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Everything posted by Macca
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When t20 first appeared many wanted that version of cricket 'tweaked' but there has been no change from the original format. AFLX might get tweaked a bit but there again what we're seeing is perhaps how it will remain. I tend to think that this original version is what it will be. I also think that too many are viewing the whole exercise in too serious a manner ... it's still Summer/February, it's a quiet time of the year for sport and the players are not getting smashed about (as they will for the other 6 months of the season proper)
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I said right from the start that this version of the sport is aimed at the millennials much like t20 cricket is - and what is wrong with that? The AFL would have known that CA has its eye on February for more Big Bash games so they've made a move of their own. And it will be family friendly too - another plus. Dislike it all you like rjay but you are not really part of the target audience. Neither am I for that matter. If only 20 - 25% of footy fans gravitate towards this version of the sport it will be a winner. AFLX doesn't need all footy fans on board.
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Many Test cricket fans would vehemently disagree with your opening sentence. However, the prejudice that Test cricket fans have with t20 cricket is ill-founded anyway. And this is coming from someone who's first love is Test cricket - and I don't watch the t20's. Again, I neither hate t20's nor do I see it as a threat to Test cricket. AFL fans should view AFLX in the same way ... it is not a threat nor will it ever be a threat. We don't have a lot of sport going on in February so AFLX fills a void. And no one is compelled to watch it either.
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In my belief AFLX is not trying to be a mini version of AFL ... it's a 'Different' version. Much like t20 is a different version of cricket. Having said that I'd make it 8 or 9 a side, dispense with the behinds and bring the goal posts closer together by a metre or 2. That wouild make it harder to score and more of a contest. It's a bit too bruise free but I still don't mind it for a number of other reasons.
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You are right in many ways Hemingway but that's progress. Impossible to ignore too. Dealing with it all or not dealing with it all becomes an irrelevancy (as individuals) Related is popular opinion ... often hard to predict or even understand but always a very real thing. T20 had the support of India and its huge population so it was/is always going to succeed. Where AFLX goes is anyone's guess but my gut feeling is that it will be popular enough to be a going concern ... although I could be wrong
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I had a bit of trouble too Wadda ... that's why I ended up at Morphettville. I looked through 5 meetings (Flemington, Randwick, Ascot, Morphettville & Doomben) and could only find 3 horses that I was quite confident with. I'm taking the attitude that I have to feel really sure about a best bet ... I found another 5 or 6 that I classed as probably/maybe but again, if there's too much doubt I move to the next race. By the way, I got verified (immediately) at Sportsbet.com but only after I made a small deposit. I'll test the water this weekend but the odds already look better (and sportsbet has an odds booster facility)
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I agree but I've trained my eyes (already) to block all that nonsense out. I'm watching the players and the ball only J5.
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I reckon it's quite good ... the gaudy advertising needs to go though (or at least severely reduced) It's entertaining, the skills are great, the game is open, the rectangle is irrelevant (this version of the game is going to be played in the corridor) Long kicks, play on at all costs. I'd tweak a few areas to make this version more of a contest - maybe 9 a side could achieve that.
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And that quiet confidence was rewarded GV That 2 - 2 result is like a win because unless there is another 2 - 2 result, Juve will need to win at Wembley. Or find a way to score at least 2 goals. It should be a cracker of a 2nd leg. Meanwhile, Man City just keep marching on (albeit against inferior opposition)
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I'm going super early with my best bet ... Morphettville Race 4 No 2 Stellar Collision (currently $2.70) 2 starts back finished a length & 3/4 (3rd) to Thronum in the Australia Stakes and this race is much easier. Before that won the listed Christmas Stakes at Caulfield. And the horse is trained by Darren Weir
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Being a punter who prefers to outlay small amounts for a reasonable return I'm looking at using our Best bets in various ways (with the end result being a series of 3 pick multi's) Up until now I've usually been a trifecta/first4 punter but I'll give the best bet multi system a go for now and save my trifecta combo's for Sha Tin (there are 4 x 1400m races listed for next Sunday - ideal) As for Flemington, Randwick et al ... the fields, form and barriers should be up on Racenet.com by tomorrow night so I'll be getting an early start as usual!
