Macca

Kopi Luwak is my 2nd pick D77 but at this stage it's paying around $2 where as Don't Give A Damn is good value at about $4. I didn't necessarily see it as the standout horse but the race analysis has it as the standout horse. Both horses have drawn good barriers. By the way, Ace High has drawn the No.1 barrier. There's a reasonable field in the Scenic Blast Stakes at Ascot later on Saturday. For me it's more of a trifecta race.

I'm in 2 minds with the Expressway Stakes ... I keep looking at Ace High thinking it will fight it right out to the finish and Goodfella could be flashing home. As a trifecta race - definitely. Best Bet - maybe someone else can see the horse to pick. I like a few others at Rosehill but again, it's early doors and would like to see all the fixed odds. I'm looking at 1 best bet out of these 4 possible picks ... I'm leaning towards 'Don't Give A Damn. Let me know what you think fellas. Race 1 No.2 ... From Within Race 5 No.12 ... Kopi Luwak Race 6 No.9 ..... Bye See Race 9 No.8 ..... Don't Give a Damn All the Rosehill Races - Feb 3rd The W J Adams Stakes & the Manfred Stakes at Caulfield both have interesting fields.

I like Tosen Stardom although Thronum won the lead-up race last Friday night (The Australia Stakes) ... Mr Sneaky ran 2nd and Brave Smash needed the run (apparently) and ran 5th. I was impressed with the run of Tshahitsi on Saturday but it looks like the horse has been withdrawn. Hartnell & Johannes Vermeer have real claims too. And then there's Humidor and a few others! It's a multiple trifecta race for mine. I've had a bit of a look at the Expressway Stakes (the Ace High race) and 'Goodfella' is at good odds (9-1) .. the horse ran a 1.5 length 2nd to an ultra impressive Pierata in the Gold Coast Guineas. Race time 1:21.0 for the 1400m. Early doors but it might be a go for the place although I reckon it can win. Australian Group & Listed Races

Here's the annual Super Bowl Prop Bets Podcast with Bill Simmons & Cousin Sal The podcast starts off with a story about a very interesting encounter that Bill Simmons had earlier in the week and they then discuss many of the 140 prob bets. I haven't listened to the majority of the podcast yet but it's usually good for a laugh.

Well, a lot will tune in and have a good look Gonzo ... there's very little sport on that weekend so the target audience could be quite high. The under 35's is where I think a bit of the support will come from (at least initially) People shouldn't read into my comments as being pro AFLX ... my main interest surrounds what comes of it and whether we're able to see a number of the attributes of the sport that are no longer always visible during the normal season proper. As always, I have an open mind on anything new and will allow my mind to be made up on what I witness. The cynics will see playing on a rectangular field as a bit of a gimmick but if the sport was ever going to be at all popular overseas then this form of the game is probably the only way. @bandicoot said as much earlier in the thread. I'm probably going to go along on the night. At worst it will probably be a fun night with loads of action.

Yes, well done @Wadda We Sing and to those who you contacted. We'll get to 100 pages before you know it ... especially with the best bet/tipping comp being in operation. I reckon a good number of regular contributors would be 8 - 12. The more the merrier really. We may not get to that number but we've now got a few things in place to attract some more punters. Had a sneak peek at the first big Group 1 of the Autumn (Details - The C F Orr Stakes) and there's any number of familiar names entered. It's a really good field.

Ha ha ha! Playing cricket we would change the tea break time for the Caulfield Cup. 22 flanneled fools and an umpire hovering around the Sanyo transistor. Back in those days everyone had a bet.

Back in the day when I was a W & P punter I'd sometimes go 10 the Win & 20 the Place (that sort of ratio) ... 'Ace High likes to lead and we know it boxes on extremely well. And the Caulfield straight isn't overly long. Needs a decent barrier draw, all the same.

Well I played cricket for over 30 years (on a Sat arvo) so I never used to have the opportunity to go to the Spring Carnival. During the winter I was either playing footy on a Saturday or I went and watched the Demons play on a Saturday - so the races missed out then too. The transistor ruled! (the tranny) That all changed when I stopped playing cricket and when the Demons started playing predominantly on Sunday's (from when Joe Gutnick was Pres?) ... which happened at the same time. So I've got used to having my Saturday arvo's free for the races. Making up for lost time so to speak. But I'm with you though Wadda - footy every week on a Saturday with all the scores from the other grounds was great. I'm glad I lived in that era. You'd go and see a band afterwards whilst Sunday's was nearly always playing golf with a hangover!

'Ace High' has been entered for the Expressway Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday ... 1200m only though so it might be a bit short. However, it often pays to keep a lookout for these class horses dropping back in distance ... the horse has been ridden forward for a lot of its races.

Well that's the crux of it D77 ... Saturday afternoon AFL is often filled with ordinary match-ups and there's no AFL on free-to-air Saturday afternoons anyway. Because of that, people look for other things to do or watch. Rugby League & Super Rugby avoids Saturday afternoons so what's left? The Thoroughbreds or local sport.

