Everything posted by Macca
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A Day at the Races
Ok, here's our 5 picks for the Stradbroke Handicap Perast Voodoo Lad Santa Ana Lane Champagne Cuddles Invincible Gem Lots of value there so good luck with however which way your betting strategy plays out. If any 3 of the 5 feature in the finish the trifecta is sure to pay well.
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A Day at the Races
I have also put on a multi with 'Art Series' for the place only (with Sedanzer & Peaceful State to both win) ... paying 30-1. In fact, I have done a few place multi's today ... 'Heavenly Thought & Prompt Response also both offer decent odds for the place. Might be the way to go today Wadda.
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A Day at the Races
I'll take Santa Ana Lane in the Stradbroke. Here's how we sit ... Perast Voodoo Lad Santa Ana Lane @binman @binman
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A Day at the Races
Didn't realise it was the same race ... we don't want to be betting against each other!! Forget Despatch ... go El Magnificence! Maybe a trifecta race if I'm up on the day.
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A Day at the Races
Slight departure with my best bet this week - a bit of each way value. A Black Booker. Belmont Race 5 No.4 Art Series $7.00 win ($2.65 place) As stated earlier, the horse has never run out of a place in its 12 runs and has had 2 starts at Belmont for 2 wins. Goes hard at the finishing line too. Drawn wide but has good early speed - they run straight for the first 450m of the 1400m races at Belmont as well.
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A Day at the Races
Well the Stradebroke Handicap it is then - here's the racenet.com form for the race We probably should wait and see on the track conditions, weather outlook & the scratchings so maybe Saturday morning is the go for our tips? And are we just picking 5 horses and then we work out what we're going to do with the picks with our own betting strategies? If so, the order is as such ... Pick 1 - @Dee Zephyr Pick 2 - @Wadda We Sing Pick 3 - @Macca Pick 4 - @binman Pick 5 - @binman n.b. The Brisbane Cup & Derby are over the 2200m whilst the Dane Ripper Stakes & Stradbroke Handicap are over the 1350m so all 4 races involve a decent straight run until the first turn of their respective races ...
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A Day at the Races
Well you have to give credit to the MVRC in their efforts to attract some of the World's best middle-distance WFA performers for the WS Cox Plate. If they were to secure 2, 3 or 4 of the horses listed below they will be doing very well. Read more here ... Cracksman one of 13 invited to take on Winx in Cox Plate 2018 The LONGINES World's Best Racehorse Rankings for 3yos and upwards which raced between 1st January 2018 - 6th May 2018
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A Day at the Races
It's always good to follow a few horses DZ ... apart from the 'Zephyr' there's been Pounamu, Ace High, Le Romain and a couple/few others that we've followed up on. Speaking of which ... 'Despatch' is running around in race 9 at Flemington on Saturday whilst 'Art Series' is running in the 5th race at Belmont (Art Series has not run out of a place in it's 12 runs to date) Both horses seem to know where the finishing line is. And the Stradbroke has that Newmarket Hcp feel about it in terms of the 2 top weights drifting in the market (Impending/Santa Ana Lane vs Redkirk Warrior/Brave Smash) Winning Group 1 form over the distance ticks 2 very big boxes. And as much as the race often suits the lightweights, both top weights have dropped a couple/few kgs from their last few runs.
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A Day at the Races
Yeah we might be best to wait until maybe Saturday for our tips Wadda
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A Day at the Races
Well the Dan went out on a good note at least ... won 8 races and over 400k for the connections so a more than decent career. And Doomben on Saturday gets all the attention ... lets hope the track holds up. I'm going in for some First4 action in races 3 through to 8. The fields are strong, the racing starts early and we're all done by 4.20pm. Should be a really good days racing DZ.
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A Day at the Races
@binman @Wadda We Sing @Dee Zephyr Picked out 3 races that might suit our Trifecta/First4 ... as always, the consensus approval wins out. However, I've marked the Straddie on top as it seems the more obvious choice. Joint 4th favourite Danon Liberty is the big firmer but it is 1st emergency at this stage. Same deal for the other joint 4th favourite Osborne Bulls (2nd emergency) The card at Doomben is a good one with 3 x Group 2 races to accompany the 3 x Group 1's. Including the Brisbane Cup which has a small but reasonable field and the QLD Guineas which also has a decent field assembled. Stradbroke Handicap Group 1 $1.5Million 1350m 2.15pm Queensland Derby Group 1 $600k 2200m 3.35pm JJ Atkins Plate Group 1 $600k 1600m 2-Y-O 2.55pm
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A Day at the Races
16 years is a long time considering how much extra money has been poured into the industry in that time. The MVRC has invited the connections to about 13 top WFA horses for the Cox Plate including Cracksman and it will be interesting to see how many of the offers are taken up Wadda. As previously stated, there is a lot of competition at that time of the year with regards to the Worldwide WFA classics.
