Everything posted by Macca
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A Day at the Races
@binman @Wadda We Sing @Dee Zephyr Picked out 3 races that might suit our Trifecta/First4 ... as always, the consensus approval wins out. However, I've marked the Straddie on top as it seems the more obvious choice. Joint 4th favourite Danon Liberty is the big firmer but it is 1st emergency at this stage. Same deal for the other joint 4th favourite Osborne Bulls (2nd emergency) The card at Doomben is a good one with 3 x Group 2 races to accompany the 3 x Group 1's. Including the Brisbane Cup which has a small but reasonable field and the QLD Guineas which also has a decent field assembled. Stradbroke Handicap Group 1 $1.5Million 1350m 2.15pm Queensland Derby Group 1 $600k 2200m 3.35pm JJ Atkins Plate Group 1 $600k 1600m 2-Y-O 2.55pm
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A Day at the Races
16 years is a long time considering how much extra money has been poured into the industry in that time. The MVRC has invited the connections to about 13 top WFA horses for the Cox Plate including Cracksman and it will be interesting to see how many of the offers are taken up Wadda. As previously stated, there is a lot of competition at that time of the year with regards to the Worldwide WFA classics.
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A Day at the Races
The Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup now has a combined prize pool of $12.3Million ... it's these 2 races where we'll continue to see more of the imports. Especially the better prospects in the 3yo bracket from UK/Ireland/Europe ... they can get in at the lighter weights as long as they qualify. However, The Cox Plate WFA Classic does clash with the G1 Classics in Europe, Japan & the USA (Arc de Triomphe, QE II Stakes, Tenno Sho, Japan Cup & The Breeders Cup Classic Day* in the States) It is the wrong time of the year to attract the best WFA horses from overseas. I doubt that they'll ever move the Cox Plate to the Autumn to accompany the Queen Elizabeth Stakes/Australian Cup/Tancred Stakes but if it was to be moved we'd have 4 x Classic WFA events (2000m & 2400m) in the Autumn with a total prize pool of at least $12Million. That sort of money would attract a lot of interest especially as many of the better WFA horses from overseas might be available to race here. It's why Dubai decided to create a window in late March for their big day. *For those who may not be aware, the biggest racing day in the USA is the Breeders Cup Day which is held over the same weekend as arguably our biggest race day - Derby Day.
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A Day at the Races
The Prizemoney for the feature Spring races in Melbourne has had some significant increases ... read more here Also, Winx will make her return in the newly named Winx Stakes (formerly the Warwick Stakes) ... on August 18. The race is now a Group 1 affair and the prizemoney has been lifted to $500k ... read more here Anyway here are the changes in prizemoney for the Spring carnival in Melbourne ... the Sydney racing scene is sure to keep pace as it has in the recent past. All good competition for the industry in general. MELBOURNE CUP 2017 $6.3 million $2018 $7.3 million COX PLATE 2017 $3 million 2018 $5 million CAULFIELD CUP 2017 $3 million 2018 $5 million OTHER HIGHLIGHTS VICTORIA DERBY — $1.5 million to $2 million MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP — $300,000 to $500,000 INGLIS BANNER — $250,000 to $500,000 — $1.2 million to be spread across the 67 country Cups — non-TAB meetings up 20 per cent to $12,000 a race — Tier 2 meetings up 25 per cent to $15,000 a race — Benchmark 58 races up 11 per cent to $20,000 a race The VRC also announced that they would now pay down to 12th in the Melbourne Cup after the cut off point had been 10th. Moonee Valley will now pay down to 10th in the Cox Plate after previously paying down to eighth. Runners who finish from sixth to 12th will receive $150,000 in stakemoney. TOP INTERNATIONAL RACES BY PRIZEMONEY Pegasus World Cup 1800m $15,870,000 Dubai World Cup 2000m $13,200,000 The Everest 1200m $13,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Classic 2000m $7,930,000 Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe 2400m $7,930,000 Japan Cup 2400m $7,706,000 Arima Kinen 2500m $7,706,000 Melbourne Cup 3200m $7,300,000 Dubai Turf 1800m $6,600,000 Dubai Sheema Classic 2410m $6,600,000 Breeders’ Cup Turf 2400m $5,290,000 Japan Derby 2400m $5,137,000 Ladbrokes Cox Plate 2040m $5,000,000 Caulfield Cup 2400m $5,000,000
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A Day at the Races
Ha ha ... I'm looking forward to the week long Ascot Carnival - there is a feature Group 1 race on every night and the trifecta pools might be big enough to warrant having an exotic bet on those Group 1's. A few Aussie horses will be competing as well as a few from HK. Starts on Tuesday June 19. In the meantime we've got the Stradbroke this weekend as well as the 3rd leg of the USA Triple Crown (Belmont Stakes Sunday 8am) 'Justify' should create history. Their courses are certainly different over there - here's Royal Ascot ...
