and my calculations are correct.

Pretty tough ask as we are still two weeks out from the draft and given the year we've had. We're likely to hear a lot more whispers in the days leading up to the draft. I'm no draft expert and haven't watched any of these kids play live so I'll put that caveat out there but I'll put my two-cents in from what I've read and gleaned from various phantom drafts and so called experts. Club rankings are likely to vary widely more so this year due to the lack of exposure so it wouldn't surprise me to see someone ranked in the top 15 slide out to our picks or have a name or two that most aren't familiar with pop up in the first and second round. Kids Unavailable to us ranked in the first or second round Jamarra Ugle-Hagen - Western Bulldogs NGA - tipped to go between 1-3 Braeden Campbell - Sydney Academy - tipped to go between 5 - 10 Lachie Jones - Port Adelaide NGA - tipped to go between 8 - 15 Reef McInnes - Collingwood NGA - tipped late 1st to early 2nd round, Cal Twomey has suggested he is being considered to be "bid on" by Essendon at one of their picks Conner Downie - Hawthorn NGA - tipped to go 2nd round Errol Gulden - Sydney NGA - tipped to go 2nd round I expect all clubs to match bids for these players. There was some suggestion that swans could pass on Guldon depending on where a bid lay but with a change in the draft rules and Sydney now stockpiling late picks I expect they will pick him up. Gold Coast pre-listed players ranked in the first and second round Alex Davies Joel Jeffrey The players that I expect to be gone before our picks. Logan McDonald Riley Thilthorpe Elijah Hollands Denver Grainger-Barrass Will Phillips Archie Perkins Heath Chapman Nik Cox Finlay Macrae Zach Reid Tanner Bruhn Oliver Henry The next group that could be in the mix for our selections Tom Powell Brayden Cook Nathan O'Driscoll Jack Carroll Zane Trew Zavier Maher Bailey Laurie Caleb Poulter Zac Dumesney Conor Stone Sam Berry Eddie Ford Corey Durdin Jake Bowey Matt Allison* Kaine Baldwin* *I could see us taking a tall and have included the next best ranked talls I could see. Sorry, its probably not exactly what you were after but it's the best I can do at this point. Perhaps someone with good mail might be able to give more insight into our possible draft selections @Yokozuna

"For a club that has just gone through a review and found problems in their footy department and distrust from their players this was unnecessarily provocative. Put it this way, it hasn't improved relations with their players," one senior industry source said. 2021 - Welcome to Demonland Zach Merrett

To be honest unless you're in the know then it's going to be a painful exercise trying to predict what could happen. I thought 50 and 28 might get us into hawthorn's pick at 24 if downie hasn't been bid on. But I'm not sure if that benefits us greatly unless we've got mail that a team is going to pinch a player we fancy. And you're correct that we can't trade any future picks because we don't have a 2021 first, however I don't think its that improbable to trade in a future first. For example, Collingwoods pick 14 and future first for 18 and 19. In theory we can trade-in any teams future first next year, it just requires some complex dealing to get it done. By that I mean that as we still have a future 2nd, 3rd and 4th, any club that is missing a future pick in those rounds and in theory "forbidden" from trading their first can be balanced out with us replacing that missing pick. An example of this could be Carlton, who have traded out a 2021 3rd round pick. Perhaps after trading out pick 8 this year to essendon they may want to buy back into the first round. At the moment they can't trade out a 2021 first, however, we could trade them our future third along with pick 19 for their future first. So many different permutations with different clubs that it hurts my brain to work them out. Then we have other clubs dealing amongst themselves both up to and on draft night that it makes putting hypothetical like I've just done somewhat redundant. Then there's the question of holding list spots over for the mid year draft next year (is that a rookie or senior list spot btw?) Finally, we may be happy to take 18, 19 and 28 to the draft and flip the remaining pick 50 or whatever it ends up being for a future pick. Likewise 18, 19 or 28 may be moved on for a future pick. Looking forward to the day when players can be traded on draft night just to complicate things further.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/525567/who-s-paying-what-dogs-pies-in-messy-stand-off-over-treloar-s-4-5m-deal "The Magpies are playing hard-ball on the amount to which they will commit, and are taking the view that this is not their problem. It is believed the clubs are as far apart as $200,000 a year on at least one season of the five-season deal.” So this is getting uglier by the minute. Thank god we didn't get involved in this deal. Also can't believe a deal can be signed off without the remuneration side of things sorted out.

Officially delisted by the lions today and sadly for him it sounds like he hasn't got any interest from the WA clubs.

A little bit concerning that his listed weakness on draft central are cleanliness at ground level and defensive pressure. Should be his bread and butter as a small forward. But how much can we actually read into these assessments with a year out of the game and us arm chair experts not getting a 3minute highlight clip to judge him off. Taylor and co will have done their homework and if we select him I'll back him in rather than [censored] about not selecting a different player I also know nothing about.

Few random thoughts. Last year our draft documentary highlighted our surprise as top 10 fancy Devon Robertson drifted outside of the first round. Our efforts to trade up to the opening pick of the second round to secure him revealed itself to be futile with teams offering future firsts to get it done. With an unknown group such as this one that potentially could see a large variation between club rankings, we are potentially well placed to pick someone we rate in the top 10 despite our first live selection likely to be in the early 20's. Likewise, we are in a fairly powerful position of taking our preferred player and selling pick 19 for a future pick or combination of picks to a team that may want to get into the first round. Collingwood is the obvious example with an already stated desire to add another selection with perhaps added incentive if McInnes hasn't been bid on. Outside the top 5 players, it wouldn't surprise me to see some "bolters" picked earlier than expected and to see a couple players slide further. Well, slide from the best educated guesses we can come up with at this stage anyway. With reduction in list sizes, reduced draftee exposure and some clubs not taking multiple picks, I wonder if we're going to see a larger emphasis on needs than talent earlier than we are accustomed. Conversely the opposite may be true and clubs might want to mitigate risk and take players with best evidence of talent as a means for projecting likely success. I'm finding this draft genuinely fascinating. Finally, Taylor is not afraid of selecting a player from left field. I'd imagine we'll see that yet again, perhaps even with one of our early selections.