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A Day at the Races
The Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup now has a combined prize pool of $12.3Million ... it's these 2 races where we'll continue to see more of the imports. Especially the better prospects in the 3yo bracket from UK/Ireland/Europe ... they can get in at the lighter weights as long as they qualify. However, The Cox Plate WFA Classic does clash with the G1 Classics in Europe, Japan & the USA (Arc de Triomphe, QE II Stakes, Tenno Sho, Japan Cup & The Breeders Cup Classic Day* in the States) It is the wrong time of the year to attract the best WFA horses from overseas. I doubt that they'll ever move the Cox Plate to the Autumn to accompany the Queen Elizabeth Stakes/Australian Cup/Tancred Stakes but if it was to be moved we'd have 4 x Classic WFA events (2000m & 2400m) in the Autumn with a total prize pool of at least $12Million. That sort of money would attract a lot of interest especially as many of the better WFA horses from overseas might be available to race here. It's why Dubai decided to create a window in late March for their big day. *For those who may not be aware, the biggest racing day in the USA is the Breeders Cup Day which is held over the same weekend as arguably our biggest race day - Derby Day.
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A Day at the Races
The Prizemoney for the feature Spring races in Melbourne has had some significant increases ... read more here Also, Winx will make her return in the newly named Winx Stakes (formerly the Warwick Stakes) ... on August 18. The race is now a Group 1 affair and the prizemoney has been lifted to $500k ... read more here Anyway here are the changes in prizemoney for the Spring carnival in Melbourne ... the Sydney racing scene is sure to keep pace as it has in the recent past. All good competition for the industry in general. MELBOURNE CUP 2017 $6.3 million $2018 $7.3 million COX PLATE 2017 $3 million 2018 $5 million CAULFIELD CUP 2017 $3 million 2018 $5 million OTHER HIGHLIGHTS VICTORIA DERBY — $1.5 million to $2 million MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP — $300,000 to $500,000 INGLIS BANNER — $250,000 to $500,000 — $1.2 million to be spread across the 67 country Cups — non-TAB meetings up 20 per cent to $12,000 a race — Tier 2 meetings up 25 per cent to $15,000 a race — Benchmark 58 races up 11 per cent to $20,000 a race The VRC also announced that they would now pay down to 12th in the Melbourne Cup after the cut off point had been 10th. Moonee Valley will now pay down to 10th in the Cox Plate after previously paying down to eighth. Runners who finish from sixth to 12th will receive $150,000 in stakemoney. TOP INTERNATIONAL RACES BY PRIZEMONEY Pegasus World Cup 1800m $15,870,000 Dubai World Cup 2000m $13,200,000 The Everest 1200m $13,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Classic 2000m $7,930,000 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe 2400m $7,930,000 Japan Cup 2400m $7,706,000 Arima Kinen 2500m $7,706,000 Melbourne Cup 3200m $7,300,000 Dubai Turf 1800m $6,600,000 Dubai Sheema Classic 2410m $6,600,000 Breeders’ Cup Turf 2400m $5,290,000 Japan Derby 2400m $5,137,000 Ladbrokes Cox Plate 2040m $5,000,000 Caulfield Cup 2400m $5,000,000
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A Day at the Races
Ha ha ... I'm looking forward to the week long Ascot Carnival - there is a feature Group 1 race on every night and the trifecta pools might be big enough to warrant having an exotic bet on those Group 1's. A few Aussie horses will be competing as well as a few from HK. Starts on Tuesday June 19. In the meantime we've got the Stradbroke this weekend as well as the 3rd leg of the USA Triple Crown (Belmont Stakes Sunday 8am) 'Justify' should create history. Their courses are certainly different over there - here's Royal Ascot ...