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A Day at the Races
Yep ... reckon we pick the 5 horses between us and then we can decide what to do with the 5 picks as we see fit. Putting aside the 3-5-5 format and just nominate 5 horses that can win. With yourself having 2 picks for the time being until we rotate things around. Wadda can be next up with 2 picks after that and then I'll have have a go to complete the rotation. Using the 5 horses in a First4 might mean adding another horse and going with a 2-4-6-6 or a 3-3-6-6 combo or whatever. Boxing the 5 in a First4 is another option. Same deal for the trifecta although I tend to lean towards boxing the 5 and hope that the outsider of the 5 picks wins. But that is just me.
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A Day at the Races
That is overs ... he's sure to get a few big bags against the lesser lights as well as getting his consistent 2, 3 or 4 goals anyway. And I like Champagne Cuddles as well as 'Care to Think' to be running on in the Stradbroke although there are any number of lightweight chances. Impending is the one though even with the 57.5 kgs. It is a Group 1 horse.
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A Day at the Races
I reckon we leave the order as it is for now and BM gets 2 picks ... you've got to go with the form punter. We can of course change things around whenever we see fit. Next week we've got 3 Group 1's to choose from including the time-honoured Stradbroke Hcp. Here's the all-in odds for the Queensland Derby & the JJ Atkins Stakes And here are the Stradbroke all-in odds ... it's a decent field Wadda.
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A Day at the Races
Or we can leave BM there permanently playing that Adam Gilchrist role ? ... I'm leaning towards a box5 idea rather than splitting it up as we've been doing. Box5 was always my preferred way of betting going way back but I normally would only go that way in the big group races. Which is the way we've been picking out a race as well. Boxing the 5 in a trifecta costs a bit more but one can aim for 33% or 50% in a flex bet. Boxing the 5 in a First4 is an option as well ($20 outlay returns 18% boosted) Just a thought Wadda as we don't have to be locked into a fixed way of betting. I'm only suggesting going that way as I've decided to use the 5 picks that way myself.
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A Day at the Races
No Australian Group 1's replays to post up although you can view a replay of the Belmont Sprint here ... BM gets the winner again with Material Man. We didn't include 'Great Shot' but the trifecta didn't pay a lot anyway. Pounamu flashed home as usual and will be better for the run. There's a couple more Group 3's (1600m & 2000m) coming up in the next month over in WA and the usual suspects will be running around again in those races ... worth following up on. Anyway, here are the replays of the Epsom Derby & the Epsom Oaks from last night & Friday night ... 'Masar' was way over the odds in the Derby too. The odds-on favourite 'Saxon Warrior' finished 4th. I tossed up between 'Young Rascal & 'Masar' as my each-way hope but came up tails! ?
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A Day at the Races
Well at least the Demons didn't let us down Wadda ... and we've still got the Belmont Sprint (at Belmont, not Ascot) to deliver the goods.
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A Day at the Races
Working again Wadda (on and off) But I'll be tuning in via radio and might have a chance to pop into a pub to watch the 2nd half. That's my usual weekend there although being an AFL member allows me to make a late dash to any given game. Down to 3 legs in our multi but that might be a good thing sometimes ... Seaway might have run under slight duress instead of being scratched so at least we got a definitive answer. I included 'William Thomas' with the other 3 anyway and got 50-1 (non boosted?) Go Demons!!!!
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NFL
The NFL fan in me is really pleased that Foles decided to reject the Cleveland offer and take his chances at the Eagles. It wouldn't have been seen right by our standards here that a Superbowl MVP winning QB moves on straight after. The Eagles will be mighty pleased too ... 2 x top rate QB's playing tag-team. Luxury. How about them apples @Dappa Dan
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A Day at the Races
Forgot to mention that the racing from Epsom Downs (which includes the Derby run at 1.30am) is being covered by the free-to-air racing channel from 10.30pm Saturday night. And here is the Epsom Downs track layout (n.b. the maximum distance seems to be a mile and a half which is the Derby distance) ...