Well I'm looking forward to AFLX (Seriously) The Anti-Congestion Football League? Peering into my crystal ball this is what I foresee ... The games will be open, fast, free-flowing affairs with players able to run and bounce the ball. There will be almost zero congestion which will make the game far easier to officiate. If you do like congested footy, you may not like this version of the sport. Long kicks will be in vogue - but often for the receiving players to run on to. The 10 pointer also encourages long kicks. The wings (just like it used to be in Soccer/Aussie Rules) will be utilised by actual wingmen. The high-marking forward could return and we will see numerous 1 on 1 contests. Numbers at the contest, create a stoppage/win the stoppage won't be happening either. The games will be exciting and will remind viewers and spectators of how our once great game used to be played - there will be comments along the lines of ... "Why can't we see this sort of footy when the real stuff happens" (again, think of all the congestion we now have to put up with) Because the games have been cleverly designed for a rectangular field, it gives a great chance for the sport to be grown overseas. I reckon it's a great initiative - nothing ventured, nothing gained. I've been at the league to fix the real stuff so that it's at least watchable again but this initiative will at least give us a glimpse of what can be. It fits my narrative. If it works and becomes really popular, the sky is the limit. Both in America & in Europe there are hundreds of large capacity stadiums with rectangular fields. In fact, this version of footy can be taken anywhere in the world (if it works) As a means to an end, this version of the sport may help fix the issues that I see in the main version of the sport ... that's how I will be viewing the exercise.

It's a terrific go-to listing isn't it! Whilst the racing calendar might seem like a chaotic schedule to non-aficionados, that link to all the Group races makes sense of it all. I especially like the write-ups for the Group 1's or Group 2's where it's mentioned how the acceptors arrived at those races via certain lead-up races. That stuff helped me at the Ascot Carnival. I'll try and remember to copy & paste the link every time we go to a new page. It's going to be quite a challenge coming up with our 'best bets' ... I've done that sort of thing with mates before putting a trifecta/first 4 together but not so much with multi betting. I might end up trying to find something at Rosehill (early doors) So where does everyone have the most luck/best results? I much prefer Flemington/Randwick/Rosehill but I've had a few decent collects at Caulfield/Moonee Valley. I like Ascot (WA) but have only had sporadic bets at Eagle Farm/Doomben/Morphettville. But because the Demons rarely ever play on a Saturday arvo (2 games this season) the Qld & SA carnivals could well be front & centre this time around. Sha Tin for the big events is becoming a favourite too (especially when they race there on a Sunday) And the big races from Europe have great appeal - I kinda like the thought of having a trifecta or 2 in those big European races and then waking up on a Sunday morning with a healthier account!

Yep, spot on. That race (The Everest) has just been accepted as part of the landscape straight off. With that sort of money on offer it's bound to attract the connections of a number of the International horses (including a few that ran at Sha Tin today) Anyway, I posted up the following link (see below) a couple of months ago but here it is again ... click on any of the races for a summary and a write-up of how each of the races are often stepping stones to the other bigger races. There's actually a bit on next weekend Wadda ... a prelude of better things to come. . Australian Group & Listed Races

I was testing the water a bit on this thread mentioning Mr Stunning & Werther. I doubt anyone was going to back Mr Stunning at those prohibitive odds but Werther was worth a gamble. Mind you, the TAB didn't have the races from Sha Tin up until this morning and they didn't offer any fixed odds either - typical. Another point on the 'Best Bet' ... if I really like any of the choices I'm going to try and say as much. That way, we can extra opinions on a horses chances if we end up with 5 - 8 choices and want to narrow it down.

It's a system that can give constant returns and the odd decent return (Small field/Group 1) Mr Stunning needed to run out of a place for a good dividend. I usually like to go 3-5-5 or 2-6-6 when there's a hot favourite involved. Or just avoid the race altogether. Both feature races were keenly contested and Werther raced well for 3rd in the Stewards Cup (paid 3.30 - that's ok in a multi) By the way, in the sprint race the trainer was in charge of the first 3 placegetters so maybe it was time for the 'Pin' to win! Hmmmmmm - That's an old 'Hayes' play (through the generations) 2 of the horses to watch out for (down the track) from the 2 Group 1 races are ''Beat the Clock' & 'Fifty Fifty'. Both were stepping up to Group 1 , both placed and were running home very well. Anyway, doubling one's outlay is never a bad thing D77! And with regards to our best bets I'll try and post up some links to some of the quaddie races sometime during the week - there's 3 or 4 decent races (SW / WFA) next weekend that are worth a look at. The weekend after that it all begins in earnest!

It's my reckoning that the horse will run 3 races in Sydney during the Autumn Carnival and then head off to Europe to contest those 3 races it has been possibly earmarked for. 4 races in either hemisphere is too many if that's the plan. After that they'll either retire the horse or it might possibly run in one more Cox Plate. It's either/or but I favour the former argument. Which would be a shame because if it could win a 4th Cox Plate it would be a fantastic thing to happen.

