Macca

Trust your judgement Gonzo so things might have improved somewhat although ... I believe a bigger sample size at least 5 years on is more applicable. I started a thread in late 2014 outlining and highlighting 10 drafts and concentrating on the top 5 picks ... 10 Years of Drafting (2000 - 2009) Within that link exposed a number of myths and some absolute truth's as well. My summation is that unless the recruiters are generally incompetent right across the board, there has to be a system problem. We need to look further than our own club too. A macro view is required. Appreciate your research though and it is food for thought. I want way overs for Hogan as I absolutely rate the bloke ... he's had rotten run with injuries and family tragedies but at some stage that time will pass and he'll be fit, firing and ready to go.

The reported yearly offer ($1.2Million?) ups the ante even further (for us) Sure, we can win without him but if you are in a position of strength you do not give an inch.

I reckon a few here are undervaluing Hogan a bit too. The club is hopefully valueing Hogan as a valuable player who we don't want to lose. And that value is that he is injury free from here on in and can play forward, back and in the middle in a topline fashion. As a utility he is right up there. So if you want him pay up.

2 early picks could equal 1 bust whilst the other pick could take 3-5 years to bear fruit. I prefer to keep things real and I do not want the club to lose out

My view on how flawed drafting can be came before we ever had a draft and also not on what does consistently happen in the States. The true value for Hogan is more like 3 x top 10 picks based on those flaws if the desire is to win-out on the deal. Who wanrs to lose out? Get everything we can and then some.

And I am amused as well ... that is why I argue that picks are overvalued from a macro & micro point of view We are in agreeance except I reckon there is a true value attached if analysing the flaws

It is flawed and you've admitted that so you then have to factor in the flaws as I have done. I stand by my comment tbat draft picks are overvalued. The only upside to that is that if every club overvalues a draft pick then I suppose it is fair all round Doesn't make it right though.

In effecr you are still arguing that a pick has value if we go all out to get certain picks for Oliver & Weideman. And by the way, Weideman is a top 10 pick so the expectations from most fans is top player ... and that may or may not happen. And we had to move to pick 3 to get Oliver ... and Oliver might have been a bust if we look at the facts & data thst the draft spits out. There is a lot of confirmation bias that suits but often only when that confirmation bias is a positive.

Hindsight comment as were not saying that at the time ... in fact, you were probably all-in with the pucks then like most others here were Wrong again .Gonzo .. for instance 3 of the first 4 picks in the 2012 draft are busts. It would be easy for me to simply go along with the crowd but the crowd is often wrong The draft is flawed and that is a fact so because it is flawed, that factor has to be taken into account.

Your view is a micro view Gonzo ... mine is a macro viiew and therefore the correct view. Facts are facts ... Stephen Wells for instance went from forever drafting stars to constantly drafting B- players. And draft picks relate to the system that draft picks are related to ... and the system is flawed and always has been. Jummy Toumpas, Cale Morton, Brock McLean and hundreds of others were star, standout juniors. That is why they were top-end draft picks. If you believe tnat it is just the recruiters constantly making rash or poor decisions you are wrong.

Draft picks are severely overrated ... the fact of the matter is that top 5 or top 10 picks are hit and miss. Half of all first round draft picks are busts in terms of expectations. B- or worse and the facts bear that out. And most if not all first round draft picks are standout juniors. So those are the facts. Bearing that in mind we did not pay overs for Lever at all. If you want to believe the bs & spin, you'll believe otherwise. So if we want 'like-for-like' for Hogan, even 2 top-end draft picks doesn't cut it ... the percentage play says 1 of those 2 picks will be a bust and with the other pick, we have to wait at least 3 years for the prospect to become a decent footballer. If we want more than 'like-for-like' we'll need more than 2 top-end draft picks. Too many people including the so-called 'experts' value a draft pick in terms of best-case-scenario. Which is the wrong way to view matters. The best way to view it is if you were the CEO of a company who oversees realistic budgets.

The Premiere Stakes at Randwick is a Group 1 race in terms of quality ... Shoals & Santa Ana Lane can't be discounted in the race too. Both at double figure odds. A bit of give in the track brings both horses into it too The race is like a mini-Everest with 6 of the starters engaged in the Everest a fortnight later. 2 of the other Everest runners are in the Moir Stakes Friday night and with 1 slot left open in the Everest, Viddora & a couple of others have a chance to stake their claim. And Chautauqua has a jump-out scheduled for Friday night as well. It's all happening! I'll be doing my usual Box5 trifecta's whilst hoping that my 4th & 5th picks can run 1st & 2nd! There's value aplenty across the 3 meetings though. 'Get-On' & Sky's 'Form Line' show will be must viewing tomorrow night.