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A Day at the Races
Digressing overseas for a bit ... Saxon Warrior is shooting for the 2nd leg of the UK Triple Crown in the Epsom Derby 2400m $2.5Million (1.30am Sunday Morning) It's a bit too short for my liking even though Saxon Warrior should win ... 'Young Rascal' for the place with a small amount for the win might provide better value. Young Rascal has raced at the distance twice (and run well on both occasions) where as Saxon Warrior has only run at the mile. Saxon Warrior is trained by the horse whisperer though - Aiden O'Brien. Speaking of whom ... Here is a fascination hour long BBC Podcast on the master trainer himself
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A Day at the Races
Looks a good bet Wadda ... I've done the same. When was the last time we were confidently picking the team to win by over 40 points?
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A Day at the Races
Best Bet ... Rosehill Race 5 No.1 New Tipperary $4.20 The horse looks well placed in this race and is ready to win ... it should feature in the finish at least and is just about each-way odds. It maps well out of barrier 5 in a 10 horse field as well. Also, the Sky Racing team have it as their best bet.
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A Day at the Races
Ascot Race 7 Belmont Sprint 1400m Group 3 150k Sat 6.15pm W/2/3 Battle Hero W/2/3 Falcon Crest W/2/3 Pounamu 2/3 ???????? 2/3 ???????? With @binman to finish things off. Take your time though BM, your usual way of studying up on a race ends up identifying 2 genuine chances quite regularly And they don't jump until 6.15pm.
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A Day at the Races
Maybe by 10am? With BM to nominate his 2 it's looking like a Box5 Tri for me ... it could be decent dividend too as there are another 4 or 5 horses apart from our 3 that will attract the punter in the exotics. The extra 200m suits a few horses as well.
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A Day at the Races
Ha! I play around with our picks in terms of maybe boxing the 5 in a trifecta and settling on a 33% - 50% payout and adding a horse of my own in a 2-4-6-6 First4 ($20 outlay delivers 30% - boosted) But it depends on what horses we nominate and the depth of the winning chances .... I reckon the 3 - 5 - 5 is a good base to work from especially with the input from the 4 of us.
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A Day at the Races
It's settled then ... Ascot Race 7 Belmont Sprint 1400m Group 3 150k Sat 6.15pm W/2/3 ???????? W/2/3 ???????? W/2/3 Pounamu 2/3 ???????? 2/3 ???????? I've put in my tip so it's over to @Dee Zephyr to lead things off then @Wadda We Sing then @binman to finish things off with a couple of placegetters. Good luck Gentlemen!
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A Day at the Races
In all seriousness the Belmont Sprint is the pick of the 3 races anyway ... it's a good betting race in terms of there being 3 or 4 genuine chances to win whilst another 3 or 4 could get into the placegetters or the First4. Plus, the race is on a couple of hours after the footy so it won't serve as a distraction and it could be a win/win/win for us (Demons win and we land the trifecta and the First4) No prizes for guessing which horse I'm going to nominate either ? Anyway, we'll wait for a bit to see what BM & Wadda want to lean towards.
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A Day at the Races
@Dee Zephyr @Wadda We Sing @binman Picked out 3 possible trifecta races for Saturday ... take a look at your leisure fellas. 'Pounamu' is back after one trial and is up against a few decent types in the Belmont Sprint (Ascot WA) Drawn the outside alley too - which could easily suit considering how the horse likes to swoop late. I've marked the Belmont Sprint on top because the Sunshine Coast is currently rated as a Heavy10 and also, I'm biased towards the Pounamu Race! ? It's also worth noting that we've had success with the trifecta twice - once over the 1400m and the other over 1350m. Ascot Belmont Sprint 1400m Group 3 150k Sunshine Coast PJ O'Shea Stakes 2200m Group 2 200k Sunshine Coast Moreton Cup 1200m Group 2 175K