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I do like the idea of an each-way special as well D77 ... your other thoughts are very good too. I will be looking for some other top fancies to couple up with 1, 2 or 3 of our best bets so I suppose we shouldn't be thinking of any restrictions. I also like the idea of looking outside of Melboune & Sydney. For instance, any of the better Hayes horses running at Morphettville are always worth keeping an eye on. 2 of the Hayes horses won at short odds on Saturday (2.30 & 2.45) but those odds are not prohibitive in a multi. In fact 5 short priced favourites won in Adelaide but apart from Itz Invincible the other 4 started at 2.30, 2.40. 3.00 & 3.60. The last 4 winners at the Gold Coast on Saturday were short priced favourites as well (2.10, 2.60, 2.70 & 2.80) Back in the day those odds weren't much value to punters but not necessarily these days with multi-betting across the various race meetings. And by the way ... are any of the other horses going to be able to get anywhere near Redzel in the Lightning Stakes?
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@binman @Wadda We Sing @Demon77 Some more thoughts on the format of our best bets Is 3 the right number or 4? I'm leaning towards 4 although we could make it 3 and then limit it to 3 on a first in, best dressed basis. The same rule could be had if we want to limit it to 4 (which is my preferred maximum) Again, first in, best dressed and once we have 4 best bets that's it for the weekend. Or we could leave it open for more picks ... of course if we end up with 5 or more best bets which one's get prioritised? In summary ... I'm happy to go with 3 or 4 but any more than that becomes a bit unworkable in my eyes.
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The reality is that working as a group is the way to go. 4 sets of eyes has to work better than 1 set of eyes Wadda. For instance, I'm prepared to go to SA, WA or Qld to find that Best Bet. It paid off in the just completed weekend with binman's standout pick out of Morphettville. As stated in a previous post, I'm looking at ways of getting some collects out of a 2 from 4 outcome. Even those series of very small bets I've got in mind can pay ok (in a treble)
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My favoured form of betting outside of the horses is of all things - Rugby Union (specifically Super Rugby but sometimes the Internationals) ... but definitely not Rugby League. I'm not bad at the NBA but find MLB, NHL & the NFL very difficult. And I'm no good at all with the AFL. Soccer - no good. I usually quiz mates for their weekend 'Special' and most people I know have one sport that they're adept at finding a winner in. Counting the first week we're sitting at 6 from 7 with one runners-up. That is not a bad start Wadda. Australian Group & Listed Races
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Wadda you've given me a solution for what to do with any of the 6 available doubles within our 4 best bets (AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD) Couple any of those doubles up with 1 other separate selection in any amount of other sports (like the AFLW) or 1 other fancied horse (apart from the 4 best bets) I'm talking very small outlays of 2 or 3 dollars. So if we end up with 2 from 4 (which will happen at some stage) one can still have at least 1 live treble or in fact a number of multiple trebles that are still alive. If any 3 of the 4 win like what happened last Saturday then that would mean that 3 of the 6 available doubles will have got up and/or would still be alive with another selection (or 2) I'm thinking of ditching my trifecta/first4 thinking (Sha Tin on a Sunday aside ) and going more for straight out selections with a series of trebles based around our 4 best bets.
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There are times (no pun intended) where I will often disregard the times run by a horse. e.g. If a horse has previously run fast times carrying a low weight but is stepping up to Group racing and will thus carry 5 or 6 more kgs.
