Macca

Hindsight comment as were not saying that at the time ... in fact, you were probably all-in with the pucks then like most others here were Wrong again .Gonzo .. for instance 3 of the first 4 picks in the 2012 draft are busts. It would be easy for me to simply go along with the crowd but the crowd is often wrong The draft is flawed and that is a fact so because it is flawed, that factor has to be taken into account.

Your view is a micro view Gonzo ... mine is a macro viiew and therefore the correct view. Facts are facts ... Stephen Wells for instance went from forever drafting stars to constantly drafting B- players. And draft picks relate to the system that draft picks are related to ... and the system is flawed and always has been. Jummy Toumpas, Cale Morton, Brock McLean and hundreds of others were star, standout juniors. That is why they were top-end draft picks. If you believe tnat it is just the recruiters constantly making rash or poor decisions you are wrong.

Draft picks are severely overrated ... the fact of the matter is that top 5 or top 10 picks are hit and miss. Half of all first round draft picks are busts in terms of expectations. B- or worse and the facts bear that out. And most if not all first round draft picks are standout juniors. So those are the facts. Bearing that in mind we did not pay overs for Lever at all. If you want to believe the bs & spin, you'll believe otherwise. So if we want 'like-for-like' for Hogan, even 2 top-end draft picks doesn't cut it ... the percentage play says 1 of those 2 picks will be a bust and with the other pick, we have to wait at least 3 years for the prospect to become a decent footballer. If we want more than 'like-for-like' we'll need more than 2 top-end draft picks. Too many people including the so-called 'experts' value a draft pick in terms of best-case-scenario. Which is the wrong way to view matters. The best way to view it is if you were the CEO of a company who oversees realistic budgets.

The Premiere Stakes at Randwick is a Group 1 race in terms of quality ... Shoals & Santa Ana Lane can't be discounted in the race too. Both at double figure odds. A bit of give in the track brings both horses into it too The race is like a mini-Everest with 6 of the starters engaged in the Everest a fortnight later. 2 of the other Everest runners are in the Moir Stakes Friday night and with 1 slot left open in the Everest, Viddora & a couple of others have a chance to stake their claim. And Chautauqua has a jump-out scheduled for Friday night as well. It's all happening! I'll be doing my usual Box5 trifecta's whilst hoping that my 4th & 5th picks can run 1st & 2nd! There's value aplenty across the 3 meetings though. 'Get-On' & Sky's 'Form Line' show will be must viewing tomorrow night.

You are doing well in the comp first time up DZ ... in fact, you're in the lead! (along with 11 others) For whatever reason we haven't seen a lot of strong teams on the road against weak opposition so far ... plus, I'm not sure there are many 'pushover' teams about anyway. And a few of the traditionally strong teams are performing below par as well. There were 5 road winners in week 3 but 3 of the 5 were complete outsiders - especially the Bills & Giants. It's a tipsters nightmare at the moment. In other news it looks like we could see a relaxing of the strict new interpretation of 'roughing the passer' ... NFL Competition Committee members reportedly uncomfortable with roughing the passer calls

A host of Group racing this weekend and here are the main 6 features ... all of them good betting races too. There are a few short-priced favourites in 4 of the features but those horses are up against some high quality rivals. Moonee Valley - Moir Stakes (Friday) Randwick - Premiere Stakes Randwick - Flight Stakes Randwick - Epsom Hcp Randwick - Metropolitan Hcp Caulfield - Underwood Stakes (Sunday)

And if it isn't just noise we should play hard-ball. An ambit claim with a view to at least getting a fair deal. Of course, Jesse is contracted for next year and previously this would have been to the club's advantage but not necessarily these days. If Hoges is on the move and a deal can't be done we should look to be adding a year or 2 on to his current contract so as to strengthen our position. Or stitch up a long term deal. It doesn't necessarily become untenable if a move doesn't happen. But I'm not of the belief that he's gone yet but where there's smoke there's fire. But as @Dr. Gonzo mentioned a few posts back, if we're in dialogue with May's management we'd need some decent picks to secure him. We may well have hopped on the front foot but who knows?

