Macca

Good afternoon ... @Wadda We Sing, @Demon77 In a parlay bet with the TAB a horses odds would reduce if there were a lot of scratchings as you're getting paid tote odds. I'm not defending the TAB as I'm in agreement that the fixed odds shouldn't alter once you've laid that bet. As far as I can make out the fixed Sportsbet odds offered don't change once you've laid your bet but I could be wrong on that - of course, all their odds are never tote odds but the fixed odds can vary depending on the time of day or the day in question (just like it does at the TAB) I joined up at Sportsbet in 5 minutes although the process takes 2 or 3 days to be verified/approved. Deposits can be bank transfers/cards/paypal and withdrawn money can be deposited in your bank account. All online of course. I'm not a spokesperson for Sportsbet by the way, other online betting companies could be way better and I may well explore those options as well ... Sportsbet.com

I'm wondering if Sportsbet have the same sort of one-sided rules? I joined up tonight just to see what they are like. I've got a few mates that gave up on the TAB long ago ... they've gone to Sportsbet as well as Ladbrokes & William Hill etc. Because I only ever bet online I'm no longer rusted on to the TAB and after hearing your story & Wadda's story I'll probably be making the switch sooner rather than later. I'm constantly being told that the odds are better elsewhere anyway.

That is an ordinary outcome Wadda ... when a horse is scratched from a multi we're left with the same bet minus that leg. Which often defeats the purpose of having that multi in the first place. We take our chances on the early odds knowing that can happen. So the odds shouldn't change just because other horses are scratched - the TAB should wear that. It's just typical. It would have been the 'Show A Star' odds by the looks of it as that race ended up having only a 5 horse field. Still, I'm with you ... they've got some nerve short changing the payout on a fixed odds multi. Related are the fixed odds themselves ... both last weekend and this weekend the odds on a number of our selections started reducing from Thursday evening onwards. I'm going to continue to go early with my best bet for the reasons outlined above - and then hope like hell there aren't any mass scratchings from the race the best bet is applied to!

There might be a few goals in this Spurs/Gunners clash ... big crowd too (close on 90,000 apparently) The game is on SBS in case you weren't aware.

I'm not sure that Winx would have been troubled today if she had run in the C F Orr Stakes. The race time was not overly quick (somewhere in the 1:24's?) but regardless, the mare would have blitzed them in the straight anyway. But this article from Racenet.com sets the scene for Hartnell to take on Winx in the G1 1600m Chipping Norton (March 3rd) Winx versus Hartnell? Bring it on! Australian Group & Listed Races

Speaking of which I've put on a sports multi for tonight/overnight but this time I've used the same way of thinking that we're exploring with the horses. Rather than looking for a massive payout like I normally do I've looked for a total dividend in the 25 -1 to 30-1 area with an absolute maximum of 6 legs. I've also got a saver Trifecta going at Sha Tin later (seeing you're the Caulfield Correspondent am I the Hong Kong Wizard? ha ha) I'm thinking up some nicknames for @binman & @Demon77 - The Morphettville Marauder? The Flemington Forecaster? Good luck with the last leg of your multi Wadda.

There's too much information to take in Wadda ... that's why this thread is ultra helpful. We're still in the very early stages - as time goes on the info swapped about will take on more significance. Anyway, 'Show A Star' salutes so that's the treble (within the 4 pick) I've doubled my outlay by utilising the saver multi's and I hope you blokes got a collect as well. 3 from 4 is always going to show a good return so the system held up (at least that's the way I'm approaching it) Great win by Hartnell in the Orr Stakes too - what a class act that horse is. A blanket finish though, all the same. My pick (Dollar for Dollar) just couldn't get a clear run at them.

Why didn't they tell us that stuff a few days ago? ha ha

The winner far too good there ... no prizes for 2nd. I've still got Show A Star in a couple of 'saver' multi's so all is not lost.

The great bit is that we're not flying solo with this multi idea ... the team aspect makes it slightly less nerve-racking. But nevertheless, it's still nerve-racking! I completely forgot that I had a small trifecta going in Gailo Chop race - small dividend but a win is a win.

Good start to the day with Gailo Chop (well done @Wadda We Sing)... as per usual I completely ignored the first few races at Caul & the Farm. Too hard.

I had a strong feeling you'd go with Itz Invincible binman ... I figured that you'd either run out of races in Melb or Syd to find a standout or you'd do a quick peruse of the races at Morphettville anyway. So last night I had a look at the races at Morphettville and I could only find 1 absolute standout - Itz Invincible. lol. So Gents, here are the 4 standout best bets ... Caulfield Race 4 No 1 Gailo Chop (Wadda) Morphettville Race 5 No 1 Itz Invincible (binman) Warwick Farm Race 7 No 2 Eqyptian Symbol (Macca) Warwick Farm Race 8 No 4 Show A Star (Demon 77) Good luck with those 4 fellas and good punting to all!

Wow ... that's a lot of work binman. So out of the 4 best bets that you've highlighted, have you got 1 of them as your absolute standout? It can't be a horse in a race which has been picked already. These are the best bets so far Caulfield Race 4 No 1 Gailo Chop (Wadda) Warwick Farm Race 7 No 2 Eqyptian Symbol (Macca) Warwick Farm Race 8 No 4 Show A Star (Demon 77)

Yep ... that comes under the area of a decent system. It has to be a given - even for someone like Rodgers. The other big news is McDaniels turning down the Colts job and deciding to stay at New England. More fuel on the fire that the Belichick/Kraft/Brady alliance may not be rock-solid.