My first Cup Day in attendance was way back in 1976 - pelted down all day but I backed the winner (Van Der Hum) ... so crowded that we didn't even see the race. Those were the days! Anyway, it would have to be a super horse to win the Melbourne Cup 4 times. And it would probably have to win the race as a 3yo to have any chance. You never know, it's a real long shot but it may happen. Winx could win the Cox Plate for a 4th time (that would be a record?) but I'm not sure it will ever contest the race again. Think I'm right in saying that Winx is a 6 year old (right now) so it would be a 7 year old next Spring.

Winx is possibly more of a mile horse at it's optimum best these days Wadda - of course, it often brains them at 2000m but perhaps not always as convincingly as it once did (it just lasted in last year's Cox Plate) The connections of Winx have earmarked 3 races in Europe which it may contest (if it goes over there) - 2 are over the 1600m & only 1 is over the 2000m. Think I'm right in saying that Makybe Diva nearly won an Orr Stakes (1400m) yet we all know how good the horse was as a stayer. The great 1600m horses can also be great at 1400m ... but all the way down to 1200m? Maybe. But we are talking about Winx and the Everest will carry prizemoney of $12Million this year (man, that's a lot of money) Manikato was a great mile horse but would often drop down to 1200m and win.

Great idea D77 - I'm all in. The tipping comp in the NFL thread does help maintain interest (and that was the original purpose) It does work. We could also just simply use our 'Best Bet' as our pick in the tipping comp - serves 2 purposes that way. 3-2-1 as you indicated but what happens if we nominate our best bet for the place only? (which I might be apt to do) To avoid any sorts of issues, the tip (in a tipping comp) should have to be for the win. The key to a tipping comp is to keep it as simple as possible - you don't ever want to be spending too much time deciphering too much information. Btw, my reckoning on a place bet is that I have to genuinely believe that the horse can win as well. 'Werther' in today's Stewards Cup at Sha Tin is a case in point.

Well ... it's a strange thing about the smaller pools (as long as they're not too small) - sometimes the exotic dividends are higher than you'd calculate. Certain horses that are decent can be passed over in smaller pools. Especially in the group races overseas there are some very good horses that blow out in the odds (W & P) so those same horses may also often not get included in the exotics. By the same token the popular combo's can pay a bit less (because most are on them?) I obviously bank on best case scenario with my multiples whilst at the same time not ignoring the popular combo's - that largely explains why I often just get money back or a bit more or less. There's a bit of money wagered at Sha Tin as a general rule - the money comes late though. Not sure on Europe as I have historically only ever had the odd bet there (that may change this year ) I only ever bet at the TAB and they don't often cover the races from Japan. We've got the triple crown from the States to consider as well - I love those 3 races.

If you don't hear back from the OP you could ask the mods, Wadda. Anyway, I'm off to get on at Sha Tin. The Centenary Sprint Cup looks to be 'Mr Stunning's to lose. Should win and the early markets reflect that. By contrast The Stewards Cup is a wide open affair where any number of horses can feature - should be a great race. The prizemoney on offer in both races is huge. Hugh Bowman (who rode at Warwick Farm on Friday!) is on a Werther in the Stewards Cup (it is at good odds and a definite chance) whilst Nash Rawiller is on Mr Stunning. Zac Purton & Brett Prebble are both riding today at HK as well. The free-to-air racing channel is covering the event. For me the Group 1 racing is like watching the big teams in world sport go at each other - but for high interest you've got to at least have a small wager on the Group 1's

'A Day at the Races' has a friendly feel to it ... and it almost says to people to not take things too seriously. Bet with expendable income only has always been my motto as well as always drink responsibly and try not to smoke. We can have a lot of fun here and during our winter I fully intend to introduce (or reintroduce) people to the wonderful racing on offer in Europe. There are often 2 or 3 Group 1 races every week where we see the best of the best (the creme de la creme!) Hopefully the free-to-air racing channel covers these big events but there's always youtube (the big races from Europe are often posted up a few hours later) So as the Autumn carnival finishes here we've got the choice of the Queensland & South Australian carnivals or the big races across Europe. Which leads us into the Spring Carnival again and then Ascot/Magic Millions. It never stops!

People will know what it means and it's a bit different ... I'll vote for it but the majority rules. Good idea Wadda ... there's no rush. And in the meantime we can absolutely decide on a name for the horse racing thread. A general sports betting thread is a good idea as well - I'd contribute my 2 cents worth with regards to the NBA or the NFL. You've got my vote to start up both threads (unless we can change the name of this thread)

What can be an issue if we're not specific is that people can start talking about other stuff that doesn't appeal. Personally I would scroll straight past any chatter about Greyhound racing, fantasy sports of any description, betting against the Demons etc etc. Leave me right out of that stuff. After reading what @binman had to say above we definitely need a new thread ... the name of this one leads to people just ignoring because they probably see it as irrelevant. So @Wadda We Sing ... you kick it off mate if everyone agrees. We just need a name - I've suggested my 2 ('The Horse Racing Thread' or 'All Things Horse Racing') but I'm not completely sold on either. 'A Day at the Races' ... 'Lose Your Shirt' ... 'It's a Mug's Game' ha ha