Still no one off the mark in the tipping comp ... just the 1 point on offer this week. There's probably a couple of more obvious road chances this week but who knows? It's another tough week.

Well, I can come to terms with things quite quickly once things become quite obvious. The NFL almost certainly won't be doing a back-flip on this new ruling - not this season anyway. So pass-rushers are just going to have to adapt otherwise they run the risk of being ejected ... at least it applies to all the teams so in a way, it's fair. I don't like it but the new ruling is almost certainly here to stay.

The classic example is Peyton ... used in a primarily conservative way out of the pocket by Tony Dungy he ends up at Denver where Elway uses him the same way but with very few deep throws. Result ... 2 SB's and 1 SB victory (at Denver)

Having both is risky though ... I reckon if a QB is capable enough inside the pocket a good coach can then give that QB eniugh help to still win more than lose. Most of Brady & Peyton's passes were/are over very short distances.

There is lot to be said for a top quality QB to just play like Peyton or Brady layz. Both pocket-passers who because they had/have limited scope outside of the pocket, that is where they stay primarily. It is often a little boring but a very effective way of playing the position. Rodgers at Green Bay spends way too much time outside the pocket ... thus, he gets injured a lot.

Ha ha ha! I know he plays for a rival of yours Dappa but Eli was simply great twice in 2 playoff series. He was superb. A big occasion player who has never been much better than B grade in nearly all his regular seasons. In swimming he would be regarded as a negative-splitter ... some players are like that - they need the brightest lights shining on them to perform at their best. Foles was like that too and I hope he gets another shot at that glory. You've got a more than handy back-up to Wentz but I'm betting that the 49ers wouldn't mind him on their roster right now. Apart from tomorrow's game ( Pittsburgh @ Tampa) there's a beauty coming up this Friday - Vikings @ Rams. A big big game for more than a few reasons. And no one scored a point in the comp so we're all still in the Gold medal position!

The reason I thought you could do ok without Wentz was that Foles had had a very good year under Chip Kelly (27 TD's and only 2 interceptions) and Pederson had a chance to tap into that. I thought you could still win a playoff game but Foles went 2 steps further of course. Plus it was late in the year and you only had to win 1 more game to secure the 1 seed with a week off and a home final. With Rodgers twice and now Garoppolo, nothing was secured team wise so writing off the season was the logical conclusion given the strength of both teams otherwise. Plus the Eagles were a far better all round team than what the 49ers are now or what the Packers were in both those years. The circumstances were vastly different although I don't believe anyone could have foretold what Foles went on to do. He was 'Eli-like' for a month!

Have you 3 back-ups ... Mullins, Beathard, Heneghan? Any of them any good layz? Shame about what happened to Garoppolo ... if it's any consolation the Packers season went South last year and in 2013 when Rodgers broke his collarbone in both years. Like no other sport, your season is suddenly over without warning when the QB is such an important fixture in a team and then goes down. Hopefully one of your back-ups can perform.

I've had a small wager on Max tonight - 10.00 seems overs too. Such a dominant season will surely be rewarded with at least a top 3 finish ... would be a popular win amongst the footy public too. Go Big Maxy!

Yep ... and the niners look like losing Garoppolo to an ACL injury. Non contact too. I'm surprised there aren't more ACL injuries on the artificial surfaces that have no give in them. You've got to feel for their fans, all the same. The Buffalo win is an absolute surprise ... and to a lesser extent the Giants & Tennessee wins. Bears leading the NFC North although any of the 4 teams could win that division. I'd like to be confident in questioning the Pats chances but they'll bounce back as they always do.