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The Soccer thread
Many of the pundits are not necessarily pointing the finger at Karius but at the decision by Liverpool to have him as their 1st choice goalkeeper. If it was the AFL he'd possibly be cooked but there's any number of soccer teams where he'd find a home. And Karius has probably already made oodles of cash and is only 24 years old. It's a whole different world to the one we live in GV. Just over a couple of weeks to the World Cup ... sleeping patterns are sure to suffer but it will be worth it. Seeing we're on a new page I may as well copy & paste the schedule ... if we can scramble a draw out of our first game (Sat 16th June vs France 8pm) we'll give ourselves a chance to progress from the group. All times AEST. Friday, June 15: Russia v Saudi Arabia, Moscow (Luzhniki) (1am) Egypt v Uruguay, Yekaterinburg (10pm) Saturday, June 16: Morocco v Iran, Saint Petersburg (1am) Portugal v Spain, Sochi (4am) Australia v France Kazan (8pm) Argentina v Iceland, Moscow (Spartak) (11pm). Sunday, June 17: Peru v Denmark, Saransk (2am) Croatia v Nigeria, Kaliningrad (5am) Costa Rica v Serbia, Samara (10pm) Monday, June 18: Germany v Mexico, Moscow (Luzhniki) (1am) Brazil v Switzerland, Rostov-on-Don (4am) Sweden v South Korea, Nizhni Novgorod (10pm). Tuesday, June 19: Belgium v Panama, Sochi (1am) Tunisia v England, Volgograd (4am) Poland v Senegal, Moscow (Spartak) (10pm). Wednesday, June 20: Colombia v Japan, Saransk (1am) Russia v Egypt, Saint Petersburg (4am) Portugal v Morocco, Moscow (Luzhniki) (10pm) Thursday, June 21: Uruguay v Saudi Arabia, Rostov-on-Don (1am) Iran v Spain, Kazan (4am) France v Peru, Yekaterinburg (10pm) Friday, June 22: Australia v Denmark Samara (1am) Argentina v Croatia, Nizhni Novgorod (4am) Brazil v Costa Rica, Saint Petersburg (10pm). Saturday, June 23: Nigeria v Iceland, Volgograd (1am) Serbia v Switzerland, Kaliningrad (4am) Belgium v Tunisia, Moscow (Spartak) (10pm). Sunday, June 24: Germany v Sweden, Sochi (1am) South Korea v Mexico, Rostov-on-Don (4am) England v Panama, Nizhni Novgorod (10pm). Monday, June 25: Japan v Senegal, Yekaterinburg (1am) Poland v Colombia, Kazan (4am). Tuesday, June 26: Saudi Arabia v Egypt, Volgograd (midnight) Uruguay v Russia, Samara (midnight) Spain v Morocco, Kaliningrad (4am) Iran v Portugal, Saransk (4am). Wednesday, June 27: Denmark v France, Moscow (Luzhniki) (midnight) Australia v Peru Sochi (Midnight) Nigeria v Argentina, Saint Petersburg (4am) Iceland v Croatia, Rostov-on-Don (4am). Thursday, June 28: South Korea v Germany, Kazan (midnight) Mexico v Sweden, Yekaterinburg (midnight) Serbia v Brazil, Moscow (Spartak) (4am) Switzerland v Costa Rica, Nizhni Novgorod (4am). Friday, June 29: Japan v Poland, Volgograd (midnight) Senegal v Colombia, Samara (midnight) England v Belgium, Kaliningrad (4am) Panama v Tunisia, Saransk (4am). Sunday, July 1 Round of 16: Group C winners v Group D runners-up, Kazan (R1) (midnight) Group A winners v Group B runners-up, Sochi (R2) (4am). Monday, July 2 Round of 16: Group B winners v Group A runners-up, Moscow (Luzhniki) (R5) (midnight) Group D winners v Group C runners-up, Nizhni Novgorod (R6) (4am). Tuesday, July 3 Round of 16: Group E winners v Group F runners-up, Samara (R3) (midnight) Group G winners v Group H runners-up, Rostov-on-Don (R4) (4am). Wednesday, July 4 Round of 16: Group F winners v Group E runners-up, Saint Petersburg (R7) (midnight) Group H winners v Group G runners-up, Moscow (Spartak) (R8) (4am). Saturday, July 7 Quarter-finals: Winner of R1 v Winner of R2, Nizhni Novgorod (Q1) (midnight) Winner of R3 v Winner of R4, Kazan (Q2) (4am) Sunday, July 8 Quarter-finals: Winner of R7 v Winner of R8, Samara (Q3) (midnight) Winner of R5 v Winner of R6, Sochi (Q4) (4am) Semifinal 1: Saint Petersburg Stadium, 4am, Wednesday, July 11 Semifinal 2: Luzhiniki Stadium, 4am, Thursday, July 12 Third place playoff Sunday, July 15: Saint Petersburg (midnight) FINAL Monday, July 16: Moscow (Luzhniki) (1am)
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A Day at the Races
Here are the replays of the Group 1's from the weekend (the links once clicked on take you to yourube) ... Kingsford-Smith Cup 1350m Queensland Oaks 2200m