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A Day at the Races
Yep ... reckon we pick the 5 horses between us and then we can decide what to do with the 5 picks as we see fit. Putting aside the 3-5-5 format and just nominate 5 horses that can win. With yourself having 2 picks for the time being until we rotate things around. Wadda can be next up with 2 picks after that and then I'll have have a go to complete the rotation. Using the 5 horses in a First4 might mean adding another horse and going with a 2-4-6-6 or a 3-3-6-6 combo or whatever. Boxing the 5 in a First4 is another option. Same deal for the trifecta although I tend to lean towards boxing the 5 and hope that the outsider of the 5 picks wins. But that is just me.
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A Day at the Races
That is overs ... he's sure to get a few big bags against the lesser lights as well as getting his consistent 2, 3 or 4 goals anyway. And I like Champagne Cuddles as well as 'Care to Think' to be running on in the Stradbroke although there are any number of lightweight chances. Impending is the one though even with the 57.5 kgs. It is a Group 1 horse.
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A Day at the Races
I reckon we leave the order as it is for now and BM gets 2 picks ... you've got to go with the form punter. We can of course change things around whenever we see fit. Next week we've got 3 Group 1's to choose from including the time-honoured Stradbroke Hcp. Here's the all-in odds for the Queensland Derby & the JJ Atkins Stakes And here are the Stradbroke all-in odds ... it's a decent field Wadda.
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A Day at the Races
Or we can leave BM there permanently playing that Adam Gilchrist role ? ... I'm leaning towards a box5 idea rather than splitting it up as we've been doing. Box5 was always my preferred way of betting going way back but I normally would only go that way in the big group races. Which is the way we've been picking out a race as well. Boxing the 5 in a trifecta costs a bit more but one can aim for 33% or 50% in a flex bet. Boxing the 5 in a First4 is an option as well ($20 outlay returns 18% boosted) Just a thought Wadda as we don't have to be locked into a fixed way of betting. I'm only suggesting going that way as I've decided to use the 5 picks that way myself.
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A Day at the Races
No Australian Group 1's replays to post up although you can view a replay of the Belmont Sprint here ... BM gets the winner again with Material Man. We didn't include 'Great Shot' but the trifecta didn't pay a lot anyway. Pounamu flashed home as usual and will be better for the run. There's a couple more Group 3's (1600m & 2000m) coming up in the next month over in WA and the usual suspects will be running around again in those races ... worth following up on. Anyway, here are the replays of the Epsom Derby & the Epsom Oaks from last night & Friday night ... 'Masar' was way over the odds in the Derby too. The odds-on favourite 'Saxon Warrior' finished 4th. I tossed up between 'Young Rascal & 'Masar' as my each-way hope but came up tails! ?
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A Day at the Races
Well at least the Demons didn't let us down Wadda ... and we've still got the Belmont Sprint (at Belmont, not Ascot) to deliver the goods.
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A Day at the Races
Working again Wadda (on and off) But I'll be tuning in via radio and might have a chance to pop into a pub to watch the 2nd half. That's my usual weekend there although being an AFL member allows me to make a late dash to any given game. Down to 3 legs in our multi but that might be a good thing sometimes ... Seaway might have run under slight duress instead of being scratched so at least we got a definitive answer. I included 'William Thomas' with the other 3 anyway and got 50-1 (non boosted?) Go Demons!!!!
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NFL
The NFL fan in me is really pleased that Foles decided to reject the Cleveland offer and take his chances at the Eagles. It wouldn't have been seen right by our standards here that a Superbowl MVP winning QB moves on straight after. The Eagles will be mighty pleased too ... 2 x top rate QB's playing tag-team. Luxury. How about them apples @Dappa Dan
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A Day at the Races
Forgot to mention that the racing from Epsom Downs (which includes the Derby run at 1.30am) is being covered by the free-to-air racing channel from 10.30pm Saturday night. And here is the Epsom Downs track layout (n.b. the maximum distance seems to be a mile and a half which is the Derby distance) ...
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A Day at the Races
Digressing overseas for a bit ... Saxon Warrior is shooting for the 2nd leg of the UK Triple Crown in the Epsom Derby 2400m $2.5Million (1.30am Sunday Morning) It's a bit too short for my liking even though Saxon Warrior should win ... 'Young Rascal' for the place with a small amount for the win might provide better value. Young Rascal has raced at the distance twice (and run well on both occasions) where as Saxon Warrior has only run at the mile. Saxon Warrior is trained by the horse whisperer though - Aiden O'Brien. Speaking of whom ... Here is a fascination hour long BBC Podcast on the master trainer himself