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I don't expect anyone to necessarily agree with me with regards to measuring times ... but my view on times is extremely complcated taking into account different tracks, weights, the tempo of certain races and a heap of other factors. As I said, each to their own as there is no absolute way. A great example with regards to times is Winx ... the horse runs extremely fast times in its victories (primarily) And the other horses simply can't keep up. But of course there is also the will to win factor and numerous other factors ... 'times' like anything else is just a guide and not the be all and end all. For some the times matter and for others they don't
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A lot of punters don't bother with times but I'm baffled as to why that is ... however I am times specific. Caulfield & Moonee Valley times are often very difficult to work out but it's virtually the opposite at Fkemington, Rosehill, Randwick, Sha Tin & Ascot. Times and weighrs can be compared at those tracks. And I add a second to a second and and a half off all Morphettville times. That track is a fast track as far as I'm concerned. But each to their own . . we all read the form differently and that is a good thing. Reading the form isn't easy but nor should anyone expect it to be easy. By the way 1 second equates to 16/17 metres. I kg is a length or a length and a half (according to the experts) Edit: Add a second or a second and a half to Morphettville times (not take off)
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The form from the Orr Stakes will be tricky because of the very slow time they ran (1:24.79) Anything could have won it as it waa a blanket finish and only 3 or 4 lengths covered the entire field I am big on times & weights specifically for WFA races or Set Weight races so I much prefer racetracks where the races are truly run. Caulfield is not a favourite binman!
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It was a dull first half and then the Gunners looked like they didn't want to be there. As you said, Tottenham could have easily scored 3 or 4 goals. Arsenal look like they might be putting all their efforts into the Europa League. They might win it too and thus find another way into the Champions League (although they would want to avoid Napoli, Dortmund & Atletico Madrid!) As for the CL knockout fixtures, there's 4 big match-ups (Juve/Spurs, Real Madrid/PSG, Sevilla/Man Utd & Chelsea/Barca) that I'll be tuning into. All played on different days too. That is great scheduling for the neutrals. Juventus are in fine form so your lads will be in for a tough 2 games (Juve have only conceded 1 goal since Nov 20) Good luck GV!
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February is Oscar's movie month (The Academy Awards is on Sunday March 4th) Usually manage to work my way through to seeing most (or all) of the movies up for Best Picture by the time the Awards night is on. Only seen 3 of the films so far which is a little unusual but will have seen a few more within a week or so. Here are the 9 films up for best picture ... Call Me by Your Name (Drama, Romance) Darkest Hour (Biography, Drama, History) 8/10 Dunkirk (Action, Drama, History) 9/10 Get Out (Horror, Mystery, Thriller 7.5/10 Lady Bird (Comedy, Drama) Phantom Thread (Drama, Romance) The Post (Biography, Drama, History) The Shape of Water (Adventure, Drama, Fantasy) Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri (Crime, Drama)
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Yes @Demon77 Of our 4 best bets yesterday 3 of the horses were $2 chances and that won't always be the case ... so hedging on the treble within the 4 pick multi could well offer much better odds. Yesterday I put a little extra on the 3 leg multi that got up ... it was paying $8 as opposed to the other 3 combinations all paying around about $13. Thus, I ended up doubling my total outlay (which also included a bet on the 4 pick multi) If for instance our 4 picks next week (if all participate) are showing fixed dividends of say 2.20, 2.70, 3.20 & 3.50 then the trebles would pay as follows ... $19, $21, $25 & $30. And the pick 4 multi would pay $66. The above is just my way of doing things ... I thought we'd possibly get 4 best bets (or more) so that was my contingency plan ... others can do with the picks what they want.
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We were close to winning quite a bit of money (or at least I was) ... you've got to take the good with the bad when betting. Itz Invincible nearly got pipped so those who did the 3 from 4 multi's got a bit lucky (myself included) Watch for Tosen Stardom to bounce back - the commentator called it last but there were 4 horses behind it on the line in a blanket finish. Only about 4 lengths covered the entire finish and Tosem Stardom wasn't that far off the winner. The wide draw and the fact that is was 3 or 4 wide for the entire race made winning the race a very difficult assignment for the horse. I wasn't on it yesterday but @Wadda We Sing & @binman were both circumspect about its chances anyway. One to watch and the odds might be attractive for its next run (The Futurity Stakes Feb 24 and/or the Australian Cup March 10?) Australian Group & Listed Races
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Just for a bit of future historical purposes I'm going to try and post up the replays of the Group 1 Races (both here & overseas) Those new to the thread can peruse through and watch some replays of some great Group racing whilst the resident posters can scroll back whenever we wish to do so. We'll start things off with yesterday's C F Orr Stakes (2018) ...