You are doing well in the comp first time up DZ ... in fact, you're in the lead! (along with 11 others) For whatever reason we haven't seen a lot of strong teams on the road against weak opposition so far ... plus, I'm not sure there are many 'pushover' teams about anyway. And a few of the traditionally strong teams are performing below par as well. There were 5 road winners in week 3 but 3 of the 5 were complete outsiders - especially the Bills & Giants. It's a tipsters nightmare at the moment. In other news it looks like we could see a relaxing of the strict new interpretation of 'roughing the passer' ... NFL Competition Committee members reportedly uncomfortable with roughing the passer calls

A host of Group racing this weekend and here are the main 6 features ... all of them good betting races too. There are a few short-priced favourites in 4 of the features but those horses are up against some high quality rivals. Moonee Valley - Moir Stakes (Friday) Randwick - Premiere Stakes Randwick - Flight Stakes Randwick - Epsom Hcp Randwick - Metropolitan Hcp Caulfield - Underwood Stakes (Sunday)

And if it isn't just noise we should play hard-ball. An ambit claim with a view to at least getting a fair deal. Of course, Jesse is contracted for next year and previously this would have been to the club's advantage but not necessarily these days. If Hoges is on the move and a deal can't be done we should look to be adding a year or 2 on to his current contract so as to strengthen our position. Or stitch up a long term deal. It doesn't necessarily become untenable if a move doesn't happen. But I'm not of the belief that he's gone yet but where there's smoke there's fire. But as @Dr. Gonzo mentioned a few posts back, if we're in dialogue with May's management we'd need some decent picks to secure him. We may well have hopped on the front foot but who knows?

Still no one off the mark in the tipping comp ... just the 1 point on offer this week. There's probably a couple of more obvious road chances this week but who knows? It's another tough week.

Well, I can come to terms with things quite quickly once things become quite obvious. The NFL almost certainly won't be doing a back-flip on this new ruling - not this season anyway. So pass-rushers are just going to have to adapt otherwise they run the risk of being ejected ... at least it applies to all the teams so in a way, it's fair. I don't like it but the new ruling is almost certainly here to stay.

The classic example is Peyton ... used in a primarily conservative way out of the pocket by Tony Dungy he ends up at Denver where Elway uses him the same way but with very few deep throws. Result ... 2 SB's and 1 SB victory (at Denver)

Having both is risky though ... I reckon if a QB is capable enough inside the pocket a good coach can then give that QB eniugh help to still win more than lose. Most of Brady & Peyton's passes were/are over very short distances.

There is lot to be said for a top quality QB to just play like Peyton or Brady layz. Both pocket-passers who because they had/have limited scope outside of the pocket, that is where they stay primarily. It is often a little boring but a very effective way of playing the position. Rodgers at Green Bay spends way too much time outside the pocket ... thus, he gets injured a lot.

Ha ha ha! I know he plays for a rival of yours Dappa but Eli was simply great twice in 2 playoff series. He was superb. A big occasion player who has never been much better than B grade in nearly all his regular seasons. In swimming he would be regarded as a negative-splitter ... some players are like that - they need the brightest lights shining on them to perform at their best. Foles was like that too and I hope he gets another shot at that glory. You've got a more than handy back-up to Wentz but I'm betting that the 49ers wouldn't mind him on their roster right now. Apart from tomorrow's game ( Pittsburgh @ Tampa) there's a beauty coming up this Friday - Vikings @ Rams. A big big game for more than a few reasons. And no one scored a point in the comp so we're all still in the Gold medal position!

The reason I thought you could do ok without Wentz was that Foles had had a very good year under Chip Kelly (27 TD's and only 2 interceptions) and Pederson had a chance to tap into that. I thought you could still win a playoff game but Foles went 2 steps further of course. Plus it was late in the year and you only had to win 1 more game to secure the 1 seed with a week off and a home final. With Rodgers twice and now Garoppolo, nothing was secured team wise so writing off the season was the logical conclusion given the strength of both teams otherwise. Plus the Eagles were a far better all round team than what the 49ers are now or what the Packers were in both those years. The circumstances were vastly different although I don't believe anyone could have foretold what Foles went on to do. He was 'Eli-like' for a month!

Have you 3 back-ups ... Mullins, Beathard, Heneghan? Any of them any good layz? Shame about what happened to Garoppolo ... if it's any consolation the Packers season went South last year and in 2013 when Rodgers broke his collarbone in both years. Like no other sport, your season is suddenly over without warning when the QB is such an important fixture in a team and then goes down. Hopefully one of your back-ups can perform.

I've had a small wager on Max tonight - 10.00 seems overs too. Such a dominant season will surely be rewarded with at least a top 3 finish ... would be a popular win amongst the footy public too. Go Big Maxy!

Yep ... and the niners look like losing Garoppolo to an ACL injury. Non contact too. I'm surprised there aren't more ACL injuries on the artificial surfaces that have no give in them. You've got to feel for their fans, all the same. The Buffalo win is an absolute surprise ... and to a lesser extent the Giants & Tennessee wins. Bears leading the NFC North although any of the 4 teams could win that division. I'd like to be confident in questioning the Pats chances but they'll bounce back as they always do.