Macca

Ah well, Chautauqua has had a magnificent career. He'll have a nice retirement and the horse might even be used as a clerk-of-the-course horse down the track - there's an idea. Unless they keep trying to get the horse to run. Maybe Honkers?

C'mon Chautauqua! Jump!

Ha! Are you laying odds Clint? Apparently the horse arrived at the course and is displaying a calm manner ... whatever that means, who knows?

And now 'I Am A Star greets the judge ... very impressive. Wasn't even going to have a bet in the first 2 races but have picked up a trifecta & a F4. Smallish dividends but I'll take the wins. Plus, I'm alive in the quaddie. Your multi bet is looking good @Dee Zephyr ... I've got both of your choices going as well so here's hoping.

Ended up taking an early quaddie @Dee Zephyr which is unusual for me but Sunset Watch gets the first leg up. I've included 2 of your 3 remaining choices as well as a couple of spec chances. I've targeted races 3, 5, 6 & 7 for some trifecta action. The Valley is good Friday night entertainment with the footy over & done with.

Good luck with the 4 pick DZ ... I haven't looked at the first 2 races but 'I Am A Star' is a very good horse. 'Trap For Fools' loves the Valley and should win. In fact, I reckon if Sunset Watch salutes, you'll get the 4.

My 2 Best Bets Serie A (Italian League) 2.00am Sunday $2.80 Juventus Win & Match Score +2.5 Goals vs Napoli EPL Saturday Midnight $1.95 Arsenal Win & Match Score +2.5 Goals vs Watford That gives us 30-1 for the 4 DZ without BM's input and without our European Correspondent's input ... haven't applied odds boost either.

Weir got 1st, 2nd & 4th in the Benalla Cup ... missed on Lord Fandango of course but thems the breaks. Went for a bit of value so nothing ventured, nothing gained. I will be watching the DK Weir horses in the feature races in the bush over the Spring.

My tips ... Philadelphia, Seattle, KC

An ex-player on Sportscenter was saying that their defense has a few weaknesses - more so in the secondary but that might be injury related. But all the teams get injuries so it is not a singular reason - unless that injury is to a gun QB where the back-up is way below ordinary. The Rams will now be the hunted though so they will get dissected by all ... but having a wise-head like Wade Phillips to support their young coach is an excellent situation for them. They are the team to beat in the NFC, that much is true

Yeah, top class game between 2 very good teams Dappa. You've got to wonder how the Vikings could possibly lose that badly at home to the Bills? Costly loss as next up for Minnesota is at the Eagles. And if one of the NFC North teams can get on a roll then the Vikings could easily be playing catch-up for the season. Mind you, I don't believe that the Packers, Lions or the Bears are all that great. But you never know. As for the Rams, who's gonna stop 'em? Their defense gave up points but their offense is supreme with Goff at the helm. And the Vikes were always likely to score with their good offense.

Just a box5 DZ ... nothing jumps out at me although the favourite 'Mr Garcia' has strong claims. I'm hoping that a couple of my 'value' runners can beat it home. With these Country cups it's more a matter of looking for the horses that might have been set for the race ... and we know that Weir targets these races.

Excellent opening drive by the Vikes Game-on by the looks of it

The wonders of the internet hey Wadda! One of your favourites 'Voodoo Lad' is out of the Moir Stakes tonight .... it is still a crack field though with any number of chances including the boom sprinter 'Nature Strip' Been having a bit of luck with the Country Cups this year so I may have a bit of a go at the Benalla Cup this afternoon. Weir sets his horses for these Cups and he's got 3 of the 11 runners engaged today.

Nice pick Wadda ... the Premiere Stakes will probably be upgraded to Group 1 status soon enough too. 2 weeks out from the 'Everest', many of the sprinters from the Everest will continue to contest the $500k race. Very classy field as it was last year when 'In Her Time' won. The racing is going to be great on the weekend ... really looking forward to it. My Best Bet is in the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield on Sunday Caulfield Race 8 No.9 Grunt $3.40

A new page so here are the games again ... Public holiday in Victoria tomorrow so we locals get a chance to watch the Vikes @ Rams game live. Ideal. Vikings are at Philadelphia next week so they'll need to get a move on after dropping a game to the Bills at home. Only the 1 point on offer for 3 correct 'Road' winners this week so good luck all.

Fair enough Gonzo although I believe that many equate a top 5 pick as a top player (A grade or at least B+) and if that doesn't eventuate they will blame the recruiter, the club and then the player himself. And then bang on about who should have been picked instead. It has to be remembered that these high school age kids are not the finished product by any means and that many of these prospects never progress much past their last junior year (Morton, Toumpas, Cook, Gysberts etc) So therefore, the draft and the draft picks attached is a flawed concept in at least some respects. True value? A matter of opinion but I have outlined my reasoning in previous posts. Busts happen and they happen a lot ... you can get on a good run, a bad run, a middling or indifferent run. We have seen our fair share of busts so hopefully we continue the good run that we're having of late (Brayshaw, Petracca, Salem, Oliver et al) And there's now a real chance that we could be a major player at the top end of the draft again. Who would have thought?

Trust your judgement Gonzo so things might have improved somewhat although ... I believe a bigger sample size at least 5 years on is more applicable. I started a thread in late 2014 outlining and highlighting 10 drafts and concentrating on the top 5 picks ... 10 Years of Drafting (2000 - 2009) Within that link exposed a number of myths and some absolute truth's as well. My summation is that unless the recruiters are generally incompetent right across the board, there has to be a system problem. We need to look further than our own club too. A macro view is required. Appreciate your research though and it is food for thought. I want way overs for Hogan as I absolutely rate the bloke ... he's had rotten run with injuries and family tragedies but at some stage that time will pass and he'll be fit, firing and ready to go.

The reported yearly offer ($1.2Million?) ups the ante even further (for us) Sure, we can win without him but if you are in a position of strength you do not give an inch.

I reckon a few here are undervaluing Hogan a bit too. The club is hopefully valueing Hogan as a valuable player who we don't want to lose. And that value is that he is injury free from here on in and can play forward, back and in the middle in a topline fashion. As a utility he is right up there. So if you want him pay up.

2 early picks could equal 1 bust whilst the other pick could take 3-5 years to bear fruit. I prefer to keep things real and I do not want the club to lose out

My view on how flawed drafting can be came before we ever had a draft and also not on what does consistently happen in the States. The true value for Hogan is more like 3 x top 10 picks based on those flaws if the desire is to win-out on the deal. Who wanrs to lose out? Get everything we can and then some.

And I am amused as well ... that is why I argue that picks are overvalued from a macro & micro point of view We are in agreeance except I reckon there is a true value attached if analysing the flaws

It is flawed and you've admitted that so you then have to factor in the flaws as I have done. I stand by my comment tbat draft picks are overvalued. The only upside to that is that if every club overvalues a draft pick then I suppose it is fair all round Doesn't make it right though.

In effecr you are still arguing that a pick has value if we go all out to get certain picks for Oliver & Weideman. And by the way, Weideman is a top 10 pick so the expectations from most fans is top player ... and that may or may not happen. And we had to move to pick 3 to get Oliver ... and Oliver might have been a bust if we look at the facts & data thst the draft spits out. There is a lot of confirmation bias that suits but often only when that confirmation bias is a positive.