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Everything posted by Macca
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An interesting listen of an outsider's perspective of our list
Macca replied to grazman's topic in Melbourne Demons
'Thereabouts & threatening' is not necessarily threatening for a flag in an immediate sense rjay. Teams that can finish in the bottom part of the 8 or mid table can threaten for a flag a year or 2 later ... or they can fall away or remain in the same area. Do a lot of things right and get a good run with injuries and the prize is there for the taking. There's a whole host of clubs (including us) that are 1 - 3 years away from a flag but those same clubs can remain in similar positions or fall away. Both the Hawks & Cats can finish in any part of the 8 or miss completely ... but I doubt that either club will bottom out as you are intimating. If there was a total reliance on the draft like we had in the recent past then they could bottom out. But clubs are smarter now - trading and free agency will be and should be high on the agenda. And if a club trades well and brings in decent free agents then they shouldn't (in theory) bottom out. The unhealthy reliance on drafting teenage talent is largely a thing of the past. Don't get me wrong, drafting is still a very important aspect but to be 'all-in' on drafting is high risk. -
An interesting listen of an outsider's perspective of our list
Macca replied to grazman's topic in Melbourne Demons
But the Cats & Hawks continue to be thereabouts & threaten rjay and it's doubtful that either club will bottom-out. Mid table is as far any club would want to fall in an 18 team comp. Trading for established talent & signing free agents is just as important as the draft if not more so. As an example, we've just traded 2 first round picks for Lever whilst the Hawks picked up Frawley for a song a few years ago. The Cats picked up Dangerfield cheap as well. In recent times we've happily traded draft picks for Vince, Tyson, Hibberd, Melksham, Frost, Garlett, Lewis, Bugg & even Hogan could be counted as a trade. And the aforementioned Lever. Our list is being rebuilt on the back of astute planning. Wanting to draft good players is ongoing for all clubs year by year - but there are no guarantees drafting teenagers ... however, a club can afford to misfire in the draft every now and again as long as that club trades well and continues to bring in free agents. Player development, good coaching & good administration are the 3 other main areas but you'd always hope that your club wouldn't misfire in those areas -
Might try my luck in the last race at the Gold Coast tomorrow ... Race 9 Magic Millions Snippets 5.40pm 1200m 970k 3Y0+ SW&P I reckon the winner will come from Viddora, Dothraki or Snitzcraft and for the minor placings I'll also throw in Pinch River, Egyptian Symbol & Irish Constabulary. Trifecta and maybe a First 4 as well. The other races on the card at the Gold Coast holds a lot of interest and I'll have a few smaller trifecta's on the 2yo Classic, the 3yo Guineas & the Cup Race. As mentioned in a previous post Sunlight, Jonker, Ef Troop & Nomothaj are all in with a big show in the 2yo Classic but there's a number of other chances including Quackerjack & Fullazaboot. A very tough race to find the right Tri or F4 combo. As always, good punting to all!
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Atlanta are favoured to win Gorg but -3 is only the equivalent of a field goal so it's more like a toss-up game or as the Americans like to call it ... a pick 'em game. The Saints/Vikes game is the same ... the result could go either way and that won't be a surprise for the large majority of onlookers. The Pats should win easily and the Jags biggest issue against the Steelers will be scoring (unless their defence can conjure up some points as they have been doing from time to time) They might surprise though, you never know. I made a case for the Eagles to win a playoff game or 2 (at home) when Wentz went down ... and as you said, if the weather is inclement and if the game becomes a battle of the defenses, the Eagles can certainly win. It's the first game of the four this weekend (8.35am Sunday) but it's the game I'm most interested in as well as the Saints/Vikes game (8.40am Monday)
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No it's more than I don't believe Atlanta are that good away from their dome - the Rams were inept on the weekend too. The Eagles all round game is quite good despite Foles not being very good. If the Eagles use Foles the right way they can still win. Regardless, it will probably be a close game and close games are often decided by a fumble/turnover/luck. The Philadelphia D can hold out Atlanta's O and if they do that they're half-way there. If the game was being played in Atlanta I'd be picking the Falcons to win by a TD.
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Atlanta 17 @ Eagles 25 Saints 22 @ Vikings 30 Titans 13 @ Pats 35 Jags 16 @ Pittsburgh 23
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Leaderboard in the Comp (post-season) 3 - Go the Biff 2 - JV7, Gorgoroth, Dappa Dan, Macca 1 - Clintosaurus Next week's games (AEDT) Sunday - 8.35am ...... Atlanta (-3.0) @ Philadelphia (+3.0) Sunday - 12.15pm .... Tennessee (+13.5) @ New England (-13.5) Monday - 5.05am ..... Jacksonville (+7.5) @ Pittsburgh (-7.5) Monday - 8.30am ..... New Orleans (+3.5) @ Minnesota (-3.5) Remembering that each game next week is worth 1 point whilst the Championship games are each worth 2 points and the Super Bowl 3 points. Updated NFL playoff bracket: Divisional-round matchups, analysis, more
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This is by no means a tip but 'Sunlight' ran a sizzling time in a 2yo race at the Gold Coast on Saturday ... it ran 01:02.48 over the 1100m and won in a canter by 5 lengths. It is entered for the 1200m Magic Millions 2yo Classic and must be some sort of a show after that run (and it carried 58kg on Saturday as opposed to the 55kgs it will carry next Saturday) There's any number of other chances though. More on 'Sunlight' here ... Daylight to Sunlight's rivals as filly shines before Magic Millions (includes video of Sunlight's win on Saturday) Might be tempted to take Sunlight 'one-out' to win in a First 4 ... however, finding the 2nd, 3rd & 4th will be more than tricky. It's similar to how one might go about it with horses like 'Winx' The Hayes horse (Nomothaj) did beat Sunlight in the Maribyrnong Trial Stakes back in October. Jonker & Ef Troop are both heavily favoured as well. It's a tough race to find all the clear-cut good horses that can feature.
