Macca

Another tough race ... @Demon77 2 on top (Brave Song & Kementari) are both in with a real chance. And Gailo Chop is an excellent choice Wadda ... a real Group level performer (often at Group 1) As you intimated, against this lot it matches up very well. As for 'Smart Coupe' ... it's run some very good times carrying 55. And the bloke who trains the horse (Ellerton) is a favourite trainer of an acquaintance who follows a lot of his horses.

Great minds D77 (or something like that) Goodfella was taken out of the Expressway Stakes for the Eskimo Prince Stakes (Race 6 Warwick Farm) ... at 9-1 it's good each way odds (as long as there aren't any scratchings in the 8 horse field) Interesting that both Goodfella & Egyptian Symbol both raced last time at the Magic Millions (and raced well) so they'll be freshened up.

I might be tempted to look at the horses that are racing well now Wadda ... Tshahisti, Thronum & Dollar for Dollar. It's a tough race to find a winner though and I've got about 7 or 8 horses that I reckon can be in the finish. I've got to find a way to reduce that number down to 5 or 6 and then get the right configuration for a trifecta. The Weir Horse (Brave Smash) could be right in this as well as the top 3 (Hartnell, Black Heart Bart & Tosen Stardom) C F Orr Stakes

My 'Best Bet' ... Warwick Farm Race 7 No.2 Egyptian Symbol to win (current fixed odds 3.40) It's last start was the 973k Magic Millions Sprint over 1200m where it ran 3rd to the very class 'Viddora' (1:08.69) Before that won well at Rosehill on a Heavy 8. Meets this lot with SW + P's in a small field. The jockey's record on the horse is good as well.

Well they race on turf up there Wadda ... you might be thinking of Singapore maybe? Looks like grass to me anyway The 1400m races at Sha Tin are just pure sprint races from what I can see ... I don't see horses getting to the front and putting on the brakes but if that does ever happen the other horses just scoot on by. The 1600m races are much the same although not always - times in the 1:33's or 1:34's are regular occurrences in the mile races (often carrying WFA type weight) Anyway, In that trifecta race (Race replay - Race 7 Sha Tin 04/02/18) the odds on favourite won and I had the 3rd horse to win as well ... but it was the 2nd horse at big odds that boosted up the dividend. Started at 35-1 but it had decent form and it's previous times were very good. The commentator made mention of the 'slow pace up front' but they still ran 1:22.27! And you're our 'Caulfield Correspondent' Wadda so we're expecting a decent 'Best Bet' from you with regards to Saturday's races! There's got to be something that stands out. I'll put my tip up directly.

Not necessarily ... but if I was the GM of the Eagles I might expect some action sooner rather than later. Prepare for worst case scenario but work for an ideal solution.

I am looking at this from Foles' point of view and lets face it, in a lot of ways he gets to call the shots. He won't necessarily give a stuff what the Eagles get in return for a trade and he will probably want to maximise his dollar amount in the millions right now. With these things it is often about the money ... loyalties can please themselves. He probably won't want to take the risk of his market value plummeting.

Some good information on 'Ace High' there Wadda ... Winx looks like it will start its Autumn campaign with the Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) on March 3. Meanwhile, the final field for the C F Orr Stakes is up and it's a top-rate field assembled. I can see at least 4 or 5 genuine chances so it will be some form of multiple trifecta for me. For quaddie punters it's the 3rd leg I believe. The whole meeting is a good one though with a Group 1, three Group 2's & four Group 3's. But I'll be looking at Warwick Farm for my best bet ... I've already picked out 3 or 4 genuine hopes and will finalise my pick tomorrow night or sometime on Friday. As you and @Demon77 will know by now, I prefer the Tri's in the Group races. Here's a bit of info I've picked up about the often run 1400m races at Sha Tin ... they are nearly all truly run races and if a horse hasn't run in the 1:21's (or the low 1:22's) previously whilst carrying 55 - 59 kgs, one can often rule those horses out from winning or even running a place. Nearly all the winners in these 1400m affairs are won with fast times. I picked up another Tri there last Sunday (in one of the later races) using the above information.