Just a heads-up for next weekend ... there are no fewer than 17 Group races being held across 3 venues across 3 days (Friday Evening - Moonee Valley, Saturday - Randwick, Sunday - Caulfield) 5 Group 1's including the Moir Stakes, Epsom Hcp, Metropolitan Hcp, Flight Stakes & Underwood Stakes. And the Group 2 Premiere Stakes at Randwick should have 5 'Everest' runners engaged. Brave Smash & Nature Strip should both be running in the Moir Stakes whilst 'Grunt' will clash with Charlie's Appleby's big import 'Blair House' in the Underwood. The 2 Guineas Prelude's are being held on Underwood Stakes day as well. That's on top of 2 Grand Finals in the 2 biggest codes in the Country being played on the same weekend. That's what you call a big weekend in sport.

Yeah they've all got to be road teams Gonzo and the Vikes & KC are at home. If you don't get this message in time I wouldn't be too concerned ... we're all still sitting on zero points and tomorrow's games are tough.

Osborne was up against some very good types Wadda ... Jungle Cat, Home of the Brave, Land of Plenty, Showtime, Peaceful State etc. It was an authentic Group 1 field and Osborne Bulls was first time up in a Group race (albeit handicap conditions) Carrying only 55 kgs it had a real chance and it was only beaten by 1.3 lengths - it wasn't far away. The winner (Jungle Cat) looked all class though. Definitely one to follow as it can obviously carry weight. It's performances in Dubai certainly stacked up.

9 lots of tips in so far ... a shout-out reminder to @titan_uranus @Dr. Gonzo & @DeeSpencer Sports IIlustrated ( MMQB) Week 3 Preview (Andy Benoit) And if you want to view the following videos you'll have to follow the links to youtube.

A few standout's out of yesterday's racing ... The Autumn Sun stormed home to win the 'Golden Rose' in commanding fashion ... now a 2.80 favourite for the Caulfield Guineas with daylight to the rest The Irish import Jungle Cat stole the show in the 'Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes' ... ran 01.22.31 for the 1400m @ Caulfield which is a very slick time at that course. Was paying way overs too. Next up is the 'Toorak Hcp' according to the trainer. Looked very impressive yesterday carrying the big weight. Night's Watch won very well and is now guaranteed a start in the 'Caulfield Cup' (8-1 third favourite) but will run a week earlier apparently in the G1 Caulfield Stakes over 2000m ($1Million) We snagged 1 winner from 4 out of our best bets yesterday but also picked up a 2nd & a 3rd whilst our 4th pick came 5th. Ellicazoom looked a winner but didn't quite finish off and Sin To Win had every chance but is one to follow. Night's Watch was our winner. Osborne Bulls met up with some very classy types but still ran a close-up 5th. Best Bet Strike Rate 28: 8 - 5 - 5 Australian Group & Listed Races Watch Night's Watch win the 'Naturalism Stakes' here And watch Jungle Cat win the 'Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes' here

The feature races clash with the footy but not to worry ... I'm recording all the racing and will just keep checking my balance at Laddies. Hopefully a win/win/win/win etc etc with the Demons taking absolute precedence.

3 best bets in ... Caulfield Race 7 No.10 Night's Watch $2.90 (was 3.90) Caulfield Race 9 Number 2 Ellicazoom $4.60 Caulfield Race 8 No 4 Osborne Bulls $6.50 Combined odds 85-1 (100-1 Boosted) Good luck all and Go The Mighty Demons

With the Tigers bet done and dusted here are the remaining 6 best bets ... Saturday Midnight EPL Match Score +2.5 Goals & Manchester United Win ($2.45) vs Wolves Sunday 11pm Ligue 1 (French League) Rennes vs PSG Win & Match Score +2.5 Goals ($1.87) EPL Sunday @02:30 Brighton v Tottenham. Tottenham Win $1.75 EPL Sunday @22.30 West Ham v Chelsea Chelsea Win/Over 2.5 goals match total $2.15 West Coast v Melbourne either side u/15.5 pts $2.55 Caulfield Race 8 No. 4 Osborne Bulls Plc $2.40 105-1 but with 'Odds boosted' that comes to about 120-1. Good luck all and Go The Mighty Demons!