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Yep ... the prizemoney on offer is remarkable for the Magic Millions meeting. As previosly mentioned, I'll have a go at the 1400m Cup race and will probably have a few 'Interest' bets on the other feature races. There's not a lot of sport happening on Saturday arvo's now so the races takes centre-stage. Even in the footy season we rarely play on a Saturday arvo so the Brisbane & Adelaide carnivals fits nicely after the Autumn Carnival. And the big races from Europe kicks off in early May as well ... there are any number of Set Weight or WFA races to hold my interest. 'Winx' travelling over there for a few races adds to the interest.
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Keep forgetting to ask about how either of you are faring or if you even have a flutter at this time of year? I tend to bet the same way all year round ... a trifecta on a feature race or 2 most weekends (when they're up) and that's about it. First 4's sometimes but they are really hard to get unless one throws the field in for 4th (and by doing that you often end up with a low percantage of the dividend)
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Got 33% of the Tri D77 but missed the First 4 because of the topweight running 4th. I ended up putting the 6 in for the placings otherwise I might have got 100% of the dividend! ha ha The 7 and 8 were way overs but they'd both been running against the 2, 4 & 5. in the lead-up races. Running 5th a few times (the pair) Premiere got a great run. Anyway ... onto the Magic Millions we go ... the Cup race might do me at the big meet as the feature 2yo & 3yo races are a bit of a lottery. Any of the horses in those events might shine through. The Cup race is over 1400m with a million up for grabs.
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Yep, not your night tonight Gorg although full credit to the Falcons. Their big players had an impact and they got better as the game wore on. Ryan managed the game well for Atlanta. The Rams will no doubt bounce back although this loss will sting. The older heads in the organisation need to get around McVay & Goff.
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Atlanta held on to the ball for 26 plays in that 3rd quarter ... playoff experience at work.
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Ryan has done well to hang on to the ball - they've come at him hard.
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Both D's playing very well ... turnovers, fumbles could decide this game. Atlanta's running game not there and the Rams need to use Gurley more.
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Big moment there ... the ball was like a piece of soap. Falcons need to take advantage here
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Victory formation for the Titans ... they'll go to the Pats next week unless the Bills win. KC imploded again.
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Hope all is well there Wadda ... Pounamu has found it's true form and is worth following up on. I do like horses that swoop late ... 'Art Series' is another horse from the Ascot carnival to look out for down the track. Aside from the big Magic Millions meeting on the 13th Jan, there's not a lot happening with regards feature races until the Autumn carnival kicks off in February. However, there's 1 or 2 Stakes races most weekends to keep things interesting. For those that are interested here's a list of all the Group and Stakes races for the entire Australian season. I did find a G3 race at Sha Tin on Sunday to have a go at though - only 8 runners but 3 stand out and all 3 are well down in the weights from their lead-in runs. Those 3 horses are the 2, 4 & 5 and I'll put together a Tri & F4 and hope that some sort of combination comes through with the goods. The 7 & 8 could get into the minor placings as well. Sha Tin (Hong Kong) Sunday 7th Jan Race 7 (The G3 Bauhinia Sprint 1000m 7.10pm)
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Here's a good article that covers all sorts of categories Bill Barnwell makes a good case for Kamara but it's line ball between him and Hunt. Barnwell's 2017 NFL awards: Picks for MVP, best rookies, more
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Wentz hardly had an off day in the 13 games that he played ... he was probably very good to outstanding in 10 - 11 games. Those numbers would probably measure up quite well against Brady & Gurley but Wentz got injured at the wrong time for an award such as this. What happens at the end of the regular season stands out more ... that's why I reckon Gurley can win the award. We'd probably have any number of Brownlow comparisons through the years where similar scenarios have happened.
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Given that it's an award for the regular season only it would have been interesting to see how Wentz would have fared if he missed the first 3 games of the year and then played the rest of the season unimpaired (the reverse of what actually happened)
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I reckon Gurley wins in a bit of an upset ... he's been outstanding however and finished off the season well. 2 strings to his bow has to be acknowledged. Brady has been very good again and is odds on favourite but he's had better years.
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Yeah it's hard to go past the 4 home teams to win but there's nearly always at least 1 upset in both of the first 2 weeks of the playoffs. Atlanta are probably the best road team this week but the Rams will be primed and ready. Maybe Carolina if they can produce their best? The framed odds reflect that too - KC $1.25, Rams $1.30, Jags $1.25 & Saints $1.33. All 4 teams are either -6.5 or -7.5 to win at the line. Having said all that I'm picking all of the home teams! Titans 16 @ KC 27 Falcons 19 @ Rams 22 Bills 13 @ Jags 27 Panthers 29 @ Saints 32
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I reckon the NFC is wide-open. Any of the teams can progress to the SB if they get hot ... home field throughout for the Eagles keeps them right in it too. In the AFC the Pats & Steelers obviously stand out but neither team is as good as they've been in the recent past.
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I don't believe they'll make a move on McCarthy anytime soon. It will be interesting to see what they decide to do with Hundley and whether they decide to pay for a decent back-up QB. Thompson was all-in on drafting and seemingly had no interest in free agents. I reckon that will change. The GB roster has a number of holes to fill ... that was highlighted with the loss of Rodgers. McCarthy is safe as long as a healthy (or unhealthy) Rodgers is on the roster.