Look at all the QB's that have blossomed away from Fisher ... Bradshaw, Keenum & Foles. And Kelly seemed a bit rigid too - too hyper for me. That stuff wears thin after a while. And Fisher was useless (ask Gorg) The bloke in charge can make or break a player ... I could point at a thousand examples but you'll already know about those instances. In sport, I don't believe you can fake great. In the right system and playing under the right sort of coach other players like Foles can prosper. Foles strikes me as someone who has learned how to handle pressure. If Foles does go elsewhere he'll need to choose wisely - he'll need a good system and a good coach. Most QB's need that though.

I like the 1400m races Wadda because of the previous times made by the various horses and the comparisons that I can therefore make. I also look for horses that have previously finished off their 1200m races well too - as well as those that race well but falter a bit towards the end of their 1600m races. And then there's the weights carried. The Classic mile is probably my favourite though ... but the form always makes a lot more sense if the race in question is WFA or at set weights. The classic distance (2000m) appeals for all sorts of reasons though. Group 1 at WFA is the pinnacle at that distance. Ditto for the mile and a half. The sprint races and the form attached to those races is often easier to identify (1000m, 1100m & 1200m) but I prefer the smaller fields in those races (unless the sprint racing is held on the straight at Flemington)

How about finding out that Foles called that trick play? Remarkable. That'll add some extra dollars. Bottom line is that NFL fans want to see the bloke play - next year. Sitting on the sidelines would be such an anti-climax. It's such a difficult situation ... if I was an Eagles fan I would not want him going anywhere. Anyway, here's a song performed by a couple of Philadelphia locals that is quite fitting - all these years later

Apart from our 3 best bets so far (Gailo Chop, Egyptian Symbol & Show A Star) we've also made mention of 3 other horses that we fancy to feature ... Caulfield Race 5 No. 6 Smart Coupe $8 (Wadda) Caulfield Race 6 No. 1 Rich Charm $8 (Demon77) Warwick Farm Race 6 No.2 Goodfella $9 (Macca) That's not a bad 'Spec' multi ... 575-1 All 3 have decent form and are realistic chances. Anyway, here's another look at last year's C F Orr Stakes ...

Saved for the Futurity Stakes in 2 weeks time? Also over the 1400m ... which seems to be the ideal distance for the horse. The race (The C F Orr Stakes) is a good betting race all the same ... a number of the fancied horses have drawn out wide which makes the race even more competitive. I've at least narrowed it down to 6 horses now but finding 2 or 3 clear-cut winning chances (for a multiple trifecta) out of those 6 is proving difficult. I can see a couple of decent dividends coming up though (Tri & First 4)

'Show A Star' was the first horse I had picked out as my best bet D77! ... then superceded by 'Egyptian Symbol' but only just. I also had 'Nature Strip' picked out but was concerned about the hot favourite 'She Will Reign' ... in the end Nature Strip was scratched so my mind was made up.

Well yeah ... there's a fair bit of depth in the race and that may be the reason. Rich Charm's last run was as good as it gets in terms of the time run and the fact that it was in a Group 2 race (and it beat Missrock) And, it's got a very good strike rate ... it is up a few kilos from its previous 3 runs but before that won over 1200m carrying 59 & 60.5kgs. I was in the same quandary with Goodfella and at one stage was going to nominate Goodfella as my best bet - for the place only though. But I baulked at doing that as 1 scratching would have meant no 3rd dividend.

I should be able to remember to copy & paste it up Wadda ... that will come with routine. For instance, I start perusing the form online on a Wednesday night (using racenet.com mainly) and then will have something picked out by Friday at the latest. And as for others joining in ... I'm interested to see where the thread takes us - I've always encouraged an inclusive attitude rather than exclusive one. Punters can often prefer to fly solo but again, I've always favoured a joint input - mainly because I'm prone to missing stuff and I'm not smart enough to see everything anyway (plus, there's the available time aspect)

I was including the 4 pick multi Wadda much as I would a 5 pick multi if we get another joining in. Of course, it gets complicated then but my attitude is the more, the merrier and we should be able to sort it all out as individuals. The important thing is getting the best bets posted up ... we'll know a lot of thought has gone into the picks and also, much as what happened last week and this week already, we may well be able to see the same value in a best bet posted by someone else (on closer inspection) Take your Gailo Chop pick as an example ... I hadn't looked at that race yet as I had it marked as a trifecta race which I was going to look at on Friday night or Saturday morning. So I then looked at the race closely and then saw what you could see. Affirmation. And seeing we're on a new page ... Australian Group & Listed Races

And with @binman entering in with a best bet that will give us for 4 best bets ... I anticipated that happening so there's an option of four 3 pick multi's within the 4 pick multi. Much like the 3 doubles within the 3 pick multi. Again, it's totally optional as is the compulsion to take out a multi at all. The theory behind the concept is that if you look at enough of the different races properly, one horse will eventually jump out at you (figuratively speaking of course!) The combined input is a way of combining all our standout best bets. And because we're posting up a tip that others can benefit from, you'll probably work harder at finding that one best bet. You don't want to miss with a pick.

I mentioned here before that there are 3 potential 'Doubles' within the 3 pick multi ... It's kinda hedging the bet but if the 3 get up like it did last week you get the double 3 times as well. That's how I'm going to approach the system ... depending on how much you lay on, you can double or triple your total outlay with just a double getting up. And if all 3 get up you've had a good day.