As previously discussed ... the great thing about the NFL is the parity and how a team can rise quickly. But the window that opens up needs to be taken advantage of ... in the recent past we've seen some make only 1 Super Bowl and win (Packers, Ravens, Saints) whilst some others have made 1 Super Bowl and haven't won (49ers, Falcons, Panthers, Arizona, Bears) And then we have the Patriots or those that get to 2 or 3 Super Bowls in their window (Steelers 2-1 Giants 2-0 Seattle 1-2, Denver 1-1 Colts 1-1) Nothing can ever be taken for granted and the time to win multiple SB's for the Eagles is right now. I could say the same thing about the Packers with a healthy Rodgers. There's probably about 8-10 NFL clubs in the window - but only 1 team can ever win the whole thing in any given year.

Bottom line ... Foles = MVP in a Super Bowl (plus starred in an NFC Championship game) His value will depend a lot on how a perspective club views that achievement. It should also be remembered that some players do blossom late. It's as if a light goes on in the said players head. The confidence in himself that Pederson instilled in Foles could be ongoing. I'd like to see Foles given the chance to go on with it. What you get for Foles is something that is of high interest for Eagles fans.

To me a top player is worth at least 2 first round picks in the NFL ... based on the assumption that nearly half of all first round draft picks are either busts or near busts (average player) But that top player must not have too much mileage in his legs. The older the top player, the less his value in terms of picks. I've always viewed drafting as a numbers game where you play the percentages ... there's no room for silly faith, over-the-top hope or ill-founded belief systems. Busts happen and they always will - and those busts can't be predicted either. So how do we grade Foles? He's had one good year and one stellar playoff series. Is he a big occasion player like Eli or Flacco. Hard to measure that but probably. I might grade him as a 2nd rounder plus a 3rd rounder but again, the variables are there and teams will often pay overs. My gut feeling is that a first rounder will be forthcoming. But the agreed club that wants him may not have the right numbered first draft pick so it could end up being a complicated trade (if a trade happens) And Foles will want to have to go to that club if that's how the trade starts off.

The Eagles may not want to sell him but if they can't promise him opportunities they probably have to let him go ... and then Foles & the team he wants to go to are possibly in a position of strength. Foles won't want to just play for anyone. Not only is this situation unprecedented but it's also complicated.

It depends on how one views drafting ... some only want to view 'best case scenario' as if it's an exact science and busts are just team blunders. Me ... I like to keep things real. In a seller's market the Eagles could expect a first round pick. But only if it is a seller's market.

It's an auction of sorts - and one that we don't necessarily hear about. The money offered to Foles by any given team is comparable to how much that team is willing to give to the Eagles in picks and/or players. But not always. The 'Auction' price will depend on how many teams are genuinely interested and what those teams can offer the Eagles. One thing is for sure ... this is a rather unprecedented situation. And I'm still questioning that whole Garoppolo trade anyway. I don't why the Pats would leave themselves short that close to the post season when they didn't have to ... unless the Alpha male Brady wanted him out of there. They might have sold him for unders in which case a mid 2nd round draft pick (as it turned out) was not Garoppolo's true value.