We do have 28 though. But since that hypothetical is giving Sydney a free hit at another first rounder + their next academy pick on the cheap, I wouldn't be including 28 in the deal anyway. 19 + 50 for next years first + something else coming back our way could be good for both parties.

Cal had a chat on the draft today on afl.com In relation to the Dees I like what the Dees have done. They're paying for their picks in credit. They should get a nice player at that spot of the draft - would Tom Powell or Brayden Cook get through? Finlay Macrae is probably off the board but is a sneaky chance. Question about Perkins sliding to our first pick Don't think he'll be there then, Perkins. Would be absolutely staggered. Looking more and more like a top-12 pick as we get closer to it. On Cook to Adelaides 2nd round Cook will be a chance if he gets to the Crows. St Kilda also in the mix for him at their pick just before Adelaide gets in at the start of the second round. On O'Driscoll Nathan O'Driscoll has plenty of fans among club land and could be picked inside the first 15 of so as a tall midfielder. he has tested well athletically as well and played some senior footy. For me he probably fits a bit after that but he will play some AFL footy next year and has a body that's ready to go. On Carroll I think Jack Carroll fits in somewhere between 17-25. Midfielder who works through traffic well and also can play across half-back. On Winder in relation to Lions pick 25 Winder would be a bit early for me at that spot, but he did have a good season and put himself on the map in the WA colts competition. His composure has been compared to that of Shaun Burgoyne. Mids around the tigers pick/early 2nd round The midfielders potentially in that mix for the Tigers would be Powell, O'Driscoll, Carroll, Macrae, Trew. Also Zavier Maher and Sam Berry have their fans in the 20s part of the draft and are different players but both with some power. On Cox Nik Cox may struggle to get to the Pies' first pick at 14 although I think he'd be a very good chance to be snapped up then. A few other clubs before that will take a good look at him, including Essendon. And my smokey draftee Conor Stone Stone is definitely one to keep an eye on late in the first round and early in the second. Has some interest at that part of the draft and I dare say he would have played some really good footy this year in the NAB League. Has shown he can be a goalkicker. Link to full discussion here https://www.afl.com.au/news/524882/live-from-1pm-aedt-cal-twomey-answering-your-draft-questions

Wouldn't be surprised to see us take a tall. With May in the back end of his career we only have Lever as a Best 22 key back with Petty developing and Tomlinson and Tom McDonald more stop gap options. Think we'll look to add to our depth there and develop a young key position player. Cox sounds like an interesting prospect if he gets through while if Reid or Chapman somehow slid I think we would snap them up. Mahoney mentioned we believe there is more of a "variety of player" in this years draft, my guess is there after a KPP and a running "outside" midfielder with 18,19 and then they'll pick the next best talent to side through to 28, subject to further trades.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/524401/cal-twomey-s-2020-phantom-form-guide-november-update November update

Yes I'm finding it hard to picture how we trade up further from here with the picks we have and no first rounder next year. If anything I can see us try and trade 28 + 50 for something like Hawthorns pick 24 if a bid comes in for their academy player prior to that pick.

I've read it as we have been impacted by $5,000,000 this year compared to an ordinary year, not that we are now in debt by $5mil. Just highlighting how significant COVID has affected normal business. This is probably made up of the $3mil reduction in soft cap and the result of loss of income from gameday takings, membership, merchandise etc... My understanding is that we have budgeted for this and we're still on target for being unassisted/debt free with approximately $1mil donated. The statement that we have raised over $500,000 is still true, why they haven't said $600,000+ could be a number of things and anyone's guess. Perhaps they want to add a perception of urgency so people are more likely to donate further? Perhaps its just a nice round number.

My random smokey for a later pick is Conor Stone, a 188cm 81kg forward/winger from Oakleigh Chargers. Draft Central has a comparison podcast between him and Cook as well. "The players under our microscope are South Adelaide’s Brayden Cook, and Oakleigh Chargers’ Conor Stone. They measure up virtually identically in terms of size and athletic attributes, with both prospects having also enjoyed steep rises on the back of their on-field performances. Cook has come from the clouds this year to consolidate his standing as a draft bolter, while Stone burst onto the scene with promising showings in the Chargers’ 2019 NAB League premiership team. Their claims to dual-position status as deep forwards who can also play on the wing adds another air of similarity, making them an ideal pair to set alongside one another." EXPLAINER | Pocket Podcast: Brayden Cook vs. Conor Stone The AFL website also mentions he was a candidate to move up the draft boards in his top age year before COVID ground a halt to the Vic U18 program. Could be a good candidate to replace ANB or Melksham as a medium forward with potential to move onto the wing. “Stone made an immediate impression at NAB League level last year, booting five goals in his debut for the Chargers against the Murray Bushrangers. The medium and powerful forward remained a part of the Chargers' line-up from then on, including kicking two goals in their preliminary final against Sandringham and featuring in their Grand Final win a week later. Stone is a natural footballer who could have shot up the ranks this year.”