And the World's worst tipster wins the post-season tipping comp again ... 3 in a row! Just don't ever ask me to tip a road team winner. Final Leaderboard in the Post Season Tipping Competition 10 - Macca 7 - Clintosaurus 6 - Go the Biff, JV7, Gorgoroth 4 - Dappa Dan Regular Season Tipping Competition Year Winner Runners up 3rd place 2017 Clintosaurus Go the Biff Dappa Dan --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016 Gorgoroth cowboy_from_hell Clintosaurus/ DeeSpencer --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2015 Gorgoroth cowboy_from_hell/ Macca JV7/ DeeSpencer --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2014 Dappa Dan DeeSpencer Gorgoroth --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2013 cowboy_from_hell/ pantaloons/ Gorgoroth Strafford Macca --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Post Season Tipping Competition Year Winner Runners up 3rd place 2017 Macca Clintosaurus Go the Biff/ JV7/ Gorgoroth --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2016 Gorgoroth/ JV7 Clintosaurus Macca --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2015 JV7/ cowboy_from_hell Gorgoroth/ Macca DeeSpencer --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2014 JV7/ pantaloons Gorgoroth/ Go the Biff Macca --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2013 titan_uranus DemonDave cowboyfhell/ Macca -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Overall Medal Tally Gold Silver Bronze Macca 3 1 3 Gorgoroth 3 0 5 JV7 2 2 1 ---------------------------------------------------- cowboy_from_hell 1 3 1 Clintosaurus 1 1 2 Go the Biff 1 1 1 Dappa Dan 1 0 1 Strafford 1 0 0 titan_uranus 1 0 0 DeeSpencer 0 2 2 pantaloons 0 2 0 DemonDave 0 1 0

You may be able to talk Foles into staying for a year but he (and his own agent) will be looking at his own value in terms of future salaries and whether that would depreciate over 12 months (especially if he doesn't play much, if at all) Regardless, he'd probably need some more millions and a longer deal (guaranteed) to satisfy. @DeeSpencer would know about the compo picks and how free agency works (would he be a restricted free agent?) I'm not completely up with it Dappa although Green Bay only ever seem to lose free agents! Your whole post was a good analysis looking at it from all sorts of angles ... as for where he could end up? Probably an AFC team as there aren't that many spots in the NFC that might be available. However ... Could he work in with Eli? The Giants are a divisional rival though How long does Brees keep going? 40 years old next season. The Bears seem to be ok with Trubisky but is that an absolute? Arizona are looking to draft a QB so there's a spot Over in the AFC there's a number of teams who could be looking at him ... Buffalo, Miami?, Jacksonville, The Jets?, Cincinnati?, Cleveland, Denver and how long does Rivers at the Chargers go on for? Even the Patriots are a remote possibility although again, Foles will almost certainly want to be a starter and he'll be offered 'Starters' money from somewhere. And a deal could happen faster than we think too ... certain teams might want to jump in early for fear of missing out. Deals are often done 'In principle' before the designated dates.

Yep, that's how I see it. Also, players want to play. It is hard to invisage a Super Bowl MVP being happy to sit on the sidelines for his next game/season.

Foles will almost certainly receive a multi year reasonably lucrative offer from elsewhere ... and the Eagles wouldn't be able to match that considering they'll have to pay Wentz big big dollars at some stage in the near future. And Foles will want to play ... why would he want to sit on the sidelines? The Eagles could be offered a decent return for Foles (a late 1st round pick or a 2nd round pick) but apart from that, they may feel morally obligated to let him go anyway (if thats how it pans out) He might stay but the Eagles are going to have to up the ante ... and again, they won't want a standoff situation with all the goodwill that has been created. Whether Foles is worth what I've indicated is irrelevant ... in sport the world over, teams will sometimes pay overs and sometimes pay unders. And this is one of those situations.

They actually played in coloured clothing back in the day - hard to believe but it's true. Navy Blue & Red I believe I've only started to appreciate the Demons flags in the last 10-15 years or so. Before that, I couldn't relate to our previous success much at all. This club we all support here has a magnificent rich history and we've twice been an absolute powerhouse of the league. Some of the more iconic names from the past are former Demons as well (Smith, Barassi et al) Looked at another way ... imagine if we'd only ever won 1 or 2 premierships in our history? Or, if we only count the AFL Flags we've never won a flag. The VFL was stupendously huge long before the AFL was ever thought of. I've also been heavily involved at local level for long periods of time and recognising the past is often mandatory ... past players are often involved for decades after they finish playing. Honour boards are dotted around the rooms & Premiership reunions happen every other year etc etc. Anyway, as far as I'm concerned, the Eagles just won their 4th Title

It's hard to believe that Foles might have played his last game for the Eagles but there's a good chance that might happen. Again, it's strictly business. If Foles is offered a 4 year deal of 60-70 million elsewhere with 40 million of it guaranteed then he has to take it as opposed to a much lesser deal that the Eagles could offer. It's a very strange situation but also a very real one. But it won't tear apart the fan base as even the most fervent of fans know how the whole system works. Welcome to the thread Col ... and congrats as well. I'm a great believer in recognising the past so this is Title no.4 for Philadelphia. As you're no doubt well aware, the Eagles were NFL Champs in '48, '49 & '60 before the Championship game was ever called the Super Bowl. Those who disagree are simply ignoring the rich history of the NFL. For instance, the NFL had it's first draft in 1936. Imagine being plucked from some obscure University and having to relocate across the other side of the US in 1936.

I tend to agree Adam ... the heavy funding can't just go on indefinitely. Decisions made by others aren't always held up years later. It's going to be very difficult for either of the 2 new teams to turn a profit. Every year more revenues need to be had and the 2 teams may well be always playing catch-up. And if the AFL's revenues drop away a bit the pressure might come to bear ... not for a while yet though for the reasons others have outlined (above) Regardless, it will be interesting to see the levels of funding in 7 or 8 years time - until then they're safe you'd think. I'd say in 7 or 8 years any club will need revenues of at least 65-70 million (or more) I think we're sitting at about 52 million right now and we're just in the black by a million or so. It takes a fair whack of money just to break even.

We received a 1.4 million grant in 2013 and that's about it. I've challenged those who disagree to put up or shut up and they've offered nothing. Compare that to the ongoing tens of millions of dollars being thrown at the Suns & Giants. The Giants are also highly dependent on AFL funding despite being more successful on the field than the Suns. And that ongoing funding will need to continue for a long time yet (for both the 2 new teams) It's not something that is highlighted by our media either - the story doesn't sell and the media are happy to toe the party line anyway.

The whole New England set-up moving forward is fascinating. I'm not sure that there's another job elsewhere for Belichick and I doubt he'd retire from football completely. He may entertain the thought of taking another role like Coughlin has. What we do know is that the Pats haven't got a replacement for Brady in place and they are about to lose their offensive & defensive coordinators. Trading Garoppolo still seems like a questionable move even taking into account how well Brady is playing. However, teams always find it difficult to pay an in-demand 2nd string QB enough money. Belichick almost certainly stays but it could be an uneasy alliance.

Yep, that's how good they are. Dappa picked this type of scoreline but I couldn't see it ... both teams came into the game with renowned defenses. In the recent past at least. That sack/fumble was the only sack of the entire game ... and Brandon Graham had the wherewithal to get a hand in there and strip the ball. There were other huge moments in the game but it's those telling moments at the end of these types of games that gets remembered. The other big story was the Pats not starting Malcolm Butler as a CB - his replacement Eric Dunn was apparently targeted and as a result, often beaten in one-on-ones. Did Belichick make a fatal error? Bill doesn't make errors does he?

So with just over 2 minutes to go and the Pats have the ball ready for a final drive ... 5 points down and who wasn't thinking that New England were going to march down and win the game? I know I was. And then 'It' happened ... the sack/fumble which ends up with the Eagles scoring a field goal and with it, an 8 point lead. But it still wasn't over because this is the New England Patriots and they are never beaten. That final 'Hail-Mary' was very nearly caught - they get that and the 2 point conversion is a soda and it's a tied game. And who wins in overtime? It's was a Super Bowl to be remembered and the Eagles had to play an incredible offensive game to win it. It's just an amazing sport in terms of all the permutations.